1SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 1
Operations Research : Operations Research :
An OverviewAn Overview
Wong Siew KwanResearch & Strategic Studies Branch
STRIDE July 2009
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Scope
STRIDE – Organisation BriefingSTRIDE – Organisation Briefing
OR in STRIDEOR in STRIDE
History of OR History of OR
Some DefinitionsSome Definitions
Examples of OR applicationExamples of OR application
Methodology in OR AnalysisMethodology in OR Analysis
Success of a Military OR StudySuccess of a Military OR Study
Some OR Tools and TechniquesSome OR Tools and Techniques
Asia-Pacific Military Operations ResearchAsia-Pacific Military Operations Research
Symposium (AMORS)Symposium (AMORS)
July 2009
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Tentative Programme
1100 – 1225Organisation Briefing, OR in STRIDE, History of OR, Some Definitions, Examples of OR Application
Break : 1225 - 1235
1235 – 1400Methodology in OR, Success in Military OR Study, Some Tools & Techniques, AMORS
July 2009
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Historical Development of STRIDE
1968 Defence Technical Centre (DTC)
1972 Defence Research Centre (DRC)
- Commissioning of Main Laboratories in Kuala Lumpur
1985 Defence Science & Technology Centre (DSTC or PSTP)
- Establishment of Maritime Branch in TLDM Base, Lumut
1993 - Commissioning of Weapons Complex in Batu Arang (officially opened in 1995)
2002 Establishment of STRIDE as a Department under Ministry of Defence
- Launch of Construction of Main Complex in Kajang
2004 Starting operation at Kompleks Induk STRIDE, Kajang
2005 13 September – Launch of Kompleks Induk STRIDE by DPM
July 2009
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STRIDE Corporate Statements
MissionMission
““ To nurture, develop and To nurture, develop and provide complete scientific provide complete scientific and technological capability and technological capability and expertise to the nationand expertise to the nation’’s s
defence sectordefence sector””
VisionVision
““To Excel in Defence To Excel in Defence TechnologyTechnology””
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STRIDE Core Values
SServing the client through
TTeamwork with
RResourcefulness,
IIntegrity and
DDiligence to achieve
EExcellence
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STRIDE’s Objectives
Provide science and technology information and advice in Provide science and technology information and advice in planning and execution of the national defence programmeplanning and execution of the national defence programme
Conduct scientific and technological support through R&D and Conduct scientific and technological support through R&D and evaluations in procurement and utilization of the nation’s defence evaluations in procurement and utilization of the nation’s defence materiel and systemsmateriel and systems
Prepare scientific and technological resources relevant to national Prepare scientific and technological resources relevant to national defence requirementsdefence requirements
Develop industrial relations with the intention of providing Develop industrial relations with the intention of providing scientific and technological assistance towards the development of scientific and technological assistance towards the development of a defence industrya defence industry
Develop technical links with external research organizations for Develop technical links with external research organizations for purposes of increasing defence scientific and technological purposes of increasing defence scientific and technological capabilitiescapabilities
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DIRECTOR GENERALDIRECTOR GENERALDIRECTOR GENERALDIRECTOR GENERAL
DIRECTOR DIRECTOR WEAPONS WEAPONS
TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY
DIRECTOR DIRECTOR MECHANICAL & MECHANICAL &
AEROSPACE AEROSPACE TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY
DIRECTOR DIRECTOR PROTECTION & PROTECTION & BIOLOGYCAL BIOLOGYCAL TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY
DIRECTOR DIRECTOR INSTRUMENTATION INSTRUMENTATION
& ELECTRONICS & ELECTRONICS TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY
DIRECTOR DIRECTOR MARITIME MARITIME
TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY
DIRECTOR DIRECTOR HUMAN RESOURCE & HUMAN RESOURCE & SUPPORT SERVICESSUPPORT SERVICES
Ordnance
Propulsion
Weapons
Ballistics
Weapons Technology
Support
Aeronautical
Automotive
Materials Technology
Mechanical & Structures
Engineering Support
Nutrition & Rations
Protection
Human Factors
Personnel Equipment
Science & Technology
Support
Communications
Radar & Laser
Sensors
Electronics Warfare
Instrumentations & Electronics
Support
Ship Technology
Underwater Technology
Maritime Weapons
Maritime Warfare
Maritime Support
Research & Strategic Studies
Information Management
Financial & Support Services
Human Resources Management
Organisation Structure
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Technical Activities
Approach Methodology
Novel
Conventional
Expertise
Average High
RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT
INVESTIGATION
TRIALS & ANALYSIS
TECHNICAL EVAL. & SPEC.
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STRIDE’s Involvement in Acquisition
SPECIFICATION
PRE-TENDER
TENDER
EQUIPMENT DELIVERY
FIELD DEPLOYMENT END OF LIFE
Technical Examination, Standards
Operations Research, Trials
Trials & Evaluations
Pre-Delivery Inspection
Modifications, Investigations, Life-Extension Assessment, R&D
STRIDESTRIDE
Needs, Operations Research, Technology Assessment
CONCEPT
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STRIDE’s Research Infrastructure
July 2009
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STRIDE’s New Research Infrastructure
ADMINISTRATION BLOCK
INSTRUMENTATION & ELECTRONICS TECHNOLOGY LABORATORY
MECHANICAL & AEROSPACE TECHNOLOGY LABORATORY
TECHNOLOGY SUPPORT LABORATORY
PROTECTION & BIOPHYSICAL TECHNOLOGY LABORATORY
July 2009
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Main Complex & Temporary Office
July 2009
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OR in STRIDE
Research and Strategic Studies Branch Formed in 2002 Strength in 2009
Position At present Study leave Total
Senior Officers 3 - 3
Officers 3 1
(PhD)
4
Assistant Officers 4 - 4
Total 10 1 11
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MISSION
To provide and consolidate effective decision support for strategic planning, operations research and systems effectiveness for MAF and Ministry of Defence
FUNCTIONS
To conduct strategic studies for Ministry of Defence and defence science and technology planning
To identify new concepts, analyse capability options, identify capability gaps and analyse
options to fill the gaps
To conduct quantitative analysis and construct simulation for model development To support defence acquisition and ‘Through Life Support’ in source selection studies
through cost analysis and cost effectiveness
To conduct operations research on force structuring, doctrine development, manpower and logistics planning
To support and advise in development, implementation and analysis of defence R&D projects
Research & Strategic Studies Branch
July 2009
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OR Activities in STRIDE
Conduct research studies/projects - LCC project for Handalan Truck
- AHP for defence acquisition Assist in R&D projects
- Anthropometric Survey Other activities - development of OR Laboratory for Modeling,
Simulation & Analysis (Decision Support Centre)- provide support for LCC / ILS training (BLP
MATM) and also Staff College
July 2009
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Other Technical Activities
Screening and endorsement of procurement specifications
Research & Development (R & D) Management
Offset and Transfer of Technology Programmes
Bilateral Cooperation in Defence Science & Technology
Malaysian Defence Cooperation Programme (MDCP)
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Some Terminology
Operations Research Operational Research Operational Analysis Management Science Decision Science Operations Management
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History of OR
Although scientists had been involved in the hardware side of warfare (designing better plane, bombs, tanks etc.), scientific analysis of the operational use of military resources had never taken place in a systematic fashion before the WW II. Military personnel were simply not trained to undertake such analysis.
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History of OR
OR started just before WW II in Britain with the establishments of teams of scientists to study the strategic and tactical problems involved in military operations. The objective was to find the most effective utilisation of limited military resources by the use of quantitative techniques.
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History of OR
In 1941, Prof. Blackett and his team
(1 physicist, 2 physiologists, 2 mathematical physicists and 1 surveyor) were asked by the British Government to advise on technical problems arising out of induction of new weapons and equipment.
Classical example - Depth setting for depth charge explosion to be dropped by aircraft against surfaced German submarines (U-boat).
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History of OR
Initially the attacks based on explosion at a depth of 150 ft. were judged to be unsuccessful as not many submarines were reported sunk.
Using available data and simple analysis,
the depth setting was reduced from 150 ft. to 25 ft.
The average no. of submarines sunk for a given no. of attacks has increased by more than two times.
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History of OR
After the war, OR introduced into industry
- Solve problems related to how to coordinate activities of organisation.
- Applied to a wide range of industries: manufacturing, transportation, finance, construction, telecommunication, health care, etc.
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History of OR
Manufacturers used OR to make products more efficiently, schedule equipment maintenance and control inventory and distribution. And success in these areas led to expansion into strategic and financial planning.
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History of OR
The growth of OR since it began, especially in the last 30 years, is to a large extent, the result of the increasing power and widespread availability of computers. Most OR involves carrying out a large number of numeric calculations. Without computers, this would simply not be possible.
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What is OR?
“The science of better”
“The use of mathematical models, statistics and algorithms to aid in decision-making with the goal of improving or optimizing performance.”
“Research designed to determine the most efficient way to do something.”
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What is OR?
“The application of scientific methods to improve the effectiveness of operations, decisions and management.”
“The discipline of applying advanced analytical methods to help make better decisions”
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What is OR?
Operations Research (OR) is the field of how to form mathematical models of complex management decisions problems and how to analyse the models to gain insight about possible solutions.
- Institute of OR and MS (INFORMS)
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What is Military OR?
Deals with operations different from those arising in economic & social activities (civil operations).
In civil sector, unusual for aircraft to fly at speed > 3 Mach and altitude of > 75,000 ft. , or a nuclear powered submarine carrying nuclear missiles lying below frozen ice, or air-to-air refueling, or aircraft taking-off from ships in open seas.
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What is Military OR?
Wars occurs rarely and has large uncertainties and complexities.
Analysis and planning of military operations more complicated and difficult than civilian operations.
Availability and reliability of war data pose another problem in analyzing.
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What is Military OR?
Objectives expressed in terms of casualties of men & material, loss of territory and mission achievement.
Effectiveness not measured in terms of cost (normal criteria in civil operations).
Application of OR to military sector poses unique modeling problems and raises issues pertaining to establishing relevant measures of effectiveness.
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What is Military OR?
Military OR may be defined as “a scientific method of providing
defence departments with a quantitative basis for decisions regarding the operations under their control”.
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Example – OR application
Trim Loss Problem: A company has to
manufacture the circular tops of cans. Two sizes,
one of diameter 10 cm and the other of 20 cm are
required. They are to be cut from metal sheets of
dimensions 20 cm X 50 cm.
The requirement of smaller size (size S) is 20,000
and of large size (size L) is 15,000. The problem is:
how to cut the tops from the metal sheets so that
the number of sheets used is a minimum.
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A sheet can be cut into one of the following three patterns:
Pattern I
Pattern II
Pattern III
10
20
20
10
10
10
2010
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Example – OR application
Pattern I : cut into 10 pieces of size 10 cm x 10 cm
so as to make 10 tops of size S.
Pattern II : cut into 2 pieces of size 20 cm x 20 cm
and 2 pieces of size 10 cm x 10 cm so as to make
2 tops of size L and 2 tops of size S.
Pattern III : cut into 1 pieces of size 20 cm x 20 cm
and 6 pieces of size 10 cm x 10 cm so as to make
1 top of size L and 6 tops of size S.
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Example – OR application
So assume that x1 sheets are cut according
to pattern I, x2 according to pattern II,
x3 according to pattern III.
The problem is to:
Minimize z = x1 + x2 + x3
Subject to 10 x1 + 2 x2 + 6 x3 ≥ 20,000 (size S)
2 x2 + x3 ≥ 15,000 (size L)
x1, x2, x3 ≥ 0, integers
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objective function
constraints
decisionvariables
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Discussion – Trim Loss problem
- A decision problem.
- Formulate a mathematical model from a real-world situation.
- Some quantitative method (an algorithm) to numerically solve the model.
- Model has an objective, i.e. to optimize.
- Having obtained numerically solution of model, have to translate solution back into real-world situation.
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The Operation Desert Storm Airlift
The problem:
- In 1991, the Military Air Command (MAC)
was charged with scheduling aircraft, crew, and
mission support resources to maximize the
on-time delivery of cargo and passengers to the
Persian Gulf.
- A typical airlift mission carrying troops and
cargo to the Gulf required a three-day round trip,
visiting 7 or more different airfields, burned almost
1 million pounds of fuel and cost $ 280,000.
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The Operation Desert Storm Airlift
Objectives and requirements:
- Create a scheduling system for aircraft
- Create a communication system coordinating the schedule among bases in the US and other countries.
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The Operation Desert Storm Airlift
The OR solution
- MAC worked with the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to develop the Airlift Deployment Analysis System (ADANS).
- Within 3 months, ADANS provided a set of decision support tools to manage:
- Information on cargo and passengers
- Information on available resources
- ADANS also developed tools for:
- Scheduling missions
- Analysing the schedule
- Distributing the schedule to MAC worldwide C & C system
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The Operation Desert Storm Airlift
The value:
- By August 1991, more than 25,000 missions had moved nearly 1 million passengers (including 350,000 troops) and 800,000 tons of cargo to and from the Persian Gulf.
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Methodology of OR
1. Problem identification
2. Formulation as a mathematical model
3. Data Collection & Model solution – develop computer based procedure for deriving solutions from the model
4. Model validation – test the model
5. Evaluation and implementation
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Methodology of OR
Model – a simplified representation of real
world situation.
Types of models:
- physical model (e.g. wind tunnel model)
- graphical model (e.g. map or flow chart)
- symbolic model (e.g. equations or mathematical model – linear / non linearprogramming)
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Methodology of OR
Model solution
Real world problem
Model
Real world solution
Algorithm
FormulationValidation
Implementation
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Methodology of OR
1. Problem identification
- OR analyst holds discussion with the management to understand and appreciate the problem to be solved, identifies the objectives and generates the alternatives.
- also selects variables affecting problem, constraints imposed and determine measure of effectiveness.
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Methodology of OR
2. Model Formulation
- model is an imitation of real situation.
- in OR analysis, ‘symbolic’ models are used which are in the form of mathematical equations and represent relationships between various ‘uncontrollable’ and ‘controllable’ variables. Aims at determining values of controllable variables so as to optimize measure of effectiveness.
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Methodology of OR
3. Model solution
- once model has been formulated, relevant data are collected and the model is solved using some standard computer packages, or specially developed algorithms.
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Methodology of OR
4. Model validation
- a model is a representation of real situation and model solution is expected to closely predict the behavior of real system. May like to know closeness of prediction.
- process of testing / improving model.
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Methodology of OR
5. Evaluation & implementation
- once the model has been validated, the available alternatives are evaluated by determining their measure of effectiveness.
- then recommend the preferred alternatives in order of their suitability for meeting the defined goal.
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Success of Military OR Study
Some factors should be kept in view while
organizing a military OR study:
(i) Composition of the Team
(ii) Data Availability
(iii) Mutual Understanding between Analyst
and Decision Maker
(iv) Duration of the OR Study
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Success of Military OR Study
(i) Composition of the Team
OR analysis requires a team of analysts from
different disciplines. Military officers from
concerned service should be associated with
the team to assist in problem formulation, data
collection, and model validation.
Also specialist with OR background and
software development experience are essential.
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Success of Military OR Study
(ii) Data Availability
Military OR studies suffer due to non-availability
of required data. This affects model development
and validation. Military data, particularly from the
operations, are either not available or are
confidential, and may not be reliable.
Need to ensure availability and reliability of
required data.
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Success of Military OR Study
(iii) Mutual Understanding between Analyst
and Decision Maker
Enhancing mutual understanding between
analyst and decision maker is vital for
implementation of an OR study.
Develop communication plans to maintain
awareness of study progress and decision
maker are kept informed.
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Success of Military OR Study
(iv) Duration of the OR Study
Military OR studies are time bound and
complex. The pressure from decision maker
on an OR analyst seems to be much more in
military sector than in other sectors.
Ensure timely responses to sponsors and
decision makers.
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Some Tools and Techniques
1. Optimization
2. Simulation and War Games
3. Cost Effectiveness Analysis
4. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
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Optimization
The Resources allocation problems:
Weapon deployment problem
– to determine the no. of defence system to be deployed at each site to provide maximum overall protection against enemy attack, subject to constraints.
Airlift problem
- to determine the plan to airlift supplies to meet the logistics requirements in the forward areas subject to constraints on availability of aircraft, demand and environmental conditions.
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Optimization
The Transportation problem:
- the objective is to identify how much material should be transported from each depot to each destination such that the cost of transportation is minimized.
The Assignment problem:
- The objective is to assign the jobs to various workers such that the total cost of execution of tasks is minimum.
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Optimization
Linear Programming
- a technique applied in solving optimization problems in which the objective function and the constraints are linear functions.
- oldest OR tool, versatile
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Simulation & War Games
Simulation is imitation of the operations of a real
world process or system over time. Requires a
large amount of data and the use of probability
and statistics.
OR and simulation modeling have been used by
management for decision-making in various
areas including military applications, supply
chain management, manufacturing, forecasting
and human resource management.
.
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Simulation & War Games
Some simulation & war games packages:
- Simulation, Evaluation, Analysis and Research on Air Defence Systems (SEAROADS)
- Combat Sample Generator (COSAGE)
- Concepts Evaluation Model (CEM)
- Tactical Warfare Model (TACWAR)
- Small Unit Battle Simulation Model (SUBSIM)
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Simulation & War Games
Land War Games:
- Mechanized Force War Game (MFWG)
- Contingency Force Analysis War Game (CFAW)
Naval War Games:
- Research, Evaluation and System Analysis (RESA)
- MANTHAN
Air War Games:
- AGILE, SABRE
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Cost Effectiveness Analysis
Selection of equipment for acquisition from
available systems is an important issue
encountered by defence executive.
The selection of a weapon system depends on its
effectiveness and the cost.
The system which accomplishes the desired level
of effectiveness at lowest cost needs to be
identified from amongst the alternative systems.
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Cost Effectiveness Analysis
The effectiveness of a weapon system is a
quantitative measure of the level up to which the
system meets its objectives.
Effectiveness of an artillery gun system primarily
depends on its rate of fire, lethal radius and
accuracy.
To compare and evaluate alternative gun
systems, need to define a measure of
effectiveness.
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Cost Effectiveness Analysis
For system cost estimation, consider systems
which are to be developed and those which
already exist.
When new systems are developed, expenditure
occurs in R & D, investment, and operating and
support phases.
For existing systems, costing is done on basis of
procurement, maintenance and operating cost
over life cycle.
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Cost Effectiveness Analysis
Fixed Effectiveness Approach – effectiveness
level fixed, find alternative with least cost.
Fixed Budget Approach – budget is fixed, find
alternative with maximum effectiveness.
Figure of Merit Approach – find alternative with
the highest effectiveness/cost ratio.
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Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
A tool / technique for evaluating tenders
and contractors when more than one criterion
to consider while making decision.
E.g. weapons for acquisition have to be
evaluated on several criteria, e.g. suitability,
maintainability and cost.
- Multicriteria decision making problem
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Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
Tank performance:
Level 1- firepower, mobility, survivability
Level 2
Firepower - main gun, secondary armament,
munitions, FCS, night vision, auto loader
Mobility - P/W ratio, road range, max. speed,
fuel consumption, nominal ground pressure,
Survivability – built in armour, add on armour,
silhouette, laser warning, NBC protection
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Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
Data collection from the experts corresponding
to the hierarchy structure is undertaken.
Pair wise comparisons of various criteria and
sub-criteria / sub subcriteria are carried out,
and are organised into a square matrix.
Evaluation and decision then made based on
comparison results.
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Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
Selection of contractors:
Level 1- contract value, lead time, competence,
dependability
Level 2
Contract value – currency, terms of payment
Lead time – trial schedule, delivery schedule
Competence – technical, infrastructure
Dependability – variety of contract, performance
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OperationsResearch
Exercisecapability
Systems Life CycleIdentified deficiency
New Govt. policyS&T-related policy
Need for new/upgraded
capability
Introduce new/upgraded
capability
Revisetactics
OperationsResearch
OperationsResearch
PlanningTraining
STRATEGIC STUDIES
MILITARY OR
CA
PA
BIL
ITY
ST
UD
IES
Performance DatabaseValidation of Models
Exerciseassessment
New threat
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• Force Structure
• Evaluation of operations planning
• Doctrine development
• Manpower and logistic planning
• Force Structure
• Evaluation of operations planning
• Doctrine development
• Manpower and logistic planning
• Strategic planning for MOD and Defence S&T
• Capability and System Analysis
• Analysis of Alternatives
• Strategic planning for MOD and Defence S&T
• Capability and System Analysis
• Analysis of Alternatives
• Mathematical programming
• Spreadsheet modeling
• Constructive simulation for model development
• Mathematical programming
• Spreadsheet modeling
• Constructive simulation for model development
• Source selection studies - Cost analysis
- Cost effectiveness
• Systems development
• Source selection studies - Cost analysis
- Cost effectiveness
• Systems development
QUALITATIVE AND
QUANTITATIVE
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Asia-Pacific Military OR Symposium
Asia-Pacific Military Operations Research
Symposium (AMORS)
– a formal gathering aimed at those defence and
defence-related personnel who are active users
or managers of OR applications in the solutions
of military problems.
Purpose is to allow military OR / OA analysts
and users to share their military OR work and
promote professional interaction.
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Asia-Pacific Military OR Symposium
Current participating countries are as follows:
Australia Canada
India Indonesia
Japan Korea
Malaysia New Zealand
Pakistan Philippines
Singapore Thailand
U.S.A.
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Asia-Pacific Military OR Symposium
AMORS is an invitation only symposium. The
host country will send invitations to current
representative of each country who will then
solicit members of their country’s OR
organization for topics to present.
The theme of symposium will be chosen by the
host country. Recommendations for the next
symposium will be presented at the Executive
Meeting of the ongoing AMORS.
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Asia-Pacific Military OR Symposium
AMORS is a bi-annual activity and the duration
of symposium is typically 3 days: a two-day
conference proper and a one-day cultural tour.
The programme of the two-day conference
consists of three segments:
- Country Brief
- Presentation of military OR work
- Multilateral Executive Meeting
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Asia-Pacific Military OR Symposium
AMORS VIII, 2006 (6 – 8 June) was held in
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia and
the theme of symposium :
“Effective Defence Development Through OR”.
AMORS IX , 2008 (8 – 10 Sept) was held in
Sydney, Australia and the theme of symposium :
“OA / OR Support to Current Operations”.
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