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www.employment.gov.au
Overview of the South Australian Labour Market
Presenter: Ivan NevilleBranch Manager, Labour Market
Research and Analysis Branch
How is the South Australian labour market performing?Selected indicators over the last year
In line with a softening in labour market conditions at the national level…
• Employment - up by 2,000 (or 0.2 per cent)
• Unemployment - rose by 5,900 (or 11.7 per cent)
• Unemployment rate - 6.5 per cent, up by 0.6 percentage points
• Participation rate - 62.0 per cent, down by 0.1 percentage points
• State Final Demand - increased by 0.6 per cent
• Redundancies - 5,910 announced so far this year (56 per cent State
government)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Jan-
06M
ay-0
6Se
p-06
Jan-
07M
ay-0
7Se
p-07
Jan-
08M
ay-0
8Se
p-08
Jan-
09M
ay-0
9Se
p-09
Jan-
10M
ay-1
0Se
p-10
Jan-
11M
ay-1
1Se
p-11
Jan-
12M
ay-1
2Se
p-12
Jan-
13M
ay-1
3Se
p-13
Jan-
14M
ay-1
4Se
p-14
Internet vacancies in South Australia
Source: Department of Employment, Internet Vacancy Index, September 2014.
How does South Australia compare nationally?
Employment ('000)
Unemployment rate (%)
Participation rate (%)
Sep-14Annual change
Sep-14Annual change (% pts)
Sep-14Annual change (% pts)('000) (%)
NSW 3,615.9 31.7 0.9 5.8 0.2 62.9 -0.2
Vic 2,885.8 30.4 1.1 6.7 0.8 64.6 0.1
Qld 2,339.0 14.9 0.6 6.3 0.5 65.5 -0.5
SA 804.9 2.0 0.2 6.5 0.6 62.0 -0.1
WA 1,373.1 39.6 3.0 5.0 0.5 68.4 0.1
Tas 235.9 5.5 2.4 7.4 -0.6 60.7 0.8
NT 129.2 0.8 0.6 4.3 -0.9 72.6 -2.4
ACT 211.9 -0.1 -0.1 4.6 0.4 70.5 -1.1
Australia 11,592.5 121.9 1.1 6.1 0.3 64.5 -0.2
Employment growth by age and genderSouth Australia, Year to September 2014
15-24 25-54 55+ 15-24 25-54 55+Males Females
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
7.6
35.1
11.2 7.4
30.4
8.4
-36.2
43.1
29.2
8.1
77.4
-21.7
Share of total employment (%)
Share of total increase in employment (%)
Composition of employment growth by gender South Australia, Year to September 2014
Males Females Persons-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0 7.0
-3.6
3.4
-7.4
6.0
-1.4-0.4
2.3 2.0
Full-time Part-time Total
Empl
oym
ent g
row
th (‘
000)
The changing nature of industry employment in South Australia
Industry share of employment (%)
16.1
7.0
0.8
4.55.3
10.9
9.1
5.9
1.8
6.7
8.0
14.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Manufacturing Agriculture,Forestry and
Fishing
Mining Professional,Scientific and
Technical Services
Construction Health Care andSocial Assistance
Aug-94 Aug-14
Underemployment rising and above national average
Aug-
1990
Aug-
1992
Aug-
1994
Aug-
1996
Aug-
1998
Aug-
2000
Aug-
2002
Aug-
2004
Aug-
2006
Aug-
2008
Aug-
2010
Aug-
2012
Aug-
2014
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
South Australia Australia
Youth unemployment since the GFCHigher rates across most States and Territories
NSW Vic QLD SA WA Tas NT ACT Australia0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
9.9 9.7
7.4
10.8
6.2
10.5 10.7
6.2
8.8
12.2
14.2 13.714.7
9.7
17.7
9.1
11.2
13.2
Sep-08 Sep-14
Unem
ploy
men
t rat
e (%
)
Youth disengagementStates and Territories, September 2014
NSW Vic QLD SA WA Tas NT ACT Australia0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7.65.3
8.0 6.8 7.1 6.5
14.9
3.87.0
4.2
4.3
6.05.3 3.9 6.3
4.4
2.6
4.7
Not attending full-time education/unemployed
Not attending full-time education/NILF
Prop
ortio
n (%
) of 1
5-24
yea
r old
s
Unemployed youth less likely to move into employmentProbability of transitioning from unemployment to employment (15-24 year olds)
15.0%
17.0%
19.0%
21.0%
23.0%
25.0%
27.0%
29.0%
Jun-
01
Jun-
02
Jun-
03
Jun-
04
Jun-
05
Jun-
06
Jun-
07
Jun-
08
Jun-
09
Jun-
10
Jun-
11
Jun-
12
Jun-
13
Jun-
14
September 2008
Higher education and VET graduate outcomes weakerEmployment outcomes have weakened since 2008
• In 2013, 71.3% of bachelor degree graduates found full-time employment after graduatingo Lowest level since 1993o Large numbers working in lower
skilled occupations or fewer hours than they would like
• 78.2% of VET graduates found employment in 2013o Down by 4.2% pts since 2008
• The Department of Education projects that in 2017-18, around 30% of bachelor degree graduates will still be seeking full-time employment four months after completing their degree
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Bachelor DegreeGraduates
All VET Graduates Apprentice andTrainee Graduates
Long-term unemployment on the riseLong-term (52+ weeks) and total unemployed persons (‘000) in South Australia
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
30
40
50
60
5
7
9
11
13
15Total unemployment (LHS)
Long-term unemployment (RHS)
Youth share of LTU has increasedBurden of LTU disproportionately felt by 15-24 year olds in South Australia
• 15-24 year olds comprise just 15.8 per cent of the civilian 15+ population, yet make up 27.6 per cent of all long-term unemployed persons
Proportion of civilian (15+) population Proportion of total LTU0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
16.6
22.7
15.8
27.6
Sep-08 Sep-14
Shifts in LTU incidence in recent yearsLong-term unemployment share of total unemployment (%), South Australia
15-24 25-54 55+ 15-24 25-54 55+Males Females
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
9.4
27.328.8
10.7
18.3
32.3
19.1
27.8
30.7
18.0
29.0
19.5
Sep-08 Sep-14
LTU
inci
denc
e (%
)
Unemployed remain so for too longUnemployment duration (weeks) by age group, South Australia
15-24 25-54 55+ All persons0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
30
52
4745
13.2
4.94.2
6.5
Average duration of unemployment (weeks) (LHS) Unemployment rate (%) (RHS)
Regional hotspots
SA4 RegionUnemployment
rate (%)Participation
rate (%)Annual
employment growth (%)
Proportion of 15-64
population in receipt of
income support
Proportion of 15-64
population who have a
Bachelor Degree or
above
Sep-14 Sep-14 Sep-14 Sep-14 Aug-11Adelaide - Central and Hills 3.7 64.4 -0.5 8.3 37.2
Adelaide - North 8.3 61.8 3.6 19.5 14.2
Adelaide - South 6.5 59.8 -7.8 13.9 22.9
Adelaide – West 6.6 65.0 8.6 15.3 22.6Barossa - Yorke - Mid North 5.4 60.4 3.8 19.1 11.0
South Australia - Outback 7.4 59.9 4.9 21.2 11.1South Australia - South East 5.5 60.3 2.0 18.7 10.6
South Australia 6.5 62.0 0.2 15.7 20.7
Labour market outcomes for people with disabilities15-64 year olds, South Australia
With reported disability No reported disability
2012 2009 2003 2012 2009 2003
Share of total employment (%) 10.8% 11.3% 13.3% 89.0% 88.7% 86.7%
Unemployment rate (%) 9.5% 8.3% 9.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.5%
Participation rate (%) 52.6% 54.5% 51.4% 83.2% 83.5% 81.0%
• 21.5 per cent of South Australians live with a disability (18.5 per cent nationally)
• Labour market outcomes remain considerably poorer for people with disabilities
• The number of employed people with a disability has fallen by 3.3 per cent since 2009
Going forward, conditions are expected to remain subdued
A number of downside risks remain to these forecasts:
• Faster than expected withdrawal by Holden and Toyota
• Defence contracts potentially going overseas
• Ongoing business and consumer caution
• Rate and size of fall in mining investment
Economic and labour market forecasts, South Australia
2014-15 2015-16Gross State product (%) 2.25 2.5Employment (%) 1.0 1.25Unemployment rate (%)* 6.7 6.7
Projected employment growth in South Australia- selected industries, five years to November 2018
Source: Department of Employment, 2014 Employment Projections to November 2018.
-5.4
-0.8
1.1
1.7
1.8
2.1
3.1
4.7
6.7
6.7
14.9
-10 -5 0 5 10 15
Manufacturing
Mining
Accommodation and Food Services
Administrative and Support Services
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Public Administration and Safety
Retail Trade
Construction
Education and Training
Health Care and Social Assistance
Conclusion
• Labour market conditions currently subdued• Treasury forecasts and forward indicators
suggest soft labour market outlook• Future labour market challenges– Long-term unemployed– Youth– Ageing population/ declining participation– Mining transition from construction to production phase– Ongoing structural change