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World Companion Diagnostics Summit
Pre-Conference Workshop B: Identifying and Implementing Best Practices from Companion Diagnostic Development Case Examples: From Candidate Selection to Commercial Success
30th November 2010
Michael Thomas Stocum, MSM
Personalized Medicine Partners
Edward Duncan Blair, PhD MBA
Integrated Medicines Ltd
Workshop Objectives
Upon completion of this workshop, attendees should be able to:
1. Identify key biomarker activities in drug/diagnostic co-development
2. Outline core processes at various stages of co-development of a companion diagnostic
3. Understand the challenges that biopharmaceutical and diagnostic companies face during co-development
4. Discover how to overcome these challenges when partnering within and between organisations
5. Cite examples that demonstrate the typical value propositions for companion products
2
Disclaimer
The authors of this presentation do not make any representation with regard to their contribution (scientific, consultative or financial) to the cases presented, unless noted in the slides as presented. Further, any external third party (not developed by PMP/IML) material presented in these case studies is public, non-confidential material that was received with permission from the individuals cited. This information is shared with you for your individual use as a participant in this workshop and should not be duplicated in any way without the prior consent of the presenters of this workshop. The recipient is responsible for obtaining any necessary permissions to share or utilize any external third party material in this presentation.
3
4
Workshop Outline
1. INTRODUCTION – 30mins
• Name, affiliation, your key roles, your key interests, an IL-KF
2. CASE STUDIES BASED ON STAGE OF PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT MOST IMPACTED – 2hrs
Four key cases plus others alluded to
3. CONCLUSIONS – 30 mins
Discussion of lessons learned and how best applied
5
1. INTRODUCTION
6
About Your Facilitators
1. Michael T Stocum MSM – “Mike”
• Managing Director of Personalized Medicine Partners, LLC
• Positions in pharmaceuticals, including biologics, molecular diagnostics and biotech/ start-ups
• Past employers GlaxoSmithKline, Xanthon, Organon Teknika/Organon
• Qualified pilot and two-handed darts player
2. Edward D Blair PhD MBA – “Eddie”
Managing Director of Integrated Medicines Ltd
Chairman of Integrated Magnetic Systems Ltd (IMSL), NXD at IDS Holdings plc, visiting scholar at the Cambridge University.
• Past employment in pharmaceuticals (GSK) and biotech/ start-ups (Phynova, ITI)
• Unqualified pilot and partially successful mountaineer
Views Are Influenced By Cases…We have worked for an aggregate of 30+ years integrating biomarkers and tests (including novel laboratory developed tests and IVD kits) into therapeutic development and routine care settings
Working on HIV-1 viral load clinical applications in combination with novel therapeutics (NRTI, NNRTI & PI) in mid-late 1990s
Developing a novel “open source” HIV resistance RVA testing platform (in vivo ≡ in vitro) in late 1990’s
Co-leading project team that co-discovered correlation of HLA-B5701 and Hypersensitivity Reaction to Abacavir in early 2000’s
Comprehensive enabling programme (clinical trials, technology scouting, KOL management) on liver fibrosis and disease modification
Integrating novel biomarker tests (p-Her2, k-ras, etc.) on multiple platforms (genomic, IHC, etc.) into development of novel oncology therapeutics, such as lapatinib throughout 2000’s
Enhancing therapeutic development in additional disease areas such as cardiovascular, neurological, metabolic, respiratory and inflammatory
8
1. INTRODUCTION TO COMPANION DIAGNOSTICS AND PERSONALIZED MEDICINE Background information
Context of case studies
9
PATIENT-TARGETEDTHERAPIES
INNOVATIVEMEDICINES
THERAPEUTIC NEED
Right Medicine
Right Patient
Right Disease
Right Time
Right Dose
Right Response
Personalised Medicines
Right Price
Appropriate biomarkers and
Companion Diagnostics
10
Multiple Stakeholders – A Healthcare Value Net*
Government/ Regulators/ Payors
Direct healthcare providers
Industry –PharmaCo/ BiotechCo/ DxCo/ CRO
Patient (consumer/
beneficiary of healthcare)
*Brandenberger & Nalebuff, 1995
11
Safety, efficacy ….
Keys issues withmedicines today
are …..
*
*5th – 12th September 2005
and cost-effectiveness
12
Number of patients treated
All Selected Targeted
Pric
e of
med
icin
e
Low
Moderate
High
BLO
CK
-BU
STER
One
dru
g fit
s al
l; po
or re
spon
se
rate
s (2
0-80
%) &
risk
of
SA
Es
(>1%
)
SEG
MEN
T-B
UST
ERD
rug
resp
onse
s m
onito
red
for e
ffica
cy
and
SA
Es
usin
g di
agno
stic
-type
test
(C
Dx)
NIC
HE-
BU
STER
Dru
g gi
ven
to
spec
ific
patie
nts
dete
rmin
ed b
y pr
edic
tive
test
s (M
ol D
x; P
Gx)
Hi volume, low price
Low volume, hi price
Billion dollar sales line
Migration from block-buster treatments to high-value targeted treatments
*From Blair ED (2009) DDW 3:27, after Trusheim et al (2007) NRDD 6: 287
13
PrognosticHow is the disease likely
to progress in the patient?
BiomarkerDiscovery – what biological parameters are changed?
Validation – are these changes reproducible?
SurrogateClinical - does the disease status
appear to be changing? PK/PD - does the lack of response reflect no
efficacy or poor pharmacology?
Companion Diagnostic (CDx)Does the patient
have a specific disease and will he/she respond to therapy?
The “test” continuum
Qualification
Commercialization
14
Timelines for Diagnostic and Medicine Co-Development
Concurrent FDAapproval
Discovery
Pre-clinicalPhase I
Phase II
Phase III
FDA Review
Project Initiation
8 years 15 years
Drug Development
Diagnostic Development Marker Discovery
Test DevelopmentRegulatory Review
Latest date to begin companion test programme
Candidate selection Commercial success
The Seven Stages of Highly Effective CDx Products and the Questions Each Answers…
1. Defining unmet need – what is the problem? - TPP
2. Biomarker discovery – what is available to solve the problem?
3. Technical assay validation – can you measure the biomarker(s)?
4. Clinical validation – is it present and relevant in the clinical condition/disease?
5. Clinical utility – does it provide actionable information about the condition/disease?
6. Medical utility – is the information used to make a treatment decision that improves an outcome (inclusion in treatment guidelines)?
7. Commercial adoption – is it established as standard of care and appropriately reimbursed (health/economic benefit)?
15
16
Target Product Profile (TPP) Target Test Profile (TTP)
Indication (primary, further)Pharmacological ClassMechanism of ActionPresentation
o Route of administrationo Formulation
Core Claimso Primaryo Secondaries
Dosing RegimenSelling PriceCost of GoodsMarginGold Standard Treatments (current, future
competition)Reimbursement StatusPatent expiryEstimate Dates of Registration & Launch
Key business partnerMedicine supported by testMedicine development phase Test Value Proposition Intended use Epidemiology Risk evaluation (PoS, feasibility) Estimated date and route of registrationMilestones (ongoing assessment)Additional information
o QCo technology o gold standard o performance standards,o clinical sample & analyteo test locationo cost & pricingo IP
Medicinal Product and Companion Test Profiles Provide a Map Through the Seven Stages (summary)
17
Impact of companion tests (CDx)*
Faster to market or Faster to
Decision
Time -years0 5 10
Sales
*Adapted from Gilham, 2002
Enhanced peak sales
Extended life cycle
Reduced time to peak sales
Product Differentiation More convincing clinical information Increased efficacy & tolerability Enhanced HE outcome Improved risk/benefit
Market Expansion Identification of at risk patients Diagnosis of new patients Novel disease indications Increased compliance
Expedited Drug Development Surrogate instead of clinical endpoints Better defined trial populations reduce enrollment Clearer scientific rationale speeds recruitment screening
Adding Value to a Drug’s Profile Through Biomarker Testing
For more information see: Baker, M., 2005 Nat Biot 23(3) 297-305
19
CDx-guided Improvements in attrition?
Booth et al NRDD 2: 609 (2003) Walker & Newell NRDD 8: 16 (2009)
Factors underlying this difference are likely to include the targeted nature of kinase inhibitors and the improved design of clinical trials; for example, biomarker-driven patient stratification.
20
CDx offers increased revenue through better commercialization?*
*Trusheim et al NRDD 6: 287 (2007) *Agarwal PharmExec.com (Jan, 2009)
21
Financial impact of a Companion Diagnostic?*
No
Yes
Discounted Cash Flow - No Dx, NPV = $892 (15% dcf)
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year
Reve
nue
& Co
sts
Revenue Costs
Discounted Cash Flow - Companion Dx, NPV = $2,694 (10% dcf)
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Reve
nue
& Co
sts
Year
Revenue Additional Revenue Costs Dx test
NPV uplift:$2694M
- $ 892M$1802M
*Blair ED, (2008)
22
Impact of CDx co-development*
Davis et al (2009) Nature Rev Drug Disc 8: 279
~$200M
~$800M
~$1000M
~$2000M
(~$1800M)
23
Realistic CDx Market Value?CDx Market Opportunity
1.89.0
90.0
1.15.4
54.0
1.57.2
72.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Singleproduct
5products
pertherapy
area
Top 10therapy
area
USD
bill
ions
HighLowMid-Range
24
An alternate market assessment*
*Allen et al (Oct 2009) The new science of
personalized medicine – see www.PWC.com
25
An alternate market assessment*
*Allen et al (Oct 2009) The new science of
personalized medicine – see www.PWC.com
~$42bn
($54bn – $90bn)
26
Apportioning value in a Dx-Rx deal?Diagnostics Partner Revenue & Costs
-500.00
0.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
2000.00
2500.00
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Year
Rev
enue
& C
osts
Pharma Partner Revenues & Costs
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year
Reve
nues
& C
osts
Discounted Cash Flow - Companion Dx, NPV = $2,694 (10% dcf)
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Reve
nue
& Co
sts
Year
Revenue Additional Revenue Costs Dx test
Dx NPV = $84 M ($0M)
Rx NPV = $2,610 M ($892M)
27
Diagnostics Partner Influence (∝ Pharmaceutical Partner Urgency)
Lo Hi
Dia
gnos
tics
Part
ner
Rev
enue
s &
Ben
efit
Dire
ct &
Sca
le
Eco
nom
yIn
dire
ct &
Sco
pe
Eco
nom
y
TurnaroundOutcome: Product
Rescue1.8bn (90%R, 10% D)
Use-to-orderOutcome: Market
expansion$1.3bn (99%R, 1% D)
Make-to-orderOutcome: Market
penetration$1.9bn (98%R, 2%D)
IntegratedOutcome: Co-developed
test & medicine$1.8bn (97%R, 3%D)
PharmaCo-DxCo Relationships*
*Blair, Future Medicine 3/2010; PMC response to FDA, 12/2009
28
Unmet needs by therapy area*
*Davis et al (2009) Nature Rev Drug Disc 8: 279
DiabetesAsthma
CNS Drugs
29
2. CASE STUDIES
30
Examples of Companion Diagnostics*
*M Allison NBT 26(5):509 (2008) Is Personalised Medicine finally arriving?
31
Examples of Companion Diagnostics (cont)*
*Case for Personalised Medicine, 2nd Edition (2009), www.personalizedmedicinecoalition.org
32
Diagnostics Partner Influence(∝ Pharmaceutical Partner Urgency)
Lo Hi
Dia
gnos
tics
Part
ner
Rev
enue
s &
Ben
efits
Dire
ct &
Sca
le
Eco
nom
yIn
dire
ct &
Sco
pe
Eco
nom
y
TurnaroundOutcome: Product
Rescue1.8bn (90%R, 10% D)
Use-to-orderOutcome: Market
expansion$1.3bn (99%R, 1% D)
Make-to-orderOutcome: Market
penetration$1.9bn (98%R, 2%D)
IntegratedOutcome: Co-developed
test & medicine$1.8bn (97%R, 3%D)
SELECTED WORKSHOP CASE STUDIES
*Blair, Future Medicine 3/2010; PMC response to FDA, 12/2009
33
Diagnostics Partner Influence(∝ Pharmaceutical Partner Urgency)
Lo Hi
Dia
gnos
tics
Part
ner
Rev
enue
s &
Ben
efits
Dire
ct &
Sca
le
Eco
nom
yIn
dire
ct &
Sco
pe
Eco
nom
y
TurnaroundOutcome: Product
Rescue1.8bn (90%R, 10% D)
Use-to-orderOutcome: Market
expansion$1.3bn (99%R, 1% D)
Make-to-orderOutcome: Market
penetration$1.9bn (98%R, 2%D)
IntegratedOutcome: Co-developed
test & medicine$1.8bn (97%R, 3%D)
SELECTED WORKSHOP CASE STUDIES
*Blair, Future Medicine 3/2010; PMC response to FDA, 12/2009
1. Pfizer maraviroc
and
Monogram trofile test
2. Amgen panitumumab
and
KRAS test
4. AZ/ Prom budesonide
and
Prometheus Serology 7 test
3. GSK abacavir
and
HLA SNP test
34
2. CASE STUDIES
Development – Pfizer & Monogram for Selzentry & Trofile - EB
Regulation – Amgen, Imclone & DxS – Vectibix, Erbitux & KRAS – MS (additional details see S. Little presentation at 3:45 PM, 1-Dec)
Commercial rescue – GSK/ HLA SNP – Abacavir sales returned – MS (additional details see A. Hughes presentation at 3:30 PM, 2-Dec)
Product line extension – AZ/ Prometheus – protection of budesonide from generics – EB/ ALL
35
Case Study 1 – Pfizer-Monogram
Pfizer Celsentri (maraviroc) and Monogram Biosciences Trofile test (2004? - Present)
• Test used in maraviroc clinical development
• FDA approval of drug 6 August 2007 drives demand for test
• Income up-lift direct to Monogram
Only one CCR5 inhibitor developed, so Pfizer (VIIV) and Monogram relationship monogamous
36
HIV – the cradle of modern personalised medicine
Control groupGenotype group
Weeks of Regimen
12(p = 0.01)
24(p = 0.05)
Red
uctio
n in
HIV
-1 R
NA
0-1.40
-1.20
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0
VIRADAPT (Durant et al, 1999)
37
Why testing matters
• High baseline viral load may be a surrogate for amounts of virus resistant to agents in the backbone that are large enough to cause treatment failure in any ARV regimen
• Amount of CXCR4-using virus was significantly predictive of response to MVC + CBV
• As with all HIV antiviral combination therapy, the probability of success with a combination regimen is increased with potent regimens and/ or regimens that have a high resistance barrier
38
HIV lifecycle
39
HIV Tropism, gp120 and co-receptors
40
MVC Clinical Studies – Motivate-1 and -2, Merit
41
Maraviroc mode-of-action
42
Maraviroc-Trofile Co-development Timelines
FDA Approval 6AUG07
DiscoveryMIP/ CCR5
Pre-clinicalPhase I
Phase II
Phase III
FDA Review
1996 2002 2009
Maraviroc development
Trofile test development
Assay Technology(SFO labs, 1995)
Test DevelopmentRegulatory Review
Companion test programme initiated (2H2000)
Co
mm
erci
al s
ucc
ess
Dec
emb
er 2
00
9
CLIA accreditation
43
Maraviroc monograph (Pfizer/ VIIV)
“CCR5 tropism should be confirmed using a highly sensitive tropism assay prior to initiation of CELSENTRI therapy.
Outgrowth of pre-existing low-level CXCR4+ or dual/ mixed-tropic HIV-1, not detected by tropism testing at screening, has been associated with virologic failure on Celsentri.”
Why is this important to Pfizer/ VIIV?
44
Virological failure – out-growth vs resistance
45
The fear of resistance without Plan B
46
Trofile Test v1
47
Trofile Test v1
48
Trofile Test v1 (lay)
49
Trofile Test v2
100% Sensitive at detecting 0.3% CXR4-using minor variant
Uses the complete gp160 coding region of the HIV-1 envelope protein to ensure that all determinants of tropism are tested
Successful amplification and reliable results with viral load ≥1,000 copies/mL
50
Trofile ESTA improves selection and outcome*
*Basis of FDA expanded use approval 20Nov09
51
Trofile v1 and ESTA (v2) vs Quest HDA
CONCLUSIONS
•The concordance between CE-HDA and Trofile or TF-ES was approximately 70%.
•The agreement beyond chance between these tests (kappa statistic) was modest.
• Comparing groups with discordant tropism results, CE-HDA did not achieve non-inferiority to TF or TF-ES, and this assay appeared inferior to TF-ES
• Re-calibrating the heteroduplex assay cut-offs using 454 testing as a gold standard slightly improved the concordance with TFES, but did not appreciably change the virologic outcomes.
• TF-ES tropism results provided the best prediction of having <50 copies/mL 24 weeks post-MVC and detection of X4 post-MVC.
52
Trofile ESTA vs Sequencing
Maraviroc Genotyping by Ultra-Deep Sequencing ultrassensitive 454 Test: 16% discordance compared with original Trofile assay; also, "suggesting that the percent of non-R5 virus is more important than the absolute non-R5 VL“,
i.e., for Trofile calls, the percent of non-R5 virus is more important than the absolute non-R5 VL
53
Case Study 1 – Conclusions and Questions
Test essential for clinical development and marketing success
• Who paid for what and why?
Improved test crucial to separating out-growth of pre-existing virus from resistance
• Who drove upgrade and why?
Only one CCR5 inhibitor developed, so Pfizer (VIIV) and Monogram relationship monogamous
• How soon before partnership folds and why?
54
Case Study 2 – EGFR-Ligand Dependent Signalling Inhibition by mAb and KRAS testImclone/BMS/MerckSerono, Amgen and Kras tests (1H09)
• Support for use of several tests in clinical development of cetuximab (ERBITUX) and panitumumab (VECTIBIX)
• Representations to EU regulators re: Vectibix and later Erbitux labelling
• US FDA positions
• Ensuring reimbursement through NICE for tests at full cost
Slide courtesy of S Patterson
EGF Receptor Signaling Cascade and the RAS-RAF-MAP Kinase Pathway
Activation by ligand
Slide courtesy of S Patterson
EGF Receptor Signaling Cascade and the RAS-RAF-MAP Kinase Pathway
Receptor blockade by antibody
Slide courtesy of S Patterson
EGF Receptor Signaling Cascade and the RAS-RAF-MAP Kinase Pathway
Receptor blockade by antibody
KRAS mutant
activation
Slide courtesy of S Patterson
EGF Receptor Signaling Cascade and the RAS-RAF-MAP Kinase Pathway
Panitumumab (Vectibix®)US Package Insert
INDICATIONS AND USAGE• Vectibix is an epidermal growth factor receptor antagonist indicated as a
single agent for the treatment of metastatic colorectal carcinoma with disease progression on or following fluoropyrimidine, oxaliplatin, and irinotecan chemotherapy regimens. Approval is based on progression free survival; no data demonstrate an improvement in disease-related symptoms or increased survival with Vectibix. (1)
• Retrospective subset analyses of metastatic colorectal cancer trials have not shown a treatment benefit for Vectibix in patients whose tumors had KRAS mutations in codon 12 or 13. Use of Vectibix is not recommended for the treatment of colorectal cancer with these mutations. (1, 12.1, 14)
EGF Receptor Testing • Detection of EGFR protein expression is necessary for selection of patients
appropriate for Vectibix therapy because these are the only patients studied and for whom benefit has been shown [see Indications and Usage (1) and Clinical Studies (14)]. Patients with colorectal cancer enrolled in Study 1 were required to have immunohistochemical evidence of EGFR expression using the Dako EGFR pharmDx® test kit.
Adapted from Amado, et al. J Clin Onc 2008; 26(10): 1626-1634
Increased PFS Observed in Patients with KRAS Wild-type Tumors
KRAS Data and the Practice of Medicine Resulted in a Class Label Change
mCRC, metastatic colorectal cancer; SAP, statistical analysis plan
2007 Jan
2008 Jan
US Approval
SAP
KRAS
20020408
20020408 KRAS
ANALYSIS
2009 Jan
EU Approval
NCCN Practice Guidelines mCRC (28 Oct 08)
ODAC (16 Dec 08)
2010 Jan
ASCO PCO mCRC (13 Jan 09)
USPI change
CAP POET-KRAS/CRC (5 Nov 08)
20030181 & 20030203 WT-
KRAS RESULTS @ ECCO/ESMO
POOLED KRAS
ANALYSIS
Multiple studies
ASCO 2008
Slide courtesy of S Patterson
Slide courtesy of S Patterson
63
What is the “Return on Investment?”
For panitumumab (Vectibix®):
• In 2009, annual global sales of $233M
• Estimated that approximately one third of these sales are from the EU or $75M which are the result of a k-ras test availability
• Estimated costs of the clinical testing <$20M
• Remainder of story still to be written
Eli Lilly recognized $390.8 million in revenue from U.S. sales of Erbitux in mCRC and head and neck cancer during 2009. Outside the U.S. in 2009, sales of Erbitux increased 23% to €697 million (about $910.6 million), according to Merck KGa. Sales of Vectibix in mCRC totaled $233 million in 2009 versus $153 million in 2008; Vectibix makes up roughly 6% of Amgen’s sales revenue. GEN 27-Sep-2010
http://www.genengnews.com/analysis-and-insight/amgen-s-biomarker-research-underlies-vectibix-success/77899340/
64
Case Study 2 – Conclusions and Questions
Test essential for registration and reimbursement in the EU
• Who paid for what and why?
The test ultimately impacted the labelling of competing products and the label in other countries
• Who drove the label change and why?
The availability of a diagnostic also led to a change in medical practice
• How did the change in medical practice evolve, what drove the evolution and which came first, guidelines or labelling?
65
Case Study 3 – Abacavir Commercial Position Improvement (“Rescue”)
• Abacavir had a serious adverse event in a small, but significant number of patients
• Emerging anti-retrovirals (tenofovir) were a significant commercial threat to abacavir
• Improving the safety profile was hypothesized to drive greater physician comfort with using the medicine
• GSK HIV franchise plans to include abacavir in multiple combination regimens, SAE put a number of the portfolio products “at risk”
66
Landmark SNP Study in Pharma
• Objective: Product differentiation by improving safety profile− Hypersensitivity reaction to
abacavir (nucleoside analogue)• Two phase study – candidate
genes and genome wide SNPs− 114 markers including HLA-A, -B
and -DR• Methodology: DNA Sequencing of Cases and Controls
− Matched for race, age, gender, CD4+ counts, treatment status, tolerated abacavir > 6 weeks
• Number of subjects chosen to allow detection of a difference in frequency of 15−20% (80% power)− goal 100 cases, 200 controls, matched 1:2
67
• Data did not support changing the clinical assessment or management of HSR to ABC
• Proof of principle: pharmacogenetics plays a role in patient response to medicines
• Independent Academic confirmation2
Results1:• HLA B57+ plus other SNPs
are associated with HSR• High false negative rates
did not accurately predict individuals who will develop an HSR
SNPs for Product Differentiation –Adverse Event Avoidance
1 S. Hetherington, A. Hughes, M. Mosteller, D. Shortino, K. Baker, W. Spreen, E. Lai, K. Davies, A. Handley, D. Dow, M. Fling, M. Stocum, C. Bowman, L. Thurmond and A. Roses Genetic variations in HLA-B region and hypersensitivity reactions to abacavir The Lancet 359: 1121-1122, 2002
Cases(n=84)
Controls(n=113)
p-value
HLA-B57Present
39 (46%) 4 (4%) <0.0001
HLA-B57Absent
45 (54%) 109 (96%)
UPDATE: Confirmed HSR cases nearly eliminated in any study since that has used HLA B57+ as an exclusionary criteria!
2 Independent confirmation: Mallal, et al. The Lancet 359: 727-732, 2002
68 68
Performance Characteristics ofHLA-B*5701 Screening for ABC HSR
(PREDICT-1 Study)
HSRNo HSR
Pos Neg
Immunologically Confirmed HSR1
HLA-B*5701
23 025 794
Pos PV
48%
Neg PV100%
Sens 100%Spec 97%
Clinically Suspected HSR1 HLA-B*5701
Pos Neg
30 3619 762
Pos PV Neg PV
62% 96%
Sens 46%Spec 98%
1 Control Arm (Standard of Care) Data Only
Mallal et al; N Engl J Med 2008; 358(6):568-579
69
HSR to Abacavir Test –Revenue Impact for HIV Franchise
2009 Sales 4Q % change
2009 % change
Epzicom/Kivexa (abacavir + lamivudine)
149 11 546 8
Combivir (zidovudine + lamivudine)
109 -5 425 -13
Trizivir (abacavir + lamivudine + zidovudine)
49 -19 201 -17
Zeffix (lamivudine) 55 N/A 217 -1Agenerase/Lexiva (fosamprenavir calcium)
44 -9 178 -4
Epivir (lamivudine) 30 -17 129 -19Ziagen (abacavir) 27 -7 105 -13
70
What is the “Return on Investment?”
For abacavir (API in multiple products):
• Nearly 50% of the products in a $1.8B franchise contain ABC
• Most of franchise is in decline (competitive pressures/patent expiry)
• Novel abacavir combination with lamivudine is driving new growth, enabled by testing that essentially eliminated a troublesome adverse event (8% growth and >$0.5B in revenue)
71
Case Study 3 – Conclusions and Questions
Use of HLA B57-01 Lab Developed Test all but eliminates HSR to abacavir
• Who drove the testing and why?
The test ultimately impacted the labelling of the product
• Who drove the label change and why?
The availability of a diagnostic also led to a change in medical practice
• How did the change in medical practice evolve enhance treatment options for HIV patients?
72
Case Study 4 – Budesonide and Serology 7In some scenarios, a test can be used to reposition a late-in-life cycle drug vs. (generic) competition
*Agarwal PharmExec.com (Jan, 2009)
73
Breakout Groups
Name Role Affiliation Sector
Bernhard Fritz-Zieroth Global Project Leader Bayer Shering AG Rx
Barry Michael Rx
Thomas Gilbert Associate Director Biogen Idec Rx
Jill Bourdage PPM Eli Lilly & Co Rx
Daniel Bollag Sr. V.P. Regulatory Affairs & Quality Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc Rx
Mark Miglarese Vice President OSI Pharmaceuticals, Inc Rx
Name Role Affiliation Sector
Arlene Hughes Genetics research & regulatory GSK Rx
Keith Wharton Principal Scientist Biogen Idec Rx
Thomas McElroy Director LifeTech Dx
Jeff Fill Director, Clinical Biomarker Lab Eli Lilly & Co Rx
Devon Campbell Head, Systems & Engineering Novartis Rx
Anton Gilbert Compound leader Biogen Idec Rx
Name Role Affiliation Sector
Leia Smith Senior Principal Scientist Seattle Genetics Dx
Chandra Ramanathan Director Bayer HealthCare Phamaceuticals Rx
Lianne McLean Senior Director Myraqa, Inc. Dx
Crane Harris Director, Business Development Illumina Dx
Mark Curren Biomarker group Centocor Rx
74
Your task
Discuss question (20’) and report back (3x10’)
Group 1 (Rx perspective)
• How would you use a CDx to reposition a late cycle medicine?
Group 2 (Rx perspective)
• How would you use a CDx to line-extend a late cycle medicine?
Group 3 (Dx perspective)
• How would you position a CDx to support a late cycle medicine?
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Other benchmark cases - 1
Merck (MSD) relationship with Celera on cancer biomarkers and companion tests may involve pharma royalty payments to DxCo
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Other benchmark cases - 2
Health Technology Assessment* (cf UK NICE)
Andrew Dillon, Chief Executive of Nice commented ….”the NHS will only pay for the drug when it has been proven to work…”
To implement this risk-sharing agreement, clinicians are required to measure the levels of serum M protein (SMP; a specific biomarker for tumour load) after a maximum of four cycles of treatment. If the patient has a reduction in SMP of 50% or more, indicating a complete or partial response, treatment will continue and the NHS will pay. If not, the JnJ must rebate the full cost.Hughes NRDD 6: 945 (2007)
*Hughes NRDD 8: 261 (2009)
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3. CONCLUSIONS
Lessons learned and how to apply going forward
Changing environment driven by “open innovation”, i.e., pre-competitive research
Your views, experiences, comments