World Crop Forecast Report

7/27/2019 World Crop Forecast Report

1/16

2013/14 world corn production: 956 [912999] million tons, 4 million tons below USDA

2013/14 world soybean production: 283 [259300] million tons, 3 million tons below USDA

2013/14 world wheat production: 694 [670727] million tons, 4 million tons below USDA

In this report Lanworth updates production outlooks for 2013/14 China, Ukraine, and US corn; Australia,

Canada, Kazakhstan, Russia, and US wheat; US soybean; and Australia canola. Recent and expected warm

temperatures and/or precipitation extremes indicate moderately lower crop yield potential in China, the

Former Soviet Union, and the US. Continued warming and extreme precipitation in these Northern

Hemisphere regions could lower world corn, soybean, and wheat production well below USDAs projections.

However, long-term US weather forecasts calling for average to below average temperatures and average to

above average precipitation do not align consistently with recent weather. Uncertainty thus remains high forUS growing conditions during yield formation in July-August. Northern Hemisphere production will

nevertheless exceed last years under any forward weather scenario, as recent and expected temperatures

generally remain lower, and soil moisture remains higher, than last years anomalous levels. Outlooks for a

neutral ENSO and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole do not indicate elevated risk of widespread extreme

drought in Southern Hemisphere production areas such as preceded the 2012 harvest.

2013/14 CORN PRODUCTION

2013/14 China corn production: 216 [204218] million tons, down


2/16

CHINA CORN PRODUCTION

Lanworth lowers 2013/14 China corn production slightly to 216 [204218] million tons following review of

weather and imagery. Recent and expected above average precipitation greatly lowers the probability of

extreme drought in key corn production areas but raises the probability of yield losses in the Northeast

region. Short-term weather forecasts call for above normal precipitation into late July. Should wet conditions

continue through August, China corn production could fall as low as 204 million tons. Despite this risk,

higher corn planted area combined with high soil moisture and rapid crop development imply record high

production under most forward weather scenarios.

UKRAINE CORN PRODUCTION

Lanworth holds 2013/14 Ukraine corn production unchanged at 24.2 [22.030.5] million tons. Temperatures

remain moderately above, and precipitation moderately below, normal. Production will fall near Lanworths

lower bound should July-August temperatures reach record levels set in 2010, while an unexpected shift to

decadal low temperatures would raise production to Lanworths upper bound.

UNITED STATES CORN PRODUCTION

Lanworth lowers its median 2013/14 US corn yield estimate by 1% to 156.5 [143.3165.8] bushels per acre

based on recent and expected warm and/or dry conditions, field observations in northern and central Iowa,

and early-season imagery. Temperatures during much of the past two weeks exceeded forecast levels across

US production areas, while precipitation fell 50-90% below normal. Forecasts remain variable but now

indicate warm temperatures in western production areas and normal temperatures in central and eastern

production areas over the next two weeks. Relatively dry conditions are expected to continue in Iowa,

Kansas, much of Missouri, and Nebraska through much of the next one to two weeks. Without above-

average precipitation during the final week of the month, precipitation this July could approach the

historically low levels set last year. Should they be sustained through August, warm and dry conditions could

combine to greatly lower production potential from Lanworths current estimates in Kansas (-75 million

bushels) and Nebraska (-140 million bushels), where soil moisture levels are only moderately higher than

last years lows.

Figure 1: Crop vegetation density for China provinces accounting for 61% of potential corn production, 2013,

2012, and 2007-2011 average, with estimated or expected deviation of 2012 and 2013 corn yield from trend

shown in parenthesis. Crop vegetation density in 2013 is similar to that of 2012, when yields approached trend.

Lanworth CP19 Wednesday, July 17, 2013 Page 2 of 16

Signed on 07/18/2013 13:08:27 by ThomsonReuters


3/16

Additional risk to Lanworths US corn yield estimate correlates with a shift to extreme warm and dry

conditions in Iowa (-185 million bushels) and Minnesota and Missouri (-60 to -65 million bushels each)

following delayed planting. Initial field observations in central and northern Iowa indicate potentially

significant yield losses due to poor planting conditions and establishment problems. USDAs Objective Yield

data from similar late planted seasons indicate that reductions from trend plant population density and ears

per plant could lower corn yield potential by as much as 4-5%. The Objective Yield data also indicate that,

under relatively warm and dry forward weather, ear weight reductions from trend could further lower Iowayield potential by as much as 10-15%. Ear weight losses as extreme as last year (20% or greater) appear

unlikely, however, due to gains in soil moisture since last year. Lanworths current estimates of yield losses in

Iowa, Minnesota, and western production states are partially offset by yield gains following due to increased

soil moisture and relatively moderate temperatures in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan.

Given recent weather variation, lack of agreement between short- and long-term weather forecasts, and

extreme variability in summer weather following past cool and wet spring seasons, Lanworth continues to

assume equal probability of below-, near-, and above-trend temperature and precipitation after July.

Though a return to favorably cool temperatures cannot be ruled out, early-season imagery over corn

production areas sets likely upper limits to yield in states with extreme planting delays: Iowa, Minnesota,

Missouri, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. Taken with Lanworths planted area estimate, current yield

expectations set 2013/14 US corn production at 13,650 [12,40014,700] million bushels. The range indicates

substantial losses from USDAs 13,950 million bushels should warm and dry weather spread and/or

intensify, though normal or cool and wet weather could support production near or above USDAs projection.

2013/14 SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

2013/14 US soybean production: 90.2 [84.294.5] million tons, down 1% from last report

As with corn, variation in 2013/14 world soybean supply depends primarily on July-August precipitation and

temperature over US production areas. Current outlooks for continued neutral ENSO conditions do not pose

extreme risk to USDAs South American soybean production outlooks.

Figure 2: Corn vegetation density profiles for major producing US states, 2013, 2008, and 2007-2011 average,

with actual or expected deviation of 2008 and 2013 yield from trend shown in parenthesis. Corn yields fell near

trend in 2008 when delayed crop development was followed by below-trend summer temperatures. The 2008

yield deviations provide approximate upper bounds for the 2013 season under similarly supportive conditions.




4/16

UNITED STATES SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

Risks to Lanworths 2013/14 US soybean yield outlook are similar to those for corn. Initial field observations

confirm delayed canopy development across much of northern and central Iowa. Accounting for recent and

expected warm and/or dry weather and likely impacts on pod density and weights in Iowa, as implied by

USDAs Objective Yield data, lowers Lanworths soybean yield outlook by 1% to 42.9 [40.345.0] bushels per

acre. Taken with Lanworths planted area estimate, this yield range sets 2013/14 US soybean production at

3,315 [3,1003,475] million bushels. Achieving USDAs projected 3,420 million bushels would require

relatively wet conditions through the end of August.

2013/14 WHEAT PRODUCTION

2013/14 Australia wheat production: 25.1 [19.229.8] million tons, up


5/16

production than last years drought impacted 9.8 million tons. Should relatively normal precipitation and

cool temperatures persist through August, Kazakhstan wheat production could reach 18.6 million tons.

RUSSIA WHEAT PRODUCTION

Lanworth lowers 2013/14 Russia wheat production by 2% to 50.0 [46.553.5] million tons. Updated imagery

and warm conditions indicate winter wheat productivity in the Volga District similar to last years low levels

(40% below the previous 5-year average). Accounting for these losses places 2013/14 Russia winter wheat

production at 28.9 [27.030.9] million tons, up 13% from last year. Despite gains in soil moisture followinglast seasons severe drought, recent and expected warm and dry conditions maintain risk of substantial

spring wheat yield losses in the Siberian and Ural Districts should weather turn anomalously warm and dry

through August. Current weather outlooks indicate some risk that extreme warm weather will occur in this

region through the end of July, though precipitation outlooks are variable. As such, Lanworth maintains a

wide range for potential 2013/14 Russia spring wheat production at 21.0 [19.522.6] million tonsup 73%

from last years drought-impacted harvest.

UNITED STATES WHEAT PRODUCTION

Lanworth raises 2013/14 US all wheat production fractionally to 55.6 [51.759.1] million tons. USDAs July

Crop Production report raised 2013/14 US winter wheat production by 2% to 1,543 million bushels, 3% higher

than Lanworths estimated 1,500 million bushels. Most of the deviation occurs in Kansas, where Lanworths

estimate remains 40 million bushels lower than USDAs based on image analysis and assessment of

drought and freeze impacts in the western part of the state. Lanworth will continue to assess deviations from

USDAs yield and harvested area estimates through elevator surveys over the next few weeks. Lanworth

holds 2013/14 US spring wheat production largely unchanged at 541 million bushels, roughly 5% below

USDAs July estimate. In years when spring wheat planting was as delayed as this year in Montana and

North Dakota (1995, 1996, 1999, and 2002), final spring wheat yields fell near or below trend but neverabove. Lanworth will assess spring wheat growing conditions and yield potential through updated weather,

imagery, fieldwork, and grain elevator surveys through August.

2013/14 AUSTRALIA CANOLA PRODUCTIONLanworths 2013/14 Australia canola production estimate stands unchanged at 3.2 [2.73.7] million tons.

June precipitation was above average in eastern production states and soil moisture remains above average

in Western Australia despite below average June rainfall. Should adequate precipitation and cool

temperatures continue during flowering and pod fill in July-October, production could reach 3.7 million tons.

A return to dry conditions, however, could limit production to 2.7 million tons.

Figure 3: Average April/May-June maximum daily temperature and precipitation, 1985-2013, and crop

vegetation density, 2013, 2012, and 5-year average, in the Volga District. Weather and crop vegetation density in

2013 are very similar those of 2012, when winter wheat productivity fell nearly 40% below the previous 5-year

average. Winter wheat in the Volga District accounts for 9% of potential Russia wheat production.




6/16


P

lantedAr

a

H

rve

stedAea

Yield

Produ

ction

USDA

2012/13

USDA

2013/14

LW

2013/14

USDA

2012/13

U

SDA

2013/14

LW

2013/14

USDA

2012/13

USD

A

2013/14

LW

2013/14

USDA

2012/13

USD

A

2013

/14

LW

2013/14

Arkansas

710

1,000

1,020

695

970

990

178.0

162.2

123,710

160,613

Colorado

1,420

1,250

1,350

1,010

1,020

1,082

133.0

139.7

134,330

151,128

Illinois

12,800

12,200

12,325

12,250

11,900

12,098

105.0

177.3

1,286,250

2,144,862

Indiana

6,250

6,100

6,150

6,030

5,900

5,955

99.0

170.7

596,970

1,016,400

Iowa

14,200

14,000

13,800

13,700

13,500

13,345

137.0

172.1

1,876,900

2,296,046

Kansas

4,700

4,500

4,200

3,950

4,200

3,701

96.0

119.8

379,200

443,274

Kentucky

1,650

1,600

1,650

1,530

1,500

1,529

68.0

148.4

104,040

226,836

Louisiana

540

750

650

530

740

620

173.0

148.1

91,690

91,895

Michigan

2,650

2,800

2,600

2,390

2,470

2,310

133.0

156.5

317,870

361,490

Minnesota

8,750

8,700

8,450

8,330

8,200

7,946

165.0

165.2

1,374,450

1,312,378

Mississippi

820

950

950

795

900

896

165.0

149.3

131,175

133,810

Missouri

3,600

3,450

3,100

3,300

3,250

2,931

75.0

130.4

247,500

382,162

Nebraska

10,000

10,200

10,150

9,100

9,800

9,742

142.0

167.6

1,292,200

1,632,868

NorthCarolina

860

950

900

820

880

822

117.0

106.3

95,940

87,388

NorthDakota

3,600

3,900

3,440

3,460

3,600

2,981

122.0

112.3

422,120

334,663

Ohio

3,900

3,950

4,000

3,650

3,680

3,765

123.0

171.5

448,950

645,826

Pennsylvania

1,460

1,500

1,500

1,000

1,100

1,015

132.0

132.6

132,000

134,619

SouthDakota

6,150

5,900

6,440

5,300

5,300

6,018

101.0

137.8

535,300

829,331

Tennessee

1,040

950

970

960

880

881

85.0

131.2

81,600

115,534

Texas

1,850

2,400

2,400

1,550

2,100

1,630

130.0

89.6

201,500

146,051

Wisconsin

4,350

4,200

4,150

3,300

3,250

3,226

121.0

149.6

399,300

482,769

OtherStates

5,855

6,129

6,129

3,725

4,360

3,875

136.2

138.8

507,301

537,861

UnitedStates

97,155

97,379

96,324

87,375

89,500

87,358

123.4

15

6.5

156.5

10,780,29613,950

,000

13,667,805

Table

1:UScornplantedarea,harvestedarea,yield,andproduc

tionestimatesbystate,2012/13and

2013/14.Unitsarethousandacres,bushelsperacre,

andthousandbushels.



7/16


P

lantedAre

a

H

rve

stedAea

Yield

Produ

ction

USDA

2012/13

USDA

2013/14

LW

2013/14

USDA

2012/13

U

SDA

2013/14

LW

2013/14

USDA

2012/13

USD

A

2013/14

LW

2013/14

USDA

2012/13

USDA

2013

/14

LW

2013/14

Arkansas

3,200

3,400

3,280

3,160

3,350

3,238

43.0

42.3

135,880

137,081

Illinois

9,050

9,400

9,225

8,920

9,350

9,181

43.0

48.3

383,560

443,235

Indiana

5,150

5,250

5,250

5,140

5,230

5,240

43.5

49.2

223,590

257,891

Iowa

9,350

9,500

9,475

9,300

9,430

9,421

44.5

48.9

413,850

460,745

Kansas

4,000

3,950

4,100

3,810

3,890

4,026

22.0

30.1

83,820

121,105

Kentucky

1,480

1,600

1,500

1,470

1,590

1,488

40.0

40.3

58,800

59,971

Louisiana

1,130

1,110

1,160

1,115

1,080

1,122

46.0

40.5

51,290

45,467

Michigan

2,000

1,900

2,100

1,990

1,890

2,091

43.0

42.9

85,570

89,663

Minnesota

7,050

6,800

7,300

6,990

6,720

7,224

43.0

41.9

300,570

302,682

Mississippi

1,970

1,920

2,150

1,950

1,900

2,122

45.0

42.9

87,750

91,107

Missouri

5,400

5,700

5,350

5,260

5,640

5,269

29.5

40.8

155,170

214,914

Nebraska

5,050

4,800

4,900

4,990

4,750

4,857

41.5

52.5

207,085

254,890

NorthCarolina

1,590

1,700

1,650

1,580

1,680

1,620

39.0

31.7

61,620

51,423

NorthDakota

4,750

4,400

4,575

4,730

4,360

4,534

34.0

31.1

160,820

141,209

Ohio

4,600

4,550

4,600

4,580

4,530

4,586

45.0

50.7

206,100

232,690

Pennsylvania

530

560

590

520

550

580

48.0

43.7

24,960

25,324

SouthDakota

4,750

4,800

4,525

4,710

4,750

4,487

30.0

37.5

141,300

168,182

Tennessee

1,260

1,360

1,400

1,230

1,330

1,357

38.0

33.5

46,740

45,447

Wisconsin

1,710

1,680

1,550

1,700

1,670

1,539

41.5

43.3

70,550

66,711

OtherStates

3,178

3,348

3,348

2,959

3,228

3,214

39.2

32.9

115,973

105,726

UnitedStates

77,198

77,728

78,028

76,104

76,918

77,194

39.6

4

4.5

42.9

3,014,998

3,420

,000

3,315,463

Table

2:USsoybeanplantedarea,harvestedarea,yield,andproductionestimatesbystate,2012/13

and2013/14.Unitsarethousandacres,bushelsper

acre,andthousandbushels.



8/16


Table

3:2013/14USwinterwh

eatseededarea,harvestedfraction,yield,andproductionestimatesbystateandclass.Unitsarethousandacres,bushelsperacre,

andthousandbushels.

Seede

dAre

a

LW1

3/

4Area

yClass

HarvestFraction

Yild

Prodction

LW2

01

3/14Prod.

yClass

USDA

2013/14

LW

2013/14

HRW

SRW

WW

U

SDA

20

13/14

LW

2013/14

USDA

2013/14

LW

2013/14

USDA

2013/14

LW

2013/14

HRW

SRW

WW

Arkansas

710

650

3

647

0

0.87

0.86

59.0

59.1

36,285

32,950

165

32,785

0

California

610

610

528

0

82

0.56

0.56

85.0

85.0

28,900

28,900

24,999

0

3,902

Colorado

2,200

2,245

2,200

0

45

0.68

0.74

33.0

28.5

49,500

47,650

46,697

0

953

Idaho

770

770

177

0

593

0.95

0.94

76.0

79.8

55,480

57,440

13,211

0

44,229

Illinois

850

900

0

900

0

0.96

0.96

65.0

64.2

53,300

55,250

0

55,250

0

Indiana

470

440

0

440

0

0.91

0.95

69.0

70.1

29,670

29,430

0

29,430

0

Kansas

9,400

9,600

9,408

0

192

0.87

0.83

40.0

36.3

328,000

290,230

284,425

0

5,805

Kentucky

700

630

0

630

0

0.83

0.83

73.0

73.0

42,340

37,960

0

37,960

0

Michigan

620

640

0

406

234

0.95

0.95

75.0

73.8

44,250

45,000

0

28,575

16,425

Mississippi

410

450

0

450

0

0.93

0.93

57.0

57.0

21,660

23,940

0

23,940

0

Missouri

1,100

1,090

27

1,063

0

0.88

0.88

55.0

54.3

53,350

52,150

1,304

50,846

0

Montana

2,200

2

,170

2,148

0

22

0.98

0.96

43.0

42.2

92,450

88,200

87,318

0

882

Nebraska

1,450

1,360

1,360

0

0

0.80

0.81

36.0

36.2

41,760

39,860

39,860

0

0

NorthCarolina

990

990

0

990

0

0.94

0.93

59.0

55.9

54,870

51,420

0

51,420

0

NorthDakota

350

350

350

0

0

0.91

0.94

40.0

46.9

12,800

15,470

15,470

0

0

Ohio

710

700

0

700

0

0.96

0.97

67.0

68.4

45,560

46,530

0

46,530

0

Oklahoma

5,500

5,670

5,613

57

0

0.64

0.69

33.0

27.8

115,500

108,260

107,177

1,083

0

Oregon

810

810

32

0

778

0.99

0.98

61.0

55.5

48,800

43,830

1,753

0

42,077

SouthDakota

1,200

1,355

1,355

0

0

0.54

0.61

39.0

40.5

25,350

33,220

33,220

0

0

Tennessee

560

550

0

550

0

0.88

0.87

68.0

65.0

33,320

31,220

0

31,220

0

Texas

5,900

5,

990

5,571

419

0

0.34

0.40

32.0

28.5

64,000

68,400

63,612

4,788

0

Washington

1,710

1,730

303

0

1,427

0.98

0.98

67.0

64.7

112,560

110,010

19,252

0

90,758

Wisconsin

330

330

10

317

3

0.85

0.85

57.0

65.5

15,960

18,337

550

17,604

183

OtherStates

3,147

3

,155

754

2,316

85

0.79

0.79

55.5

58.1

137,430

144,763

15,090

126,539

3,947

UnitedStates

42,697

43

,185

29,840

9,885

3,460

0.76

0.77

47.8

45.4

1,543,0951,500,420

754,103

537,970

209,161



9/16


P

lantedAr

a

Ha

rvestedArea

Yield

Production

USDA

2

012/13

USDA

2013/14

LW

2013/14

USDA

2012/13

USDA

2013/14

LW

2013/14

USDA

2012/13

U

SDA

20

13/14

LW

2013/14

USDA

2012/13

US

DA

201

3/14

LW

2013/14

Arizona

105

65

65

10

4

64

64

95.0

105.0

105.0

9,880

6,720

6,720

California

140

100

100

135

90

90

105.0

95.0

95.0

14,175

8,550

8,550

Idaho

13

5

5

13

5

5

62.0

62.0

806

310

Montana

520

510

475

515

505

465

28.0

30.0

28.0

14,420

15,150

13,027

NorthDakota

1,340

850

950

1,33

0

830

915

32.0

32.0

28.8

42,560

2

6,560

26,296

SouthDakota

5

8

8

5

8

8

23.0

23.0

115

184

UnitedStates

2,123

1,538

1,603

2,10

2

1,502

1,547

39.0

38.3

35.6

81,956

5

7,474

55,087

Table

4:USdurum

wheatplantedarea,harvestedarea

,yield,andproductionestimatesbys

tate,2012/13and2013/14.Unitsare

thousandacres,

bushelsperacre,a

ndthousandbushels.

P

lantedAr

a

Ha

rvestedAea

Yield

Production

USDA

2

012/13

USDA

2013/14

LW

2013/14

USDA

2012/13

USDA

2013/14

LW

2013/14

USDA

2012/13

U

SDA

20

13/14

LW

2013/14

USDA

2012/13

US

DA

201

3/14

LW

2013/14

Colorado

13

19

19

12

17

17

89.0

89.0

1,068

1,513

Idaho

520

550

550

50

0

530

530

76.0

77.0

77.0

38,000

4

0,810

40,810

Minnesota

1,350

1,200

1,350

1,310

1,100

1,315

57.0

53.0

53.0

74,670

5

8,300

69,684

Montana

2,950

2,850

2,850

2,90

0

2,800

2,770

33.0

35.0

32.7

95,700

98,000

90,510

Nevada

6

8

8

2

3

3

70.0

70.0

140

210

NorthDakota

5,750

5,700

5,375

5,70

0

5,600

5,143

45.0

41.0

38.6

256,500

229,600

198,518

Oregon

95

100

100

93

97

97

62.0

69.0

69.0

5,766

6,693

6,693

SouthDakota

1,080

1,400

1,200

1,02

0

1,350

1,158

41.0

41.0

48.4

41,820

5

5,350

55,988

Utah

15

18

18

13

16

16

40.0

40.0

520

640

Washington

510

450

450

50

5

445

445

55.0

49.0

49.0

27,775

2

1,805

21,805

UnitedStates

12,289

12,295

11,920

12,05

5

11,958

11,494

45.0

45.0

42.9

541,959

512,921

486,370

Table

5:USother

springwheatplantedarea,harvested

area,yield,andproductionestimate

sbystate,2012/13and2013/14.Unitsarethousand

acres,bushelsper

acre,andthousandbushels.



10/16


Pl nted Area Harvested rea Yield Production

Winter Spring Total Winter Spring Total Winter Spring Total Winter Spring Total

USDA 2011/12 11,805 13,747 25,552 11,455 13,299 24,754 2.99 1.64 2.26 34,249 21,811 56,060

USDA 2012/13 11,842 12,843 24,685 11,051 10,245 21,296 2.31 1.19 1.77 25,527 12,192 37,719LW 2013/14 Mean 12,699 12,900 25,599 11,776 12,170 23,946 2.46 1.73 2.09 28,939 21,034 49,973

Table 6: Comparative 2013/14 Russia wheat planted area, harvested area, yield, and production. Units are thousandhectares, tons per harvested hectare, and thousand tons. USDA data from PSD and GAIN.



USDA 2011/12 6,657 3.32 22,124

USDA 2012/13 5,700 2.72 15,500LW 2013/14 Mean 6,836 6,490 2.88 18,661

Table 8: Comparative 2013/14 Ukraine wheat planted area, harvested area, yield, and production. Units are thousandhectares, tons per harvested hectare, and thousand tons. Approximately 95% of Ukraine wheat is winter wheat.



USDA 2011/12 13,686 1.66 22,732

USDA 2012/13 12,400 0.79 9,841

LW 2013/14 Mean 12,994 12,500 1.36 16,958

Table 9: Comparative 2013/14 Kazakhstan wheat planted area, harvested area, yield, and production. Units arethousand hectares, tons per harvested hectare, and thousand tons.

Table 7: Comparative 2013/14 Ukraine corn planted area, harvested area, yield, and production. Units are thousandhectares, tons per harvested hectare, and thousand tons.



USDA 2011/12 3,544 6.44 22,838

USDA 2012/13 4,370 4.79 20,922

LW 2013/14 Mean 4,800 4,661 5.19 24,197



11/16


arvestedAre

Yield

Production

ABARE

S

2012/13

ABARES

2013/14

LW

2013/14

ABARES

2012/13

ABARES

2013/14

LW

2013/14

ABARES

2012/13

ABARES

2013/14

LW

2013/14

NewSouthWales

3,750

3,900

3,860

1.89

1.95

1.95

7,105

7,605

7,536

Queensland

950

970

970

1.84

1.85

2.01

1,748

1,795

1,948

SouthAustralia

2

,160

2,224

2,188

1.70

1.85

1.60

3,672

4,111

3,501

Tasmania

8

8

8

4.09

4.00

4.00

33

32

32

Victoria

1,590

1,630

1,564

1.68

1.87

1.85

2,671

3,050

2,898

WesternAustralia

4,785

4,945

5,016

1.43

1.78

1.83

6,850

8,807

9,154

AustraliaTotal

13,243

13,677

13,605

1.67

1.86

1.84

22,079

25,399

25,069

Table

10:Australiawheatharv

estedarea,yield,andproductionestimatesbyprovince,2012/13and2013

/14.Unitsarethousandhectares,tonsperhectare,

andthousandtons.

Table

11:Canadawheatharvestedarea,yield,andproductionestim

atesbyprovince,2012/13and2013/14.Unitsarethousandhectares,tons

perhectare,and

thousandtons.Productionbyclassis4milliontons(14%)winterwheat,4.5milliontons(15%)durumwheat,and21.2milliontons(71%)othe

rspringwheat.

eededAre

H

rvestedAr

ea

Yield

Production

StatCan

2012/13

StatCan

2013/14

LW

2013/14

StatCan

2012/13

StatCan

2013/14

LW

2013/14

StatCan

2012/13

StatCan

2013/14

LW

2013/14

StatCan

2012/13

StatCan

2013/14

LW

2013/14

Alberta

2,64

1

2,825

2,715

2,60

8

2,716

3.20

3.39

8,369

9,196

Manitoba

1,21

0

1,406

1,140

1,19

4

1,198

3.30

3.47

3,923

4,151

Ontario

38

0

463

457

36

8

451

5.10

5.26

1,883

2,369

Saskatchewan

5,30

7

5,789

5,566

5,23

7

5,482

2.40

2.51

12,727

13,738

OtherProvinces

9

2

110

108

91

105

3.30

2.96

303

310

Canada

9,63

1

10,594

9,986

9,49

8

9,951

2.90

2.99

27,205

29,765



12/16


arvestedAre

Yield

Production

M

OA

20

11/12

MOA

2012/13

LW

2013/14

MOA

2011/12

MOA

2012/13

LW

2013/14

MOA

2011/12

MOA

2012/13

LW

2013/14

Anhui

819

907

4.43

4.37

3,626

3,963

Gansu

839

875

5.07

5.02

4,256

4,392

Guangxi

566

551

4.32

4.79

2,447

2,641

Guizhou

788

802

3.09

5.52

2,437

4,425

Hebei

3,036

3,234

5.40

5.64

16,396

18,233

Heilongjiang

4,587

5,181

5.83

5.89

26,758

30,530

Henan

3,025

3,242

5.61

5.90

16,965

19,138

Hubei

550

632

5.02

5.27

2,762

3,331

InnerMongolia

2,670

3,125

6.11

6.26

16,321

19,573

Jilin

3,134

3,327

7.46

7.07

23,390

23,538

Liaoning

2,135

2,205

6.37

6.55

13,603

14,453

Shaanxi

1,178

1,213

4.67

5.44

5,507

6,602

Shandong

2,996

3,115

6.60

6.99

19,787

21,758

Shanxi

1,647

1,851

5.19

5.39

8,546

9,985

Sichuan

1,363

1,409

5.15

5.35

7,016

7,533

Yunnan

1,409

1,537

4.25

4.16

5,982

6,390

Xinjiang

728

903

7.11

7.22

5,177

6,513

Otherprovinces

2,074

2,221

5.69

5.86

11,805

13,020

Chinatotal

33,542

34,950

36,331

5.75

5.89

5.95

192,781

205

,772

216,017

Table

12:Chinacornharvestedarea,yield,andproductionestim

atesbyprovince,2011/12,2012/13,a

nd2013/14.Unitsarethousandhectares,tonsper

hectare,andthousandtons.



13/16


Suply

Use

Balnce

Region

Beginning

stocks

Produc-

tion

Imports

Total

Feed

Other

Domestic

Exports

Total

End

ing

stocks

Stocks/use

World-LW

116.6

2

955.6

9

99.06

1,072.8

1

557.03

375.40

103.85

932.43

140.3

8

15%

World-WAOB

123.57

959.84

99.06

1,083.41

557.03

375.40

103.85

932.43

150.97

16%

US-LW

18.53

347.0

0

0.76

366.2

9

130.82

161.29

31.75

323.86

42.4

3

13%

US-WAOB

18.53

354.35

0.76

373.64

130.82

161.29

31.75

323.86

49.77

15%

China-LW

54.0

4

216.0

0

7.00

277.0

4

156.00

68.00

0.05

224.05

52.9

9

24%

China-WAOB

60.89

211.00

7.00

278.89

156.00

68.00

0.05

224.05

54.84

24%

Brazil-LW

13.4

1

72.00

0.80

86.2

1

46.00

8.00

18.00

72.00

14.2

1

20%

Brazil-WAOB

12.01

72.00

0.80

84.81

46.00

8.00

18.00

72.00

12.81

18%

Argentina-LW

-0.6

0

27.00

0.01

26.4

1

5.30

3.00

18.50

26.80

-0.3

9

-1%

Argentina-WAOB

0.90

27.00

0.01

27.91

5.30

3.00

18.50

26.80

1.11

4%

Ukraine-LW

0.82

24.2

0

0.05

25.0

7

7.00

1.60

16.50

25.10

-0.0

3

0%

Ukraine-WAOB

0.82

26.00

0.05

26.87

7.00

1.60

16.50

25.10

1.77

7%

Paraguay-LW

1.10

2.90

0.01

4.0

1

0.40

0.40

2.40

3.20

0.8

1

25%

Paraguay-WAOB

0.60

2.90

0.01

3.51

0.40

0.40

2.40

3.20

0.31

10%

Other-WAOB

29.82

266.59

90.43

386.84

211.51

133.1

1

16.65

361.27

30.36

8%

Table

13:2013/14worldcornsupplyanduse(milliontons).Lanworthestimatesareboldface.WAOB

estimatesarefromtheJulyWASDEa

ndPSD.



14/16


Suply

Use

Balnce

Region

Beg

inning

stocks

Produc-

tion

Imports

Total

Crush

Other

Domestic

Exports

Total

End

ing

stocks

Stocks/use

World-LW

59.7

1

283.0

1

104.45

341.87

239.47

31.06

107.21

273.29

68.5

8

25%

World-WAOB

61.52

285.89

104.45

347.41

239.47

31.06

107.21

273.29

74.12

27%

US-LW

3.39

90.2

0

0.41

94.0

0

46.13

3.25

39.46

88.84

5.1

6

6%

US-WAOB

3.39

93.08

0.41

96.88

46.13

3.25

39.46

88.84

8.04

9%

Brazil-LW

18.0

1

85.00

0.05

103.0

6

37.00

3.30

41.50

81.80

21.26

26%

Brazil-WAOB

18.60

85.00

0.05

103.65

37.00

3.30

41.50

81.80

21.85

27%

Argentina-LW

23.2

5

53.50

0.00

76.7

5

38.00

1.68

12.00

51.68

25.0

7

49%

Argentina-WAOB

24.45

53.50

0.00

77.95

38.00

1.68

12.00

51.68

26.27

51%

Paraguay-LW

0.0

0

8.40

0.02

8.4

2

3.30

0.13

5.00

8.43

-0.0

1

0%

Paraguay-WAOB

0.87

8.40

0.02

9.29

3.30

0.13

5.00

8.43

0.86

10%

Other-WAOB

14.21

45.91

103.97

164.09

115.04

22.70

9.25

146.99

17.10

12%

Table

14:2013/14worldsoybeansupplyanduse(milliontons).Lanworthestimatesareboldface.WA

OBestimatesarefromtheJulyWASDE.



15/16


16/16


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