Air Pollution and Carbon Sink
M. Obersteiner, V. Stolbovoi, S. Nilsson
IIASA - FOR
Ou
tpu
t
Carbon Management:Integrated Approach
Natural Natural
AttributesAttributes GIS CoveragesGIS Coverages
Climate & VegetationClimate & Vegetation
Relief & SoilsRelief & SoilsDatabasesDatabases
Water & MineralsWater & Minerals
DecreaseDecrease
Changes in Carbon sink
Changes in Carbon sink
IncreaseIncrease
Socio-economicSocio-economic
Land UseLand Use
People & InstitutionsPeople & Institutions
Imp
ac t
Air Pollution
LU
LU
CF
car
bon
cred
its
Carbon Sink (green) and Source (red) Regions
(analysis by 1x1 km grid)
Based on IPCC (2001) and Steffen et al. (1998)
GPP
120 Gt C yr-1
Atmospheric Pool
Geological Pool
Plant Respirati
on
60 Gt C yr -1
NPP60 Gt C yr-1
Decomposition
50 Gt C yr -1
NEP10 Gt C yr-1
Fossil Fuels
6 Gt C yr -1
Disturbance
9 Gt C yr -1
NBP±1 Gt C yr-1
Carbon Flux Inventory for Boreal Zone (Mt)
ForestsGrass &Shrubs
WetlandsSwamps&Bogs
Agriculture
--17071707
--321321
NPPNPP+138+138
66
HSHSRR
--575575
--12021202
NPPNPP+627+627
HSHSRR
+11+1188
-487-487NPPNPP
+605+605HSHSRR
--381381
-957-957NPPNPP
+576+576HSHSRR
+13+1388
Disturbances & HarvestHarvest
+68+6822
ConsumptiConsumptionon
121121
HumificationHumification
2020
LithosphereLithosphere
5959HydrospherHydrospheree
1212
HCO3
ASSIMILATIONCARBON
SINK
Rate
Duration
Sensitivity
Resilience
MAINTENANCEPro
cess
esP
rope
rtie
sIm
plic
atio
ns
STORAGE DEFENCE
Transport Conversion Mobilization
Respiration
Turnover
Level
Chemistry
Distribution
dir. Resiliance
Amount
Partitioning
Timing
Indirect Resilience
Reduced assimilate supply Increased suceptibility to biotic and abiotic stresses
Decreased Production
Altered Community Dynamics
Increasingly mechanistic
Increasingly integrative
Biochemical level Cellular level Whole plant level Species level Community level
GPPNBP
The Integrator- Growth of (woody) plants
• Shoots– Leaves– Cambium
• Roots and Rhizosphere Symbionts
• Reproductive growth
• Changes in the carbon partitioning pattern
Ecosystem response
• Structural and altered community dynamics• Higher Risks
– Biotic (insect, pests and diseases)– Abiotic
• Drought (also if cuticula or impaired stomatal closure is injured winter desiccation)
• Wind • Cold hardiness• Fire
Factors affecting responseHazard Vulnerability
Species and genotyp *
Pollutant dosage & frequency *
Types & combination *
Stress tolerance mex. *
Plant age *
Interact with diseases *
Environmental regime *
Vulnerability Management
• Earlier removal & Short rotation species• Less vulnerable species (less productive)• Fertilization• Mono height stands (decrease interceptive surface)• Calamity management (decreased stocking for fire
prevention)• ….
Risk managementdecrease carbon stock in forest AND its permanence,
digression in ecosystem value and higher costs
Management for Carbon Sinks
Catena Differentiation
Water Transport
Sedimentation
Translocation
Living Biomass
Vegetation
Organic-Mineral Phase
Underground Detritus
Surface Detritus
Soil
Maintenance Production
Medium-term Conservation
Landscape Diversity
Long-term Conservation
Products
Short-term Conservation
Quantification and Verification
• Level: Quantifying the sink strength
• Change: Temporal verification of air pollution effect is possible, but attribution is difficult (link to carbon market).
• However, management options are numerous and effective (3.3 in SRES)
Carbon market and Air pollutionStylised examples
• Case 1: Russian forest fire in 1998
• Case 2: Who pays for the lost removal - Austria
• Case 3: Environmental additionality - JI in Poland
Conclusion
• Yes, there are clear and quantitatively important linkages
• Methodology: Risk augmented cost / benefit
• Land management is local and multiple criteria – Consistency with MCPFE, BdConv., Food
supply
C-N Vegetation Pools(Biomass Production)
Lithosphere Hydrosphere
Atmosphere
C-N Detritus Pools(Litter fall and Decay)
N-uptake
(Humification& Mineralization)
(N-fixation& nitrification-dinitrification)
N-nutrients supply
C-N gases from soil respiration
C-uptakeC-N gases from consumption-disturbances
C-N gases from detritus decay
C-N solubles from detritus decay
C-N solubles from pedogenesis
C-N Soil Pools
C-N input into soil
Biosphere
The FOR Model for Biogenic (CO2 ,CH4 ,N2O) GHG Inventory (BIGIN):Principle C-N Pools, Processes (in brackets) and fluxes (arrows)