One year on:Are we ready to make the UK the
best country to grow old in?
Thursday 13th March 2014
This event is kindly supported by members of the Ready for Ageing Alliance
#future2030
Lord Filkin CBE
ChairCentre for Ageing Better
ChairmanPublic Service and Demographic Change Committee
This event is kindly supported by members of the Ready for Ageing Alliance
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Julia Unwin CBE
Chief ExecutiveJoseph Rowntree Foundation
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Professor Phillip Rees CBE
Professor Emeritus, School of GeographyUniversity of Leeds
This event is kindly supported by members of the Ready for Ageing Alliance
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A Review of Trends in Life and Health Expectancies for the UK, with an International Comparison
Philip ReesSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UKE: [email protected]
Presentation at the International Longevity Centre/Independent Age Meeting at the House of Lords, Thursday 13th March 2014
Table: Trends and Projections of Period and Cohort Life Expectancy, 1982-2062Life table Gender Years Life Expectancies Annual Change (arithmetic)
1982 2012 2042 20621982-2012
2012-2042
2042-2062
Period MEN Age 0 71.1 79.0 84.7 87.3 0.26 0.19 0.13Age 65 13.0 18.3 22.8 24.9 0.18 0.15 0.11
WOMEN Age 0 77.0 82.7 87.9 90.3 0.19 0.17 0.12Age 65 17.0 20.7 25.2 27.2 0.12 0.15 0.10
Cohort MEN Age 0 85.1 90.6 95.1 98.0 0.18 0.15 0.15Age 65 14.2 21.2 24.7 27.0 0.23 0.12 0.12
WOMEN Age 0 89.2 93.9 98.0 100.7 0.16 0.14 0.14Age 65 18.0 23.9 27.2 29.5 0.20 0.11 0.12
Gaps PERIOD Age 0 5.9 3.7 3.2 3.0 -0.07 -0.02 -0.01Age 65 4.0 2.4 2.4 2.3 -0.05 0.00 0.00
COHORT Age 0 4.1 3.3 2.9 2.7 -0.03 -0.01 -0.01Age 65 3.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 -0.04 -0.01 0.00
Source: ONS (2013) National Population Projections, 2012 BasedPrincipal projection, Mortality assumptions
Trends in life expectancy, past and future, UK
• There is a rapid increase in LEs in the past 2 decades, slows down in the next 50 years
• Men have caught up with women over the past 2 decades, but this catch up will not continue much further in the next 5 decades
• The cohort LEs are better indicators for individuals and social policies but they depend on projections of age-specific mortality
The projected life expectancies are uncertain and so therefore are the projected numbers of older people
How many UK centenarians will there be in 2113?ONS say the number of 2013 babies surviving
to 2113 could be as low as 47k and as high as 530k, based on the lowest and highest life expectancy variants
Rees 2013 said that the 95% confidence interval based on a set of 19 projections of the UK’s population for 100 year olds in 2050 was 59k to 367k
Keilman 2013 said that this confidence interval was too conservative and likely to be ~0k to ~720k, based on a 1,000 simulations using the Uncertain Population of Europe methodology
Table: Time Series of Life and Health Expectancies, Great Britain, 1981-2011 Age, sex Indicator 1981 1991 2001 2000-02 2008-10At birthMen Life Expectancy 70.9 73.2 75.7 75.7 78.1 Notes:
GH3-HE 64.4 66.1 67.0 66.8 IndicatorsGH5-HE 60.4 63.9 GH3-HE = General Health 3 Category Health ExpectancyYNGH (GH3) 6.5 7.1 8.7 8.9 3 Categories = "Good", "Fair", "Poor"YNGH (GH5) 15.3 14.2LLI-HE 58.1 59.1 60.5 60.4 64.4 GH3 Good Health = "Good" and "Fair"YWD 12.8 14.1 15.2 15.3 13.7 GH5-HE = General Health 5 Category Health Expectancy
Women Life Expectancy 76.8 78.7 80.4 80.4 82.1 5 Categories = "Very good", "Good", "Fair", "Bad", "Very Bad"GH3-HE 66.7 68.6 68.8 69.9 GH5-HE Good Health = "Very Good" and "Good"GH5-HE 62.4 66.1YNGH (GH3) 10.1 10.1 11.6 10.5 LLI-HE = Long standing Illness Health ExpectancyYNGH (GH5) 18.0 16.0LLI-HE 60.8 61.6 62.7 62.9 65.4 YNGH= Expected Year Not in Good HealthYWD 16.0 17.1 17.7 17.5 16.7 YWD = Expected Years With Illness, Disability or Infirmity
At age 65Men Life Expectancy 13.0 14.2 15.9 16.0 17.9 Source: Offi ce for National Statistics
GH3-HE 9.9 10.8 11.6 11.9 Health Expectancy StatisticsGH5-HE 9.4 10.2YNGH (GH3) 3.1 3.4 4.3 4.1YNGH (GH5) 6.6 7.7LLI-HE 7.6 7.9 8.8 8.8 10.5YWD
Women Life Expectancy 16.9 17.9 19.0 19.0 20.5GH3-HE 11.9 13.0 13.2 14.0GH5-HE 10.8 11.7YNGH (GH3) 5.0 4.9 5.8 5.0YNGH (GH5) 8.2 8.8LLI-HE 8.5 9.3 10.1 10.3 11.3YWD
1981 to 2001: HEs increase more slowly than LEs2000-02 to 2008-10: HEs increase faster than LEs, at birth
Trends in life and health expectancies and years not spent in good health
Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study Results for the UKSource: Salomon et al. (2012) Healthy life expectancy for 187 countries, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden Disease Study 2010, Lancet 2012; 380: 2144–62
Sex, indicator 1990 2010 Change
MEN
Life Expectancy 72.9 77.8 +4.9
Healthy Expectancy 62.8 65.7 +2.9
Years without Good Health
10.1 12.1 +2.0
WOMEN
Life Expectancy 78.3 81.9 +3.6
Healthy Expectancy 65.9 67.9 +2.0
Years without Good Health
12.4 14.0 +1.6
GBD2010 estimates for health prevalence rates uses disease incidence data rather than survey data on self-reported health
The GBD2010 results show continuing morbidity expansion but misses detailed changes that could have occurred in the 2000s compared with the 1990s
Figure 1: Age-specific mortality in the UKRanks among 15 EU members + 4 Others (AU,CA,US,NO)B: Men, C: WomenSource:Murray et al. (2013) UK health performance: findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, Lancet, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(13)60355-4
The UK ranks worsen up to ages 50-54. UK ranks poorly in the older ages but ranks for men have improved for ages 65-69 and 70-74
How does the UK compare?
Source:Rees et al 2013 The Implications of Ageing and Migrationfor the Future Population, Health, LabourForce and Households of Northern England,Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy,DOI 10.1007/s12061-013-9086-7
What if favourable trends for 2000-2010 continued?
Study Matthews et al. A two-decade comparison of prevalence of dementia in individuals aged 65 years and older from three geographical areas of England: results of the Cognitive Function and Ageing Study I and II, Lancet 2013: 832: 1405-12, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61570-6Interpretation This study provides further evidence that a cohort effect exists in dementia prevalence. Later-born populations have a lower risk of prevalent dementia than those born earlier in the past century.
Study Christensen et al. Physical and cognitive functioning of people older than 90 years: a comparison of two Danish cohorts born 10 years apart Lancet 2013; 382: 1507–13http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(13)60777-1Interpretation Despite being 2 years older at assessment, the 1915 cohort scored significantly better than the 1905 cohort on both the cognitive tests and the activities of daily living score, which suggests that more people are living to older ages with better overall functioning.
Two recent studies show lower dementia prevalence for British and Danish cohorts
Steve Connor,“Moderate but regular exercise can boost the size of the parts of the brain that shrink with age, according to scientists who believe that light physical activity is one of the best ways of preventing senile dementia.”The Independent, 17 February 2014
Confidence in very old age support ratios (Pop aged 50-64/Pop aged 85+)
YearMedian
projection
Percentile 97.5
Percentile 2.5
95% Percentile Interval
PI as % Median
2010 8.32 8.22 8.59 0.37 4
2020 7.89 6.07 7.60 1.53 19
2030 5.65 4.57 5.78 1.21 22
2040 3.64 3.48 4.28 0.80 22
2050 3.11 2.66 3.68 1.02 33
Source: The Independent, 17 February, 2014
Andrew Kaye
Head of Policy and CampaignsIndependent Age
This event is kindly supported by members of the Ready for Ageing Alliance
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Rt Hon Paul Burstow MP
Member for Sutton and Cheam
This event is kindly supported by members of the Ready for Ageing Alliance
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One year on:Are we ready to make the UK the
best country to grow old in?
Thursday 13th March 2014
This event is kindly supported by members of the Ready for Ageing Alliance
#future2030
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