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World Oil Outlook 2045
Launch of 2020 edition
Presented by OPEC SecretariatVienna, 8 October 2020
World Oil Outlook 2045
Launch presentation sponsored by OMV and WU Executive Academy
OPEC WOO - essential and detailed analysis of the prospects for the global oil industry
The WOO OPEC’s flagship annual publication, combining the
expertise of the OPEC Secretariat and professionals in OPEC
Member Countries.
The WOO is now also available as an APP for Android and iOS.
© 2020 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 4
• Global energy demand projected to increase by around 25% between 2019 and 2040
• Demand increases in non-OECD regions and drops in OECD
All energy sources needed to facilitate economic recover, meet future demand and eradicate energy poverty
Primary energy demand by fuel Primary energy demand by region
© 2020 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 5
Shifting time horizon to 2045 amplifies the role of other renewables in future energy demand mix
Growth in primary energy demand by fuel, 2019-2045
• Other renewables projected
to experience the largest
growth (+25.5 mboe/d)
• Gas also expected to see a
large demand increase (+24
mboe/d)
• Coal demand set to decline
• Oil will retain the highest
share in the energy mix
© 2020 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 6
• Oil demand projected to increase by
– 4.0 mb/d between 2019 and 2025
– almost 10 mb/d between 2019
and 2045
• Demand growth in non-OECD
(+22.5 mb/d) countries will more
than offset declines in OECD (-13.1
mb/d)
• Healthy demand growth in the first
part of the forecast period will be
followed by plateauing oil demand
in the second part
Global oil demand, 2019-2045
Long-term oil demand is projected to reach 109 mb/d by 2045
© 2020 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 7
Transport and petrochemicals remain the key to future demand
99.7
109.1
2.6
3.7
2.8
0.3 0.5
1.3
91
94
97
100
103
106
109
112
Demand in 2019
Growth intransportation
Growth in industry
Growth in other sectors
Demandin 2045
mb/d
Others*
Aviation
Road
Other industry
Petrochemicals Resid/ Comm/Agr-1.1Electricity generation
Resid/ Comm/Agr
Oil demand growth by sector between 2019 and 2045• Various transport modes will continue
providing basis for oil demand growth
– Aviation sector +2.8 mb/d
– Road transport +2.6 mb/d
– Marine bunkers +0.8 mb/d
• Petrochemicals will be the largest
source of incremental demand
(+3.7 mb/d)
• Some demand increase also in ‘other
industry’ and res./comm./agriculture
• Electricity generation: demand
decline of more than 1 mb/d
© 2020 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 8
The share of EVs is projected to reach more than 16% in 2045
Composition of the global vehicle fleet, 2019–2045• 2.6 billion vehicles on the road by
2045
• Around 430 million will be EVs
• The share of EVs projected to
reach around 5% in 2030, 13% in
2040 and more than 16% in 2045
• NGVs will account for around 120
million vehicles in 2045
• Oil demand in the road transport
sector at a relatively stable level
around 47 mb/d after 2030
© 2020 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 9
• After declining sharply in 2020, in the medium-term, non-OPEC supply is expected to mostly recover from the
pandemic-related shut-ins seen this year
• However, only a handful of non-OPEC producers will see growth beyond the late 2020s, meaning by 2045, supply
will return to levels seen in 2019
• Thus over the long-term, OPEC liquids will need to make up the balance, growing from 34 mb/d in 2019 to 44
mb/d by 2045
Long-term Non-OPEC liquids supply OPEC total liquids supply
Long-term, ample scope for OPEC total liquids supply
© 2020 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 10
• Distillation additions in the LT following the demand growth in developing regions
• Towards the end of the projection period average annual addition rate at around 0.35 mb/d
• Almost 85% of new additions projected in Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Africa
Long-term total distillation capacity additions estimated at 15.6 mb/d
Distillation capacity additions and oil demand growth,
2020-2045
Distillation capacity additions,
2020–2045
© 2020 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 11
• Recent upstream investment cuts are a concern
• Upstream spending needs to average $380 billion per year
Cumulative long-term oil-related investment requirements will be $12.6 trillion
Annual upstream investment requirements Cumulative oil-related investment requirements
2020–2045
© 2020 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 12
Energy consumption per capita vs. GDP ($1,000 PPP)
per capita, 2019-2045• Energy consumption per capita
remains an area of inequality
between OECD and non-OECD
countries
• Global energy poverty is declining
but the gap is still wide
• Non-OECD is expected to see
rapid gains in energy consumption
per capita, but this will remain
below OECD levels
Energy poverty will continue to decline, but remains an issue
Available as:
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Thank you.
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