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Fin 354 term project
Course: Fin 354 Wyckoff Method
Instructor: Hank Pruden
Student: Lai Wei. 0569972
Abstract:
Under Wyckoff Method, we applied stock sentiment and momentum
analysis to predict
the trend of Ford Company (Symbol: F), as well as trading
statics. At first, the article
studies the performance of the 4 main market indices and the
industry index where Ford
belongs to. After the analysis of primary trend, under supply
and demand law, the
individual stock trend will be analyzed by volume and price
pattern. 9 buying or selling
test then will be used to help trader to build profit positions
or exit strategy. At last, a
short sell trading static will be recommended as to Ford
Company.
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Part 1: Market Trend Analysis.
Market indices: S&P 500, Nasdaq, NYSE, DJIA, and DJUSAU
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According the trend line and OBV indictor, the 4 main market
indices, including U.S. automobile
industry index, have shown a signal of reversal in trend from
previous uptrend to present
downtrend.
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There are 7 columns.
Target price=7*3*1+9=30$ / share.
It doesnt accomplish the price objective.
2. Activity bearish.---Yes
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As the blue curves show, the volume decrease on rallies and
increases on reactions.
3. Preliminary supply, buying climax.---Yes.
As chart 1-1 labels.
4. Average or stock weaker than market.Yes.
Relative strength comparison:
5. Upward stride broken.---Yes.
As chart 1-1 labels.
6 & 7.
Lower high, lower low ? ---Not clear, for weekly chart---- Yes,
for daily chart.
8. Crown forming-----Yes.
9. Estimated profit is at least 3 times the indicated risk for
stop-order placementYes.
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Target price=17.45-3*3*1= 8.45$
The price of LSPY is 16.67$
(8.45-16.67) : (17.45-16.67)=10:1 is greater than 3:1
Part 3: Individual stocks: General Motor (GM)
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a. Supply and demand:
The big volume bars have showed the change of investor behavior.
In addition, after the BC, the
following huge volume told us the composite man has begun to
sell out the stock.
b. 9 selling test:
From the whole life cycle we can see, GM is experiencing a
distribution phase.
1. Price objective. 18.5+5*3*1=33.5$---------Yes.
2,3 test-----Yes, see labeling.
4. test------Yes:
5. test---No. See labeling.
6. No
7. No.
8. Yes.
9. Targe price=41-6*3*1=23$, (33.5-23):(41-33.5)=1.4, smaller
than 3:1. ----No.
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Part 4. Individual stock #3--
Price objective: 58+16*3*1=106$
(106-76):(76-58)=1.6:1, smaller than 3:1
