A GLOBAL OVERVIEW: Is there enough land for
food, fibre and fuel?
Sten Nilsson
200th Anniversary of The Royal Academy of Agriculture and Forestry
Stockholm, 29-30 January 2013
CHANGING MIDDLE CLASS – ADDITIONALLY
3 BILLION IN 2030
FOOD CONSUMPTION
GLOBAL LIVESTOCK
Today: 60 billion – 2050: 100 billion
Source: State of the World, 2012; and USAgriTech, Inc., 2008.
ENERGY CONSUMPTION – 2010-2040 + 30%
Source: Ray, C. Blog: Real Firewood Stacking (11 Dec 2012); and ExxonMobil – 2012 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
VOLUMES OF NEW BIO-BASED PRODUCTS ?
WATER BALANCE 2030 in km3
Source: RatesToGo 2007-2011; and Charting Our Water Future, The Water Resources Group, 2010.
HUMAN INFRASTRUCTURE
Source: Seto, KC et al, PNAS 109 (40) 16083-16088, 2 October 2012.
Additional land requirements by 2030:
120 million ha = area of South Africa
NATURE INFRASTRUCTURE – ECOLOGICAL
FOOTPRINT 2050 = 2.5 WORLDS
Source: McGlade, J., European Environment Agency, 2011.
• Finding new sources of supply of natural resources is becoming increasingly challenging and expensive
• Resources are increasingly linked. Changes in one resource impacts others
• Environmental factors increasingly constrain the utilization
• Increasing societal concerns over the utilization of the natural resources
• Meeting future demands will require a large expansion of supply
THE RESOURCE CHALLENGE
TOTAL LAND…
Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO
Note: The map indicates the share of each
grid-cell that is available for use
Not present
< 10%
10% - 30%
30% - 50%
50% - 70%
70% - 90%
> 90%
Water
…subtracting built-up areas
Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO
Note: The map indicates the share of each
grid-cell that is available for use
Not present
< 10%
10% - 30%
30% - 50%
50% - 70%
70% - 90%
> 90%
Water
…subtracting cultivated land
Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO
Note: The map indicates the share of each
grid-cell that is available for use
Not present
< 10%
10% - 30%
30% - 50%
50% - 70%
70% - 90%
> 90%
Water
…subtracting forest areas
Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO
Note: The map indicates the share of each
grid-cell that is available for use
Not present
< 10%
10% - 30%
30% - 50%
50% - 70%
70% - 90%
> 90%
Water
…excluding non-vegetated areas
Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO
Note: The map indicates the share of each
grid-cell that is available for use
Not present
< 10%
10% - 30%
30% - 50%
50% - 70%
70% - 90%
> 90%
Water
…excluding protected areas
Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO
Note: The map indicates the share of each
grid-cell that is available for use
Undefined
< 10%
10% - 30%
30% - 50%
50% - 70%
70% - 90%
> 90%
Water
Protected
…subtracting land with steep slopes
Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO
Note: The map indicates the share of each
grid-cell that is available for use
Undefined
< 10%
10% - 30%
30% - 50%
50% - 70%
70% - 90%
> 90%
Water
Protected
…excluding climatically unsuit-able
or very marginal areas
Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO
Note: The map indicates the share of each
grid-cell that is available for use
Undefined
< 10%
10% - 30%
30% - 50%
50% - 70%
70% - 90%
> 90%
Water
Protected
Unproductive
Very marginal
2.1 billion ha left – Grasslands
Sources: IIASA,LUC (2007) and Pic: http://nrelscience.org/2012/02/19/are-all-grasslands-created-equal-predicting-grassland-
dynamics-in-china-based-on-us-grassland-models/
Density of ruminant livestock (cattle equiv./ha) – 700 mha available
Intensity of grass/scrub/wood land (%)
So
urc
e: G
AE
Z 2
00
7, II
AS
A-L
UC
/FA
O a
nd
FA
O,
20
05
.
WHERE DOES LAND COME FROM IN 2030?
HOW TO BALANCE THE DEMAND?
Availability
250-300 million ha
Biochemical
Industry
?
Agriculture Demand
200 million ha
Industrial Forestry
25 million ha
Bioenergy
290 million ha
Source: Nilsson (2007)
Deficit:
220-250 million ha
Lambin and Meyfroidt,
2011
Deficit: 0-435 million ha in 2030
based on unused land and additional
land needed.
With accumulated deforestation of
150-300 million ha in total, the land
deficit will be 0-285 million ha
IIASA and WWF, 2011
Business as usual, accumulated
deforestation by 2050 of 230 million
ha (no deficit of agricultural land)
McKinsey Global
Institute, 2011
Deficit of 175-220 million ha of
cropland in 2030 to cover food, feed,
and fuel demands (productivity
increase in agriculture: 1% per year)
LAND BALANCES
• We know nothing
Uncertainty in data sets greater than 50%
• We CAN fix it ‘We just have to do the right things in the right place’ is another argument.
Will we do it? Probably not…
• ‘There is a huge land use problem (200-300 mha deficit)
‘There is no unused land in reality’ (Persson 2007)
WHAT DOES ALL THIS TELL US?
LARGE SCALE LAND USE CONFLICTS
ALREADY EXIST
Number of hectares (millions) cross-referenced: ~70 million ha
Number of hectares (millions) reported: ~ 200 million ha
INTERNATIONAL LAND GRABBING
SINCE 2000
Source: Adapted from: Khare, A. Large-Scale Land Acquisitions – An International Overview, Rights + Resources Institute,
18 Dec. 2012.
Oxfam (2012): 230 million ha
30% is forest land
DOMESTIC LAND GRABBING – INDIA
Source: Adapted from: Khare, A. Land Acquisition and Related Disputes, Rights + Resources Institute, 18 Dec. 2012.
Additional land
requirements by 2030
(agrifuel, infrastructure,
extractive activities, non-
conventional energy):
11.5 million ha
corresponding to
4% of the total land area
AVERAGE AGRICULTURE LAND PRICES IN
US$ PER HA IN SAO PAULO STATE, BRAZIL
ha <7.26 7.26-24.2 24.2-72.6 72.6-242.0 242.0+
2006 6680 5580 4990 4280 3890
2012 12 260 10 080 8865 7880 7350
Source: Economic Agriculture Institute, Brazil, 2012.
Source: Kory Melby’s Brazilian Ag Consulting Services and Investment Tours, 1 Nov. 2012.
Average price relation 2012:
North: 100
Northeast: 266
Central Western: 300
Southeast: 564
South: 662
UNPLANTED URUGUAYAN FOREST
LAND PRICES
Source: Don Roberts, CIBC World Markets Inc., 2010
• Marginal cost of pulpwood in Uruguay at parity with marginal costs in the
Nordic countries
• Land prices in Uruguay have increased by 5x during last 10 years
• In 2000, good quality forest land with deep soil sold for US$ 500/ha, and
similar land with shallower soils now selling for US$ 2,500-3,000/ha
• 28 000 land transactions in Australia, 1992-2012; 6% real price increase/yr.
AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION IS OF
MAJOR CONCERN
Source: NATURE, Vol 466, 29 July 2010
GLOBAL CROP PRODUCTION: 1995-2005
Source: Science news, The Green Revolution is Wilting, 18 Dec. 2012.
WATER AND AGRICULTURE
• Today agriculture accounts for 70-75% of human freshwater consumption
• In 2030 a gap of 40% between demand and supply of freshwater is foreseen
• By 2030 farming will need 45% more freshwater compared to the consumption today
AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION 1988-2000
About 80 million ha forest grabbing
Source: Gibbs, HK et al, PNAS 107 (38) 16732-16737, 2010.
POTENTIALS FOR CHANGE
Source: Kwang-Il Tak, Kookmin University, Seoul, Korea
Forest restorations
in South Korea
FOREST LANDSCAPE RESTORATION
POTENTIAL (million hectares, excluding the boreal)
Higher probability Lower probability
Broad-scale Mosaic Irrigated croplands Rainfed croplands
Temperate 49 190 158 592
Humid Tropics 205 230 111 259
Dry Tropics 19 643 110 456
Total 272 1063 379 1306
Source: Lars Laestadius, World Resources Institute, and Peter Potapov , South Dakota State University, 2010
CROPLAND CONVERSION TO
PRODUCTIVE LAND
• There are 240-290 Mha accumulated of degraded croplands during the last 100 years which could be converted to productive cropland (Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2011)
• There are 300 Mha of agricultural land that could become more productive and sustainable through agro-forestry (IPFRI, 2006)
VERTICAL FARMING
Source: Nelson, B. Could vertical farming be the future? Frontiers on NBC News, 12 Dec. 2007.
IN-VITRO MEAT PRODUCTION No land, no farmers, no animals, no mucking
Source: Dagens Nyheter (Swedish newspaper) published on 30 Aug. 2011; http://www.dn.se/nyheter/vetenskap/odlat-
kott-kan-minska-miljoproblem
Source: Jan Wintzell, Pöyry, Sept. 2011
INDUSTRIAL WOOD DEMAND INCREASE TO
2030 IS SIZEABLE
2020
2030
Heat & Power
(primary solid
biomass)
3.0
3.25
Traditional solid
biomass
5.3
5.0
Coal replacement 1.5 2.95
Biofuels
0.9-1.25
1.25-1.75
DEMAND OF WOOD FOR ENERGY (Whiteman, A., 2011 – in billion m3 RWE)
EU Wood/biomass deficit 100-150 million m3/yr
RUSSIA Same harvest level as today, or lower
JAPAN Wood deficit: 50-60 million m3/yr
CHINA Wood deficit: 150-200 million m3/yr
OCEANIA + 40 million m3/yr of industrial wood
SE ASIA Deficit. 20 million m3/yr lower harvest
INDIA Wood deficit: 20-30 million m3/yr
AFRICA Wood deficit: 35 million m3/yr
LATIN
AMERICA
+ 190 million m3/yr of industrial wood; domestically
consumed
U.S.A ???
CANADA Reduced harvest by 50-70 million m3/yr of industrial
wood
2020
OPPORTUNITIES IN THE NORTH
• Dramatically changed future global landscapes
• Nordic countries (and the Boreal region) have, on average, more available land, forests, and water resources per capita than other regions.
• The Nordic nature production systems are more robust than in many other regions of the world
• Land resources in the Nordic countries (and the Boreal region) will become more and more valuable – if managed correctly.
• TODAY
• Short-term single-output thinking
• Businesses think in terms of market supply chains;
farmers and forest owners think in terms of their land;
governments think about environmental issues through
regulations and setting aside protected areas; financial
industries think about investments in sectors and
individual firms. Policies and planning are undertaken by
sector and are conflicting between sectors.
• Land use issues most often fall between agriculture,
forestry, environment, industry, and economic ministries
• Industry-based strategies and business models are
based on constant or falling real prices of resource inputs
THE WAY FORWARD – 1
THE WAY FORWARD – 2 TOMORROW
• Tackling the resource agenda must start with a shift of mind sets
and mechanisms among stake holders and institutions.
• New mind sets must reach across traditional sector boundaries
to deal with the interconnected problems and opportunities of
food-, forest-, energy-production, ecosystem services, water
supply, societal services, rural development, etc., and must
provide sources of synergy and broader economic policymaking.
• Integrated landscape approach applied as an organizing
framework.
• The conventional forest value chain which tells the story from
the forest to the consumer is obsolete – the relevant one is the
landscape value chain.
• The landscape approach is fundamental to meet future
natural resource demands.
LANDSCAPE APPROACH
Production of natural
values = stocks and
states; biodiversity,
climate, wildlife, water,
etc. over large scale
landscapes
Forest production =
flows; wood and money
created in individual
stands
Production of societal
values = stocks and
states created over
large scale landsapes
Productivity/Production Revolution Through Increased Synergy Effects
• The Royal Swedish Academy of Agriculture and Forestry has, for 200 years, been successful but has separated forestry and agriculture issues. It is time for an new structure which can stimulate a dialogue on a future integrated land use.
• The Life Sciences universities (in Sweden, SLU) are, through the boundaries set by the Faculties, efficiently hindering integrated land use thinking. Tear down the Faculties!
• Re-organize the relevant Ministries and their agencies into one Natural Resource Ministry with affiliated agencies!
WHERE TO BEGIN?
Thank you for your attention!
Sten B. Nilsson CEO, Forest Sector Insights AB
TT Banan 12, S-77 693 Hedemora, Sweden
Phone/Fax: +46 225 381 02 – Cell: +46 70 381 02 14
Email: [email protected]
and
Guest Scholar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria – www.iiasa.ac.at