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Reducing nutrient loadings from agricultural soils to the Baltic Sea

via groundwater and streams

Soils2Sea team

Partner Logo

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Outline

• Soils2Sea – partners, budget • Problems and challenges addressed by Soils2Sea• Scientific objectives• Methodologies - tasks• Project outputs

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The BONUS Programme is supported by the national research funding institutions in the eight EU member states around the Baltic Sea and the EU Research Framework Programme (Article

185). Scientists from the Russian Federation participate in BONUS research projects through special agreements.

The Bonus ProgrammeScience for a better future of the Baltic Sea Region

For info on BONUS see: http://www.bonusportal.org/

For info on EC Article 185 see: http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/art185/about-185_en.html

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Soils2Seateam

• GEUS, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark (GEUS - coordinator)• Aarhus University, Denmark (AU)• AGH University of Science and Technology, Krakow, Poland (AGH)• Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden (KTH)• Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden (SMHI)• ECOLOGIC Institute, Berlin, Germany (EI)• Sorbisense A/S, Denmark (SOR)• Atlantic Branch of P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology Russian Academy of Sciences, Kaliningrad,

Russia (ABIORAS)

Multidisciplinary• Climate• Agriculture• Surface water• Groundwater• Policy and stakeholder

processes

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• Project period: 2014 - 2017 (Russia 3 years)• Budget: € 3.2 million + Russian funding to ABIORAS

Period and budget

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Source: EEA report no 8/2012

Chemical status of transitional and

coastal waters in the EU

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Total ammonium

Total phosphorus

Nitrate

Decreasing trends

However, not enough for N

Nutrients in European riversAverage river concentrations

Good status

2015

Source: EEA report no 9/2012

2027

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Challenge 1How to make most cost-effective

reductions of agricultural nutrient loads

Uniform regulations easier to administrate (same reduction targets for all)

Spatially differentiated regulations more cost-effective• Need for reduction differs from area to area depending on

ecological conditions in coastal waterWFD

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WFD

Acceptable N-loading (and reduction target) varies between subcatchments depending on conditions in marine ecosystem

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Uniform regulations easier to administrate (same reduction targets for all)

Spatially differentiated regulations more cost-effective• Need for reduction differs from area to area depending on

ecological conditions in coastal water• Efficiency of reduction differs from area to area, because the

retention/removal of nutrients in groundwater and surface water systems shows a significant spatial variation, depending on the local hydrogeological and riverine regime

Need for more knowledge and tools

WFD

NEWSoils2Sea

Challenge 1How to make most cost-effective

reductions of agricultural nutrient loads

N-reduction varies spatially at small scalesTotal reduction (groundwater + surface water)• Calculated N-leaching from root zone• Observed N-flux at river gauging stations

Reduction in groundwater – 100 m grid• Calculated by model – is it correct?• NiCA project www.nitrat.dk

UngaugedUngaugexxxxxd

Hansen et al. (2014)

Regulation should exploit local variation in nitrate reduction

- Illustrated below for groundwater- Similar idea for retention in streams and lakes

More than 50% of the nitrate leaching from the root zone is reduced/disappears in the subsurface when flow lines cross below the redox interface (in Denmark)

If we can identify areas where subsurface reduction takes place we can plan a more cost-effective regulation

Figure from Hinsby et al. (2008)

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Challenge 2Which governance regime should be used

together with spatially differentiated regulation?Present regulation• Top-down• Regulation of nutrient input• Heavy bureaucracy• Farmers do not like bureaucrats decide on details of agricultural practice

New governance concepts to be investigated• Combined top-down and bottom-up• Regulation based on emissions and loadings

– Farmers get rid of regulation of nutrient input and bureacracy– Farmers must commit on reduction targets (self governance)– Local data and knowledge can be fully utilised

• How to make control monitoring?• Stakeholder acceptance of uncertainties (who carries the risk)?

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• To analyse how changes in land cover, agricultural practices and climate may affect the nutrient load to the Baltic Sea and to test how robust nutrient load reduction measures are towards plausible climate change and land use scenarios (WP2).

• To develop and test new methodologies for identifying areas with small, respectively large, retention in the subsurface of nutrients leaving the soil surface or the root zone by improving process understanding of flow paths, travel times and nutrient retention immobilization (WP3).

• To develop and test new methodologies for assessing the variation in retention among different surface water systems by improving the understanding of nutrient retention in surface waters (surface runoff, drain runoff, rivers, wetlands, lakes) (WP4).

• To evaluate the reliability of high-resolution multi-basin scale models for assessing the impacts of land cover and climate changes including the effects of possible nutrient reduction measures and to assess the possible overall impacts of new spatially differentiated regulation strategies on the total riverine nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea (WP5).

• To develop new governance concepts targeted at differentiated output based regulations including threshold values for N in groundwater through active involvement of stakeholders in implementation and monitoring (WP6).

Scientific objectives

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Soils2Sea workpackages

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Case study areas

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Methodologies - tasksLand cover, agricultural practices and climate

• Develop joint land use and climate change scenarios and their impacts on N and P losses from agriculture

• Scenario analyses of spatially differentiated N measures in catchments

• Scenario analyses of spatially differentiated N measures in catchments

• Scenarios for the Baltic Sea basin

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Methodologies - tasksGroundwater retention

• Field investigations – hillslopeo How wrong are our models in simulating

flow paths and nitrate reduction?o Upscale data and process descriptions

1 km hillslope (2-5 m grid) 1000 km2 catchment (50 – 500 m grid) Baltic Sea scale (50 – 500 km2 scale)

• Assess impacts of land use and climate change• Identify areas with low/high nitrate reduction for spatially

differentiated regulation (for N and P)• Tests against data from case studies in Denmark and Poland

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Methodologies - tasksSurface water retention

• Tracer experiment in river reach• Upscale data and process descriptions from reach to

catchment scale• Retention of nutrients in streams and lakes at catchment scale• Influence of reservoir regulation on nutrient retention• Tests against data from case studies in Sweden and Poland

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Methodologies - tasksBaltic Sea basin scale

• Incorporating improved local scale understanding into HYPE

• Tests against data from case study in Russia• Test against historical data with recorded

changes in nutrient loads• Scenario analyses at Baltic Sea scale j 0 250 500 750 1 000

km

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Methodologies - tasksGovernance, monitoring and stakeholder processes

• Thresholds for nutrient in groundwater (part of GWD/WFD)• Policy instruments for differentiated regulations• Monitoring concepts for differentiated regulations• Policy briefs

• Development and test of concepts through stakeholder involvement in case studieso Norsminde, Denmarko Tullstorp, Swedeno Kocinka, Polando Pregolya, Russia (+ Poland)

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Conclusions - key outputs

• New methodologies for the planning of differentiated regulations based on new knowledge of nutrient transport and retention processes between soils/sewage outlets and the coast.

• Evaluation of how differentiated regulation can offer more cost efficient solutions towards reducing the nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea.

• Analysis of how changes in land use and climate may affect the nutrient load to the Baltic Sea as well as the optimal location of measures aiming at reducing the load.

• A high-resolution model for the entire Baltic Sea Basin with improved process descriptions of nutrient retention in groundwater and surface water tailored to make detailed simulations of management regulations differentiated in space.

• New knowledge based governance and monitoring concepts that acknowledge the relevant aspects of EU directives and at the same time are tailored towards decentralised decision making. The proposed spatially differentiated regulations will aim for incorporation of local scale knowledge to optimally design solutions.

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More information

• Objectives• Methodologies• Case study areas• Detailed work plan

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Thank you!

For more visit:www.soils2sea.eu

Soils2Sea has received funding from BONUS (Art 185) funded jointly from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and

demonstration, and from Baltic Sea national funding institutions.