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From the Desk of President Ketan Desai President Sanjay Punjabi [email protected] Editor Volume II | Issue X | 3rd March 2020 In an age of uncertainty, peering 15 years into the future may seem like hubris. But ignoring long-term trends—demographic, economic, corporate—is an even less attractive option. Understanding the long term future is vital in ensuring that strategies are sustainable, that opportunities are identified at an early stage and that challenges are addressed before they become insurmountable. Exactly how to improve knowledge-work productivity is one of the most important economic issues of our time. Companies that begin to grapple with this challenge now will be best placed to seize the opportunities of the future. Domestic credit conditions remain tight, as market concerns in the shadow banking sector have persisted for too long. Thus, we believe India's growth is set to slow further in Q4, delaying the recovery expected by consensus. We look forward to having your views about the current economy in the upcoming issues of Infozine. Editorial WORLD ECONOMY

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Page 1: WORLD ECONOMY - SGCCI

From the Desk of President

Ketan Desai President

Sanjay [email protected]

Editor

Volume II | Issue X | 3rd March 2020

In an age of uncertainty, peering 15 years into the future may seem likehubris. But ignoring long-term trends—demographic, economic,corporate—is an even less attractive option. Understanding the longterm future is vital in ensuring that strategies are sustainable, thatopportunities are identified at an early stage and that challenges areaddressed before they become insurmountable.Exactly how to improve knowledge-work productivity is one of the mostimportant economic issues of our time. Companies that begin to grapplewith this challenge now will be best placed to seize the opportunities ofthe future.

Domestic credit conditions remain tight, as market concerns in the shadow bankingsector have persisted for too long. Thus, we believe India's growth is set to slow furtherin Q4, delaying the recovery expected by consensus. We look forward to having yourviews about the current economy in the upcoming issues of Infozine.

Editorial

WORLD ECONOMY

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U.S. President Donald Trump’s first state visit to India signifies the growing strength ofthe bilateral relationship between Washington and New Delhi, Bharatiya Janata Party’sRamMadhav told CNBC.One area where India and the U.S. have increased cooperation is defense procurement,which includes recent approval for New Delhi to purchase $2.6 billion worth ofhelicopters from American defense firm Lockheed Martin.Madhav said defense deals done with the U.S. would not affect India’s pact withRussia, which has been its traditional military supplier.

US President Donald Trump, along with his wife Melania, arrived in Delhi aftercompleting their engagements in Ahmedabad and taking a family trip to the Taj Mahalin Agra. Next day, Trump received a ceremonial welcome at the Rashtrapati Bhavan asper the protocol. From there, he went to Rajghat and paid homage to the samadhi ofMahatma Gandhi. He then held a meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Healsol met President Ram Nath Kovind before leaving for the United States by his specialflight at 10 tonight.

1. Donald Trump India Visit

CAPSULES

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US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said ties between his country and India havenever been as good as they are now at a joint press briefing with Prime MinisterNarendra Modi. He expressed hope that India and the US could reach a trade deal"that will be of great importance to both countries", and announced agreements forIndia to purchase more than $3 billion in advanced US military equipment, includingApache and MH60 Romeo choppers. Donald Trump's bungled pronunciation of Indiannames did not escape global attention -- the UK's Guardian newspaper devoted aheadline to his mention of "Soo-chin" Tendulkar.

2. Coronavirus and Trade

Coronavirus has so far infected more than 60,000 people worldwide and claimed thelives of over 1,400 in China—surpassing the toll from the SARS outbreak of 2002-03.The World Health Organisation (WHO) has officially declared it a global healthemergency. The virus, which has now infected people in more than 25 countries, hassent alarm bells ringing across global capital markets. As trade gets disrupted anddemand for commodities in China turns soft, Indian companies are likely to feel theheat as well. This could also impact the stock markets.At a macro level, the economic consequences of such an outbreak are profound. As perthe WTO, China is the biggest exporter and second-biggest importer of merchandise. Itplays a crucial role in the global value chain as a hub of both demand and supply. It isalso India’s largest trading partner, accounting for the biggest share (14%) of imports.Any long-term disruption in the economic activity in China is bound to keep themarkets on tenterhooks. Citi has already downgraded China’s full-year year growthforecast from 5.8% to 5.5%.

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Some segments may benefit:Falling crude oil prices will benefit manufacturers of paints and plastics, with shares ofAsian Paints, Berger Paints, Kansai Nerolac and Supreme Industries likely to benefit.Domestic chemical makers could also gain. China’s Hubei province, at the epicentre ofthe virus outbreak, boasts a sizeable chemicals industry.Disruption of production in the region may raise the prices for Indian chemical players.“If coronavirus continues to spread, it could impact production and we could produceand we could see dyestuff prices rally,” as per JM Financial. Aarti Industries could be anindirect beneficiary, while large players like UPL and PI Industries may see it as anopportunity to seize the market share and grab the space being vacated by Chinesefirms. However, the benefit may not extend to higher exports, feels Kunj Bansal,Partner & CIO, Acepro Advisors. “Chinese manufacturing capacity is too big. Indianmanufacturers are not in a position to fill this production gap as their own capacity isconstrained.”

3. Three milk unions of Gujarat to become billion-dollar entities

Banas Dairy, Amul-Fed Dairy (a GCMMF unit) and Amul Dairy are expected to becomebillion dollar entities by March 31, this year. The benchmark was hit by the GujaratCooperative Milk Marketing Federation (GCMMF) (marketers of brand Amul) 12 yearsago.In a report published by The Times of India, both Banas and Amul, who had startedoperations in Gujarat, have expanded their business in areas outside the state as well.In January this year, the Banas Dairy’s highest collection was of 73.75 lakh litres per day,which is the highest procured milk by any dairy union in Asia.

Gujarat Cooperative Milk MarketingFederation managing director RS Sodhicredited growth of the industry to the factthat a good procurement price is paid tothe dairy farmers. Furthermore, accordingto the report Amul’s worth itself isexpected to be $ 7.1 billion, while 18member unions are likely to touch the Rs

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50,000 crore mark by the end of the financial year. Gujarat Cooperative Milk MarketingFederation as of now is running 84 dairy processing plants in and outside the state.

4. Innovatively designed diamond packets with better security in the offing

This new design is the brainchild of Shree Ramkrishna Exports Surat: This could be asmall, but an important discovery to provide better security to the diamonds duringtrading. Since its inception, the diamond industry has been using traditional packetsmade out of paper to store the precious stones. Every time, the diamond merchantsand manufacturers must fold and unfold the packets during the trading deals to showthe diamonds. There are chances of losing a few diamonds during the trading process.After the deal is struck, the diamond packets are destroyed.A De Beers sightholder company, Shree Ramkrishna Exports (SRK) has come up with aninnovative design of the diamond packets for better security. These diamond packetsare reusable and that the diamonds could be seen from a transparent peep-in window,which gives the diamond owners surety about the physical presence of diamonds in thepacket without opening it.Talking with TOI, director of SRK, Shreyans Dholakia said, “We were working on thedesign of diamond packets for the last three years. The packets called ‘window of hope’are environment friendly and made out of the high quality reusable paper. Unlike thetraditional packets, these packets offer complete security as the owner does have tofold and unfold the packet to see the diamonds.”Dholakia added, “We had applied for the patent for the diamond packets, but laterwithdrew in the wider interest of the diamond industry.The entire diamond industry

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will be able to use the innovative diamond packets in the coming days.” According toDholakia, there are thousands of diamond offices in Surat and Mumbai where lakhs ofcarats of diamonds are stored traditional packets.Imagine the time consumed in folding and unfolding of the packets and the waste ofpaper once the diamonds exchange hands.President of the Surat Diamond Association (SDA), Babu Kathiriya said, “Diamondpaper packets have been used in the industry for decades. You need to fold and unfoldthe packets every time you show the diamonds to others. In the process, sometimes,there are chances of losing a few diamonds. A few cases were reported where theconman duped diamond traders with stones in the packet. There is a need to securethe diamonds while trading.”

5. Surat to get 150 buses

Surat to get 150 electric buses in one year. Surat Municipal Corporation (SMC) will getsubsidy to purchase 150 electric buses in the phased manner during the next one year,for which it has already received Rs 13.5 crore as the first installment from the uniongovernment.According to SMC officials, these buses have been sanctioned under Phase-II of FasterAdoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles in India Scheme (FAME India Scheme)of Department of Heavy Industry (Ministry of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises).With this, the civic body officials expect to run around 75 electric buses on Bus RapidTransportation System (BRTS) routes in the city from Diwali onwards. This will be amajor boost to Surat’s effort for clean mobility in the public transportation system.

6. SMC to Set 27 New Zones for Street Vendors

The new vending zones will come up in Rander, Limbayat, Althan, Katargam and Athwazones of the SMC . According to the SMC officials, at present, there are over 52 existingvending zones in the city, but in many areas, new vending zones are needed to supportstreet vendors.

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According to the SMC officials, at present, there are over 52 existing vending zones inthe city, but in many areas, new vending zones are needed to support street vendors.In the absence of any dedicated space for vending, vegetable vendors are left with nooption but to be on the streets for vending, causing traffic snarls in the city. The civicbody plans to set up 27 new vending zones in different parts of the city with the costof Rs 76 crore.The new vending zones will accommodate 3,339 vendors in the city. These vendingzones will be built under the central government’s National Urban Livelihoods Mission(NULM)’s Support to Urban Street Vendors (SUSV) programme.

7. State GSDP grows 9.2% in 2018-19

The gross state domestic product (GSDP) at constant-price in the year 2018-19 grew by9.2% against the year 2017-18. The GSDP was estimated to be 11,90,121 crores in2018-19 as against 10,89,811 crore in 2017-18.

Gujarat has achieved the distinction of being one of the most industrially developedstates. It accounts for five per cent of the total Indian population and contributes abouta quarter of India’s goods exports. The state ranks first in terms of total area coveredunder SEZs in India. It is also a leading SEZ state with the highest geographical area of29,423.9 hectares under SEZ development.

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As of November 2019, Gujarat had 20 operational SEZs. In addition to operational SEZs,Gujarat had four SEZs with valid in-principle approvals, 28 SEZs with formal approvalsand 24 SEZs with notified approvals. Overall exports from Gujarat increased 22 percent in 2017-18 to US$ 66 billion.According to the DPIIT, FDI inflows to Gujarat totalled US$ 23,184 million from April2000 to June 2019. Up to October 2019, 367 investment intentions worth Rs 218,611crore (US$ 31.28 billion) were filed in Gujarat.

Events @ SGCCI

MSME representation @ Delhi

Seminar on Brand Power to Power your Brand

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Session on Pelvic Floor Rehabilitation

Awareness Session on Cleaner Production: A way towards Sustainable Development

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Meeting regarding Issues/Suggestions/Representation for Textile Policy 2020

Chamber Premier League Tennis Cricket Tournament

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Session on Opportunities in Ethiopia by Mr. Demeke Ambulo, Ethiopia Consul General

National Brand conclave

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Atul Pathak | Sanjay Punjabi | Ambrish Bhatt | Ganpat Bhansali