World Climate Research Programme_25 Years of Science Serving Society

8/3/2019 World Climate Research Programme_25 Years of Science Serving Society

1/24WMO

World ClimateResearch Programme:

25 years of scienceserving society


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2005, World Meteorological Organization

NOTE

The designations employed and the presentation of m aterial in this publicationdo not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of theSecretariat of the World Meteorological Organization concerning the legalstatus of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorit ies, or concerningthe delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.


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Foreword

Understanding clim ate and its change represents one of the most difficultchallenges to m odern science because of the complexity of physical,chemical and biological interactions occurring on the Earth in itsatmosphere, oceans and on land at the w idest range of space andtimescales. Through the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), theWorld M eteorological Organization (WMO), the International Council fo rScience (ICSU) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC)of the Uni ted Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization(UNESCO) have joined efforts to support and coordinate the activities of theglobal meteorological and oceanographic communities and the wideracademic comm unity to address this challenge.

The WCRP, in the 25 years since it w as establi shed, has made enorm ouscontribu tions to advancing climate science. As a result of WCRP efforts, it isnow possible for climate science to monito r, simulate and pro ject globalclimate w ith unprecedented accuracy so that climate information can be usedfor governance, in decision-making and for support of a wide range ofpractical applications. At the same tim e, there are still m any gaps in ourknowledge, and much better and more detailed clim ate system observations,models, assessments and services are required. The Joint ScientificCom mittee for t he WCRP, in collaboration w ith the WCRP pro jects and thelarger scientific comm unity, is developing a strategy for the next decadewh ich wi ll ensure that WCRP works efficiently and effectively tow ards

strengthening our knowledge and increasing our capabilities with regard toclimate variability and change and their prediction. This strategy, known asCoordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System (COPES), willfacilitate the analysis and prediction o f the Earth system variability andchange for use in an increasing range of appl ications of di rect relevance,benefit and value to society. I am confident that in this way the WCRP wi llcontinue to make a significant contribution to the understanding andgovernance of the Earth.

P. Lem keChairperson

Joint Scientific Comm ittee for the WCRP

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WCRP at the forefront ofclimate science since 1980

The main objectives, set for WCRP at its inception and still valid, are todetermine the predictability of climate and to determine the effect of humanactivit ies on climate.

To achieve these objectives, WCRP adopts a multidisciplinary approach andorganizes large-scale, observational and m odelling projects, each of wh ichfocuses on aspects of clim ate too large and complex to be addressed by anyone nation or individual scientific discipline.

Three major WCRP projects have been successfully completed in the lastdecade. The Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) project

(19851994) established the physical basis for the understanding andprediction of El Niotemperature signals and associated changes in globalclimate. This led to a major breakthrough in operational seasonal clim ateforecasting. The World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) (19822002),the biggest and m ost successful global ocean research prog ramm e to date,collected observations of the worlds oceans of unprecedented quality andcoverage and led to the development of important new ocean observingtechniques and im proved understanding of physical processes in the ocean.The Arcti c Clim ate System Study (ACSYS) (19942003) examined thecomplex and interrelated pieces of the Arctic climate system to ascertain itsrole in the global climate system.

WCRP research over the years has greatly improved our understanding ofkey climate processes and a vigorous modelling programm e has resulted insignificantly im proved clim ate models, as well as better operational w eatherand ocean forecasting m odels. Improved m odelling of the climate systemhas provided increasingly accurate simulation and predictions of naturalclimate variations, giving more confidence in projections of human-inducedclimate change. WCRP research has provided the scientific underpinning foreach of the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) that, in turn, contribute to the pol itical process related to climatechange.

Comprehensive field m easurements andthe provision of essential global and

regional clim atological data sets aremajor components of all WCRP projects.Some of these, such as the observingsystem in the Pacific established byTOGA and the global array of subsurfacefloats implemented du ring WOCE, haveled to operational climate observingactivities which are crucial to monitoringand predicting climate.

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cean sections occupied

uring WOCE.


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Today the WCRP consists of four major core projects:

The Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) project; The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX); The Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) pro ject; The Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) project

and the co-sponsored Surface Ocean-Lower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS).

WCRP building awareness of climatechange and related risks

It was the international community o f physical climate scientists that alertedthe world to the reality of global w arming, the prospect of anthropogenicclimate change and its consequences. It is th is same comm unity that hasdetermined the most likely causes of the recent global climate change andwh ich has the capability to provide increasingly reliable climate-changescenarios, which are crucial for many aspects related to planning fo rsustainable development. WCRP has helped bring such climate-related issuesto centre-stage by carrying out policy-relevant science and by raising the

level of scientific, governmental and public appreciation to the importance ofclimate issues. This has been done through fostering much greatercooperation between hitherto distinct scientific disciplines in understandingthe whole climate system.

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Climate changemay well be thegreatest challengethat your generationwi ll have to face. This is not somedistant, worst-casescenario. It istomorrows forecast.Nor is this sciencefiction. It is sober

prediction, based onthe best availablescience.Kofi Annan,

Secretary-General of the

United Nations

Keynote address at Tufts

University Fletcher School

of Law and Diplom acy,

20 May 2001.

Climate models with only

natural forcings

(volcanic and solar) do notreproduce observed late

twentieth century

warming. When increases

in anthropogenic

greenhouse gases and

sulphate aerosols are

included, models are able

to reproduce the observed

warming.

C

G.A.

Meehl


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Enabling more useful climatepredictions

Climate predictions seasons inadvance now a reality

The WCRP TOGA project established the physical basis for predicting El Niotemperature signals and associated changes in the global atmosphericcirculation from a season up to a year in advance. This was a majorbreakthrough in the abilit y to make skilful forecasts of seasonal climatesignals. The current WCRP activities are aimed at increasing the reliability of

El Nio/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event predictions and also extendingpredictive potential towards m id- and polar latitudes. The objective is toreveal all predictable features at the global and regional scales.

Monsoon rains a source of life canwe predict them?

Over half of the w orlds population lives within the influence of the Asianmonsoon and a further large fraction lives within the monsoon areas ofAfrica and the Americas. Forecasting monsoons, their onsets, breaks andduration, remains a very difficult scientific problem due to the complexities

of the interactions involved. Advances in simulation of clouds and radiation,progress in assimilation of humidity and temperature data sets, better cloud-resolving schemes and several other factors have set the stage for WCRP toconcentrate efforts on improving the monsoon prediction capabilities.

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Three-dimensional output

from a coupled

atmosphere-ocean

simulation of conditionsver the equatorial Pacific

region.

Cloud water

Ocean temperature (Colour)

Ocean current (Arrows)

Cold Warm

Ea

rthSimulatorCenter/JAMSTEC


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In the North A tlantic, the changes to the patterns and intensity of the stormtracks associated w ith changes in the strength o f the so-called North AtlanticOscillation can result in periods of severe winter storm iness wi th potentialdamage to property and loss of life. The changes in annual rainfall in theAfrican Sahel on decadal and longer timescales and the dust bow l years ofthe 1930s in the United States are other examples of how longer termvariations of clim ate affect the life support systems. On much longertimescales, the cycles of glacial (ice age) and interglacial periods (such as weare in now) demonstrate the very long-term variability o f climate. RecentWCRP studies have indicated that there is som e potential predictability onlonger tim escales; this avenue of research is being vigorously pursued.

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Contributing to risk assessment

There are inherent lim its to w eather and climate predictability.Research w ill not alw ays reduce the uncertainty associated w ith aforecast, but it can help to clarify the probability of a certain situation tooccur. This inform ation can be a very useful input to a broader riskmanagement strategy. A recent m ajor breakthrough has been the useof multimodel ensemble forecasting systems to give probabilistic risk

forecasts of climate events and associated phenomena, such asoccurrences of disease outbreak, heat waves, increased precipitation ordrought conditions.

The Rio de la Plata basin

in South America is the

source of about 70 per

cent of the gross national

product of the five

countries within the basin.

A WCRP project is being

developed to investigate

the climatology and

hydrology of the Plata

basin with the aim to

provide information andproducts that can help

decision and policy

makers manage better the

regional resources.

Rio de la

Plata basin

Long-term climate variability can it bepredicted?


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Narrowing the uncertaintiesregarding human-inducedclimate change

There is widespread concern and convincing evidence that human activit ies,through burning of fossil fuels and land use and cover changes such aslarge-scale deforestation, are affecting global and local climates, causingmajor environmental changes. Use of fossil fuels for energy generation andtransport lies at the very foundation of our modern society and can beexpected to increase substantially in the future. The need to form nationaland international policies on matters related to anthropogenic climatechange has emphasized the need for a better understanding of, and abili ty tomodel, the climate system. It also calls for effective detection and attributionof clim ate change.

Making projections of future climateNarrowing down the uncertainties of the future long-term climate projectionsas well as the overall spread of the predictions is of highest prio rity f orWCRP. WCRP research is targeted at better understanding physical processeswhich characterize the biggest uncertainties.

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Variations of the Earths

surface temperature fo r

the past 1 000 years and

arious model projections

for the next 100.

Departuresintem

perature(C)fromt

he19611990average

IPCC


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WCRP results feed directly into major scientific assessments such as thereports o f the WM O/United Nations Environm ent Programm e (UNEP) IPCC.In turn, the IPCC assessments provide the authoritative, up-to-date scientificadvice needed to contribute to the United Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change. They also reveal the gaps in our knowledge and serve as astimulus for further development of the WCRP science.

Detection and attribution

One of the crucial issues for climate science is

understanding how much of the observedclimate changes can be attributed to naturalvariability and how much to human activities.The approach of the WCRP is twofold. Itincludes support to climate observingsystems to determine quantitatively thechanges that occurred in the past ( palaeoobservations) and are happening at presentand an extensive strategy for developing andusing the models and analytical tools that canreproduce the observed changes and, wherepossible, reveal their causes.

Regional effects

Projected climate change is uneven around theglobe. WCRP is developing techniques todownscale global model outputs to tell us what will happen to the climate atthe regional level.

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Climate extremes are theyincreasing?

To m any people it seems like extremeclimate events like typhoons, heat w avesand floods have been on the increaselately. WCRP is collaborating w ith WMO toproduce worldw ide analyses of indices thatwi ll give an objective measure of actualchanges in climate extrem es. The resultsfrom this work provide important input tothe IPCC assessment reports.

Scientists reconstruct past

temperature, CO2 and sea

level from ice cores.

S

ealevel(m)

Temperature(C)

Age (thousand years before pr esent)

Sea level

Contributing to the political process

J.R.

Petit


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How does WCRP work?

There are three fundamental ways in w hich WCRP approaches its aims,namely, through climate-related observations and their analysis, throughfundamental research on climate/Earth system processes, and through thedevelopment, evaluation and use of clim ate/Earth system m odels. Scientificachievements in the areas of observation, modelling and p rediction aresystematically transitioned to operational monitoring and forecastingpractices.

Observations

Comprehensive in situ and remotely-sensed m easurements are a majorelement of all WCRP projects. The maximum possible value of observations

is obtained by put ting them together w ithother observations in the context ofmodels. WCRP projects, such as theContinental Scale Experim ents and theCoordinated Enhanced Observing Period(CEOP), represent a new era inintegration of models and satellite and insitu observational data. Through variousmeans including support to the OceanObservations Panel for Clim ate (OOPC)

and the A tmospheric Observation Panelfor Clim ate (AOPC), WCRP cont ributes tothe design and implementation of theGlobal Clim ate, Ocean and TerrestialObserving Systems. To assist further inthe design and coordination of observingsystems, WCRP is also a member of theinternational Integrated GlobalObserving Strategy Partnership and anassociated mem ber of the Comm ittee onEarth Observation Satellites.

Data setsWCRP has assembled and made available to scientists an unprecedentedcollection of g lobal and regional data sets for radiative fluxes, clouds, watervapour, hydrological cycle parameters, cryosphere parameters, etc., from thebottom of the oceans to the stratosphere. WCRP has encouraged severalreanalysis projects that, through the assembly and extensive quality controlof data and its assimilation in models, allow leading meteorological centres

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WCRP provides an international f ramework that:

Generates major international scientifi c initiatives in thearea of climate science and observation;Enables priority setting through an internationally-agreed agenda;Facilitates efficient and effective sharing of, and accessto, resources, including computer resources and data;

Stimulates and supports scientific networking;Develops common methodologies and experimentalprotocols for observations and modelling;Synthesizes and in tegrates individual research pro jectresults;Acts as a know ledge-base and think-tank for climateand global change assessments;Organizes relevant data and inform ation m anagement,and model intercomparisons.


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in the world to produce dynamically-consistent data sets that haverevolutionized diagnostic studies inmeteorology. The scope of reanalysisactivities is being extended by WCRPnow to include the full climate system.

Modelling

WCRP analyses of data sets, process studies, and support to, and

coordination of, model development have helped global climate modelsreach a new level of sophistication and accuracy. While in the 1970s clim atemodels mostly represented only physical and dynamical processes, modernmodels include representations o f bio logical and chemical processes as well,and wi ll soon include socio-econom ic factors. We are now at the dawn of anew era of comprehensive Earth system modelling.

The Working Group on Numerical Experimentation, jointly sponsored byWCRP and the WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS), hasacquired widest recognition for its contribution to advancing numericalweather prediction and various aspects of atmospheric modelling. The WCRPWorking Group on Coupled Modelling is the core group organizing model

experiments fo r the WM O/UNEP IPCC assessments.

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Capacity-building

The global change system for analysis, researchand t raining (START), established by WCRP, theInternational Geosphere-Biosphere Program me(IGBP) and the International Human DimensionsProgramm e on Global Environmental Change(IHDP) attempts to enhance the scientific capacityof developing countries in addressing the

complex processes of environm ental change anddegradation. START provides training and careerdevelopment and supports infrastructure forenvironm ental change research. The network ofscientists supported by START conduct researchon regional aspects of environm ental change;assess impacts and vulnerabilities to suchchanges; and provide information to decisionmakers.

Participants preparing

climate indi ces at a

WCRP/WMO workshop in

Turkey in 2004.

Coupled l and-atmosphere

models are used to study

hydrology of the

Mississippi River basin.

S.

Sorooshian


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The WCRP strategicframework 20052015:Coordinated Observation and

Prediction of the EarthSystem (COPES)

After 25 years of huge advances in climate science, there are many newopportuni ties and challenges for in ternational climate research. Among theseare the realization that there is a seamless prediction prob lem f rom weatherthrough to clim ate timescales, the necessity to address the broaderclimate/Earth system and the increasing abilit y to do this, new technology forobservations and computing, and the numerous possibilities for the

application of WCRP research to societal needs.

In response, WCRP is launching a new strategic framework, COPES, for itsactivit ies in 20052015 wi th the aim to facilitate analysis and prediction ofEarth system variabilit y and change for use in an increasing range ofpractical appli cations o f d irect relevance, benefit and value to society.

COPES will provide the unify ing context and agenda for the w ide range ofclimate science coordinated by, and perform ed through, WCRP core projectsand other activities, and for dem onstrating their relevance to society.Specific, time-lim ited objectives will be identi fied and set annually by theJoint Scientific Comm ittee for the WCRP. An initial list of topics includes:

seasonal prediction; monsoons; and sea-level rise. The necessary activity toachieve these objectives will, in general, be performed through thecontinuing WCRP projects; summary reports w ill be pub lished.

Strong research collaborations wi ll be sought, in particular:(a) On the broader Earth system aspects wi th IGBP, IHDP and the

International Programme on Biodiversity Science (DIVERSITAS), whichwith WCRP com prise the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP);

(b) Wi th THORPEX: A World Weather Research Programme, on weatheraspects;

(c) Within the new Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) ofwh ich WCRP is a member along w ith 40 nations and 30 internationalorganizations;

(d) With satellite agencies and num erical weather and climate predictioncentres;

(e) Through START for the involvement of scientists from developingcountries.

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Collaborations willalso be activelypursued in areas ofapplications, forexample w ith thoseinvolved withseasonal prediction,with the m onitoringand service-orientedcomponents ofWM Os World

Clim ate Program me,the Hydrology andWater ResourcesProgramme, and thenew WM O NaturalDisaster Preventionand Mitigation Programm e.

Direct input w ill continue to be provided for internationalassessments, such as those of IPCC, that contribute to theUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change andthe Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer.

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H ow fast will the sea level rise?

The IPCC Third Assessment Report pro jects thesea level rise in the twenty-first century in therange of 9-88 cm. WCRP aims to reduce thisrange of uncertainty and to substantiatesignificantly the future estimates by makingbetter estimates of all changes in mean sea levelrise sources, more accurate account of waterbalance on land, and improved m odels for oceanheat expansion.

CryoSat is a radar

altimetry m ission,

scheduled for launch in

2005, to determ ine

variations in the thicknessof the Earths continental

ice sheets and sea-ice

cover. Its primary objective

is to test the prediction of

thinning Arctic ice due to

global warming.

Powerful new computers

such as the Earth

Simulator in Japan will

make possible major

advances in clim ate

modelling.

EarthSimulator

Center/JAMSTEC

ESA


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Global Energy and Water CycleExperiment (GEWEX):ongoingcore project since 1990

Water in the atmosphere and at the surface of the Earth is the mostinfluential factor regulating our environment, not only because water isessential for life but also because it is the main energy source that controlsclouds and radiation and drives the global circulation of the atmosphere.Over the past 15 years, GEWEX has made significant advances in ourunderstanding of the atmosphere, the associated global water cycle and theoverall atmospheric energy budget, and how they might adjust to globalchanges such as the increase in greenhouse gases.

These advances have been obtained through the cooperation of researchcomm unities in hydrology, land-surface and atm ospheric science. GEWEX

has coordinated field experiments over continental areas representative ofthe major climate types and has developed models of relevant physicalprocesses and global data sets that enable the monitor ing o f the variouscomponents of the w ater cycle and energy budget for the past 20 years. Ithas also initiated pro jects that apply its scientifi c findings to the managementof w ater resources.

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The GEWEX observing

strategy includes

continental- and basin-

scale experiments as w ell

as global observations

from satellites.


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The goals of GEWEX have recently been revised as part of the overall WCRPstrategy. These include:(a) To produce consistent descriptions of the Earths energy budget and

water cycle, its variabilit y and trends, and data sets for the validation o f

models;(b) To enhance the understanding of how the energy and water cycleprocesses contribute to climate feedbacks;

(c) To develop im proved parameterizations encapsulating these processesand feedbacks for atmospheric circulation m odels;

(d) To interact with the wider WCRP commun ity in determin ing thepredictability of energy and w ater cycles; and

(e) To interact w ith the water resources community to ensure the usefulnessof GEWEX results.

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Annual average precipitation of 19881997 (Source: GPCP)

60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 30 60

-90

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 0 30 60

-90

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

1

2

(mm/year)0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

The Coordinated Enhanced

Observing Period (CEOP),

is a WCRP project initiated

by GEWEX which aims at

developing a globalnetwork of pilot joint

meteorological-

hydro logical stations. This

is associated wi th a unique

effort to make use of the

huge amounts of Earth

observing satellite data

available today.

1. Eastern Siberian Tundra (Yakutsk site)

2. North Slope of Al aska

3. Rhondonia


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Climate Variability andPredictability (CLIVAR):ongoingcore project since 1995

CLIVAR is the WCRP programme that addresses climate variability andpredictability with a particular focus on the role of ocean-atmosphereinteractions in climate. The oceans great heat capacity both exerts amoderating in fluence on seasonal and longer clim ate changes, and prov idesa mechanism for sustained oceanic influence on the atmosphere. CLIVARbuilds on the successfully concluded WCRP TOGA programme that advancedour understanding of the ENSO phenomenon and laid the foundation oftoday s operational monitoring and predictions of seasonal climatevariability. It also builds on the WCRP WOCE that collected an unprecedentedcomprehensive data set of the world ocean circulation, heat storage and sealevel.

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The African M onsoon M ultidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) project, sponsored

by GEWEX and CLIVAR, is being implemented in western Africa to understand

better African climate variability, its impact on water resources, food

sustainability and health. The approach includes an in situ observing system

built on the

existingoperational

network,

modelling

activities, satellite

measurements

and a training

programme. A

multidisciplinary

team of scientists

as well as

operational

meteorologists

and hydrologists

from the region

and from other

countries are

involved.

MALI


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CLIVAR research is aim ed at developing m ore useful p redictions of climatevariability and change through the use of improved climate models andobservations. Its objectives are:(a) To describe and understand the physical processes responsible for

climate variabilit y and predictability on season, interannual, decadal andcentennial timescales;

(b) To extend the range and accuracy of seasonal to interannual climatepredictions;

(c) To build the record of climate variability through the use of instrumentaland palaeoclimate data sets;(d) To determine the human influence on natural climate variability.

CLIVAR investigat ions address large-scale characteristics of the coupledclimate system such as the ENSO phenomenon, m onsoonal circulations inAsia, the Am ericas and Africa, the North At lantic Oscillation and its link toclimate in the region , and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and its inf luence onclimate.

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High-resolution models

can represent most of the

key features of the large-

scale ocean circulation.

An im portant source of

climate variability over the

North Atlantic region isknown as the North

Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

The positive phase of NAO

(left) can lead to m ilder

and wetter winters over

northern Europe and dry

conditions over the

Mediterranean; opposite

conditions may prevail

during the negative phase

(right).

Positive phase of NAO Negative phase of NAO

A.

Cowa

rd

L.

DohertyEarthLaboratory;NOAA


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Climate and Cryosphere(CliC): ongoing core projectsince 2000

The frozen w ater in t he Earth's clim ate system sea-, lake- and river-ice,snow cover, ice caps and ice sheets, glaciers, frozen ground andpermafrost significantly in fluences climate locally and globally. Therole of ice and snow in clim ate are studied by CliC. This global projectbuilds on the previous WCRP ACSYS. The principal goal of CliC is to assessand quantify the impacts that climatic variabilit y and change have oncomponents of the cryosphere and the consequences of these impacts forthe climate system.

CliC wil l:(a) Enhance the observation and monitoring of the cryosphere and the

climate of cold regions in support of process studies, model evaluationand change detection;

(b) Improve understanding of the physical processes and feedbacks throughwhich the cryosphere interacts within the climate system;

(c) Improve the representation of cryospheric processes in models to reduceuncertainties in simulations of climate and predictions of clim ate change;

(d) Facilitate assessment of changes in the cryosphere and their impact, andto use this information to aid the detection of climate change.

The project stud ies:(a) The magnitudes, patterns and rates of change in the terrestrial

cryosphere on seasonal-to-century timescales and the associated

changes in the w ater cycle;(b) The contribu tion of glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets to changes in globalsea level;

(c) The nature of changes in sea-ice distribution and m ass balance in bothpolar regions in response to clim ate change and variability;

(d) The impact of changes in the cryosphere on atmospheric and oceaniccirculation and the likelihood o f abrupt or critical climate and/or Earthsystem changes resulting from processes involving the cryosphere.

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Present day

2080

Future of sea-ice cover in t he Arctic Ocean

Through innovative methods of observations in the Arctic, advances in

models and creation of previously unavailable historical data sets, thefoundation is being bui lt for substantiated pro jections of future sea-icecover in the Arctic. The future scenarios foresee considerably reducedmulti-year ice, changes in the freshwater balance of the Arctic Oceandue to increased river run-off and accelerated melting o f the Greenlandice sheet. Implications of these changes will be of global character.

mod el projection of

lti-year sea-ice area.

HadleyCentre


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CliC implementation is planned around the following areas of climate andcryosphere science:(a) The terrestrial cryosphere and hydrometeorology of cold regions;(b) Glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets, and their relation to sea level;(c) The marine cryosphere and its interactions with high-latitude oceans and

atmosphere;

(d

) Links between the cryosphere and global climate.

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Complex models of ice

sheet elevation are used

to calcuate their mass

balance and contribution

to m ean sea level change.

The image depicts

simulated ice motion

needed to maintain mass

balance of the Antarctic

ice sheet.

R.

Warner


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Stratospheric Processes andtheir Role in Climate (SPARC):ongoing core project since 1992

In the stratosphere, a complex chain of interacting dynamical, radiative andchemical processes controls the atmospheric circulation and composition.Studies of the stratosphere hold the key to the understanding of formation ofpolar stratospheric clouds and ozone depletion, penetration o f ultravioletradiation into the troposphere, sudden stratospheric warmings, weatherpredictability beyond one week, etc. Some trends of atmospheric parametersin this region are yet unexplained. The SPARC project, in collaboration w iththe IGBP International Global Atm ospheric Chemistry project, addressesthese issues.

SPARC research addresses, inter alia, the following themes and associated

questions:(a) Stratosphere-troposphere coupling:

(i) What is the role of the stratosphere in tropospheric weather andlong-term climate?

(b) Detection, attribution and prediction of stratospheric changes:(i) What are the past changes and variations in the stratosphere and

what do we expect for the future?(ii) How well can we explain past changes in terms of natural and

anthropogenic effects?(c) Stratospheric chemistry and climate:

(i) How will stratospheric ozone and other constituents evolve and howwill they affect climate?

(ii) What are the links between changes in stratospheric ozone,ultraviolet radiation and tropospheric chemistry?

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per-pressure balloons

ry instruments up to the

atosphere to measure

perature and water

our.

The role of chemistry in climate changeand the future of the ozone layer

In col laboration with IGBP, WCRP scientists aredeveloping sophisticated and extensively verifiedclimate-chemistry m odels. Early resultsdemonstrate the ability to reproduce insimulations the observed changes in the ozonelayer. Measurements and experim ents indicatethe possibility of ozone layer recovery.24 September 2002, the

arctic ozone hole split

o tw o holes for the first

e since satellite

asurements have been

en. Dark blue indicates

hole, an area with at

st 20 per cent less ozone

n normal.

NASA


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The goal of this jo int project w ith IGBP, the Scientific Committee on OceanicResearch (SCOR), and the Commission on Atmospheric Chemistry andGlobal Pollution (CACGP) of the International Association o f M eteorology andAtm ospheric Sciences (IAMAS) is to advance quantitative understanding ofthe key biogeochemical-physical interactions and feedbacks between theocean and the atmosphere and how this coupled system affects and isaffected by climate and environmental change.

The aims of SOLAS are to determine:(a) Biogeochemical interactions and feedbacks between the ocean and the

atmosphere;

(b) Exchange processes at the air-sea interface and the role of transport andtransform ation in the atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers; and

(c) Air-sea flux of carbon dioxide and other long-lived radiatively-activegases.

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Surface Ocean-LowerAtmosphere Study (SOLAS):aco-sponsored project since 2001

The SOLAS domain.


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WCRP: working withpartners towards globalsustainability

The physical climate system is inextr icably linked to the biogeochemicalsystem and to human activit ies. To achieve fully our goals of understandingand predicting clim ate variabilit y and change, and their effect on mankind,we must study the ful ly integrated Earth system. To th is end, WCRP isworking increasingly close wi th IGBP, IHDP and DIVERSITAS to provide theinternational framework for coordination and cooperation for Earth systemscience and global environmental change. The four program mes haveformed the Earth System Science Partnership.

Joint projects for global sustainabilit y

Four topics of immediate social and econom ic relevance have been selectedfor the initial joint projects global carbon, food systems, human health andwater resources.

Global carbonThe global carbon joint research project is provid ing an integratedframework across disciplines as well as national boundaries to determ ine:

(a) What are the current spatial and temporal patterns of the major sources,sinks and fluxes of global carbon?

(b) What are the control and feedback

mechanisms both anthopogenic andnatural that determine the dynamics of thecarbon cycle?

(c) What are the dynamics of the carbon-climate-human system into the future, and what pointsof intervention and window s of opportunityexist for societies to manage this system?

Global environmentalchange and food systemsThis project aims to determine strategies to cope

with the impacts of global environmental changeon food systems and to assess the environmentaland socio-econom ic consequences of adaptiveresponses aimed at improving food security. Theproject w ill:

(a) Investigate how global change will affect foodsecurity in different regions and amongdifferent socio-economic groups;

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(b) Determine how different societies might adapt theirfood systems to cope with both global change andfood demand;

(c) Assess the environmental and socio-economicconsequences of po tential adaptations to foodsystems;

(d) Provide information and research findings to assistpolicy m akers decide on food systems in the contextof global change.

Global water systemThis project seeks to answer the fundamental and m ulti-faceted question ofhow hum ans are changing the global water cycle, the associatedbiogeochemical cycles and the biological components of the global watersystem, and what are the social feedbacks arising from these changes.

Major research themes include:(a) What are the magnitudes of anthropogenic and environmental changes

in the global water system and what are the key mechanisms by whichthey are induced?

(b) What are the main linkages and feedbacks wi thin the Earth systemarising from changes in the global water system?

(c) How resilient and adaptable is the global water system to change, andwhat are sustainable water m anagement strategies?

Human healthThe goals of this pro ject are to identify and reduce the risks to hum an healthposed by g lobal change and to collect systematically evidence of thesehealth risks to minimize or avoid their impact. The project will:

(a) Assess health impacts of global change andexamine their relationship;

(b) Develop adaptation measures and earlywarning systems for human health;

(c) Develop strategies and policies to facilitatemitigation (hazard reduction or elimination)and increase the adaptive capacity of localpopulations;

(d) Satisfy interdisciplinary data and modellingneeds to generate a better understanding ofthe tradeoffs between economic development,global environmental change and humanhealth.

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Graph showing the link

between malaria

outbreaks in Colombia

and El Nioevents.

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Isaac/FAO

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The World Climate Research Programm e is supported by asmall Secretariat, known as the Joint Planning Staff, hosted bythe World Meteorological Organization in Geneva, Swi tzerland.

World Clim ate Research Programm e (WCRP)World M eteorological Organization7bis, avenue de la PaixP.O. Box 23001211 Geneva 2, Swi tzerlandTel .: + 41 (0) 22 730 8111Fax: + 41 (0) 22 730 8036E-mail: [email protected]: http://www.wmo.ch/web/wcrp

Additionally, each of the major WCRP projects haveinternational offices which assist in implementing andcoordinating the various WCRP research elements.

CliC International Project OfficeTrom s, Norw ayE-mail: [email protected]: http://ipo.npolar.no/org/address.php

International CLIVAR Project Offi ceSouthampton , United KingdomE-mail: [email protected]

Web: http://www.cl ivar.org

International GEWEX Project OfficeSilver Spring, Maryland, United StatesE-mail: [email protected]: http://www.gewex.org/igpo.html

SPARC OfficeToronto, Ontario, CanadaE-mail: [email protected]: http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/SPARC/office.html

SOLAS International Project Office

Norwich, Norfolk, United KingdomE-mail: [email protected]: http://ww w.uea.ac.uk/env/solas/contact.html

Documents

World Climate Research Programme_25 Years of Science Serving Society