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7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Karapinar
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Nktkzimkt/ \stncy
P|sly pi|c lc|kiop
\fc tc`|kmesokt Nktkzimkt p|sly pi|c ip og`k|cl im |fc Etck| Ngmyk Dkpim ga pgs|f `cm|tko Kmk|goik/;4: nh ckp| ga Ngmyk `i|y- I| im`oslcp k hioi|kty rgmc &
7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Karapinar
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Nktkzimkt/ \stncy
Dkpcoimc P`cmktig
ZCPCTK dkpcoimc tsm
\fc dkpcoimc tsm pfgup qcty ogu ctgpigm tk|cp k`tgpp |fc
cm|itc p|sly pi|c ktck &dcogu :-3 |gm'fk)- \fc dighkpp
ztgls`|igm qkticp ui|f okml spc/ ufctc ktkdoc okml fkp
ogu qkoscp- \fc 4:: h ko|i|slc tkmec ui|fim |fc p|sly pi|c
lgcp pfgu kp okmlagthp im |fc pgs|fucp| kml mgt|f ga
|fc ktck/ ds| |fip fkp mg mg|i`ckdoc ast|fct imaoscm`c gm
ctgpigm kml dighkpp ztgls`|igm-
Pgio ctgpigm
Dighkpp ztgls`|igm
Okmlagthp
Pgio ctgpigm
Dighkpp ztgls`|igm
7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Karapinar
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Nktkzimkt/ \stncy
\c`fmgogey P`cmktig2
Himihsh |iookec
\g|ko gzctk|igm `gp|p smlct liaactcm| ztk`|i`cp2( |tkli|igmko zogsefime 501 \TY'fk &496)
( Himihsh |iookec 501 \TY'fk &496)
\fc kdgqc gzctk|igm `gp|p im`oslc tcm|ime gac{sizhcm| |g ihzochcm| ck`f ztk`|i`c
K fktqcp| imlcv agt etkimp ga
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Digzfypi`ko ihzk`|2 fkmec im dighkpp
C`gmghi` qikdioi|y
Mc| ztgai| smlct |tkli|igmko zogsefime Mc| ztgai| smlct himihsh |iookec
Himihsh |iookec fkp hivcl caac`|p gm dighkpp ztgls`|igm2 im kdgs| k |fitl ga |fc kzzoi`kdoc ktck i| ocklp |g yicol
im`tckpcp ga
7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Karapinar
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Nktkzimkt/ \stncy
\c`fmgogey P`cmktig2
P|sddoc akooguime
\g|ko gzctk|igm `gp|p smlct liaactcm| ztk`|i`cp2( |tkli|igmko zogsefime 501 \O'fk &496)
( p|sddoc akooguime 501 \O'fk &496)
\fc kdgqc gzctk|igm `gp|p im`oslc tcm|ime gac{sizhcm| |g ihzochcm| ck`f ztk`|i`c
K fktqcp| imlcv agt etkimp ga
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Digzfypi`ko ihzk`|2 fkmec im dighkpp
C`gmghi` qikdioi|
Mc| ztgai| smlct |tkli|igmko zogsefime Mc| ztgai| smlct p|sddoc akooguime
P|sddoc akooguime fkp km impiemiai`km| caac`| gm dighkpp ztgls`|igm- Kp gzctk|igmko `gp|p ktc mg| liaactcm| atgh
|tkli|igmko zogsefime/ |fc c`gmghi` qikdioi|y ga `ctcko akthime ip mg| ko|ctcl &i-c- mc| ztgai|p tchkim mcek|iqc)-
Dighkpp `fkmec Zct`cm|kec dighkpp `fkmec
7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Karapinar
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Nktkzimkt/ \stncy
\c`fmgogey P`cmktig2
Zogsefcl p|sddoc akooguime
\g|ko gzctk|igm `gp|p smlct liaactcm| ztk`|i`cp2( |tkli|igmko zogsefime 501 \O'fk &496)
( zogsefcl p|sddoc akooguime 501 \O'fk &496)
\fc kdgqc gzctk|igm `gp|p im`oslc tcm|ime gac{sizhcm| |g ihzochcm| ck`f ztk`|i`c
K fktqcp| imlcv agt etkimp ga
7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Karapinar
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Digzfypi`ko ihzk`|2 fkmec im dighkpp
\fctc ip mg liaactcm`c im dighkpp ztgls`|igm dc|uccm smlct dkpcoimc p`cmktig kml smlct zogsefcl p|sddoc
akooguime-
C`gmghi` qikdioi|y
Mc| ztgai| smlct |tkli|igmko zogsefime Mc| ztgai| smlct zogsefcl p|sddoc akooguime
Zogsefcl p|sddoc akooguime fkp mg caac`| gm dighkpp ztgls`|igm- Kp gzctk|igmko `gp|p ktc mg| liaactcm| atgh
|tkli|igmko zogsefime/ |fc c`gmghi` qikdioi|y ga `ctcko akthime ip mg| ko|ctcl &i-c- mc| ztgai|p tchkim mcek|iqc)-
7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Karapinar
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Nktkzimkt/ \stncy
Eogdko P`cmktig2
Aggl ztgls`|igm
\fc aggl ztgls`|igm p`cmktig pcoc`|p |fc |c`fmgogey
ui|f |fc fiefcp| keti`so|stko ztgls`|iqi|y &dighkpp)
agt ck`f `coo ufctc k fiefct ztgls`|iqi|y |fkm im |fc
dkpcoimc p`cmktig ip k`ficqcl- \fc ihzochcm|k|igm
`gp|p agt |fc |g|ko p|sly ktck ktc `ko`sok|cl kml `gp|(
ztgls`|iqi|y tcok|igmp kppcppcl- \g ak`ioi|k|c
`ghzktipgm dc|uccm liaactcm| p|sly pi|cp/ koo `gp|p
ktc cvztcppcl im Cstg-
. 0
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Nktkzimkt/ \stncy
Eogdko P`cmktig2
Himihirime okml lcetklk|igm
\fc himihirime okml lcetklk|igm p`cmktig pcoc`|p |fc
|c`fmgogey ui|f |fc fiefcp| hi|iek|ime caac`| gm okml
lcetklk|igm gt mgmc ia |fc dkpcoimc pi|sk|igm
lchgmp|tk|cp |fc ogucp| tk|c ga okml lcetklk|igm-
\fc ihzochcm|k|igm `gp|p agt |fc |g|ko p|sly ktck ktc
`ko`sok|cl kml `gp|(ztgls`|iqi|y tcok|igmp kppcppcl- \g
ak`ioi|k|c `ghzktipgm dc|uccm liaactcm| p|sly pi|cp/ koo
`gp|p ktc cvztcppcl im Cstg-
( :-:0 |gm pgio'fk
:'|gm pgio
P`gzc agt tcls`cl ctgpigm
Tcls`|igm ga ctgpigm &mcek|iqc qkoscp) Zct`cm|kec ga ctgpigm tcls`|igm &mcek|iqc qkoscp)
Digzfypi`ko ihzk`|2 ctgpigm tcls`|igm
Tcls`|igm ga ctgpigm im ;::# ga kzzoi`kdoc ktck Kqctkec kdpgos|c ctgpigm tcls`|igm2 :-:0
|gmmcp'fk'yt
Kqctkec zct`cm| ctgpigm tcls`|igm2 9
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Nktkzimkt/ \stncy
@gm`oslime tchktnp
Dkpcoimc pihsok|igmp pfgu |fk| |fc p|sly pi|c cvzcticm`cp ogu ctgpigm tk|cp/ ds| |fip hief| dc hipocklimekp |fc ctgpigm ocqco p`koc hky dc hgtc kzztgztik|c agt uk|ct |fkm agt uiml ctgpigm/ ufi`f `gmp|i|s|cp |fclghimkm| lcetklk|igm ztg`cpp im Nktkzimkt- K``gtlime |g lcetklk|igm hkzzime dy cvzct|p/ ktkdoc okml
cvzcticm`cp oief| |g hglctk|c lcetccp ga okml lcetklk|igm dy ogpp ga |gzpgio |ftgsef uiml ctgpigm-
\fc |c`fmgogeicp pihsok|cl ktc |fc |c`fmgogeicp agt ufi`f aicol cvzctihcm|p uctc `gmls`|cl- \fc aicolcvzctihcm|p `gm`cm|tk|cl gm digzfypi`ko imli`k|gtp im k p|tiz `tgzzime pc| sz ufi`f ip |fgsef| |g hi|iek|c
uiml ctgpigm- Himihsh |iookec tk|fct |fkm mg(|ioo ukp ihzochcm|cl/ |gec|fct ui|f p|sddoc akthime kml
zogsefcl p|sddoc akthime- Fcm`c/ cvzctihcm|p `gm`cm|tk|cl gm qktikm|p ga mg(|ioo |c`fmgogey ufi`f ukp
ztigti|ipcl dy og`ko p|kncfgolctp |g klltcpp uiml ctgpigm ztgdochp- \fc |c`fmgogey p`cmktigp pfgu
tcls`|igmp im pgio ctgpigm kml oihi|cl caac`| gm dighkpp ztgls`|igm/ ko|fgsef pgio ctgpigm tcls`|igmp uctc
phkoo im kdpgos|c |cthp tcok|iqc |g |fc p`koc ga ctgpigm ocqcop spcl im ztcpcm|ime hkzp- Caac`|p gm dighkpp
uctc zgpi|iqc &