Wrap up

Hon. Robert O. WorkUndersecretary of the Navy

Current Strategy Forum13 June 2012

Department of the Navy

Five broad themes

• The 21st century security environment will be fundamentally different

• We need a more sustainable US grand strategy

• Managing our relationship with China will be among the most important tasks of the next two decades

• We are on the leading edge of a robotics revolution

• Our strategic concept and organizational construct are both well aligned with US 21st century national security challenges and requirements

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The 21st Century security environment will be fundamentally different

• Many more actors

• The rise of the different₋ “Renaissance nationalism”

• The rising powers have little experience in dealing with or solving international problems

₋ Climate change and water₋ Women in war

• Allies are distracted

• US may be less willing to shoulder the entire load

“Global stuff not happening the way it used to” (“G-0”)“Creative destruction of the global geo-strategic/political

environment”

Economic competition will be a key element of the strategic environment

• “Today, our foreign and economic relations remain indivisible. Only now, our great challenge is not deterring any single military foe, but advancing our global leadership at a time when power is more often measured and exercised in economic terms….[E]verywhere I travel, I see countries gaining influence less because of the size of their armies than because of the growth of their economies…A strong economy has been a quiet pillar of American power in the world. It gives us the leverage we need to exert influence and advance our interests. It gives other countries confidence in our leadership and a greater stake in partnering with us.”

• “We seek the security of our Nation, allies, and partners. We seek the prosperity that flows from an open an free international economic system. And we seek a just and sustainable international order…”

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We need a more sustainable US Grand Strategy

• Our post-Cold War Grand Strategy can perhaps be best described as Global Meliorism− “Global Meliorism is simply the socio-economic and

politico-cultural expression of an American mission to make the world a better place. It is based on the assumption that the United States can, should, and must reach out to help other nations share in the American dream.” [Walter A. MacDougall]

− “…if we have to use force, it is because we are America; we are the indispensable nation. We stand tall and we see further than other countries into the future, and we see the danger here to all of us.” [Madeline Albright]

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This grand strategy has been expensive, in a variety of ways

187.9

622.9

533.6551.8

369.7

701.6688.0

633.4

530.9

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 11 12 14 16 17

Projections (red bars) assume OMB guidance plus OCO placeholder of $70B in FY14, trending to $20B in FY17

Korea

VietnamReagan Buildup

Iraq/Afghan

Fiscal Year

(Dollars in Billions)

371.5

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Post-VietnamFY68 - 76: -30%

Post- Cold WarFY86 - 98: -33%

Total Defense BA in Constant FY 2011 Dollars

Post-KoreaFY52 - 56: -40%

Post- OIF/OEFFY10 - 17: -24%

“Forever War”271 months,

130 months at war

(and still counting)

W:P ratio falls to 1:1.08

Cold War:506 months,

138 months at war

1 month at war for every 2.67

months at peace

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Important to note that no one is advocating the US abandon its central global role

• This is not about “managing America’s decline”

• It is about adjusting to challenging new security environment: “seeking solvency with power to spare”

• “As Commander in Chief, I am determined that we meet the challenges of this moment responsibly and that we emerge even stronger in a manner that preserves American global leadership [and] maintains our military superiority.“

• …a changing world that demands our leadership, the United States of America will remain the greatest force for freedom and security that the world has ever known.”

• Shift from “G-0” to what?

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Military power still vitally important …but it may be employed differently

“The United States remains the only nation able to project and sustain large-scale military operations over extended distances. We maintain superior capabilities to deter and defeat adaptive enemies and to ensure the credibility of security partnerships that are fundamental to regional and global security. In this way, our military continues to underpin our national security and global leadership, and when we use it appropriately, our security and leadership is reinforced. But when we overuse our military might, or fail to invest in or deploy complementary tools, or act without partners, then our military is overstretched, Americans bear a greater burden, and our leadership around the world is too narrowly identified with military force.”

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Some argue the burden of Global Meliorism is manageable

• After all, $700+ billion is slightly less than 5% of the nation’s GDP, below that of the Cold War average of 6.3%

• This argument is not very compelling−A first sin of strategy: not understanding that all resources are scarce, and

must be prioritized−During the debate for the FY1954 budget:

o Deficits were projected to reach $56 billion (!!) by 1957o Great pressure to reduce war taxes (!!)o Permanent statutory programs—debt service, veteran’s benefits, price supports,

grants in aids to states, and social security—consumed 18% (!!) of federal expenditures

o Non-defense discretionary programs consumed another 12% of the budgeto Even though defense spending amounted to 70% of federal spending, representing

over 10% of GDP, still required hard prioritization, which led to the “New Look”

The Big Picture: We find ourselves at a strategic inflection point

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007-2008Debt held by the public

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Polls suggest public support for high defense budgets is waning

Managing our relationship with China will be among the most important tasks of the next two decades

• “Chinese rise is the biggest geopolitical shift in history”₋ China is intent on becoming a Great Power₋ China on its way to surpass the US as the world’s number

one economic power

• Will require adroit statecraft₋ “Rebalancing to the Pacific”₋ Economic statecraft

• “Battle of persuasion”

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We are on the verge of a new robotics revolution

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Strategic concept and organizational structure well aligned

• As part of a National Fleet, the Navy-Marine Corps Team is built and ready for war, and operated forward to help preserve the peace, protect American, allied, and global interests, and assure freedom of access in peace and war

₋ Expeditionary operations₋ Distributed global operations₋ Disaggregated operations₋ Guarantor of access in peace₋ Guarantor of access in war

• Total Force Battle Network

• Platforms with sea and air interfaces capable of employing second (and third)-stage systems

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Questions

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Bravo Zulu!

Good luck!

Fair Winds and Following Seas

For the graduating students:

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Thank you!

For those who supported the Current Strategy Forum: