1
October 29, 2014Dr. Tabassum Khan
Global Market Potential for Halal Vaccines
2
• As the Muslim population continues to grow (estimated at 1.6 billion people in 2014), demand for halal alternatives is increasing, driving investments in this area. Therefore, it has become strategically essential to know about the potential for halal vaccines covering financial, medical and social aspects.
• The Million Dollar Question: Will Halal Vaccines have a negative impact on the current immunization goals? Will the arrival of halal vaccines in immunization coverage lead to disease prevention in larger segments of the populations through increased acceptability?
Halal Vaccines- An Introduction
3
Global Potential for Halal Vaccines
• It is extremely important to comprehend that studying the potential for halal vaccines does not undermine the importance of current vaccines nor does it entail that the unavailability of halal vaccines should jeopardize the current immunization goals
• On the contrary it creates a larger canvas where the current immunization coverage could be improved by removing the mental blockade in certain segments of the population
• It should also be well understood that development of halal vaccines should not in any way compromise on the quality and should not be inferior in any aspect to the existing vaccines.
• The development of halal vaccines should be based on two principles; first and foremost they should exhibit at least non-inferiority to the existing vaccines and secondly they should be acceptable from a social Muslim perspective.
4
• Halal pharmaceuticals are drug products that do not contain any parts or products of animals that are regarded as non-halal by Sharia law (dogs, pigs, and their descendants) or any parts or products of animals that are not slaughtered according to Sharia law
• During their preparation, processing, handling, packaging, storage, and distribution, halal pharmaceutical products need to be physically separated from other pharmaceutical products that do not meet the requirements for halal products, or any other items that have been regarded as non-halal by Sharia law
• As with other pharmaceutical products, halal pharmaceuticals are also safe for consumption, non-poisonous, non-intoxicating, and non-hazardous to health according to prescribed dosage
Halal Pharmaceuticals: A Definition
5
• In the current scenario, in some Muslim populated countries pork-free and alcohol free vaccines are regarded as halal, though not certified as halal
• In most Islamic countries, authorities did not have a clear cut definition of halal vaccines based on Shariah law
• Malaysia, and to a lesser extent India, had a more clear cut approach towards halal certification of vaccines
• It was a common perception that Islamic religious leaders would play a key role in defining Halal vaccine standards
• All the countries across APAC, North Africa, and GCC region follow similar definition for halal vaccines in compliance with the Shariah law
• Islamic leaders in the region play a key role in defining acceptance of a given vaccine as halal
Perceived definitions of Halal vaccines in key markets
Through interviews with a cross-section of the population in the Islamic world, where they were asked how they perceive halal vaccines, the following points emerged:
6
Perceived definition contd.
• The vaccine does not contain any parts or products of animals that are non-halal by Shariah law or any parts or products of animals that are not slaughtered according to Shariah law
• Entire production line and manufacturing facility, including devices, machines, and processing aides deployed at a manufacturing facility must be used for production of halal vaccines or halal pharmaceutical products only
• Sufficient measures should be taken to prevent contamination of vaccine at all stages of production
• Processing, handling, packaging, storage, and transportation should be physically separated from any other non-halal product or najs
However according to experts in the field, any vaccine can be certified as halal ONLY if it complies with following guidelines:
7
Guidelines for Halal PharmaceuticalsMS 2424
8
Global Pharmaceutical Market Sales and Dynamics by Segment (2013)
Global pharmaceutical market
USD 1,000 B (+2%)
Non biotech branded ethicals
USD 412 B (-3%)
41%
Biotech branded ethicals¹
USD 180 B (+7%)
18%
Generics2
USD 283 B (+8%)
28%
OTC
USD 125 B (+4%)
13%
Branded ethical drugs: USD 592 B (59%) (-0%)
9
The vaccines market is characterized by:
High degree of innovation
High upfront capital investments…
… creating a strong barrier to entry for new entrants
Complex manufacturing know-how
Biological competencies
Longer product lifespans than pharmaceuticals
Specific business models according to the types of vaccines and the geographical regions served
Long-standing relationships with governments and healthcare authorities
Huge unmet needs, especially in emerging markets
Limited number of strong players
18%
19%
20%
14%
7%
22%
Sanofi¹
Merck & Co¹
GSK
Pfizer
Novartis
Worldwide vaccines market 2013: USD ≈ 28 B
Others2
% of total market in value
Global Vaccine Market Performance
World Vaccine Market as a fraction of the Global Pharmaceutical Market: 2.8 percent
10
Global Market Potential for Halal Vaccines
11• Source: “State of the global Islamic economy”, Thomson Reuters, 2013 - www.onislam.net/ -
www.nst.com.my/
• Malaysia is a global hub of halal industry and can become the world's first halal vaccine hub
Global Potential for Halal Vaccines- Introduction
The potential for Halal vaccines
It was estimated that Muslim consumers globally spent USD 70 billion on pharmaceuticals in 2012, which was 6.6% of global pharmaceuticals expenditure
Vaccines can be controversial: – Many Muslims refuse to vaccinate their children due to various reasons, including the belief of the presence
of porcine elements in the manufacturing process in some vaccines The meningitis vaccine is required for hajj pilgrims but the halal status of the variants that are available in the market have been contested
– Etc. The Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) is emphasizing a push to make vaccines that conform to
religious dietary restrictions in an effort to increase their use and improve public health According to several specialists, Malaysia has potential to position itself as the leader in the production of halal
vaccines and medicines
• Source: "Muslim Population by Country". The Future of the Global Muslim Population. Pew Research Center. Retrieved 22 December 2011.- "Region: Middle East-North Africa". The Future of the Global Muslim Population. Pew Research Center. Retrieved 22 December 2011 - Pew Research Center 2014 12
Most attractive countries
Muslim population - Top 20 countries
Ind
ia
Ind
on
es
ia
Pa
kis
tan
Ba
ng
lad
es
h
Eg
yp
t
Nig
eria
Iran
Tu
rke
y
Alg
eria
Mo
roc
co
Iraq
Su
da
n
Afg
ha
nis
tan
Eth
iop
ia
Uzb
ek
ista
n
Sa
ud
i Ara
bia
Ye
me
n
Ch
ina
Sy
ria
Ma
lay
sia
0
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
217,286,000
207,034,045
178,097,000
148,607,000
80,024,000
75,728,000
74,819,000
74,660,000
34,780,000 32,381,000
31,108,000
30,855,000
29,047,000
28,721,000
26,833,000
25,493,000
24,023,000
23,308,000
20,895,000
17,139,000
Muslim population (million)
Muslim percentage of
total population
Total Muslim population 2014: 1.619 Billion
Top 20 countries = 82% of Muslims
14.4% 86.1% 96.4% 90.4% 94.7% 47.9% 99.6% 98.6% 98.2% 99.9% 98.9% 71.4% 99.8% 33.8% 96.5% 97.1% 99.0 1.8% 92.8% 61.4%
Percentage of World Muslim
population13.4% 12.7% 10.9% 9.2% 4.9% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1%
• The first Muslim population is in India even if they represent a minority, while in Indonesia and Pakistan, the 2nd and 3rd countries, they count for more than 80%
13• Source: http://www.oicexchanges.org/ • * South Sudan not included
Most attractive countries
Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) countries
• The Organization of the Islamic Conference counts 57 countries, mainly localized in the Middle-East, Africa and South Asia and does not count India
*
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Republic of Gabon Republic of Maldives Republic of The Sudan*
Republic of Albania Republic of The Gambia Republic of Mali Republic of Suriname
People’s Democratic Republic of Algeria Republic of Guinea Islamic Republic of
Mauritania Syrian Arab Republic
Republic of Azerbaijan Republic of Guinea-Bissau Kingdom of Morocco Republic of Tajikistan
Kingdom of Bahrain Republic of Guyana Republic of Mozambique Republic of Togo
People’s Republic of Bangladesh Republic of Indonesia Republic of Niger Republic of Tunisia
Republic of Benin Islamic Republic of Iran Federal Republic of Nigeria Republic of Turkey
Brunei-Darussalam Republic of Iraq Sultanate of Oman Republic of Turkmenistan
Burkina-Faso Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan Islamic Republic of Pakistan Republic of Uganda
Republic of Cameroon Republic of Kazakhstan State of Palestine State of The United Arab Emirates
Republic of Chad State of Kuwait State of Qatar Republic of Uzbekistan
Union of The Comoros Kyrgyz Republic Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Republic of Yemen
Republic of Côte d’Ivoire Republic of Lebanon Republic of Senegal
Republic of Djibouti Great Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Republic of Sierra Leone
Arab Republic of Egypt Malaysia Republic of Somalia
14• Source: “State of the global Islamic economy”, Thomson Reuters, 2013
• In 2012, the first country in terms of pharmaceutical Muslim consumers was Turkey, followed by Saudi Arabia and Indonesia
Muslim pharmaceutical expenditures
Top 5 countries (2012)
14
2
5
3
Top 20 countries (2012)
Most attractive countries
JordanKuwait
MalaysiaIraq
Morocco
United Arab Emirates
Bangladesh
United Kingdom
IndiaEgypt
PakistanGermany
FranceRussiaAlgeria
USAIran
Indonesia
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
0.90.91.01.21.31.31.51.51.6
2.02.12.1
2.52.6
3.13.63.7
5.05.2
10.4
USD B
15• Source: State of the Global Islamic Economy Report 2013
• Turkey is the only country belonging to both top 5 medicines importers and top 5 exporters to the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) countries
Most attractive countries
Top medicines importers and exporters to the OIC countries
USD B
Top 5 countries (2012)
Egypt
UAE
Algeria
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
1.7
1.7
2.2
3.6
4.01
2
3
4
5
Malaysia
Jordan
Egypt
Indonesia
Turkey
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.71
2
3
4
5
Top importing countries
Top exporting countriesUSD B
1
23
2
44
5
5/2
16• Source: UNICEF Procurement Advancements, October 2013
• UNICEF procures vaccines and immunization supplies on behalf of around 100 countries annually
Most attractive countries
Overview of UNICEF procurement
Vaccines: BCG , DTP, TT/Td/DT, Measles containing, OPV, HepB, YF, DTP-HepB, DTP-HepB/Hib, DTP/Hib, Hib, MR, Meningitis, MMR, PCV, RV, HPV, IPV, etc.
Safe Injection equipment
Cold Chain Equipment
Immunization Supplies
Countries UNICEF procures on behalf of
Full schedule
Partial schedule
2012Vaccines Supplies USD 1,053m 1.89 B doses 1,946 shipments
17• Sources: UNICEF, GAVI, OIC
• 34 OIC countries are eligible for GAVI or UNICEF or both supports; the majority of these counties are located on the African continent
Most attractive countries
Overview of both UNICEF / GAVI and OIC countries
OIC + UNICEF full or partial schedule procurementOIC + eligible for GAVI supportOIC + UNICEF + GAVI support
South America: 1 country
Africa: 24 countries
Middle-east: 7 countries
Asia: 2 countries
Number of countries eligible for GAVI and/or UNICEF support
18• Sources: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division – WHO
immunization summary, 2014 edition – PEW Research on religion and public life – Smart Pharma Consulting analyses
• ¹Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP), oral polio, measles, hepatitis B (HepB), yellow fever in countries endemic for the disease, and Haemophilus influenzae meningitis (Hib) conjugate vaccine in countries with high burden of disease
• Indonesia is a secular state with a high percentage of Muslims; it’s the 2nd biggest market in terms of target population but suffers from low immunization coverage
Most attractive countries
Top 10 most attractive countries for halal vaccines (2/10)
Total population (2015):255 708 000 Muslim population (2015):220 164 588 (86.1%) Births / year (2012):4 736 000 Surviving infants (2012):4 614 000 Infants mortality rate (per 1000 live birth,
2012):26 Under-five mortality rate (per 1000 live birth,
2012):31 Gross national income/capita (USD, 2012):4 810 Percentage of routine EPI¹ vaccines financed
by government (2012):No data
Population data Immunization data
Place of Islam
Islamic republic State religion Secular stateIndonesia
BCG
DTP 1st dose
DTP 3rd dose
HepB 3rd dose
Hib 3rd dose
MCV
Polio 3rd dose
Tetanus 2nd dose
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
81%
91%
64%
64%
80%
69%
85%
Immunization coverage (2012) Corresponding population / year (2015)
3 267 840 hab.
3 788 800 hab.
3 031 041 hab.
3 031 041 hab.
4 309 760 hab.
3 836 160 hab.
BCG: 1 month
DT: 6 years
DTwPHep: 2, 3, 4 months
Hep. B: 0-7 days
Polio: 2, 3, 4 months
Oral polio: 1, 2, 3, 4 months
Measles: 9 month, 6 years
Tetanus, diphteria: 7-8 years
Vitamin A: 6-59 months
Immunization schedules (2012)
19• Sources: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division – WHO
immunization summary, 2014 edition – PEW Research on religion and public life – Smart Pharma Consulting analyses
• ¹ Expanded Program on Immunization: Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP), oral polio, measles, hepatitis B (HepB), yellow fever in countries endemic for the disease, and Haemophilus influenzae meningitis (Hib) conjugate vaccine in countries
with high burden of disease
• The Islamic republic of Pakistan is an important market in terms of target population but has low immunization coverage and is relatively poor
Most attractive countries
Top 10 most attractive countries for halal vaccines (3/10)
Total population (2015):188 144 000 Muslim population (2015):181 370 816 (96.4%) Births / year (2012):4 604 000 Surviving infants (2012):4 301 000 Infants mortality rate (per 1000 live birth,
2012):69 Under-five mortality rate (per 1000 live birth,
2012):86 Gross national income/capita (USD, 2012):3 030 Percentage of routine EPI¹ vaccines financed
by government (2012):No data
Population data Immunization data
Place of Islam
Islamic republic State religion Secular statePakistan
BCG
DTP 1st dose
DTP 3rd dose
HepB 3rd dose
Hib 3rd dose
MCV
Polio 3rd dose
Tetanus 2nd dose
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
87%
88%
81%
81%
81%
83%
75%
75%
Immunization coverage (2012) Corresponding population / year (2015)
3 453 000 hab.
3 453 000 hab.
3 821 320 hab.
3 729 240 hab.
3 729 240 hab.
3 729 240 hab.
4 051 520 hab.
4 005 480 hab.
BCG: birth
DT: 6 years
DTwPHibHep: 6, 10, 14 weeks
Measles: 9, 15 months
Oral polio: birth, 6, 10, 14 weeks
Pneumo. conjugate: 6, 10, 14 weeks
Tetanus: 1st contact or pregnancy, +1 month, +6 months, +1 year, +1 year
Immunization schedules (2012)
20• Sources: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division – WHO
immunization summary, 2014 edition – PEW Research on religion and public life – Smart Pharma Consulting analyses
• ¹ Expanded Program on Immunization: Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP), oral polio, measles, hepatitis B (HepB), yellow fever in countries endemic for the disease, and Haemophilus influenzae meningitis (Hib) conjugate vaccine in countries
with high burden of disease
• Malaysia’s high vaccination coverage and extensive immunization schedule make this relatively rich country an attractive market for halal vaccines
Most attractive countries
20th most attractive country for halal vaccines - Malaysia
Total population (2015):30 651 000 Muslim population (2015):18 819 714 (61.4%) Births / year (2012):516 000 Surviving infants (2012):514 000 Infants mortality rate (per 1000 live birth,
2012):7 Under-five mortality rate (per 1000 live birth,
2012):9 Gross national income/capita (USD, 2012):16 530 Percentage of routine EPI¹ vaccines financed
by government (2012):No data
Population data Immunization data
Place of Islam
Islamic republic State religion Secular stateMalaysia
BCG
DTP 1st dose
DTP 3rd dose
HepB 3rd dose
Hib 3rd dose
MCV
Polio 3rd dose
Tetanus 2nd dose
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
99%
99%
99%
98%
99%
95%
99%
90%
Immunization coverage (2012) Corresponding population / year (2015)
510 840 hab.
490 200 hab.
510 840 hab.
505 680 hab.
510 840 hab.
510 840 hab.
510 840 hab.
BCG: birth DT: 7 years DTwPHibPolio: 2, 3, 5, 18 months Hep. B: birth, 1, 6 month, health
workers HPV: 13 years Jap. E: 9, 10, 18 months, 5, 8, 11
years Measles: 6 months MMR: 1 year MR: 7 years Oral polio: 7 years Tdap: 15 years Tetanus: 15 years, pregnancy Typhoid: food handlers Yellow fever: travelers to endemic
countries
Immunization schedules (2012)
21• Source: “State of the global Islamic economy”, Thomson Reuters, 2013 - Factors driving halal pharma
market, Ecron Acunova – Smart Pharma Consulting analyses
• Pharmaceutical companies involved in halal medicines and/or vaccines should help the public understand that halal products are not necessarily just food and drinks
Key success factors on the halal vaccines market
Drivers and limiters in the Halal pharmaceutical market
Increasing population of Muslims Rising income among Muslim consumers Increasing demand for Halal pharmaceuticals and vaccines, thus,
huge opportunities for global suppliers as well as niche producers in the pharmaceutical value chain (e.g. companies that produce halal adjuvants)
OIC exporters/producers: many large pharmaceutical companies (eg. Julphar, Eczacıbaşı’s, Hikma, Kalbe Farma, etc.) from OIC countries have the infrastructure and resources to boost the market
Both authorities and NGOs are working to deliver universal access to immunization
Regulations/certifications: – Difference in certification standards and regulations (e.g. in Indonesia,
making mandatory halal regulations for pharmaceuticals is getting industry pushback)
– Certification process and standard may differ from country to country and one certification body to another
Long product development cycles
Controversy on vaccine usage that might be palliated through education, transparency and regulation/compliance
Lack of education and awareness: majority of the consumers (especially in Muslim majority markets) are ambivalent or unaware of non-allowed ingredients in medicine or cosmetics
Emerging competition on the halal vaccines market : Novartis MenA-CWY135 is the first quadrivalent conjugate vaccine and Global Vacc al-shifa’s HiB vaccine have received a halal certification
DRIVERS LIMITERS
22
Measles containing vaccines Hepatitis B vaccines DTP vaccines Hib vaccines BCG vaccines Pneumococcal vaccines Rotavirus vaccines
• Sources: Annual reports 2013 – Evaluate Pharma World Preview 2018 (2013) – Smart Pharma Consulting analyses
•EPI: Expanded Program on Immunization: Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP), oral polio, measles, hepatitis B (HepB), yellow fever in countries endemic for the disease, and Haemophilus influenzae meningitis (Hib) conjugate vaccine in countries with
high burden of disease
• Expanded Program on Immunization, pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccines account for USD 14.9 B and 62% of the vaccines market among the top 4 companies
Market sales potential by 2030
Methodology – Analyzed vaccines
Series1
Non-WHO EPI or pneumococcal or
rotavirusUSD 5 176 M
(38%)
WHO EPI + pneumococcal +
rotavirusUSD 12 406 M
(62%)
EPI + pneumococcal + rotavirus vaccines global market:
USD 17.5 B
Non-EPI & non-pneumococcal & non-rotavirus vaccines global
market:USD 10.5 B
Estimated split after the 2013 sales of top 4 manufacturers
Value of the global market by vaccine category in 2013
Analyzed vaccines
Total = USD 28 B
EPI + pneumococcal + rotavirus vaccines global market:
USD 50.2 B
Non-EPI & non-pneumococcal & non-rotavirus vaccines global
market:USD 30.8 B
Value of the global market by vaccine category in 2030
Total = USD 81 B
EPI
Meningococcal vaccines Influenza vaccines Human papillomavirus vaccines Herpes zoster vaccines Adult booster vaccines Travel or endemics vaccines Others
23• Sources: PEW research – United Nations – UNICEF/WHO immunization summary report 2014 – WHO
immunization coverage – Smart Pharma Consulting analyses
• The estimate of the number of doses per year takes into account the % of newborn Muslims p.a., the immunization coverage and the received number of doses
Market sales potential by 2030
Methodology – Number of doses
Total mus-lim popula-
tion
Top 20 countries in
terms of muslim
population
Number of Muslim new
born per year
1000
820
40
Immunization coverage
for each vaccine in each country
(according to WHO data)
Illustra
tive
Recommended number of doses
for each vaccine in each country (according to
UNICEF & WHO data)
Potential number of doses per year of halal vaccines in the
top 20 Muslim countries
Number of Muslim infants
24• Sources: World Bank – GAVI – PAHO – GERS – Smart Pharma Consulting analyses • ¹ According to PAHO revolving fund director "A country that purchases through the Revolving Fund can save at
least 11% in comparison to direct purchases from the producers”
• Three price categories were chosen to cover the analyzed countries and penetrations rates have been set according to the place of Islam and the % of Muslim in the country
Market sales potential by 2030
Methodology – Prices & penetration rates
Pharmaceutical expenditures per capita
Low Medium High
UNICEF / GAVI procurement prices
PAHO procurement prices + 11%¹
European prices based on the French case
Prices Penetration rates
Place of Islam in the country
% o
f M
usl
im in
th
e co
un
try
Secular country State religion Islamic
republic
Lo
wM
ed
ium
Saudi Arabia Turkey
AlgeriaChinaEgypt
Indonesia IraqIran
MalaysiaMoroccoSudanSyria
Afghanistan Bangladesh
EthiopiaIndia
NigeriaPakistan
UzbekistanYemen
Hig
h Very high penetration
Very low penetration
Medium penetration
N/A
N/A
N/A
Low penetration
High penetration
Medium penetration
25• Sources: Smart Pharma Consulting analyses
• In 2020, 2 years after the estimated arrival of the first halal vaccines, the considered market is expected to be worth USD 96 million in the top 20 Muslim countries
Market sales potential by 2030
Halal vaccines market in the top 20 Muslim countries - 2020 T
urke
y
Sau
di A
rabi
a
Pak
istan
Iraq
Egy
pt
Indo
nesia
Mor
occo
Iran
Sud
an
Ban
glad
esh
Afg
hani
stan
Yem
en
Alg
eria
Nig
eria
Indi
a
Mal
aysia
Eth
iopi
a
Syr
ia
Uzb
ekist
an
Chi
na
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,00026,207,613
19,608,882
9,690,0087,122,820
4,195,6293,926,3713,821,4963,296,9593,035,7572,913,3402,244,4772,222,4031,912,2251,530,7501,014,040915,341 729,768 668,819 654,392 102,148
Halal vaccines market in selected countries: USD ≈ 96 M
BCG DTP & combinations Hepatitis B & combinations Haemophilus influenzae & combinations Measles containing vaccines Polio Pneumococcal Rotavirus
Vaccines considered
Market in USD, million
26• Sources: Smart Pharma Consulting analyses
• In 2030, the considered halal vaccines market is estimated to be worth USD 1.1 billion in the top 20 countries in terms of Muslim population
Market sales potential by 2030
Halal vaccines market in the top 20 Muslim countries - 2020 T
urke
y
Sau
di A
rabi
a
Pak
istan
Iraq
Egy
pt
Indo
nesia
Mor
occo
Sud
an
Iran
Ban
glad
esh
Yem
en
Afg
hani
stan
Nig
eria
Alg
eria
Indi
a
Mal
aysia
Eth
iopi
a
Syr
ia
Uzb
ekist
an
Chi
na
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000284,472,283
216,061,507
121,517,080111,456,104
48,733,59448,047,19245,544,82541,112,57135,821,81634,847,42129,558,02429,333,59924,031,02321,186,78014,011,82210,782,30910,011,7598,789,4337,094,7361,208,720
BCG DTP & combinations Hepatitis B & combinations Haemophilus influenzae & combinations Measles containing vaccines Polio Pneumococcal Rotavirus
Vaccines considered
Market in USD, million Halal vaccines market in selected countries: USD ≈ 1,144 M
27• Sources: Smart Pharma Consulting analyses
• The two countries (Turkey & Saudi Arabia) showing the highest pharmaceutical expenditures count for almost half of the selected halal vaccines market in 2030
Market sales potential by 2030
Halal vaccines market in the top 20 Muslim countries – 2020 / 2030
2020 20300
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,400,000,000
20,999,178
270,405,464
28,997,565
372,683,343
45,816,496
500,533,789
High pharmaceutical expendituresMiddle pharmaceutical expendituresLow pharmaceutical expenditures
USD 1 144 m
USD 96 M
Market in USD m
28• Sources: Smart Pharma Consulting analyses
• The extrapolated halal vaccines market could reach USD 188 m in 2020 and USD 2.2 B in 2030
Market sales potential by 2030
Extrapolated halal vaccines market – 2020 / 2030
Considering that the top 20 countries analyzed account for 82% of the Muslims, the halal market among the total Muslim population is estimated to be worth:
Considering that the analyzed vaccines account for 62% of the total vaccines market, the total halal vaccines market is worth:
2020 2030
2020 2030
USD 188 m USD 2 249 m
USD 116 m USD 1 395 m
Market in USD m
2020 20300
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
188,460,342
2,249,454,360
29• Source: Smart Pharma Consulting
• There is a huge opportunity as the halal vaccines market could reach 2.2 B in 2030 but they would face several hurdles
Conclusion
Key Learning & Recommendations
There is an opportunity to develop halal vaccines as the Muslim population is increasing and so is the demand for halal pharmaceuticals, including vaccines
Both authorities and NGOs are working to deliver universal access to immunization and the halal vaccine could touch population that are under vaccinated or not vaccinated
In 2030, the Halal market could reach approximately USD 2.2 billion, representing a niche on the global preventive vaccines market (approximately 3%) estimated at USD 84 billion
30
Conclusion• There is a huge opportunity as the halal vaccines market could reach 2.2 B in 2030 but they would
face several hurdlesKey Learning & Recommendations
Nevertheless, there would be several hurdles:
– In terms of regulations and certifications complexity
– Due to the long cycle development (10-15 years)
– Due to production and distribution constraints
– And high associated costs (investment required to launch a new vaccine is approximately USD 700 million)