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World Car Trends 2014 “Smart Efficiency and Digital Intelligence”
New York, April 2014
World Car Trends 2014
Global Expert Community Global Media Trends
69 Top Automotive Journalists TV, Print, Online News Channels
All World Car Jurors Blogs, Forums, Networks Social Channels
Top 25 markets Countries
All automotive brands [> 150] and models Brands
World Car Trends 2014 | Summary
3
IntroductionThe World Car Awards brings together top journalistsfrom all over the world. PRIME Research combines theexpertise of this panel with our industry-leading mediastudy on over 150 brands across 25 markets globally.
Automotive Trends 2014Efficiency, lightweight materials, design, connectivity andnew energy powertrains are the most importantautomotive trends for 2014. These trends form part of abigger picture within the automotive industry, “theefficiency cluster” which we at PRIME call “SmartEfficiency”.
“Smart Efficiency”Smart Efficiency is driven by a variety of relatedtechnologies like the downsizing of engines, whileimproving power and performance, significant weightreduction and more stability, improved aerodynamicswhile increasing desirability and new energypowertrains; particularly plug-in hybrids.
Lightweight ConstructionsLightweight materials are currently in the spotlight. Oncereserved for premium cars, the Ford F150 has broughtaluminium to the mass market, and the BMW i3 haspositioned carbon fibre as a material manageable andsuitable for premium cars.
The Electric Vehicle Recession?After the hype in 2012, Electric vehicles are currentlylosing some momentum.
Plug-in hybrids are seen as the most promising electricdrivetrain option for 2014, however the onset ofpremium electric vehicles driven by the BMW i3 andTesla Model S bring electric vehicles back into thespotlight. Coverage around these two models accountsfor over 40% of all media coverage on electricvehicles. Our expert community evaluates these twomodels far better than first and second generation EVs.
“Digital Intelligence”Connectivity and in-car electronics rank as the fourthmost important trend, with infotainment andconnectivity systems seen as increasingly significant.Digital intelligence is describing a major macro trend ofthe years to come. Tech giants such as Apple, Google &Microsoft have now joined the game: teaming up withautomotive brands to create the next generation ofdigital cars.
“Smart Efficiency” and “Digital Intelligence” represent keytrends in the industry for 2014. Utilising these trends isthe challenge for the automotive industry today and inthe near future.
Content
1. Top Automotive Trends
2. New Energy Cars
3. The “Digital Car“
5
Top 5 Trends 2014
Efficiency
Lightweight Materials
Design
Connectivity
New Energy Cars
Quality
Safety
Budget Cars
Car Sharing
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
?
Efficiency is the top trend in 2014
The current “efficiency cluster“ is driven by downsizing of engines, lightweight constructions, improvedaerodynamics and plug-in hybrids.
“What will be the most important trends in the automotive industry in 2014?”
Plug-in Hybrids Battery Electric Vehicles Fuel Cell
5
4
3
2
1
6
Efficiency Connectivity Efficiency
Connectivity EfficiencyLightweight Materials
New Energy Cars
New Energy Cars
Design
Design Design Connectivity
Budget CarsLightweightMaterials
New EnergyCars
Safety Budget Cars Quality
Quality Quality Safety
Lightweight Materials
Safety Budget Cars
Car Sharing Car Sharing Car Sharing
0% 10% 20% 30% 0% 10% 20% 30%
2012 2013
0% 10% 20% 30%
2014
?
Lightweight is the top emerging trend in 2014
The importance of lightweight constructions and materials has been on the increase since 2012.
“What will be the most important trends in the automotive industry in 2012 / 2013 / 2014?”
8
5
2
7
Downsizing of Engines / Powertrains
The actual downsizing of an engine for weightreduction is seen as the most promising technology to save weight.
AluminiumThe new Ford F-150 shifts the image of aluminiumfrom a rather exclusive to a more volumematerial for weight-saving.
Material-MixClever material mix is seen as a very promising option for weight saving.
Carbon Fibre
The BMW i3 could change the perception of carbon fibre: from an expensive and exclusive to an affordable, mass-market material for weight-saving.
High Strength Steel
High strength steels are still evaluated very positively, but are seen due to the already wideuse within the industry as a kind of maxed out option for weight saving.
0 1 2 3
very goodmixed
?
Engine downsizing is seen as the most promising weight saver
Two important shifts in perception – the Ford F150 for aluminium and the BMW i3 for carbon fibre.
“From your point of view, what are the most promising lightweight technologies?”
2014Expert Panel
good
Content
1. Top Automotive Trends
2. New Energy Cars
3. The “Digital Car“
9
Efficiency Connectivity Efficiency
Connectivity EfficiencyLightweightMaterials
New Energy Cars
New Energy Cars
Design
Design Design Connectivity
Budget CarsLightweight Materials
New EnergyCars
Safety Budget Cars Quality
Quality Quality Safety
Lightweight Materials
Safety Budget Cars
Car Sharing Car Sharing Car Sharing
0% 10% 20% 30% 0% 10% 20% 30%
2012 2013
0% 10% 20% 30%
2014
?
Electric vehicle recession?
After the hype in 2012, electric vehicles finally arrived in ”reality“ – but electric vehicles are still among the top 5 most important trends within the industry.
“What will be the most important trends in the automotive industry in 2012 / 2013 / 2014?”
3 3
5
10
Visibility of EVs is pushed by Tesla Model S and BMW i3
Out of more than 250 EV models in 2013-2014, the Tesla Model S and BMW i3 combined account for more than 40% of all coverage. Almost every second electric vehicle story is about either one of them.
2,0%
2,9%
4,8%5,1%
4,6%4,8% 4,8%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
100% = Total automotive media coverage in respective year
Media Panel | Share of coverage
Emerging Trend Hype SlowdownTesla and BMW igame changer? Other EVs
58.3%
BMW i321.3%
Tesla Model S20.4%
2013-2014
100% = Total e-car coverage in 2013/2014
42%
100% = Total electric vehicle coverage in 2013/2014
11
► But safety issues remain.
► New momentum through premium electric vehicles.
Plug-in hybrids
Electric vehicles withrange extender
Battery electric vehicles
Fuel cell vehicles
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
very poor very goodmixed
?
PHEVs remain the most promising electric drivetrain option
However, BEV are experiencing a new momentum through premium electric vehicles.
“From your point of view, what are the most promising powertrain options regarding e-mobility?”
2014Expert Panel
2013Expert Panel
Is the Tesla Model S a game changer? Combining zero emissions with a good range and breathtaking sports car performance.
2013 20143
12
“Compromised“ electric vehicles
Premium electric vehiclesTesla Model S
BMW i3
Second generationand compactelectric vehicles
First Generation and low budgetelectric vehicles
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
?
Tesla and BMW with outstanding EV reputation
BEV gain credit in 2014 due to i3 and Tesla Model S – Premium electric vehicles might be the game changer in the future.
“How would you rate the following e-cars from a general perspective?”
2014Expert Panel
very poor very goodmixed
2
1
13
Norway: Tesla achieves an 11% market share in March ‘14
Exponential growth of EVs in Norway; especially the Tesla Models S due to generous government subsidiaries.
› EVs in Norway achieved a 5.6% market share in 2013.
› No purchase tax, no VAT, no tolls are making EVs very attractive.
› Free and extra parking areas for EVs.
› EV infrastructure.
› Clean Norwegian energy production.
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Electric vehicles registration figures in Norway
14
Norway
Japan
Germany
USA
France
UK
China
Italy
Spain
very poor very goodmixed
?
Norway with pioneering character regarding E-Mobility
The former benchmark market for E-Mobility, Japan, slightly loses the confidence of the expert community and remains on one level with Germany and the USA.
“Which markets will be the key drivers for e-mobility?”
2014Expert Panel
2013Expert Panel
The Tesla factor› Supercharger
infrastructure› Plans for
batterygigafactory
Ambitious plans, limited momentum› 5 million e-cars in
2020› New joint-venture
brands arrive› Denza› Zinoro
15
Fuel-Cell with chances in the long run
In the last 10 years, Honda showed the strongest ambitions of all manufacturers regarding fuel cell technology, followed by Hyundai/Kia and Mercedes-Benz.
0,5%
0,4%
0,6%0,6%
0,5%
0,1%
0,3%
0,1%
0,3%
0,3%
0,0%
0,2%
0,4%
0,6%
0,8%
1,0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fuel-Cell “Hype“ periodMost major manufacturers focus on FCEV as battery technology is not improving fast enough and the range issue as well as high costs are thought hard to be solved.
Attention-shift to BEVFirst volume BEV appear on themarket and the BEV hype begins. Manufacturers shift their focus on battery electric vehicles rather thancontinuing their FCEV strategy.
100% = all automotive coverage in respective year
Re-Focus on FCEVEspecially Hyundai/Kia continues tofocus on FCEV and in 2014 announcements of affordable FCEV in series strongly increase.
Comeback as “Next Generation EV“?FCEV in series (announcements): Hyundai/Kia: 2014 | Toyota: 2015 | Honda: 2016 | Daimler: 2017
Content
1. Top Automotive Trends
2. New Energy Cars
3. The “Digital Car“
17
Connectivity is already a key factor in evaluating a car
For 71% of automotive journalists, connectivity already is or is quickly becoming a key factor in evaluating a car.
? 2013 Expert Panel: “Is connectivity a key factor in evaluating a car?”
“Yes, as it becomes a priority for young buyers.”
“It is becoming a key factor, because younger people do not care aboutpowertrains, maximum speed and emotional driving anymore.”
“Not yet but is going to grow once they sort out the basics.”
“No. Ease of use is, but connectivity is not critical. It's also very difficult to
communicate, given that average readers just want to know if they can plug the
phone in or not.”
Already[29%]
Increasingly[42%]
Not yet[17%]
No[12%]
18
In-car electronics and connectivity are increasingly important
Exponential increase of media attention to in-car electronics and connectivity.
0,1% 0,1%0,2%
0,1% 0,2%
1,5% 1,5%
3,9%
6,4%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Media Panel | Share of coverage
100% = all coverage about “product strategy“ in respective year
In-car electronics play an increasinglyimportant role within the product
strategy.
Internet-basedInfotainment Systems
Driver Assistance
Navigation
Communication
0% 20% 40% 60%
Top Connectivity Trends
? 2013 expert panel: What will be the most important connectivity trends in the automotive industry in 2013?”
2013Expert Panel
19
The “digital” car | > 100 million lines of code
Cars are no longer only hardware, they are also software products. Cars already have more lines of code than aircrafts and operating systems like Windows 8 or Apple Tiger.
0
10.000.000
20.000.000
30.000.000
40.000.000
50.000.000
60.000.000
70.000.000
80.000.000
90.000.000
100.000.000
F35 Fighter Jet
Boeing 787
US Military Drone
F22 Raptor Fighter Jet
Space Shuttle
Car Software and its
“lines of code”
of average modern
high-end-car
20
“Fiat spent years betting on the wrong Microsoft horse.”
The Ford Sync system is also far away from being benchmark:
“Ford, with its hopeless voice command system, small screens and convoluted programming if you can't get the voice commands to work.”
?
Silicon Valley is moving in on the car industry
Google is clearly seen as the key driver for the “digital car”. Apple and Microsoft are seen as more conservative.
0 1 2 3
pro-active/aggressivepassive/conservative
“Which IT companies will be the key drivers for the “digital car”?”
2014Expert Panel
21?
Autonomous driving wins credit in 2014
Overall, safety related driver assistance systems are evaluated much more positively than comfort features.
Brake Assist Systems
Pre-Crash Systems
Intelligent Lights
Pedestrian Detection
Blind Spot Detection
Adaptive Cruise Control
Automated Crash Reporting
Traffic Sign Recognition
Attention Assist
Nightvision Systems
Lane Keeping Systems
Park Assist
Autonomous Driving
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
not important at all very importantmixed
“How important and desirable are the following ‘Advanced Driver Assistance’ features from your point of view?”
2014Expert Panel
2013Expert Panel
22?
Autonomous cars are expected within the next 5 years
The world car experts are anticipating autonomous cars in series production within the next five years.
“When do you expect to see fully autonomous driving cars in series production?”
5 Years
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
23
USA, Germany and Japan are clearlyseen as the key markets for autonomous driving.
?
Key markets for autonomous driving are USA, Germany, Japan
Due to high costs and the need for infrastructure, autonomous driving will be strongly pushed by the mostdeveloped car markets.
USA
Germany
Japan
UK
France
China
Italy
Spain
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
reluctant pro-active/aggressivepassive/conservative
“Which markets will be the key drivers for autonomous driving?”
2014Expert Panel
24
Legislation (on federal & national level)
Infrastructure Investments
Industry standards for Car-to-Car and Car-to-X communications
Consumer Acceptance
Integrity of Technology
New Business Models & Scenarios
Automotive Ecosystem (new players)
0 1 2 3
mixed very importantimportant
Challenges to autonomous driving
Legislation is seen as the biggest challenge to autonomous driving, closely followed by infrastructure and industry standards for Car-to-Car and Car-to-X communications.
? “How important are the following challenges enabling autonomous driving from your point of view?”
2014Expert Panel
25
Safety is the key to consumer acceptance of autonomousdriving.
?
Safety is key to consumer acceptance of autonomous driving
However, extra costs are seen as the second most important factor to clear the way for autonomous cars.
Safety / crash elimination
Extra cost
Reduced travel times
Comfort
Increased productivity (work while driving)
Data protection
Improved energy efficiency
Reduced need for new infrastructure
New models of vehicle ownership (e.g. car sharing)
0 1 2 3
very importantmixed
“How important are the following factors from your point of view regarding the consumer acceptance of autonomous driving?”
2014Expert Panel
City motorists in Europe and the US waste Ø 60-80 hoursper year in congestion.
important
Dr. Rainer Mathes
PRIME Research
Chairman
Bernd Hitzemann
PRIME Research
Project Director
Jens Meiners
World Car Awards
Director Steering Committee World Car Awards
PRIME Ann Arbor (USA)
PRIME New York (USA)
PRIME Montevideo (Uruguay)
PRIME São Paulo (Brazil)
PRIME Shanghai (China)
PRIME Delhi-Gurgaon (India)
PRIME Oxford (UK)
PRIME Mainz (Germany)
PRIME Zurich (Switzerland)
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