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The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Long Term Plan

including the development of Regional Environmental Prediction Systems

Gilbert Brunetand

Dave Parsons

CAS-XV Technical ConferenceIncheon, Republic of Korea, 16-17 November 2009,

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RPLong-term objectives of the WWRP

To improve public safety and economic productivity by accelerating research on the prediction of high-impact weather;

To demonstrate improvements in the prediction of weather, with emphasis on high-impact events through the exploitation of advances in scientific understanding, observational network design, data assimilation and modelling techniques and information systems;

To improve understanding of atmospheric processes of importance to weather forecasting through the organization of focused research programmes (e.g., WWRP Strategic Plan);

To encourage the utilization of relevant advances in weather prediction systems to the benefit of all WMO Programmes and all Members; and

To maintain a strong focus on training opportunities for young scientists, so that as many countries as possible will be able to contribute to and benefit from the research advances.

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WWRP Long Term Challenges: Nowcasting Research (NR)

Use the latest observational technologies to detect and forecast weather over the 0-6 hour time frame for rapidly evolving small scale phenomena that realize high-impact over short periods.

Develop automated approaches for the rapid detection and effective dissemination of information; and

Develop linkages and on-going compatibility with longer time scale forecasts in the context of a unified approach to forecasting.

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The short term forecasting problemThe short term forecasting problem

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Forecast Period (hrs)

1 2 3 4 5 6

Extrapolation

NowcastModel --- radar data

Merged FCST

NWP

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Beijing ‘08 Region has large vulnerability to convective weather

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Outcomes of WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) and Research

Development Project (RDP) for Beijing 08

• Multi-year effort that significantly improved the nowcasting capabilities of the international partners for prediction of warm season rainfall

• Transfer of nowcasting and mesoscale ensemble prediction technology to China and Shanghai MHEWS

• Societal and Economic Research and Applications (SERA) component with multiple users

• Research and operational experience in high resolution modeling and mesoscale ensembles in convective rainfall

• More rainfall than normal and six events delayed. Close call on opening ceremony

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Accumulated Precipitation

( 04pm Aug.8—06am Aug. 9)

National Stadium

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WWRP Long Term Challenges: Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research (MWFR)

Promote weather forecasting research on the meso-scale, and strengthen international cooperation, knowledge transfer and capacity building in this field;

Incorporate high resolution modelling within nowcasting systems;

Improve sub-grid scale physics parameterization in collaboration with THORPEX and Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE); and

Integrate Earth-system modelling with mesoscale NWP models for atmospheric chemistry, oceanic and surface applications and their evaluation in weather forecast mode with lead time of few hours to 2-day.

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Transport and Chemical Conversion in Convective Systems (COPS-TRACKSCOPS-TRACKS)Period: 16.07. – 02.08.2007

EUMETSAT EUMETSAT special satellite operation modes and dataPeriod: 01.06. – 31.08.2007(Aoshima et al. MetZet 2008)

Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region (D-PHASED-PHASE), WWRP Forecast and Demonstration Project (FDP)Period: 01.06. – 30.11.2007(Rotach et al. BAMS 2009)

European THORPEX Regional Campaign 2007 (ETReC 2007ETReC 2007)Period: 01.07. – 01.08.2007

European Coordinated Experiments 2007

General Observations Period (GOPGOP) Period: full year of 2007(Crewell et al. MetZet 2009)

Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPSCOPS)), WWRP) Research and Development Project (RDP)Period: 01.06. – 31.08.2007Wulfmeyer et al. BAMS 2008

Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Mobile Facility (AMFAMF)Period: 01.04. – 31.12.2007

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RPD-PHASE End-to-End Forecast System

WWRP Working Group on Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research

• 7 probabilistic and 23 high-resolution deterministic atmo-spheric models

• 7 coupled hydrological models (deterministic and probabilistic)

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RP Windward/lee effect

D-PHASE/COPS Model Evaluation

WWRP Working Group on Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research

7 km 2.2 km

Verification Research develops techniques targeted toward high-resolution forecasts

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WWRP Long Term Challenges:Verification Research (VR)

Promote and provide training on verification methods and encourage:

(a) the appropriate selection and use of verification approaches for specific evaluation problems;

(b) the implementation of improved methods in operational and research settings;

Advance verification methods for forecasts of probability distributions for high-impact weather;

To develop techniques targeted toward high-resolution forecasts; and

Assess uncertainty in verification statistics.

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Mesoscale Forecasting Research in Canada (IPY-THORPEX, Winter Olympics 2010 and Great Lakes and St-Lawrence River FDP): Limited Area Modelling at 2.5 km

Atlantic domain

Arctic domain

Eastern Domain

West domain

Lancaster Strait Domain

Nares Strait Domain

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Atlantic domain’

Arctic domain

Eastern Domain

West domain

Lancaster Strait Domain

Nares Strait Domain

Moving grid

Mesoscale Forecasting Research in Canada (extra-tropical hurricane transition)

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WWRP Long Term Challenges: Tropical Meteorology Research (TMR)

Contribute to advancing the representation of tropical convection and its interaction with the large-scale circulation (including mid-latitude) through participation in the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) project initiated by the WCRP and THORPEX;

Conduct activities to advance understanding and capability to predict tropical cyclones and monsoons in collaboration with the THORPEX programme, the MWFR and the NR; and

Promote tropical meteorology research among the WMO members that will lead to improved observation, analysis, forecast, and warning systems for high-impact weather events in the tropics.

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WWRP Long Term Challenges: Societal and Economic Research and Applications (SERA)

Develop, review and promote societal and economic-related demonstration projects focused on high-impact weather, information and decision making;

Advance the communication of weather forecast uncertainty, economic and societal value ;

Develop user-relevant verification methods; and

Develop decision support systems and tools.

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www.windatlas.ca

Atlas published in Oct. 2004 Wind atlas website: 100 000+ visitors/year

since 2004 Validation with 192 met. stations

Bias: 0.02 m/s RMS error: 0.88 m/s Correlation coefficient: 0.80

Canadian Wind Energy Atlas and its validation

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and the list of environmental prediction applications continues…

To protect Human Health

- Daily and High Impact Weather Forecasts- Water quality/quantity forecasts- Air Quality Forecasts- Flooding conditions- Urban meteorology (heat wave, security)

For government efficiency and effectiveness in delivering public and national security services

- Operations, domestically and internationally- Coast Guard operations, ice and storm surge forecasts

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and …

For energy production, distribution and strategic network management

- Wind energy climatology- Wind power forecasts for wind farms nationally- Peak power demand forecasts in heat waves or cold spells to better manage grids and distribution networks- Regional climate change scenarios for long term watershed management (reservoirs) so that strategic funding decisions can be made by financial syndicates

For other industrial sectors

- Transport (e.g., road, maritime and aviation security)- Tourism and Recreation (e.g., avalanche forecasting, seasonal temperature)- Agriculture (e.g., soil mosisture, futures market, pest control, micro-farming and droughts)- Construction- Forestry (e.g., pest control and forest fire)

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and finally …

For validation and enforcement of international protocols, international emergencies- Volcanic Ash modeling- Nuclear Test Ban Treaty - Contaminant trajectories- Water level regulation and adaptive management

For the health of people and sustainability of ecosystems- In climate change scenario modes, we can now project decades ahead the state of major watershed and surrounding ecosystems- We can simulate long range transport of toxics and pollutants from any part of the globe

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World Weather Research Programme Strategic Plan

Available on the WWRP webpage at www.wmo.int

« At the dawn of this new century, significant research and development challenges remain to be met before acceptable meteorological and environmental forecasts can be produced worldwide over every spatial scale (from urban to planetary) and time scale (from a few minutes to seasons). The success of this endeavour will depend, of course, on the collaboration, commitment, excellence and strength of the weather, climate and Earth-system research communities. On this point, the 20th century track record provides a solid base for confidence »