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GLOBAL ENERGY: SOURCES AND EFFICIENCY AND THE NEED FOR EDUCATION IN SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, MATHEMATICS AND RESEARCH “STEM+R” IN ALL ENERGY APPLICATIONS
Doug Wyatt
General Session – STEM: Energy Efficiency/Renewable Energy Programs 7th Annual Minority Serving Institutes Technical Assistance National Training Conference
“Creating a Presence” Minority Serving Institutions Community of Partners Council (MSI-COPC) September 23-25, 2013, Gaithersburg, MD; National Institute of Standards and Technology
Tuesday, September 24, 2013
I would like to thank:
All thoughts, opinions, conjectures, predictions, mistakes and bad jokes are the sole responsibility of the author and do not reflect the position, beliefs or practices of the URS Corporation or the US Government.
Three simple talking points and one thought paradigm
• The growing need for energy • The energy mix of the future • The people and skills for future energy
• Think about energy in terms of its primary use – what it is needed for:
Transportation – Electricity – Heat
The human need for energy continues to grow globally. Not just because the world population is growing, but because energy is the cornerstone which serves as the tool, system, and economic driver for quantitative measurement in the quality of life. People in advanced societies expect readily available energy to supply light switches by the front door, a quick fill-up at the gas station, and gadgets such as iPhones. To supply this demand, identification of diverse forms of energy and how it is used falls under the constraints of scientific discovery. A need exists for energy research. This knowledge requires the process of understanding – leading to discovery, conversion, transmission, and utilization – before it can be beneficial. To meet this objective, a broad body of educational requirements is needed in science, engineering and technology to advance energy research. Ultimately, the development of an educated workforce and energy savvy public will drive cost-effective and environment-friendly solutions.
the most critical need for Energy is the currency of our future. the driver of
Energy
Total Electricity Net Consumption 2010 (Billion Kilowatt-hours)
Data Source: USDOE-EIA Image Source: http://images.nationalgeographic.com/wpf/media-live/photos/000/620/overrides/new-view-earth-at-night-world_62010_600x450.jpg
US China
Japan Russia India
Malaysia
Mozambique
Barbados
Chad
Energy
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
2009
Cont. AVG 2004
Cont. AVG 2009
Total Energy Consumption 2009 Per Capita (MBTU per Person)
Data Source: USDOE-EIA Image Source: http://images.nationalgeographic.com/wpf/media-live/photos/000/620/overrides/new-view-earth-at-night-world_62010_600x450.jpg
AF AS-OC
C-SA World
NA
EA
EU ME
Gibraltar Virgin Islands, U.S. Netherlands Antilles United Arab Emirates Qatar Trinidad and Tobago Iceland Singapore Kuwait Bahrain Norway Canada Luxembourg Brunei United States Saudi Arabia Australia Oman Nauru Belgium
Lesotho Tanzania Nepal Timor-Leste (East Timor) Guinea Liberia Malawi Uganda Burkina Faso Madagascar Ethiopia Congo (Kinshasa) Central African Republic Eritrea Niger Somalia Rwanda Mali Burundi Chad
China
India
Note: 1,000,000 BTU’s/year total ~ 8 hours/day of a 100 watt light bulb
Energy
Energy Definitions • Renewable energy is generally defined as energy that
comes from resources which are continually replenished on a human timescale such as streams, sunlight, wind, rain, tides, waves, biomass and geothermal heat.
• Non-renewable energy resources (also known as a finite resources) are resources that do not renew themselves at a sufficient rate for sustainable economic extraction in meaningful human timeframes.
Energy cannot be created or destroyed, it can only be changed from one form to another.” Albert Einstein
Modified from wikipedia.com and goodreads.com
Energy
(Resnick Institute, Cal. Inst. of Tech., 2013)
Total Global Energy Use by Type ‘Conventional’ and ‘Renewable’
Total = transportation plus electricity
FE = 85%
Energy
US Energy 1949-2011
Production Consumption
EIA, 2012
Energy
Paradigm Shift in Clean Energy Growth in Renewables, Extreme Growth in Natural Gas
Energy
Global Renewables Projection-EU Perspective NEW Global Energy Added TOTAL Global Energy Portfolio
http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2013/04/charts-renewable-energy-fossil-fuels
Assumes: •Global Carbon Tax •Decline in US Energy Demand •Increase in US Energy Efficiency •No Global Shale Gas Paradigm
Data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Energy
The Global Natural Gas Resource (The result of new science, technology, engineering, math and research)
The areal extent of global shale gas basins would cover almost all of the western hemisphere.
The areal extent of US shale gas basins would cover more than half the country.
Energy
Rig Lights Bakken
Rig Lights Eagleford
Rig Lights GoM
Energy
Energy and Water are Uniquely Interdependent!
Generally speaking, for energy use, only 2.5(.301+.013) X 31.4(.201+.0046) = 0.21% of global water is available and must compete with agriculture, industry and domestic consumption.
Energy
The US Model - Where energy is generated, transmitted and utilized is where the jobs will be……in relative proportion!
~95,100,000,000,000,000
63.8% O&G 18.3% Coal 8.5% Nuclear 8.8% Renewable
Efficiency
“Each year the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory releases an analysis of the energy input and energy use of the US economy to determine the energy efficiency. The United States wasted 61% of all its energy input in 2012. That's enough energy to power the United Kingdom for seven years. We are just 39% energy efficient. Of the 95.1 quadrillion BTUs of raw energy that entered the US economy, only 37.0 quadrillion BTUs were actually used.”
A GREAT REASON FOR RESEARCH & TECHNOLOGY!
Factoid: Between the time coal is mined, burned, the steam turbine generates electricity, the electricity is transported, and your incandescent bulb glows, 84% of the energy from the coal is lost!
Efficiency
Transitioning from Energy Waste to Wise Energy Use – Coal Example
FC Hybrids Smart Grid
We can increase efficiency by more than 10x!
coal electricity
~65% loss ~ 4.8%+ loss
Generation Transmission Distribution
electricity electricity
~ 88% loss
End-Use
~ 5.1% loss
~4 Overall Efficiency
Adapted from AEP, Ohio Fuel Cell Coalition, June 2009
Ordinary Lighting
Today
Tomorrow ~40 Overall Efficiency
Coal, gas, renewables electricity electricity Solid-State Lighting
Current Technology
~40% loss ~8% loss ~28% loss
Loss per step
Loss per step
The role of ‘Efficiency’ in Energy is a necessity, critical, paramount… … and demanding of a STEM education!
Efficiency
In 2012, we had the most energy-efficient economy in US history from Mark .J. Perry April 26, 2013
http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/04/chart-of-the-day-in-2012-the-us-had-the-most-energy-efficient-economy-in-history/
Efficiency
Typical Energy Source Efficiencies (output only) plus STEM skills needed in these areas • Solar Cell/Panel ~15 - 21% • Hydroelectric ~50 - 85% • Wind ~30 - 35% • Fuel Cell ~47% electric & ~90%
thermal • Biomass ~7 - 27% to 30 – 40% if
co-fired • Tidal ~85% if tides >7 meters • Geothermal ~16% average • Coal ~30 - 35% • Nuclear ~35% based on steam
production
The role of ‘Efficiency’ in Energy is a necessity, critical, paramount… But remember, efficiency is the result of the entire lifecycle! … STEM skills are needed for the entire lifecycle.
DOE
Efficiency
“US Energy Boom to Create 500,000 Additional Jobs by 2020”
1244 jobs posted globally from 9/6/13 through 9/13/13! 85% of these jobs require STEM skills!
For September, 2013 URS has 217+ open positions requiring STEM education.
STEM+R Employment
Forbes 15 Most Valuable College Majors (plus a few more) 1. Biomedical Engineering 2. Biochemistry* 3. Computer Science* 4. Software Engineering* 5. Environmental Engineering* 6. Civil Engineering* 7. Geology* 8. Management Information Systems* 9. Petroleum Engineering* 10. Applied Mathematics* 11. Mathematics* 12. Construction Management* 13. Finance* 14. Physics* 15. Statistics* 16. Chemical Engineering 17. Materials Science 18. Mechanical Engineering 19. Process Engineering 20. Safety/Safety Engineering
For global energy needs, it is critically important to understand that none of
these disciplines are stand-alone. There is a common thread of
knowledge and understanding in science and math that is required.
STEM+R Employment
Required Skills of the Energy Industry as Compared with STEM Occupations
BLS (Ben Cover, John I. Jones, and Audrey Watson), 2011, Science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) occupations: a visual essay.
Skills required/dominant in both fossil and renewable energy
STEM+R Employment
Good Advice from Texas A&M
There is more to STEM than just coursework. STEM graduates need these skills in any concept of a global energy future.
STEM+R Employment
The STEM Dilemma: A UK Perspective “STEM subjects are integral to the UK’s success: the UK is the world’s sixth largest manufacturer, engineering turnover is around £800 billion per year, and whilst the UK makes up only 1% of the world’s population, we produce 10% of the world’s top scientific research. Despite this, it is remarkable to note that even though STEM graduates have the potential to earn amongst the highest salaries of all new recruits, employers are finding it difficult to recruit STEM skilled staff. And alongside our need for a skilled STEM workforce, it is crucial that all young people, regardless of their future career pathway, have the STEM knowledge and skills they need to be an informed citizen in an increasingly scientific and technological society.”
http://www.nationalstemcentre.org.uk
Multiply the issue 5 or 6 times for the US!
STEM+R Employment
U.S. Science and Engineering Labor Force Stalls, but Trends Vary Across States, Mark Mather and Diana Lavery
Population Research Bureau, http://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2012/scientists-engineers.aspx
STEM+R Employment
STEM + R: Requirements for Energy (1) • My Definitions for STEM + R as related to Global Energy:
• Science ≡ the universal foundation principals for understanding, evaluating, producing, and utilizing energy.
• Technology ≡ a useable product developed from Science + Engineering.
• Engineering ≡ the discipline of conversion of scientific information into useful human processes
• Mathematics ≡ the language used to communicate in both Science and Engineering
• Research ≡ the process of learning, creating, understanding and merging information through Science and Mathematics into useful Engineering principles (so that new Technology can be developed)
All in a work scenario that is comprised of Globalized, Multidisciplinary, High Performance and Advanced Computational work teams!
STEM+R Employment
STEM + R: Requirements for Energy (2) • Academic Needs for STEM + R as related to Global Energy:
• Science ≡ Astronomy, Geosciences, Biosciences, Physics, Physical Geography, Chemistry
• Technology ≡ Economics, Marketing, Business, Management, ESHQA
• Engineering ≡ Chemical, Mechanical, Process, Petroleum, Materials, Computer, Information, Nuclear
• Mathematics ≡ Calculus through Basic Differential Equations, Statistics (Monte Carlo, Bayesian, etc), Applied
• Research ≡ Advanced Thinking, Lab Processes, Innovation
IMHO, students following an Engineering path should be required to have more courses in Science and Technology as well as a “How To” Research course. Students following a Science path should be required to have “Understanding” Engineering courses as well as Research courses. All should be required to have basic Technology coursework.
STEM+R Employment
A research “team” with STEM skills
Micro-CT Structure Scan
Integrated Technology Development Accelerating Technology through Collaboration – TRL’s
Time
Scal
e, S
yste
m C
ompl
exity
Basic Principle
Paper Study
Proof of Concept
Component Test (Real Environment)
Basic Energy Science
ARPA-e
R&D Program Demonstration Program
Industry
Component Test (Laboratory)
Demonstration (>5% Scale)
Commercial Operation
Pilot Test (~5% Scale)
Process Test (<5% Scale)
STEM training is not just for specific activities but is required for all.
STEM+R Employment
STEM is varied and can be fun!
an example from mtu.edu
Good enough?
16 credits
STEM+R Employment
Innovation for the Future of Energy
+ = Paper, pencil
3-5 minutes > 20 ideas
Thanks to David Owens
Some estimate the Learning Rate Curve in Energy is about 20%. Some estimate that the benefit to cost ratio of Energy Learning (Innovation) is about 15 to 1. Historically, great innovation in Energy has come intermittently followed by progressive technology. We need both!
STEM+R Employment
THANK YOU Dr. Doug Wyatt [email protected]
