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Implementation Plan for the WWRP Polar Prediction Project

Thomas Jung, Steering Group Chair

Neil Gordon, WMO Consultant

November 2011

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Outline

Short overview: existing draft Key project objectives Agreement on overall structure and chapters

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Existing draft Introduction Mission statement Benefits Research plan goals Strategies to achieve goals Major campaigns Governance and management Financial plan Implementation schedule Contributing institutions and organisations References Abbreviations Annexes

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Introduction

Motivation of the project Increasing importance of the polar regionsPrediction capabilities required

Background and history IPY and IPY legacyOslo workshop(s)EC-PORS and GIPPS

Now we motivate the structure of the remaining planProject vision including key objectives and benefitsPrimary research goals to achieve the visionStrategies for achieving the goals

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Mission statement

Statement of the key objectives

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To be discussed later!

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Benefits

Highlight the benefits of the project Who would be the beneficiaries? What will the benefits be? (see also GIPPS) Highlight that further research is necessary throughout

the 10-year period (see research goals and strategy)

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Research goals: Detailed SERA: Research and document user requirements and benefits

of improved polar predictions Verification: Establish and monitor verification metrics Predictability and forecast error diagnosis (especially on longer

time scales) Lower-latitude impacts: Identify lower-latitude implications of

forecast errors in polar regions Physical and dynamical processes: Improve coupled modelling

in polar regions Ensemble forecasting: Representation of initial and model

uncertainty Data assimilation: Improve initialization strategies Observations: Assess and promote required observational

improvements/carry out field campaigns

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Strategies to achieve goals

Enhance international collaboration: Discuss fundamental need of collaborative efforts

Strengthen linkages between academia, research institutions and operational centres

Establish and exploit special research data sets: TIGGE, YOTC, reforecasts etc.

Promote interaction between research and stakeholders: stakeholder identification, engagement strategy etc.

Linkages with other initiatives: WCRP, EC-PORS etc. Foster education efforts

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Major campaigns

Do we need such a special section?One could argue that this is part of the observations

part of the Research Plan Goals sectionOne could make this more wider in focus, though

(e.g YOTC-like). Could still be moved

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Governance and Management

Governance linkages with WCRP, EC-PORS, THORPEX ICSC, WWRP JSC

How will the steering group operate? Monitoring, review and evaluation Stakeholder engagement Establishment and hosting of a project office Website Terms of reference

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Funding

Funding for overall project management Funding for research programme activities

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Implementation schedule

Extending over 10 years including milestones Example of a milestone: mid-term review after 5 years.

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Other sections

Contributing institutions and organizations References Abbreviations Annexes

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Key project objectives

Draft plan: “Significantly improved weather and environmental predictions in polar regions, on time scales from hours to months” Improved prediction is central (user focused)Top-down approach (funding agencies)

ICSC-9 document: “Provide a framework for cooperative international research and development efforts to improve high impact weather, climate, and environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions”

Another Option: Mentioning GIPPS explicitly (“Contribute to the development of the Global Integrated…”)

We could think of a combination of two

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Agreement on overall structure and chapters

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Thank you!

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Research goals Improved understanding of user requirements?

Includes research into the communication of predictions (+uncertainty)

Establishing the status quo: How good are we? Verification and reforecasts

Determining the limits: Especially for sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts Potential predictability studies

Determining the gaps Determine gap between potential and actual skill Obvious gaps (e.g. lack of observations) Objective techniques (origins of forecast error)

Filling the gaps

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RPWhat is an Implementation Plan?

An implementation plan helps selling a project An implementation plan is a tool for efficient

management of a project and monitoring of progress

An implementation plan describes how a project will be delivered on time, on budget, and on expectations

Here our task will be to write an implementation plan for the coming 10 years.

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RPWhat it should/could incorporate

Clear statement of the goals of the WWRP-PPP Benefits resulting from achieving these goals Detailed plan how the goals will be achieved including

Deliverables and milestones,An implementation schedule

Resource management Funding Risk management Stakeholder engagement Governance and accountability Review, monitoring and evaluation Additional information

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Defining the goals

Could be formulated in terms of a project vision A good vision statement

Written in present tense (description of desired future)

Is short, concise and memorableCan be understood by stakeholders

Vision statement must reflectThe key objectivesThe underlying need or problemContext including approvals to date (e.g. decisions

by governing bodies)

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Benefits

Describe intended beneficiaries for each of the objectives

Benefits expected by specific objectives/deliverables Monitoring and delivery of benefits Benefits should be

SpecificMeasurableAchievableRelevantTime framedAgreed

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Deliverables

List of all products and services to be delivered For each deliverable

List milestones that need to be achievedA milestone is an important check-pointResources needed to achieve each deliverable

Explain what activities will be undertaken to deliver the project

Identify related activities (e.g. within CLIVAR)What is done in the framework of the WWRP-PPP

and what is done elsewhere? Provide implementation schedule

What will be delivered when?

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Resource management

Managing resources is an issue since there is little control over resources (human and monetary)

Required expertise (e.g. steering group) Budget/funding

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Risk management

Plan for and deal with uncertainty Risk is an uncertain event that will have an influence

on the achievements of project goals Risk identification

Changing circumstancesChanges to the scope of the projectsDiscussion with stakeholders

Risk planningDevelopment of a risk management plan

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Stakeholder engagement

Identifying and communicating effectively with those people or groups who have an influence or interest in the outcome of the project

Development of a Stakeholder Engagement Strategy Stakeholder identification Development of a Stakeholder engagement and

communication plan

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RPReview, monitoring and evaluation

Review of progress at regular time intervals Review conducted by WWRP-PPP steering group Progress reports are presented to various committees.

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RPWriting of the Implementation Plan:

Time table November 2011: Work on the skeleton of the IP Kick-off meeting:

Discussion of the structure of the IP Identification of key topics Identification of lead authorsAgreement on deadlines

Winter 2011/12: Writing of the IP Spring and summer 2012: Presentation to various

committees Autumn 2012: Establishment of a project office

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