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WORLDWIDE NGV UPDATE :GROWTH & TRENDS
Working Party on GasUnited Nations
Palais Nations, Geneva20 January 2010
Presented by: Jeffrey Seisler
on behalf of:
Overview of the Presentation• General ‘state of the NGV union’ worldwide- NGV growth- Fuelling stations- Vehicle availability• Road map of developments and potentials,
including L-NGVs (& L-CNG) and biomethane in vehicles
• NGV challenges faced by the gas industry worldwide
World NGV GrowthVehicle Numbers & % Growth Rate
9,439,549
7,546,176
5,647,3144,687,203
3,850,6573,254,841
2,309,974
10,890,717
15
25
3430
2218
41
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
NGV Growth (%)Updated Dec 2009: Data from Gas Vehicles Report
Data source: The GVR, December 2009
World CNG Fuelling Station Growth
5,4826,666
7,8429,077
10,647
12,21914,169
16,27822
18 1617 15 16
15
0
5
10
15
20
25
02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
% A
nnua
l Gro
wth
Rat
e
Fuel
ling
stat
ions
YearsFS FS % Growth
Projections of NGV GrowthIGU Triennium Report 2006-2009
Natural Gas for VehiclesPresented 5-9 October 2009
World Gas Conference, Buenos Aires
• Several scenarios based upon 10% target of total vehicle fleet
• Different rates of oil price increases• 2-3% vehicle fleet growth
Projected World NGV Growth to 2030[business as usual scenario]
Total NGV car park: Business As Usual scenario
512
29
53
76
104
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mill
ion
equi
vale
nt N
GV
s
Russian Federation & C.I.S.
Latin America and the Caribbean
North America
Middle East
Europe
Asia-Pacific
Africa
Total:
Natural Gas for Vehicles (NGV), International Gas Union 2009, Working Cmte. 5 Sub Cmte. 3 Final Report
Million Equivalent NGVs
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
NGV TECHNOLOGY IS AVAILABLE
• Technology is commercial in many parts of the world• More OEM Products available than any other
alternative fuel vehicles– ~65 Manufacturers worldwide producing 295+
vehicle models & engines (outside China)– ~53 Chinese OEMs Making 72 LDV models & 29
HDV models• Some countries are shifting away from retrofits in
favor of OEM NGVs
Updated January 2010
VW Passat TSI EcoFuel(Turbo Milestone)
Turbo charging is widely recognized ‚tipping point‘ for wide acceptance of light duty diesel vehicles....and a similar impact on NGVs is expected
ource: Volkswagen AG
The Latest NGV of 2009
OEM Leaders Speak Favorably about NGVs
• “Methane gas is by far the most accessible fuel as an alternative to diesel.” Lars Mårtensson, Environmental Director of Volvo Trucks.
• “Natural gas is the only real, immediate alternative to petrol.” Sergio Marchionne, CEO of Fiat Group & Chrysler Group.
Some Customers Agree…and help drive the OEMs
• AT&T Commits to 8,000 Natural Gas Vehicles – $350 Million, March 10, 2009 | USA, Dallas
• Largest ever US NGV Commitment• AT&T ’sends signal’ to auto makers
$565 Million over 10 Years Reduces Carbon Emissions by 211,000 Metric Tons
• 1,000 new or saved jobs for next five years
L-NGV Markets Will Grow with LNG Global Trading
LNG VEHICLES
Cummins Westport ISL-G (LNG) Engine
LNG Garbage Trucks (Barcelona)
Mercedes LNG Econic (NL)
LNG gas turbine: RussiaSource: Russian Railways, Moscow, Russia
LNG-Fuelled Vehicles
NorwayDistribution & Ferries
Fueling the ferry Tupolev LNG Plane
LNG for Port Applications
LNG FUELLING STATIONS: USA
LNG & CNG Fuelling station Lleida, Spain(One of 3 in Spain)
CNG Dispenser
LNG Dispenser
M6
M56
CHive LNG REFUELLING NETWORK UK
M48M4
M5
M25
M40 9
11
31
2620
1
42
38 A1
Lesmahagow
Wolverhampton
Bristol
Carlisle
Castleford
Flamstead Shepshed
LondonderryTebay
A1M
23
M1
M62 Lymm
Ilkeston
10M74
Shepshed
LNG FUELLING STATIONSCHINA
1ST Chinese LNG station: Designed for 100 buses per day
Fueling Station Option…with L-CNG
(Liquefied-to-compressed natural gas)• Flexibility of supply
(liquid & gaseous at same facility)
• Pump required; no compressor (gasification to CNG at 200 bar)
• Off-pipeline station development SHAANXI L-CNG Demonstration Project
IANGV Advocates International Fuelling Station Signage
• Advocated as UN ‘Consolidated Resolution’ in March 2010
• Ultimately to be part of Int’l Treaty on Road Signage as a permanent, approved road sign (with CNG & LPG signage)
Biomethane: NGVs are Part of a Renewable
Energy Strategy
(Energy Relevance....i.e. “methane sex appeal”)
RENEWABLE BIOMETHANEMultifaceted Solution to Multifaceted Problems
• Feedstock from various waste products– Agricultural (animal, plant & wood: not food supply!)– Sewage from water purification– Urban waste
• Biogas feedstock conversion efficiencies 40-70%• Injected into natural gas grid or supplied locally• Can reduce <100% CO2 emissions compared to
gasoline car on a well-to-wheel basis• Potential to replace 20% of petroleum in European
transport sector by 2030• Production infrastructure required!!
Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction of Biomethane Fuel Chains
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Biogas(manure)
Biogas(energycrops)
SNG(wastewood)
CNG gasoline diesel
GH
G e
mis
sion
s (W
TT a
nd c
arbo
n co
nten
t of f
uel)
in [g
CO
2 eq
v./M
J fu
el]
-187% -55% -65% -19%
Source: Concawe/EUCAR 2003, Wuppertal Institute et al. 2006
-GHG balance is dominatedby biomass chain:
-Fermentation of liquid manureavoids CH4 emissions of alternative manure disposal and, thus, receives high GHG bonus
negative GHG emissions (-187%)!
-Cultivation of energy cropsinduces energy use and GHGemissions (incl. N2O)
net emission reduction (-55%)compared to fossil options
-Use of waste wood is favourablefor SNG balance
RENEWABLE BIOGAS-to-BIOMETHANE The Environmentally ‘Closed Loop’
Liquefied-Bio-Gas (LBG) in Sweden
LCO2 & LBG Fuelling Stations
(Bio)Landfill Gas-LNG Production (USA)
Gas composition/quality is an ‘open’ issue, especially for landfill gas entering the pipeline network.
CHALLENGE OF BIOGAS INFRASTRUCTURE REQUIREMENTS• Investment in bio-digesters required
…starting NOW• Permits, local citizen input, and
construction takes time (but ‘learning curve’ experiences can speed development)
• Steady supply of feedstock is essential• Biomethane applications provide
energy companies with avenues to meet renewable obligations & earn carbon credits
NGV TRENDS & CONCLUSIONS
….INTO THE FUTURE
SUMMARY: WORLD WIDE TRENDS• CNG will continue to grow; maybe not at the
same rate as the past few years, but in many countries, very steadily
• LNG popularity will help drive the L-NGV market
- China; Australia; Thailand; US; Spain; Russia; Netherlands, Korea, etc.
• Biogas-to-biomethane will advance, but will be dependent on public commitment to new waste management infrastructure (enhanced by but not necessarily due to gas industry support)
Powertrain Landscapes 2007 & 2020
NGVs = 11-14% in 2020
ConclusionsThe future for NGVs is positive!
• Long-term price advantage compared to oil and bio-liquids will be the main driver.
• Countries must focus on success factors.• Government policies must be long-term &
balanced among the alternative fuels.• Natural gas industry would benefit from a
clearer, long term strategic vision of their product’s flexibility, particularly in the transport sector:
- CNG - Cars - LNG - Trucks & Buses- L-CNG - Marine applications - Biogas-Biomethane - Railway applications
• Continued focus on environmental and climate benefits.
• Harmonized standards must be advocated continually.
• Maintain vigilance and concern for safety (especially cylinders and fuelling).
• Better communications about NGV: Yes, vehicles can run on clean burning natural gas!!
ConclusionsThe future for NGVs is positive!
12th Annual IANGV Conferencewww.ngv2010roma.com
International Association for Natural Gas Vehicles – IANGVwww.iangv.orgBrett Jarman
Executive [email protected]
Martin SiefertVice President – Govt and International Affairs
WORLDWIDE NGV UPDATE :GROWTH & TRENDS
Working Party on GasUnited Nations
Palais Nations, Geneva20 January 2010
Presented by: Jeffrey Seisler
on behalf of:
