Ecological and Social Resilience to Climate VariabilityThe case of the bourgou floodplain vegetation (Echinochloa stagnina) of the Inland Niger Delta in Central Mali
Hannah FriedrichAdvisor: Matthew Turner
June 22, 2016
Hannah FriedrichAdvisor: Dr. Matthew Turner
People to Pixel
Inland Niger Delta in Central MaliPhoto Credit: MODIS Rapid Response Team
Source: NOAA NCDC
Photo Credit: Matthew Turner
Photo Credit: Matthew Turner
Conservation Actors
Fulani Pastoralists
Bozo FishermanNGOs
BourgouRegeneration
Research Questions
1) To what extent has the bourgou floodplain recovered since the extreme drought events in the 1980’s?
2.) What impact do human land uses have on this recovery?
Objectives
> Create seasonal change maps of vegetation and water
> Analyze EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) of yearly imagery
> Identify significant bourgou regeneration
> Link vegetation regeneration to human land use decisions
Significance
> Hydrologically complex ecosystem home to many species
> Bourgou is a “commons” - shared amongst communities
> Conservation has potential played a role, but to what extent?
> Future conservation efforts
Study Area
Seasonal Change Detection Maps
Dry Season Image
Wet SeasonImage
Acca Hydrology Station
Support Vector MachineChange Detection
Class SchemeStable Bare Ground
Stable WaterStable VegetationVegetated to Bare
GroundFloodplain to Flooded
Water to Vegetated
Stable Bare Ground
Stable Vegetation
Stable Water
Water to Vegetated
Vegetated to Bare Ground
Floodplain to Flooded
Dry to Wet Season Change Map
Stable Water Stable Bare Ground
Stable Vegetation
Vegetated to Bare Ground
Water to Vegetation
Floodplain to Flooded Total
Stable Water 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stable Bare
Ground0 80.36% (45) 0 0 0 33.33%
(7)65.82%
(52)
Stable Vegetat
ion0 0
100%(1) 0 0 0 1.27%
(1)
Vegetated to Bare
Ground
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Water to
Vegetation
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Floodplain to
Flooded0 19.64% (11) 0 100%
(1) 0 66.67%(14)
32.91%(26)
Total 0 100%(56)
100%(1)
100%(1) 0 100%
(21)100%(79)
Overall Accuracy =
75.9494%
EVI Analysis
Analyze yearly EVI imagery
Google Earth Engine
1984
2015
Significant EVI Increase
Increase in EVI
Ongoing Research - Dense time stack EVI analysis
Scenario 1:EVI < Z in Year X-1 and EVI > Z in Year X
Scenario 2:EVI < Z in Year X-1 and Year X-2 and EVI > Z in Year X
Scenario 3:EVI < Z in Year X-1 and Year X-2 followed by EVI > Y in Year X
Limitations
> Missing data in the 1990’s
> Vegetation diversity - bourgou as an individual species is difficult to pin-point
Ongoing Research - Multi-sited village surveys, individual interviews,
bourgou site regeneration interviews
Where has bourgou re-established?
> Technique used
> Over what time period?
> Who is involved?
> Resources available to those involved?
Describe NGO involvement.
Ongoing Research - In situ ground surveys
Youvarou - Case Study
Conservation in Youvarou
> Managed by herder cooperatives
> Transplanting most effective method of regeneration
> Mixed responses of development organization involvement
> On the ground, regeneration seen as successful
Conclusion - People to Pixel
> Synthesize interview data with regeneration trends - multivariate statistics
> Link EVI data with history of land use change - track conservation using RS
Thank you! Questions?