World in 2060 Final Version-3

7/31/2019 World in 2060 Final Version-3

1/40

DAYARAYANMANAGEMENT&CONSULTING

World in 2060

Rise and Fall ofRise and Fall ofRise and Fall ofRise and Fall of TopTopTopTop Economic PowerEconomic PowerEconomic PowerEconomic Powerssss

S U I T E 1 0 0 0 - 3 5 5 B U R R A R D S T R E E T V A N C O U V E R B C V 6 C 2 G 8


2/40

World in 2060 or Rise and fall of Top Economic PowerBy: Gholamhossein DavaniNYSSCPA, CAAA, APCBC, CFE, IICA

It is about 15 years that China and emerging economic are main problem for

traditional economic power. In 1900, London was the capital of the world. Aswas famously remarked, The Sun never set on the British empire. EuropeanImperialist nations were grabbing colonies in Asia, Africa and Latin America.All the great superpowers were prospering, although at the expense of theircolonies. One would have expected the world to be peaceful and stable aseveryone was gaining. By the 1950s, the United Kingdom was replaced as thesuperpower by one of its former colonies, the United States of America. Afterthe Second World War the two super power controlled all the around the worldand cold war replace real war. By the fall down Soviet Union and finishing coldwar the globalization process was raise but with credit crisis and also financial

crisis after 2007 ,this is an effort by every body to predict what the world maybe by 2030, 2050 or 2060 ?!The main indicators to compare world economy are Gross Domestic Product(GDP) based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) that public people dontunderstand what PPP is?!!After Raise of China Dragon and especially financial crisis 2002, all advancedcountries were looking head "What happen in future" .In 2003, Goldman Sachsattempted to project which countries had the potential to become the world'slargest economies over the next fifty years. in the other hand Price Water House& Coopers (PWC) the World top accounting firm also published special report

was named world in 2050 .PWC presented new model for future economyprojection but six months after PWC report Credit Crisis was begun that hasn'testimated by any professional economist in spite that they were declare to canprojection future economy!!I am certified public accountant but interested in political economy and many ofmy articled are about political economy and Economic development .I reviewand study carefully all articles and published related to future economy and findthat majority researcher use only one method to compare world differenteconomic to show which economic is stronger or bigger .This method is namedPPP.


3/40

3

What is PPP?!A purchasing power parity (PPP) between two countries, A and B, is the ratio ofthe number of units of country As currency needed to purchase in country Athe same quantity of a specific good or service as one unit of country Bscurrency will purchase in country B. PPPs can be expressed in the currency of

either of the countries. In practice, they are usually computed among largenumbers of countries and expressed in terms of a single currency, with the U.S.dollar (US$) most commonly used as the base or numeracies currency" -Global Purchasing Power Parities and Real Expenditures. 2005 International

Comparison Program. The World Bank.The review of PPP shows this scale and indicator is not reasonable and logicalto compare different economic as capital is social relation so we need severalfactors to compare these relation, especially when we want to use "Superpower" terminology in economic and political .The super power is not onlyword or sound but super power has some specific factors.

Which factors are necessary for economic super power?!To be economic super power the country must be have necessary several factorsas same as:

1- Population2- Natural resources3- Human resources ( people educated)4- Personal economic out put5- GDP per capital6- Area

7- Strong Military8- Democracy and transparency9- Good governance10-Access to water and healthy for population

For example countries with the most highly educated citizens are also some ofthe wealthiest in the world. The United States, Japan and Canada are on our listand also have among the largest GDPs. Norway and Australia, also featured,have the second and sixth-highest GDPs per capita, respectively. All thesecountries aggressively invest in education. The countries that invest the most ineducation have the most-educated people. All of the best-educated countries,

except for the UK, fall within the top 15 OECD countries for greatest spendingon tertiary that is, college or college-equivalent spending as a percentageof GDP. The U.S. spends the second most and Canada spends the fourth most.Interestingly, public expenditure on educational institutions relative to privatespending by these countries is small compared with other countries in theOECD. While the majority of education is still funded with public money, eightof the countries on our list rely the least on public funding as a percentage oftotal education spending.


4/40

4

Table (1) Top 10 Educated Countries 2012

Rank CountryAve. Annual

Growrate 1999-2009

PopulationWith

postsecondary

GDP PerCapital

Pop. Growrate

(2000-2009)

1 Canada 2.30% 50% 39,070 9.89%

2 Israel 3.2 45% 28,596 19.02%

3 Japan 3.20% 44% 33,751 0.46

4 USA 1.40% 41% 46,588 8.68%

5 New Zealand 3.50% 40% 29,871 11.88

6 S. Korea 5.30% 39% 29,101 3.70%

7 Norway 2.7 37% 56,617 7.52%

8 UK 4% 37% 35,504 3.47%

9 Australia 3.30% 37% 40,719 14.63%

10 Finland 1.80% 37% 36,585 3.15%Source: www.247wallst.com

Although develop countries spend so much more than emerging countries onresearch and development (R&D) that this index shows access knowledgebase product. Table below shows what percentage of GDP allocated to R&Din developed countries.

Table (2) - Research and development spending to GDP 2011

Rank Country

Expenditureson R&D

($Bln. PPP)

% ofGDP PPP

1 USA 405.3 2.7%

2 China 153.7 1.4%

3 Japan 144.1 3.3%4 Germany 69.5 2.3%

5 S. Korea 44.8 3.0%

6 France 42.2 1.9%

7 UK 38.4 1.7%

8 India 36.1 0.9%

9 Canada 24.3 1.8%

10 Russia 23.1 1.0%

11 Brazil 19.4 0.9%

12 Italy 19 1.1%

13 Taiwan 19 2.3%

14 Spain 17.2 1.3%

15 Australia 15.9 1.7%

16 Sweden 11.9 3.3%

17 Netherlands 10.8 1.6%

18 Israel 9.4 4.2%

19 Austria 8.3 2.5%

20 Swiss 7.5 2.3%


5/40

5

In spite that China might overtake the US to become the largest economy in theworld before 2017, and even might be India can take over US by 2050 in GDPby base of PPP but realty it is joke that we can accept India or China can bemain competitor US Economy that I will show in GDP nominal they are so

different .Unfortunately all comparison has been done by everyone ,allestimates are based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), an economic growthindicator that takes into account the purchasing power of each country'scurrency, instead of the prevailing exchange rate conversion. For exampleChina economy is expected to be nearly $Bln. 88,086 on PPP basis by 2060from $ Bln.11,290 in 2011. Our report said China will pass the US as thelargest economy in the world in 2025 with purchase power parity US GDP willbe $ Bln. 22,749 in compare with China GDP $ Bln.23,774 so China will beahead of US with more than $ Bln. 1,025

The US was the worlds largest economy for about a century, since the British

Empire suffered severely in the Second World War. China can now look for areign on the throne for about 30-40 years before the currently fastest growingmajor economy, India, is likely to surpass them. India became the worlds thirdlargest economy current year and passed Japan with the help of their growingpopulation and will challenge the size of the US economy in a decade.USCompanies are 132 as 500 top largest companies against China 86 and Japan 68in 2012.

Even though China will pass the US in total, the US will be the second largesteconomy after 2025 and is still by far the nation with the biggest GDP per

capita with $ 59,088 followed by China as$ 17,942 that US GDP per capitalwill 3.29 times more than China.

Comparison of GDP per capita level and contrary to most expectations, the USwould continue to be the leading global superpower. Even today despite therecession, the US GDP per capital in 2025 will be estimated more than the nextfour nations put together. Especially demographics of the US would beradically different as the white majority today will be overtaken by huge influxof intelligent immigrants and also a secular and democratic state, the US wouldbe the leader in technology, military as well as the global economy. In the otherhand don't forget that new emerging economic would be top large economy in

1800 age. Look at the below table that shows GDP period 1700-1973.


6/40

6

Table (3)-GDP Comparison 1700- 1973

The above table emphasis the new emerging market would be super power 18th

and 19th. Age!!

Year 1700 1870 1913 1950 1973

USA 0.5 98 517 1455 3536

Russian 16 83 232 510 1513

UK 10 100 347 675 1280

Japan 15 25 71 161 1242

India 90 134 204 222 494

Germany 13 72 237 265 944

France 19 72 144 220 683

China 82 189 241 244 739

Italy 14 41 95 164 582

Spain 7 19 41 61 266

Mexico 25 6 25 67 279

World 371 1,110 2,733 5,331 16,022


7/40


8/40

But what was happened after 2000?!Table below shows changing process to world GDP after 2000 that is hugedifferent with table (4).

Table (5)- Historical World GDP 2000-2060

Year $Bln USD Year $ Bln-USD2060 350,000 1990 27,537

2040 210,000 1970 12,137

2030 145,000 1950 4081

2020 111,088 1940 3001

2017 98,041 1920 1733

2015 74,604 1900 1102

2010 56,794 1875 568.8

2000 41,016 1700 99.8

A natural rivalry will arise between the US and China of which the signs are

evident even today. Looking to seek revenge, the rule in China will becomeeven more dictatorial and anti-US sentiment will grow specially they think allmatters related to Middle East and replace US army in Afghan and Iraq is by thecontrol oil and Gas resources to control China and India grow . I arranged allmain economic keys are these two countries in table (3) to can compare whyWE and China could be super power!!


9/40

9

Table (6)- Comparison Key Economic Facts US and China

Key Fact USA China Key Fact USA China

GDO-Current USD 14,660 5,875 Industrial output2008-B-USD 3,073 2,104

GDP-PPPB-USD 14,660 10,900 Agricultural output2008-USDB 183 489

%World Export 28.11 29.7 Meat Product 2008-Tonnes 43 74

% of world Goods Export 8.4 10.4 Fruit Product-2008M-Tonnes 28 107

%of world services export 42.17 17.3 vegetable-M -Tonnes 36 457

Trade balance 2008 (504) 426 Cereal-M-Tonnes 481 403Official Reserve B-USD 132 2,876 Wheat 1000 Tonnes-2009 60,400 115,100

Official Gold Reserve B-USD 284 36 Rice -1000Tonnes -200 --- 136,570

Industrial output 2008B-USD 1,831 1.85 Coarsegrains-1000-Tonnes 349,000 164,900

Services Out put 2008 B-USD 10,562 1,734 Tea - 1000Tonnes 2009 --- 1,203Cooper-1000Tnnes-2009 1.204 691 Raw wool-1000 Tonnes 2009 --- 167Lead - 1000Tonnes 409 1,908 Cotton1000Tonnes2009 2,654 6,925

Zink-1000Tonnes 690 3,092 Major oilseeds-1000Tonnes 2009-10 100,410 72,540

Tin-1000Tonnes --- 128 Oil-1000 barrel per day 7,513 4,071

Nikel-1000Tonnes --- Mar-00 Natural gas B-cubic metric 2010 611 96.8Aluminium-1000tonnes 1.727 12,846 Coal -M-Tonnes 552 1,800

Precious metal -Tonnes 223 314 Energy product-M-Tonnes 1,665 1,814

Platinum-Tonnes 7.4 - -- Energy consumers - M-tonnes 2,284 2,116

Rubber-1000Tonnes 1,962 3,500 innovation index 5,65 ?

%R&D Expenditure to GDP 2.76 1.54 Car produt-1000 5,711 13,790

No.Patents2006-008 82,284 34,537 Road network -1000Km 6,486 3,799Direct Foreign Invest B-USD 316 108 Railway network- 1000Km 226 63.6

Share of Top 24 big Company 14 2 Merchant fleets 1,782 3,499

Share of Top 15 banks - -- 3 No. household-M 117 384Stock Market 17,139 4,769 Energy largest producer M-Tonnes 1,993 1,705


10/40

10

The world economy grew was %5 in 2010. That its fastest rate for many years,led by the extraordinary boom in China and very high growth in most otherthird world countries too. America and Japan also had fairly strong growth,although Western Europe had a more dismal performance but in 2011 the grow

rate decreased to %3.9. Can the good times be appears in next year Or is theworld economy heading for a crisis?

Table (7) Main index famous economy 2011

Index UK Germany France USA

GDP Real Grow rate (2.3) (1.4) 0.5 (1.8)

%Net government Debt to GDP 97.2 87.3 102.4 103.6

Grow rate of GDP 0.6 0.6 0.2 2.3

Inflation 3.4 2.3 2.3 2.9

Source: Financial times Jan. 2012

What was happened that the world economic boom has beendriven?!The several economists researcher report emphasis that the world economicboom has been driven by two factors that first is t it has been driven by agradual special economic in China, India, Brazil and even Russia that said "Control government market " . The average tariff level in a country like Chinahas been lowered from 41% in 1992 to 6% in 2004. The increased newcapitalism ( Controlled Market ) of world trade has increased the scope of

international division of labor and permanently helped raise growth in the worldas a whole and in particular in third-world countries. Particularly if trade isfreed even more, this factor should continue to help the world economy toprosper. Another reason for the increased growth in emerging economies is thefree market reforms implemented there with a country like China transformingitself from one of the most destructive communist systems in the history ofmankind (that is saying a lot) to a virtual "capitalist paradise" with a seeminglyendless supply of cheap but competent labor and with no welfare state and nounions and with many other emerging economies also undertaking free marketreforms of varying radicalism.To better understand the prospects for the world economy, should analyze inmore detail the strengths and weaknesses of the four main economicpowerhouses of the world, was named BRIC includes Brazil ,Russia ,India andChina (BRIC) .Remind that BRIC is a grouping acronym that refers to thecountries of Brazil, Russia, India and China, which are all deemed to be at asimilar stage of newly advanced economic development. It is typically renderedas "the BRICs" or "the BRIC countries" or "the BRIC economies" oralternatively as the "Big Four"- Wikipedia-.


11/40

11

Brazil is currently growing at a relatively slow pace, with seasonally-adjustedfirst quarter real GDP growth of 0.2% over the previous quarter. The economyis suffering from a weak and volatile Real which although helps exporters,harms companies who have borrowed in US$. Consumer demand remains

strong however bolstered by low unemployment, which is has averaged 5.9% inthe first four months of 2012. Brazil has moderately free markets and aninward-oriented economy. Its economy is the largest in Latin American nationsand the second largest in the western hemisphere. Brazil is one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world with an average annual GDP growth rateof over 5 percent. Brazilian GDP was $ Bln.2,172 in 2011 . The Brazilianeconomy has been predicted to become one of the four largest economies in theworld in the decades to come.Russia has a market economy with enormous natural resources, particularly oiland natural gas. It has the 12th largest economy in the world by nominal GDP

and the 7th largest by purchasing power parity (PPP). Since the turn of the 21stcentury, higher domestic consumption and greater political stability havebolstered economic growth in Russia. The country ended 2008 with its ninthstraight year of growth, averaging 7% annually. Growth was primarily drivenby non-traded services and goods for the domestic market, as opposed to oil ormineral extraction and exports. The average salary in Russia was $640 permonth in early 2008, up from $80 in 2000. Approximately 13.7% of Russianslived below the national poverty line in 2010, significantly down from 40% in1998 at the worst of the post-Soviet collapse. Unemployment in Russia was at6% in 2007, down from about 12.4% in 1999. The middle class has grown from

just 8 million persons in 2000 to 55 million persons in 2006.Russia's problem is not economic and it has never been economic it is basicallya moral problem and until that problem is solved, no reasonable economicsystem, no market economy...has a chance of taking root there. Russia'stransition from "Governmental Capitalism to "criminal capitalism" hadoccurred in three stages includes hyperinflation, privatization, andcriminalization. Hyperinflation began on 1992, when the Gaidar governmentfreed virtually all prices, consequently wiping out the life-savings of millions ofRussians. Oil, natural gas, metals, and timber account for more than 80% ofRussian exports abroad. Since 2003, however, exports of natural resources

started decreasing in economic importance as the internal market strengthenedconsiderably. Despite higher energy prices, oil and gas only contribute to 5.7%of Russias GDP and the government predicts this will drop to 3.7% by 2011.Oil export earnings allowed Russia to increase its foreign reserves from $12billion in 1999 to $597.3 billion on 1 August 2008, the third largest foreignexchange reserves in the world. The macroeconomic policy under FinanceMinister Alexei Kudrin was prudent and sound, with excess income beingstored in the Stabilization Fund of Russia. In 2006, Russia repaid most of its


12/40

12

formerly massive debts, leaving it with one of the lowest foreign debts amongmajor economies. The Stabilization Fund helped Russia to come out of theglobal financial crisis in a much better state than many experts had expected.According to the International Monetary Fund, Indias nominal GDP stood at$Bln-Us 1,676, which makes it the eleventh-largest economy in the world,

corresponding to a per capita income of $ US 1100. If purchasing power parity(PPP) is taken into account, Indias economy is the fourth largest in the world at$Bln-Us 4,460. With an average annual GDP growth rate of 5.8% for the pasttwo decades, India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Withan estimated population in 2050 of 1.63 billion, India will thus have a per capitaincome of over $53,000 - in the range of today's wealthiest countries likeSwitzerland and Norway. Sounds too good to be true? Of course it is. As Japanforeign debt is growing up and country's debt is projected to be 239% of thesize of its economy by the end of 2012, according to the IMF. No other countryis even close so India takes over Japan rank.

India has the worlds second largest labour force, with 467 million people. Interms of output, the agricultural sector accounts for 28% of GDP; the serviceand industrial sectors make up 54% and 18% respectively. Major agriculturalproducts include rice, wheat, oilseed, cotton, jute, tea, sugarcane, potatoes.Major industries include textiles, telecommunications, chemicals, foodprocessing, steel, transport equipment, cement, mining, petroleum, machineryand software. Indias external trade has reached a relatively moderate share of24% of GDP in 2006, up from 6% in 1985. In 2008, Indias share of world tradewas about 1.68%; in 2009, it was the worlds fifteenth largest importer andeighteenth largest exporter. Major exports include petroleum products, textile

goods, gems and jewelry, software, engineering goods, chemicals, and leathermanufactures. Major imports include crude oil, machinery, gems, fertilizer, andchemicals. In India, inflation remains a concern with the wholesale index priceaccelerating in April to 7.2% (seasonally-adjusted) on a year earlier reversingprevious falls. Industrial output and exports have also registered falls and thereare increasing fears about a slowdown in consumer demand as well as theimpact of the euro zone crisis. These trends combined to produce seasonally-adjusted real GDP growth of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2012 over the previousquarter. India being democratic will continue on its path to development and Inview of its continuing robust growth, India is expected to be the world's largest

economy by 2050, surpassing China and the United States, a City report said.India will be inducted into the Security Council as a permanent member alongwith Brazil. Asia will become bi-polar with India and China leading two camps,one based on democracy with the other bolstering communist and autocraticrule.

China will continue to grow in the beginning of the 21st century. Chinaeconomic grow rate between 1989-1999 was 9.9 and between 1992-2009 was10.3 the highest economic grow and must relax its grip on industry and move


13/40

13

towards a Control -market economy, and World Bank has said in a report thatforecast the country would become the world's largest economy before 2030.Chinas GDP for 2011 was $Bln.10,085 the second world largest economy afterUSA. The trade weighted tariff rate is 4.2% with layers of non-tariff barriersadding to the cost of trade. The investmentregim is non-transparent and

inefficient. The state control of the financial system as its primery means therest of economy. The government owns all large financial institution .Whichlend according to state priorities and directives and large state enterprise withinflation rate as 3.3%.China relies very little to foreign borrowing and its growth id financial fromresources extracted from its own population, not from fickle foreigners free toflee, as happened in South-East Asia and happening again in Euro zone!!.China s saving rate ,at 51% of GDP, is even higher than its investment ratethis opportunity allows china access to jump to capital per head and if china canaccess to $40,000 per head their economy size will be equal $Bln.54 that

would be 3.7 times more that US size!! But according to official (Nominal)GDP statistics converted at current exchange rates, in all indirect indicators ofeconomic size, the Chinese economy is the second largest in the world, forexample, the biggest consumer of coal, steel, and many other commodities andthe second biggest consumer of oil (after America). Of course, there arepotential dangers for China which could at least temporarily derail its stronggrowth. The fast transition of the country could potentially create great socialunrest. The Chinese banking system looks very fragile as it is heavily burdenedby bad loans. Moreover, China is far too dependent on exports to America.China's exports to America last year were some 12% of GDP and the bilateral

trade surplus was 10% of GDP. This makes China very vulnerable to aneconomic downturn in America. First because of its direct negative effect onexports and second because China is likely to be blamed for the crisis whichcould create a protectionist backlash which will severely damage the Chineseeconomy. This means that while the short-term outlook for the Chineseeconomy is strong, it risks heavy damages from any economic crisis inAmerica, something which in turn poses risks for social unrest and for thefragile banking system. China policy maker are very intelligent that couldsupervisory and marker controlled to avoid financial criss same USA or Europe.The story for some of the other major emerging economies, like Brazil, India

and Russia, have many similarities with that of China as they have also startedto liberalize their economies, something which has helped boost their growthrates. Their potential may not be as great as that of China because their culturesare not as inclined towards thrift and entrepreneurship as the Chinese cultureand because in the case of Brazil and Russia their populations are much smallerand in the case of Russia shrinking. India is also still plagued by the unofficialcaste system which makes it more difficult to spread the success to the entirepopulation than in China. The Russian and Brazilian economies are also to a


14/40

14

dangerously high extent dependent on oil and agriculture respectively. Even so,they and many other emerging economies will likely increase in importance.

We propose in compare world economy, should be show GDP and GDP percapital to find which economic is stronger so table (6) compare these range.

Note that inspite that GDP per head some countries same Iran and Persian GolfCountries are higher than China and India but their GDP are related to exportOil and Gas not Industry product .


15/40

15

Table (8)- Comparison GDP & GDP per Head 2011GDP

Per HeadGDP at

PPPGDP

Per Head GDP at PPPCountry

USD $Bln-USD

Country

USD $Bln-USD

USA 47,200 14,657 Japan 33,805 4,309

Europe 32,700 14,820 S.Korea 29,836 1,459

World 10,886 74,264 Russian 15,837 2,222

Canada 38,989 1,330 Mexico 14,430 1,567

Germany 36,033 2,940 Brazil 11,239 2,172

Taiwan 35,227 821 China 7,650 10,085

UK 34,920 2,172 India 3,339 4,060

France 34,077 2,145 Iran 10,866 818

Source: CIA FactBook 2012Review of historical GDP per capital after Second World War in 1954 (table 9)and compare with table (8) shows how Courtiers replaces with others .

Table (9) GDP per Capital in 1954

Rank Country GPC-$US Rank Country GPC-$ US

1 USA 9,573 13 Norway 4,969

2 Swiss 8,939 14 Germany 4,281

3 New Zealand 8,495 15 Finland 4,131

4 Venezuela 7,424 16 Italy 3,425

5 Australia 7,218 17 Russia 3,106

6 Canada 7,047 18 Spain 2,397

7 Sweden 6,738 19 Mexico 2,085

8 Danish 6,683 20 Japan 1,873

9 Netherlands 5,850 21 Turkey 1,299

10 Mexico 5,348 22 S. Korea 876

11 France 5,221 23 China 614

12 Argentina 4,987 24 India 597


16/40

16

Table (10) shows the progressive main player in economic zone from 1990 to2017 that all readers find how emerging economic step by step grows thispower.

Table (10) - Comparison Top 16 Largest Economy 1980-2017($Bln-USD)

Country 2017 2015 2012 2010 2005 2000 1990 1980 % AverageGrow 37year

USA 19,704 17,788 15,609 14,526 12,622 9,951 5,800 2,788 706

Japan 5324 52024 4588 4380 3889 3255 2370 996 534

Germany 3655 3440 3158 2944 2492 2144 1446 762 479

France 2667 2476 2257 2134 1860 1533 1030 536 497

UK 2838 2594 2308 2199 1993 1487 933 472 601

Italy 2062 1943 1834 1800 1641 1404 976 509 405

Spain 1625 1514 1405 1374 1184 900 551 272 597

Canada 1753 1617 1448 1334 1132 888 542 272 644

China 20336 16670 12,387 10128 5364 3014 1943 987 2060Brazil 3120 2825 2393 2186 1584 1234 786 445 701

India 7574 6276 4824 4069 2431 1571 744 286 2646

Russian 3295 2950 2510 2237 1696 1120 0 0 2941

Mexico 2242 2028 1743 1564 1297 1065 612 336 667

Indonesia 1829 1542 1208 1034 705 501 276 107 17093

Turkey 1476 1303 1112 969 747 513 291 116 12724

S. Korea 2148 1918 1629 1468 1096 775 335 87 24689Source: IMF

We think the GDP based in PPP isn't a reasonable economic index to comparedifferent economy because in metropolis countries official and PPP are similarbut in emerging countries same China, India, Brazil and Mexico these scale arevery different. The environmental, social and political challenges oftransformation have largely been ignored in the model. One does however hopethat the necessary precursors like education, good governance and health caresystem which countries like Brazil and Russia require to achieve the level ofeconomic as described in this scenario, will also help these countries overcomeand work with the inevitable challenges that economic growth will bring.Price Waterhouse Coopers LLP explored this in a report, entitled The World in2050: Beyond the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China): a broader look at

the emerging market growth prospects. This interesting analysis uses currentdata to examine the 17 largest economies and the 13 emerging economies andsets projections for 2050.It supplants the current G7 (US, Japan, Italy, UK, France, Canada, Germany)with a group of emerging country E7 (which includes China, India, Brazil,Mexico, Russia, and Turkey) projecting that the emerging economies willovertake them by 2050 by 50 percent. According to this report, China is seen to


17/40

17

surpass the US by 2025, while India is seen to reach this level of growth by2050. As mentioned in a recent post, China is already moving away from low-end manufacturing which is going offshore to places like Vietnam, Bangladeshand the Philippines, which interestingly form part of the top ten next waves ofemerging nations. PWC projects that Vietnam will grow to 70 percent of the

UK economy by 2050.China surpassed the US last year to become the second largest exporter in theworld behind Germany. PWC projects that by 2050 Brazils economy could belarger than Japans, and the Turkish economy be as large as Italys economy.Part of the reason put forward is the opportunity for increased internalinvestment and growth in wealth leading to growth in domestic consumption. Itis very wonder that PWC projected world in 2050 in 2007 but couldntestimated about credit crisis and financial crisis that was happened next 6months after they reported.!!

According to data statics of international sources as IMF, World BankWikipedia arranged special table as follow to the top historical economy powertill 2011 and projection for 2017 .Table (11) shows after second world war UShas been world top spot economy and Soviet Union before collapse was beensecond superpower till 1980 .


18/40

18

Table (11) Historical ranking 20 top World Economic 1970-201

Rank 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

1 USA USA USA USA USA USA USA

2 Soviet Union Soviet Union Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan

3 Germany Japan Soviet Union Soviet Union Germany Germany Germany

4 Japan Germany Germany Germany France France UK

5 France France France France Italy UK France

6 UK UK UK UK UK Italy China

7 Italy Italy Italy Italy Soviet Union Brazil Italy

8 China Canada Canada Canada Canada China Canada

9 Canada China China China Spain Spain Brazil

10 India Brazil Spain India Brazil Canada Mexico

11 Australia Spain Mexico Brazil China S. Korea Spain

12 Spain Australia Brazil Mexico Australia Netherlands S. Korea

13 Mexico India India Australia India Australia India

14 Brazil Mexico Netherlands Spain Netherlands Russia Australia

15 Sweden Netherlands Saudi Arabia Netherlands Mexico India Netherlands

16 Netherlands Sweden Australia Iran S. Korea Switzerland Taiwan

17 Argentina Belgium Sweden Sweden Sweden Mexico Argentina

18 Poland Switzerland Belgium Saudi Arabia Switzerland Belgium Turkey

19 Belgium Turkey Argentina Switzerland Belgium Taiwan Russia

20 Turkey Argentina Switzerland S. Korea Turkey Argentina Switzerland


19/40


20/40

20

World Foreign Debt or Asiel ahead of developed countries :World foreign debt crisis that begin from 1995 is ashiel ahead of developedcountry in compare with emerging countries that allows China be main ownerof International market!

Table (13)- Comparison total Debt 2011

Country% governmentDebt to GDP

% ForeignDebt to GDP

Foreign Debtper head

Total ForeignDebt

$Bln-USD

USA 58.5 99 47,568 15,570

EU 61 85 27,862 13,720

UK 76.5 360 143,009 8,989

Germany 78.8 142 57,755 4,713

France 83.5 182 74,619 4,696

Japan 225 45 19,148 2,441

Ireland 123 1,165 519,070 2,378

Netherland 64.5 344 226,503 2,344

Italy 118 108 36,841 2,223

Spain 63.4 154 47,069 2,166

Luxembourg 19.2 3,443 3,696,467 1,892

Belgium 98.6 266 113,603 1,241

Swiss 38.2 229 154,063 1,200

Australia 70.4 95 53,596 1,169

Canada 84 64 29,625 1,009

Sweden 40.8 187 91,487 853

Norway 47.7 141 131,220 643China 43.5 5 396 697

Danish 46.6 180 101,084 559

Greece 144 174 47,636 532

Portugal 83.5 217 46,795 497

Russian 138 33 3,421 480

Finland 45.5 155 68,960 370

S. Korea 20.3 37 7,567 370

Brazil 60.8 15 1,608 310

India 55.9 21 237 267

Turkey 48.1 36 3,794 270

Mexico 41.5 20 1,956 212


21/40

21

Table (14) -Owner of US Government Bond

Country 2011 2012

China 28.20% 23%

Japan 19% 21.40%

Oil Exporter 5.20% 5.10%

Central Caribbean Banks 3.80% 4.50%Other Creditors 43.80% 46.50%

Total foreign Debt -$Bln 4,666 5,048


22/40

22

Table (15)- Foreign holdings of U.S. securities, by country and type of security, for theinto the U.S., as of June 30, 2011-$BlnUSD- Source Treasury 20

Rank Country Total Equities ABC-Long term Debt Other-Long ter

1 China (Mainland)1 1,727 159 220

2 Japan 1,587 304 165

3 United Kingdom 982 442 53

4 Cayman Islands 928 433 131

5 Luxembourg 817 291 50

6 Canada 560 416 10

7 Switzerland 488 227 24

8 Middle East Oil Exporters2 446 214 13

9 Belgium 443 25 36

10 Ireland 407 105 47

11 Hong Kong 292 44 101

12 Bermuda 275 62 49

13 Netherlands 260 165 22

14 France 249 141 16

15 Germany 238 81 38

16 Taiwan 232 16 39

17 Brazil 221 2 *

18 Singapore 212 107 3

19 Norway 181 124 12

20 Australia 161 106 5

21 Russia 154 * *

22 Korea, South 133 20 42

23 Sweden 108 65 1

24 British Virgin Islands 107 61 4

25 Mexico 97 25 1

26 Country unknown 138 2 * 27 Rest of World 1,074 270 59

Total 12,520 3,906 1,141 1- Excludes Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, which are reported separately.2- Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates


23/40

23

World Foreign Exchange Reserve :It is certainly economic situation of the countries those have more much foreignexchange reserve is more stable than other countries in financial crisis .Table(16) explain the china is the most rich country with foreign exchange reservethat if adding Hong Kong to China reserve the total reserve of China will be

more than $ Bln.USD 3,531 that is more than total foreign exchange of G-7 plusUSA and Japan !!

Table (16) Countries with more than $ Bln.USD Foreign ExchangeReserve 2011

Rank Country $Bln.USD Rank Country $Bln.USD

1 China 3,240 11 Algeria 186

2 Japan 1,270 12 Italy 173

3 Saudi Arabia 592 13 Thailand 172

4 Russia 514 14 France 171

5 Taiwan 391 15 Mexico 159

6 Swiss 383 16 USA 150

7 Hong Kong 291 17 UK 128

8 India 286 18 Iran 110

9 Germany 293 19 Indonesia 106

10 Singapore 237 20 Poland 101Source: Wikipedia

How is the world weight of US, Europe and ChinaUS were the leader of world economy after second world war and Europe hasfor a long term lagged behind US and most other countries in grow . We

compare main economic indicator of US, Europe Union and China to find whatwill happen in future!


24/40

24

Table (17)- Comparison important Indicator Economic 2011

Indicator USA China European Union

Area- Sq.Km 9,372,610 9,560,900 2,573,704

Population-M 308 1,336 318

GDP-$Bln-US 14,094 5,878 14.82

Average GDP grow 2005-2009 0.01 0.11 0.8Energy consumer2009 2,339 1,955 1,226

Average inflation Rate 2005-2009 2.2 5.4 1.6

Inflation rate %-2010 1.6 3.3 1.9

Life expectancy 78.37 74 79.5

GDP per head-$USD 47,200 7,500 30,080

%Unemployment 9.3 6.5 9.4

Export ( Goods& Services $Bln-USD 14,660 7,058 17,210

Balance Account -$ Bln-USD (836) 286 57

current account Balance-$Bln-USD (706) 426 (65)

Overall Balance$ Bln-USD 52 419 19Health Spending to GDP% 16.2 4.6 10.7

No. Household M 118.5 389 131

Education Spending to GDP% 5.5 2.1 4.9

Computer per 100 population 83 25 66

By: Dayarayan;Source: Pocket World in Figures 2012 & CIA Fact Book 2012

Why the US Will Still is the Only Superpower in 2030 ?!

A point that many bring up is that empires have always risen and fallenthroughout history. This is partly true, but note that the Roman Empire lastedfor over 1000 years after its peak. Also note that the British Empire neveractually collapsed since Britain is still one of the top seven countries in theworld today, and the English language is the most widely spoken in the world.Britain was merely surpassed by its descendant, with whom it shares asymbiotic relationship. The US can expect the same if it is finally surpassed, atsome point much later than 2030 and probably not before the TechnologicalSingularity, which would make the debate moot.That writing this article is even worthwhile is a tribute to how far China hascome and how much it might achieve, but nonetheless, there is no other countrythat will be a superpower on par with the US by 2030. This is one of the safestpredictions The Futurist can make.(Source: ttp://futurist.typepad.com/my_weblog/2006/05/why_the_us_will.html)We think all economists and projection forget a very important case to theirprojection .It is merging and united two Korean that we believe before 2020 itwill be certainly and this matter will take over Korea economic to be member oftop 10 largest economy .It will be certainly.


25/40

25

Golden man Sache Bank as one of the most famous financial entity hasprojected world in future that you can see their projection in below table.

Table(18)- Nominal Gross Domestic Product 2015-2050(In 2006 US$ millions)

Rank Country 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20501 USA 16,194 17,978 20,087 22,817 26,097 29,823 33,904 38,514

2 China 8,133 12,630 18,437 25,610 34,348 45,022 57,310 70,710

3 Japan 4,861 5,224 5,570 5,814 5,886 6,042 6,300 6,677

4 Germany 3,326 3,519 3,631 3,761 4,048 4,388 4,714 5,024

5 UK 2,835 3,101 3,333 3,595 3,937 4,344 4,744 5,133

6 France 2,577 2,815 3,055 3,306 3,567 3,892 4,227 4,592

7 Italy 2,072 2,224 2,326 2,391 2,444 2,559 2,737 2,950

8 Canada 1,950 2,190 2,376 2,589 2,700 2,910 3,150 3,375

9 Russia 1,900 2,554 3,341 4,265 5,265 6,320 7,420 8,580

10 India 1,900 2,848 4,316 6,885 11,514 16,510 25,278 37,668

11 Brazil 1,720 2,194 2,831 3,720 4,963 6,631 8,740 11,36612 Mexico 1,327 1,742 2,303 3,068 4,102 5,471 7,204 9,340

13 S. Korea 1,305 1,508 1,861 2,241 2,644 3,089 3,562 4,083

14 Turkey 1,150 1,350 1,665 2,150 2,550 3,075 3,650 4,200

15 Indonesia 562 752 1,033 1,479 2,192 3,286 4,846 7,010

16 Iran 415 544 716 953 1,273 1,673 2,133 2,663

17 Nigeria 218 306 445 680 1,083 1,765 2,870 4,640

18 Philippines 215 289 400 582 882 1,353 2,040 3,010

19 Pakistan 206 268 359 497 709 1,026 1,472 2,085

20 Egypt 171 229 318 467 718 1,124 1,728 2,602

21 Vietnam 157 273 458 745 1,169 1,750 2,500 3,375

22 Bangladesh 110 150 210 304 451 676 1,001 1,466Source: Above table estimated have been made in the year 2006 by the Goldman Sachs Bank.


26/40

26

Gross Demotic Product By Nominal scale or by PPP ?As our previous explanation that GDP by PPP is not a reasonable index tocompare world economy so we arrange table (19) to find and compare GDP bynominal ( Real power) and PPP ( Parity Power).According to this table the onlycountry that is real competitor with US is China and India, Brazil and Russian

cant be real player in world economic at present !

Table (19)- Comparison GDP based on Official and PPPCountry 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2017

GDP Nominal Nominal Nominal Nominal Nominal Nominal Nominal Nominal

GDP PPP PPP PPP PPP PPP PPP PPP PPP

5,800 7,414 9,951 12,623 14,526 15,609 17,783 19,704USA

5,800 7,414 9,951 12,623 14,526 15,609 17,783 19,704

390 728 1198 2257 5930 7991 10581 12713China

910 1832 3014 5364 10128 12387 16670 20336

323 365 476 809 1597 1779 2384 2906India

744 1073 1572 2431 4070 4825 6276 7574

3104 5334 4731 4571 5488 5981 6372 6695Japan

2370 2872 3255 3890 4380 4589 5024 5324

1547 2535 1892 2771 3286 3479 3741 3893Germany

1447 1799 2144 2492 3944 3158 3440 3655

1247 1571 1232 2138 2563 2712 2984 3198France

1031 1233 1534 1860 2135 2257 2476 2668

1018 1157 1480 2283 2263 2453 2850 3167UK

933 1143 1487 1933 2199 2308 2594 2838

76 313 259 763 1487 2022 2658 3105Russia

913 952 1121 1697 2237 2511 2950 3295

1142 1133 1107 1789 2060 2067 2158 2248Italy

976 1175 1404 1642 1800 1835 1944 2062

582 590 725 1134 1577 1805 2001 2141Canada

542 667 889 1132 1334 1443 1618 1753

465 770 644 882 2143 2450 2872 3268Brazil

786 1028 1234 1585 2187 2394 2826 3171

288 335 672 848 1035 1207 1416 1567Mexico

612 752 1065 1297 1565 1743 2028 2242

270 531 533 845 1015 1163 1430 1645Korea

336 554 775 1097 1468 1630 1918 2148

114 202 165 286 708 928 1394 1812Indonesia

277 447 501 705 1035 1208 1542 1829

521 597 582 1132 1395 1397 1501 1590Spain

551 667 900 1184 1374 1405 1514 1626

202 227 266 482 735 817 1044 1258Turkey

291 385 513 747 969 1112 1303 1477

85 91 96 203 419 496 582 668Iran

247 330 438 685 951 1006 1106 1192

7049 9188 8504 13773 16259 17070 18782 20095EU

6707 8388 10539 13078 15248 16025 17652 19065

By: Dayarayan;-Source- World Economic Outlook April 2012


27/40

27

Top Largest Nominal Economy in 2011Table (20) shows which economy were largest in 2011 by different data staticsas IMF and World Bank.

Table (20)- Top 20 Largest Nominal GDP 2011

Country IMF World Bank CIA Fact BookWorld 69,659 63,123 70,160

European Union 17,577 16,122 17,720

USA 15,094 14,586 15,060

China 7,298 5,926 6,989

Japan 5,869 5,458 5,855

Germany 3,577 3,280 3,629

France 2,776 2,560 2,808

Brazil 2,492 2,087 2,518

UK 2,417 2,261 2,481

Italy 2,198 2,060 2,246

Russia 1,850 1,480 1,791Canada 1,736 1,577 1,759

India 1,676 1,727 1,843

Spain 1,493 1,407 1,537

Australia 1,488 1,131 1,507

Mexico 1,154 1,035 1,185

Korea 1,116 1,014 1,164

Indonesia 845 706 834

Netherland 840 779 858

Turkey 778 734 763

Swiss 636 527 666Saudi 577 434 560


28/40

28

Table (21)- Top Largest Economy 1980-2015

Year 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th USA China India Japan Germany Russia Brazil

2015 (IMF Forecast)

17,784 16,670 6,276 5,024 3,440 2,950 2,826 USA China Japan India Germany Russia UK 2010

14,527 10,128 4,380 4,070 2,944 2,237 2,199

USA China Japan Germany India UK France 2005

12,609 5,364 3,873 2,549 2,476 1,952 1,869

USA Japan China Germany India France UK 2000

10,011 3,252 2,981 2,137 1,579 1,546 1,524

USA Japan China Germany France UK Italy 1995

7,376 2,835 1,812 1,810 1,216 1,175 1,156

USA Japan Germany Russia France Italy UK 1990

5,753 2,340 1,455 1,183 1,018 977 939

USA Japan W. Germany France Italy UK Brazil 1985 4,193 1,561 1,050 737 717 680 585

USA Japan W. Germany France Italy UK Brazil 1980

2,772 980 763 531 514 475 424


29/40

29

Table (22)- Largest Economy Projection by IMF 2010-2030

Source: IMF Standard chartered Research

Rank Country 2010-$1000Bln Rank Country 2020-$1000Bln Rank Coun

1 USA 14.6 1 China 24.6 1 China

2 China 5.9 2 USA 23.3 2 USA 3 Japan 3.6 3 India 9.6 3 India

4 Germany 3.3 4 Japan 6 4 Brazil

5 France 2.6 5 Brazil 5.1 5 Indone

6 UK 2.3 6 Germany 5 6 Japan

7 Italy 2.4 7 France 3.9 7 Germa

8 Brazil 2 8 Russia 3.5 8 Mexico

9 Canada 1.6 9 UK 3.4 9 France

10 Russia 1.5 10 Indonesia 3.2 10 UK


30/40

30

Which Countries spent more on Health Expenditures to GDPOne of the other indicator has forgoten to economics report is HealthExpenditures to GDP that shows which countries repect to manpower more andin spite that manpower( Human resource) is the most important resources inworld economic competitore so we will find it is a long distance between

emerging economic and developed ceonomic and health care related tocountries those capital per head is bigger than others, expend health care morethan others.

Table (23) -Health Care indicators at Top 18 Economy2011

Country %GDPPCTE (*)-$Bln-

USD

PCTE-PPP(**)

$Bln-USD

USA 16.2 7,410 7,410

France 11.7 3,934 4,798

Germany 11.4 4,129 4,629Canada 10.5 4,198 4,380

Spain 9.7 3,152 3,076

Italy 9.5 3,027 3,328

Argentina 9.5 1,387 1,424

UK 9.4 3,285 3,395

Brazil 9 943 743

Australia 8.5 3,382 2,711

South Africa 8.5 862 485

Japan 8.3 2,713 3,321

Turkey 6.7 965 571

S. Korea 8.5 862 485

Mexico 6.5 862 525

Russia 5.4 1,038 475

China 4.6 308 169

India 4.2 132 45Indonesia 24 99 55

* Per Capital total expenditures on health average exchange rate ($US)

** Per Capital total expenditures on health at Purchase Power Parity(PPP)


31/40

31

Table(24)- Top Languages by percentage OG GWPGDP Cumulative

Rank Language(in $US Billions)

% of GWP% of GWP

1 English $21,276 34.90% 34.90%

2 Japanese $4,911 8.10% 43.00%

3 Simplified Chinese $4,509 7.40% 50.40%4 German $4,393 7.20% 57.60%

5 Spanish $4,170 6.80% 64.50%

6 French $3,951 6.50% 71.00%

7 Italian $2,481 4.10% 75.00%

8 Russian $2,245 3.70% 78.70%

9 Portuguese $1,915 3.10% 81.90%

10 Arabic $1,903 3.10% 85.00%

11 Dutch $1,386 2.30% 87.30%

12 Korean $929 1.50% 88.80%

13 Turkish $730 1.20% 90.00%

14 Traditional Chinese $607 1.00% 91.00%

15 Polish $528 0.90% 91.80%

Source: www.globalization-group.com/edge/2010/03/top-languages-by-gdp

Democrassy RankingAccording to report publishing bu world audit organization the democrassyranking includes democrassy, press freedom and corruption grow up in 2011and unfortunitly some of top world economy are in the top rank of corrupt.Table(25) shows their situation ranking

Table (25) World Top economy democrassy ranking 2011

Country Democracy Press Freedom Corruption TotalUS 13 10 18 13

China 121 139 56 121

Japan 29 19 11 29

India 49 46 75 49

Germany 10 10 11 10

France 16 24 19 16

Italy 35 44 51 35

UK 13 16 13 13

Brazil 50 56 54 50

Russia 133 129 113 133

Canada 8 16 10 8

Spain 21 24 23 21

Mexico 69 99 77 69

S. Korea 33 40 31 33

Turkey 55 75 44 55

Indonesia 64 71 77 64Source: world audit organization


32/40

32

According to above research and explanation and all tables ,we propose forprojection that who will be top Largest economy and compare world economyshould comply several different indicators as GDP nominal, education level,annual innovation & patients, Military power, Area, Population, access to waterclean, natural resources that we arrange in below table.


33/40

33

Table (26)- Score for Elements & factors to be super power

Total Population Health care Education Area Military Water access

1000 200 100 100 100 150 100

We, with attention table number (26) and comply necessary factors for super power ,project thacapacity, ability, infrastructure to be economy super power are USA, China and Russia and othecountries cant not to be super power inspite that they are large economy !!Table (27) shows Top

Table (27) - Top 15 Military Power 2012

Rank Country

1 USA

2 Russia

3 China

4 India

5 UK

6 Turkey

7 S. Korae

8 France

9 Japan

10 Israel

11 Brazil

12 Iran

13 Germany

14 Taiwan

15 PakistanSource: www.globalfirepower.com


34/40

34

Knowledge Economy Index (KEI) 2012 RankingsThe World Banks Knowledge Assessment Methodology (KAM:www.worldbank.org/kam) isan online interactive tool that produces the Knowledge Economy Index (KEI)an aggregate index representing a countrys or regions overall preparedness tocompete in the Knowledge Economy (KE). The KEI is based on a simple

average of four sub-indexes, which represent the four pillars of the knowledgeeconomy: Economic Incentive and Institutional Regime (EIR)

Innovation and Technological Adoption

Education and Training

Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) Infrastructure

The EIR comprises incentives that promote the efficient use of existing and newknowledge and the flourishing of entrepreneurship. An efficient innovationsystem made up of firms, research centers, universities, think tanks, consultants,

and other organizations can tap into the growing stock of global knowledge,adapt it to local needs, and create new technological solutions. An educated andappropriately trained population is capable of creating, sharing, and usingknowledge. A modern and accessible ICT infrastructure serves to facilitate theeffective communication, dissemination, and processing of information. Thisindex shows which countries( 145 countries survey) are high teck andknowledge base and we understand it is very different between developedcountries specially European countries in compare with emerging economy(except South Korea) .

Table (28 )-Top Largest economy in knowledge economy index 2012Country Rank

Knowledge Economyindex

Canada 7 8.92

Germany 8 8.9

USA 12 8.77

UK 14 8.76

Spain 21 8.35

Japan 22 8.28

France 24 8.21

S. Korea 29 7.97

Italy 30 7.89

Russian 55 5.78

Brazil 60 5.58

Turkey 69 5.16

Mexico 72 5.07

Indonesia 108 3.11

India 110 3.06

Source: World bank


35/40

35

In the other hand according to brandirectory.com annual report 2012 ,top 16brands as all World Top 20 Brands are belongs to US, and other remind arebelong to UK( 2 brand ) ,Japan (2 Brand) ,South Korea ( one brand ) andNetherland (one Brand) and emerging economy and other all countries has notany world or global brand in first 20 ranks.

Table (29) Global Top 20 Brands Rank & Brand Value 2011-2012

$ M-USD $M-USD2012 2011 Name Country

2012 20111 8 Apple US 70605 29543

2 1 Google US 47463 44294

3 2 Microsoft US 45812 42805

4 4 IBM US 39135 36157

5 3 Wal-Mart US 38320 362203

6 18 Samsung Korea 38197 21511

7 7 GE US 33214 30504

8 16 Coca-Cola US 31082 258079 5 Vodafone UK 30044 30674

10 32 Amazon.com US 28665 17780

11 10 AT&T US 28379 28884

12 12 Verizon US 27616 27293

13 11 HSBC UK 27597 27632

14 13 NTT Group Japan 26324 26927

15 14 Toyota Japan 24461 26152

16 9 Wells Fargo US 23229 28944

17 6 Bank of America US 22910 30619

18 17 McDonald's US 22230 21842

19 30 Shell Netherland 22021 18605

20 27 Intel US 21908 19708

World Economic Trends 2011-2060According to all elements and factors be effected to economy we projected table(30) for trends to 2060.


36/40

36

Table (30) Top 15 Largest Economy $Bln.USD 2015-2060 Projection b

Rank Country 2060 2055 2050 2045 2040 2035 2030 2025 2020 2015

1 China 88,068 77,840 65,540 53,354 43,853 36,044 29,626 23,774 18,628 14,253 2 USA 59,325 55,069 48,437 40,783 35,180 30,943 26,692 22,749 19,434 16,928

3 India 45,245 40,780 34,170 27,422 22,005 16,917 13,575 10,637 8,108 5,781

4 Brazil 20,864 16,348 12,871 10,182 8,132 6,526 5,114 4,065 3,247 2,669

5 Russian 15,033 12,064 9,681 7,957 7,360 6,050 4,973 4,088 3,360 2,763

6 Germany 12,624 10,890 9,348 8,025 6,923 5,972 5,388 4,928 4,508 3,214

7 Japan 11,287 10,223 9,260 8,823 8,387 7,597 7,019 6,389 5,873 4,570

8 Mexico 11,203 8,990 7,248 5,901 4,827 3,968 3,277 2,720 2,268 1,901

9 S. Korea 10,742 8,620 6,951 5,632 4,585 3,751 3,083 2,559 2,134 1,797

10 Indonesia 9567 8,873 6,953 5,448 4,269 3,361 2,646 2,103 1,672 1,336

11 Turkey 7,512 6,028 4,861 3,920 3,176 2,586 2,116 1,740 1,430 1,176

12 France 5,800 5,127 4,554 4,065 3,646 3,287 2,978 2,711 2,480 2,303

13 UK 5,334 4,761 4,271 3,839 3,461 3,135 2,868 2,650 2,484 2,341

14 Italy 3,757 3,387 3,083 2,847 2,643 2,430 2,266 2,125 2,002 1,895

15 Canada 3,756 3,386 3,052 2,751 2,480 2,235 2,025 1,821 1,650 1,497


37/40

37

Table (31)-Top New Economic Zones projection $ Bln.US -By Dayarayan

Table (32) Comparison different forecasted world Economy in 2050Forecaster 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th

China USA India Japan Brazil Russia UK Germany France ItalyGoldmanSachs 2006 44,453 35,165 27,803 6,673 6,074 5,870 3,782 3,603 3,147 2,061

China USA India Brazil Mexico Russia UK Germany France S. KoreaGoldmanSachs 2011 70,717 38,521 37,667 11,366 9,340 8,580 5,133 5,024 4,592 4,083

China USA India Japan UK Germany Brazil Mexico France ItalyHSBC

24,617 22,270 8,165 6,429 3,576 3,714 2,960 2,810 2,750 2,194

China USA India Brazil Japan Russia Mexico Germany UK IndonesiaPWC

51,180 37,876 31,313 9,235 7,664 6,112 5,800 5,707 5,628 5,358

China India USA Indonesia Nigeria Brazil Russia Japan Philippines UKCitiGroup2011 205,321 180,049 83,805 45,910 42,437 33,199 19,697 16,394 14,738 13,846

China USA India Japan Brazil Mexico UK Germany France TurkeyCarnegie

46,265 38,646 15,384 6,216 6,020 5,709 4,997 4,537 4,528 3,536

India China USA Indonesia Brazil Nigeria Russia Mexico Japan EgyptWealthReport 85,970 80,020 39,070 13,930 11,580 9,510 7,770 6,570 6,480 6,020

China USA India Brazil Russia Germany Japan Mexico Indonesia S. KoreaDayarayan

65,540 48,437 34,170 12,871 9,681 9,348 9,260 7,248 6,953 6,951

Year BRIC NAFTA European Union G-7

2010 11,157 17,138 16,25922,650

2015 25,736 20,326 18,78232,753

2020 33,343 23,352 21,38738,431

2030 53,288 31,994 26,45549,236

2040 81,350 42,497 33,21062,720

2050 122,262 58,737 41,48492,843

2060 169,120 102,747 51,570101,884

BRIC = Brazil/Russia/India/China and NAFTA -NAFTA=USA/Canada/MexicoG-7= USA,UK,France, Germany, Italy, Canada ,Japan

We arranged special comparison table from world forecaster about world economy 2050 as table(28) to can compare correctly all top 10 largest GDP


38/40

38

Global changing ?According to our research and attention table (33) the future global changing areas below table .

Table (33) Future Global Economy Changing

Year GDP Ranking ( Base PPP) Estimated Changing in World Economic2011 China the second world economic power2011 Indonesia take over Turkey

2012 India take over Japan and become be the third world Economy

2012 Brazil take over UK

2015 Brazil will take over France

2020 S. Korea will take over France, Uk, Italy

2025 China will take over US and will be top super power

2025 Mexico will take over France, UK

2025 France Will Take Over UK

2030 Turkey will take over Canada

2030 Brazil will take over Russia2030 S. Korae will take over Indonesia

2030 Indonesia will take over Canada ,Italy

2035 Indonesia will take over France, UK

2035 Russia will take over Germany

2035 Brazil will take over Germany

2050 Germany will take over Japan


39/40

39

Conclusion and finding:1-The world GDP from $Bln.371 (1700), $Bln.5,331 (1950) ,$Bln.16,022(1973) and $ Bln.70177 (2011) will be jump to 350,000 in 20602- China economy will be eight times more than 2011in 2060 and also India economy size in2060 will grow seven times more than 2011.2- Bric Group ( Brazil, Russia, India, China) will be largest economic group from $

Bln.11,157 (2011) to $Bln.169,1203-The largest GDP $Bln.15,040 ( USA) in 2011 will jump to $ Bln. 88,066 (China) in 20604- The largest GDP per capital was $ USD 9,757 (USA) in 1954 and will jump to $ 125,000(USA) with 450,000000 population in 2060.5-Larest world output will be related to emerging economy and new economy graphic BRIC,BRICSAM (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Mexico), SICJ( S. Korea,Indonesia, China, Japan)6- GDP BRIC group will grow from $ Bln.11,157 (2010) to $ Bln.33,347 (2020),$Bln.53,2888 (2030), $Bln.122,262 (2050) and $ Bln.169,210 (2060) that will be 2.4 timesmore than world GDP in 2011.7-GDP SICJ Group (S. Korea, Indonesia, China, Japan ) will increase to $ Bln.26,603(2020),$Bln. 42,374 (2030),$Bln. 88,704(2050) and $ Bln. 119,664 (2060) that will be 70.7% total

GDP for BRIC in 2060.8-United Korea will be one of the main economy players after 2020 and it will be ninth toprank in 2060.9-Russia economy has huge potentially but should be solve their political problem to convertfrom oligarchy economy to free economy with transparency to be top fifth rank in 2060.10- Undeveloped countries same Nigeria, Vietnam, Philipina, Iran and Egypt will be changedand moved to second 10 largest world economy.11- Small European countries will be loses their size and rank fret 2017.12- Demographic population and old age will be serious problem for European Countries andalso Japan that it effect to their world rank after 2017.13- We predict between 2025 to 2030 there will be a major overhaul of economic output andworld GDP that some large top economy, small European Countries and poor countries willbe the big losers.14- Germany will be top European economy (G7) and also will takeover Japan in 2050 andeven sooner because Japan debt is top debt in the world15- Despite that emerging economy will jump more than developed economy but knoweconomy index in emerging economy are more poor in compare with G7 and G20 and 70%of top 20 global brand with more than brand value as # Bln.USD 460 are belong to USA.


40/40

Sources:1-www.econjobrumors.com/topic/the-power-of-soviet-totalitarianism2-www.knoema.com

3-www.rediff.com4- Report World 2050 by HSBC5- ReportWorld 2030-2050 by Glodman Sach6- Wikipedia7-Article Fall free market and rise of Controled market By: Gholamhossein Davani Published in lemound Diplomatic farsi version and World Economic newspaper in Persian20118- Report World in 2050 By PriceWaterHouse publication9- Global terend 2030 Alternative Worlds published by Sweden Embasy10- Mapping in Global Future - Report of the National Intelligence Councils 2020 Project11- 2011 Annual report of World Health Organization12-Report China 2030 By World Bank13- CIA FACTBOOK Haard copy 201214- Pocket World in Figuers 2011 &201215- Wealth Report 201216- Goldman Sachs study of BRIC and N11 nations, November 23, 2007.

Documents

World in 2060 Final Version-3