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Candidate Name: Md Nazmus ShakibCandidate CPR No: 251182-4071.
Option 1
Written Exam - home assignment
Regular exam in IB55 (15-23 November 2011)
IB55 - fall semester 2011
International Business Environment
Can Seng Ooi, Associate Professor
Exam date: 15/11- 2011 at 12:00
Submission date: 23/11- 2011 at 12:00
Location for submission: CBS, the IBS secretariatGabriella Stephanie MunchDpt. of International Economics and Management (INT.)Copenhagen Business SchoolPorcelnshaven 24, INT. 1st floor,
IBS Office 1.72aDK - 2000 Frederiksberg
Tel. +45. 3815 2517
22 November 2011
GSM
Gabriella St. Munch
Program Administrator
M. Sc. International
Business Studies
Dir. +45 3815 2517
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CPR No: 2511824071 APEC, China and New world Trade order: Unfolding the truth!
Table of Contents
Introduction 3
Scope determination 3
Multilateralism and APEC 4APEC and China: few facts 4-5
Compare and Contrast: China, USA and other major participants 5-6
Crisis and beyond: A trilogy on APEC 10
A testimony of Multilateralism in the time of crisis
(Case study:APEC,China and USA) 10-13
Concluding Remarks 14
References 15
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Introduction
We live in a world where we are virtually connected with the people around the globe.
Globalization whether it has been helpful or not, will remain a historical debate for haves and
have nots group; yet no one group can thoroughly deny the fact of interconnectivity. From thenip of the pen factory in Vietnam to the giant base of windmill in Amsterdam- all has been an
integral part of Global Trade regime, where country itself plays as a striker, medals the greatest
game to win and if not wining try to averse the loss. Global game of trade though most of time
played under the virtual boundaries of the state participation and state cohesion either in bipartite
or in multipartite format, yet we still watch this trade as much contentious and volatile as trade
war1 is in place. In the crisis, boundaries become more visible and own interest persuasion
dominates the podium of trade; fogs trade liberty as unbelievable and to all extent ineffective as
ever.
Scope of the Assignment
Multilateral agreements in International trade as a whole is a big ticket item and in a short stint of
time looking at these agreements in a birds eye view may lead to observational fallacy. Making
things more effective and thus to conclude a logical reasoning-we have narrowed the whole
recipes into some pies; where we would basically look into the matters as follows:
APEC and its journey multilateral agreement and its journey for the last 10 years in theinternational trade arena.
Deep diving into APECand a close eye on China and USA in APEC matters; alongsidethe bilateral agreements between them.
In the time of crisis, what this multilateral agreement reveal and does it stand out as thesolution in the trade arena.
And finally, criss-crossing the earlier puzzles we will comment on multilateralagreements based on the facts derived from APEC.
Putting all our effort to look into the basket of APEC is simply because APEC constitutes of 21
countries representing both developed and developing countries. And most importantly, almost
44% 2 of global trade occurs in this Asia Pacific rim with China, USA and Japan.
1Signified and coined by Jagdish Bhagwati in Jagdish Bhagwatis blog 2010.(why free trade matters)2 WTO Trade Statistics Report2011.
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Multilateralism and APEC3
:
It has been a pivotal issue for the countries of how much is it connected with the other parties
beyond the sovereign boundaries. Opening up the market has been the name of the existence for
different countries and it ispossible only through both
bilateral and multilateral
agreements arranged in certain
trade blocs or region. It has
been noted from the last year
trade statistics report- out of 5
regional Trade agreements
only 3 remains pretty active. They are active in a sense that they are ready or have already to
give the market access through FTA.
APEC since its inception has always called for economic integration. More integration means of
trade liberalization, creating employment and energizing growth. And to do that accessing the
market is the key arena. From Canberra 1989 to Yokohama 2010, APEC has established a
quality linkage in the trade sectors among all of its trade members. Economic cooperationism 4
has been the cornerstone for the last three meets at APEC but this time after BOGOR5
implementation in 13 associates, APEC came up with more integration possibilities with
ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6 and TPP6 channels to diverse its trade relations and sustain dynamic
gains7 in the trade world.
APEC and CHINA
China has been the fastest growing economies around the world for the last 5 years; a great boom
in the export sectors fathoms their national strength in the channel of international trade regime.
It has huge trade surplus which can balance off the shock of recession but a paradox has been
existing in the pipeline of it as well; nearly 60% of its GDP is dependent to export sectors thus
321 Pacific Rim countries and was established in 1989, china joined in 1991, constitutes 50% of world GDP, 40% of world population, 44% ofworld trade. Combination of both developed and developing states.4 Co operationism coined by Hikari ishido in looking back and beyond of APEC.5 BOGOR: Goals set for the trade partners in APEC summit 2006.6Connectivity through Trans pacific partnership.7Coined by Schumpeter.(1926)
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making it more vulnerable in the time of economic crisis in the world. A major parameter of
growth has also been in China that about 30-40 % population coming out of poverty level and
joining the force of middle class, making it the biggest size of the market for merchandised items
from all around the world.
Source: WTO stat on China October 2011
The biggest market in size and the largest exporter, China, has not actually capitalized its fire in
a sense of Multilateralism of APEC so far as most of its huge exports count on bilateral trade
balances. It has been revealed that 18% of its export in USA 8. Digging this into a bit more we
have a comparison as:
Source: statAPEC
From the table it is crystal clear that China enjoys a handsome trade balance which actually
accelerates the wheel of its growth engine, hence it has also been a paradox to China that is has
lower market access score than the overall APEC countries score level.
Compare and Contrast: China, USA and other major participants
Since the beginning, USA has been the dominant player in the APEC format. On the contrary to
China, USA is trading with trade deficit. But the fact which really encounters our mind is the
overall score for accessing the market looks a bit higher for China and even compared to APEC
score overall.
8 WTO trade statistics on China Oct 2011. Exports in EU: 19% and in USA: 18%.
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As a result, the narration gets a bit interesting that overall negative growth of GDP in APEC is
quite aligned to USAs negative GDP trend9 whereas China still is very much in comfortable
position with the boost of growth in GDP. Stepping into a conclusion that China is leveraging
higher growth from APEC or not - therefore a big question comes in the corner. To look at it we
tried to look into the overall bilateral trade figures with the major participants in APEC with
China. In this statistics
what we have got is
very identical, since
with all the major
players in APEC,
China has the
functional trade basis.
Just comparing with
USA from 2007-09,
more exports puts trade balance higher than all participants, somehow a bit puzzling. As we all
know that trade is not a zero sum game10. In each case, China has gained a lot from this
agreement framework. Now it is again a question that for bilateral or multilateral agreements
has China gained that handsome momentum in trade. And if it has gained from APEC
agreements we need to look at the magnanimity of it. It has always been a question that whether
it is only China that cashes the growth or the whole APEC got the fruit of it. Since this is one that
multilateral agreements which puts Spaghetti Bowl11 to transform and take a shape of
Lasagna.
Plotting the figures against the world data and other regional and multilateral agreements, we can
then have the actual data of how much China has been benefited to this sort of trade
arrangement.
Again we see a magic of this agreement as nearly 70% of the trade exists within the trade zone
that APEC has been created for. It is estimated that if trade fosters like this in this region, it
9Stats APEC: USA GDP growth: -2.4(2009); whereas China :6.7(2009)
10 Nash Equilibrium, Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, Princeton University press, 1953.11Jagdish Bhagwati, U.S. Trade Policy: The Infatuation with Free Trade Agreements.1995
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would tend to reach a growth momentum of both exports of 6.2% and imports of 5.3%
respectively in 2012.
So future looks smiley for Zia Bao, as they are already making statements on non-
protectionism12 in APEC. And more tensions waiting for Obama and other premiers.
So far we have seen both rosy and contentious picture on APEC but yet to come across the major
issues of market accessibility of the participants in APEC. There has always been a facilitation
principle for APEC countries
through which trade and intra trade
related aspects were taken care of.
Of them Trade Facilitation Action
plan is one of the key and
fundamental issues. This action plan
refers to reduce5% transaction cost
among all the trade partners in APEC between 2007 and 201013.
We can observe that an overall transaction cost reduced by 5% and saving 6% time, which have
saved an amount of 967 Million US$. Multilateral agreement thus can benefit the trade parties
among themselves like APEC. If we compare to other multilateral agreements and other major
international trade partners we can have the real insight that APEC has not only reduced the
transaction cost, by this measure, fosters trade growth for 5% in year-on- year comparison.
Again it is pretty much predictable that trades in these areas are very much contentious to
customs exercise, tariffs and paper related stuffs. Since each country here wants to have a
12How important isAPECto China?: Yang, Yongzheng; Huang, Yiping. Australian Economic Papers, Sep99, Vol. 38 Issue 3, p32
13TFAP II (assessment on APEC).
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comparative advantage in the end, it has become more common phenomena that policy comes in
place and thus restricts the trade flow.
But within the framework of TFAP II all the countries in APEC have consented on low paper
issues and reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers within the intra APEC.
Meanwhile the figures above actually have put more muscle to the puzzle of multilateralism. As
we can observe here that both China and Japan still posing a great tariff even if for the MF
nations. And an interesting part reveals here that USA, who has always kept low tariff on
agricultural products; but in recent years a sharp jump from 2.5% to 12%; joined tha clan of
China and Japan. It simply does
mean neither bilateralism nor
multilateralism, it simply means
of more protectionism. In terms
of efficiency drive stated in
TFAPII, the data shows here
seems very promising. Cost
reduction in APEC compared to any other agreement frame work makes it more competitive than
other multilateral agreements, meaning easier access, low cost solution and trade growth.
Therefore it has been clearly understood that after BOGOR goals implemented in the zone of
APEC, there has been fresh wave of FTAs and regional integration. For any agreement, it is must
that it contains the macroeconomic mathematics of game theory. More trade not necessarily
means more growth; it has to be pro macro growth oriented. Indication in macroeconomic
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indices would give us detail score card for APEC countries, whether it stands out the other
countries or other multilateral agreements.
Against the APEC line as we can see that developed countries better GDP /capita, China has
been by far the least whichactually unravels the huge
population size and the
income distribution level. If
we consider the trend we
would see that China has been
enjoying double digit growth
in the selected 2005-08 years.
If we look at the GDP growth rate it would give us an idea how china has been streamlining its
growth channels through trade in APEC region. More importantly, growth rate is APEC shows
greater sign than other group of countries like EU, NAFTA and OECD; thats only because of
smashing growth rate of over
6% year-on-year in both China
and Russia. And for that matter
if we look into the details of
macroeconomic issues further
we will see a positive
connotations compared to
other multilateral agreements. For example: 80%14 tarde are happening in between these
countries, it is pretty obvious that what Chinas figure is showing is a big gain and remarkable in
14 WTO trade statistics 2011.
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international trade utilizing APEC. Therefore it is again worth mentioning that developing
countries like Chile and Korea has also been cashing a lot for their own countries being in
APEC. But compared to China it looks very meager; as we have seen earlier that China has been
maintaining comparatively high tariff or even unnoticed15 tariff imposed to its imports. Is it all
because of saving the domestic industry and making it more competititve16 in the trade zone.
Hence it takes a new dilemma in the APEC states. For the last decade China has been enjoying
huge trdae surplus, but still its currency has been determied at a rate which keeps it compettitve.
For example with USA, depriciation in Yuan against US$, can only worsen the game for USA.
In the end, APEC trade tend to fall down by 5-7%, this is so mammoth that whole trade flow of
world would tend to squize down to 3%; nail biting in the sense that world has miniature (1-
1.5%) GDP growth in the last 3 years. A real story to worry for.
Crisis and beyond
It has always been a roratory factor that economy in the world has gone from bust to boom and
then facing great recovery, falling into the trap of recession; a vicisuos circle has always been
there. But the fact to be in question that policy and all other economic agreements be it bilateral
or multilateral, can save it from happening this. It has also surfaced the question of fair game in
international trade. And when crisis is in hand, things shape in protectionist movement from
country to country, it may vary, but unfortunately it has been the truth. From the great depression
of 1932, does, did or even now will the nations in international trdae learn any lessons other than
protectionism.From Keyenes to Krugman, we see a commmon thought that trade should not be
hampered due to protectionism, well of course every country must have their own choice of
making competititive its doemstic players in the market, yet again the point is it has to be just
and has to be a fair game17 for all. It will always benefit those countries having the factor
endowments18 with them and thus enjoyed the comparative advantage in the international trade.
In the time of crisis, we see that states then have the prejudice of being remained competititve
ratfying the agreement policies than others and thus kept its currency depricitaed. And the noise
errupts to shake the balance of international trade game. As a result not only the giants but also
the minnows, in terms of economy, faces the doomsday.
15 APEC outlook and beyond 2011.16 Porter, M. 1990. The competitive advantage of nations, Harvard Business Review, 68 (2): 73-9317Joseph E Stiglitz; Joanne J. Myers 2006. Fair trade for all: How trade can promote development18B. Ohlin, E Heckscher, Interregional and international Trade (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1933.)
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Source: WTO trade statistics re ort 2011
A testimony of Multilateralism in the time of crisis (Case study:APEC,China and USA)
Fundamentally we will look into the last decade (2000-2010); taking a snap shots of macro and
international trade factors of APEC overall
and specifically in the case of China and
USA. As we all know that although export
rose 30 times in the late 70s and it has
taken a sharp nose dive as well in the late
80s. If we follow trend in the last decade,
we will observe negative growth in GDP
and exports, commenting a more lengthy recession. Crisis is seen there twice in this decade and
as a result world trade has been in the negative trend. Comparing this into the decade of trade
matter in the APEC zone, we will have an idea of how much multilateral trade arrangements
have been affected or not; or would there be a new dimensions of trade been surfaced. Looking
into the trade of China in this period with USA, APEC and the rest of the world- can it give us a
picture that we are searching for.
It actually depicts that during the crisis time China neither had the de growth in GDP nor had
any impact on trade since China had been able to find out more other markets 19 that it could play
with its low labor cost edge factors, meaning that its exports rose to 11% outside and 12% dip in
export from APEC has been offset by that. But one must note that over the last 3 years China has
been facing huge troubles within APEC (losing export of 10%) since it has the largest trade
surpluses, and very likely China has been hit worst due to protectionism measures in APEC,
19 Robert C. Feenstra 2003. Advanced international trade theory and evidence
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mainly driven by USA. China remains the most frequent target of crisis-era protectionism and
vice versa, but other nations are hit often. According to a statistics in GTA, USA has implied
protectionism in the form of beggar-thy-neighbor policies as in import ban, competitive
devaluation and bail out plans etc. And thus China has also remained rigid to all its trade
members regarding importing to China. As per GTA20 report, trade discriminatory measures had
been taken earlier and it is still being valid there, which account an estimated 7-9% annual
decline in overall trade in the worldwide and especially in APEC. As a matter of fact since the
inception of APEC, global domino21 effect starts rolling in, against of the powerhouse and new
world order in the trade regime has been in effect in the late 2000s, assuming China leading the
game.
A very recent example from Obama administrations appeal in the APEC summit for green
goods liberalization, as expectedSingapore and China resisting it highly. And keeping China
apart, USA tries to build a TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) for liberalizing trade and reducing
non-tariff barriers. On the other hand China is looking forward to CAFTA, free trade agreement
with ASEAN bloc.
All the factors are now being very open that in the time of crisis neither China nor USA has been
keen and firm to continue the legacy of APEC as in multilateralism, well of course, remaining
competitive than others Chinese govt.22also feel that time has come when trade should be more
open in this hard time. Unlike 2001, China has been approaching to a paradise lost 23 position,
China being very much sure that it cannot be able to prolong the growth engine of trade lonely
but along with others.Therefore, a long history of trade disputes between China and USA pushes
the game of influence in the world order of trade; escalation to these would impact only trade,
and can just win bilateral discomfort. To make it understandable and more vivid lets put the
following connotations and see how the answer comes to us in response:
A: Since 50% GDP of World currently constitutes fromAPEC and China single handedly propels the growth
engine with more than 60% of its exports while others
20 Global Trade Alert Report 2011.(9th GTA Report)21 A domino theory of Regionalism, Richard E Baldwin, Graduate international Studies, p 14-1622Reject protectionism to fight global crisis: Wen Jiabao, Chinese premier at New York times, Oct 14, 201123 New York times
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(USA, Japan) facing thecontrast, can it be the protectionism to recover this gloomy shades of
trade or doing this we are actually slowing the recovery and thus reversing the growth engine.
B. Not only China needs APEC24 rather it can be of two ways and measures of trade
liberalization therefore can make the trade elastic in the long run.
Figures sometimes shock and shaken us. Total 356 protectionism measures have been taken
during 2010-11 and due to that trade have been hampered by 7% in gross in APEC. Since major
players trying to save their domestic clients and thus can lead to abnormal behavior in
international trade like in 30s, as a result, success journey seems bleak here in APEC now. And
for the second connotation, we can see that over the last 2 years there has been trade complains
to WTO regarding the bilateral trade between China and USA, out of total 17 TDS 25 in 2010, 3
of them from China and USA complaining to each other. So far this is the game and this the way
players of international trade playing even though they are in complete global hairball
phenomena, sometimes calling it multilateral agreement framework.
Lessons therefore are yet to be learnt due to all so called savior format i.e. state aid. It is the last
resort in the time of deep crisis. Beyond that all we know that there is just a black hole of world
trade, liberalizing ultimately can resume the trade once again. In the case of APEC we got the
notion as following:
A. Showcasing China and USA we have come to point that trade has been severely curtailedfrom and to, therefore slow recovery26 of world trade system is evident since 50% of
world GDP constitute from here.
B. Bi lateral issues are now taken as choice of the game, yet the mistakes came across asonce again in trade channel even though all know that it is no more for two partys game.
It is as because one country wont be abundant in resources for the infinite time, therefore
new market and new provision to be there, to catch the right fish from the right pond,
would be the name of the game, and it is Multilateralism, however not tried and tested yet
with its full throttle.
24Do Trade Unions Deteriorate International Competitiveness? Reconciliation of the DiscrepancyBetween Theory and Practice Chi-Hsin Wu &Chia-Ying Liu, Atlantic Journal 2010. p14625 Trade dispute settlement by WTO; in 2010 there has been 17 TDS and out of these 3 has been between China and USA referring as the disputesno. WT/DS217; WT/DS36326Sally, R. 2009. "Exit Goldilocks, enter crisis and new protectionist threats," Economic Affairs 29(1): 99.
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C. Compensating and/or trying to save own industry; at the same time making it competitivein the global market is just the opposite. End of the day innovation take its toll, making
other obsolete. At least in APEC, infancy game27 is not encouraged from both China &
USA.
D. Trade competition is very welcome and probably the hygiene for having been competitivein the market and for the core consumers, but trade rivalry at this age is simply a double
edged sword. Cutting others edge in ones own market is just putting ones own trade into
axed in turn, causing a double dip finally.
Concluding Remarks
Yes or no for multilateralism, is not the answer or cant be the answer by judging the merit and
sphere of International trade. Its not a simple two plus two theory. Still I would remark keeping
zig-zug-saw international trade environment in mind that within the framework of multilateral
agreements, countries choose more of bilateral FTAs. The big game is still untouched due to
cumbersome policy level implications. Had it not been the case, global crisis can be recovered
from the world much earlier. In the case of 2010, only recently APEC- the biggest trade body
moving like tortoise dilemma because its not only and the only TRADE here, it is more than
that. For sure winners and losers are there, for instance China would not let its huge trade (60%)
off from APEC, and neither do USA want china out of the frame; somehow just not been side by
side. But both the parties aware of new modus of operandi in the new horizon for trade. APECs
initiatives for trade involvement with ASEAN bloc is just the beginning. Big picture says
multilateralism do exist and will be the name of the game for trade liberalization in future where
WTO should conduct the game with post DOHA scenario and fair trade for all treatment.
Finally we can say that it is indeed contentious and cumbersome to practice the game of
multilateral agreement, and in the event of crisis, it seems broken and didnt pay off; all we can
say that hiding from the truth of multilateral format would be costlier even, all just needed is tochange the rules of game so that trade wins not the bureaucratic policies.
27Markets, Structures and foreign trade: Imperfect competition and international economy, P Krugman, MIT press, 1985.
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Reference(s):
Book reference:1. Joseph E Stiglitz; Joanne J. Myers 2006. Fair trade for all: How trade can promote development.2. Cavusgil, S.T; G. Knight and J.R. Riesenberger. 2008. International Business: The New Realities, Pearson
International edition. New Jersey: Pearson.3. Charles W Hill, 2005. International Business, Competing in Global Market Place; 5 th edition, McGraw
Hills.Article reference:
1. Rethinking regionalism: Europe and East Asia in comparative historical perspective ;Mark Beeson2. How important is APEC to China?: Yang, Yongzheng; Huang, Yiping. Australian Economic Papers,
Sep99, Vol. 38 Issue 3, p3283. APEC: Looking back and forward;.Ishido, Hikari. Regional Outlook, 2011/2012 Southeast, p101-105.4. Toward Fruitful Achievements of APEC Japan 2010. By: Nishimaya, Hidehiko. Economy, Culture &
History Japan Spotlight, Sep/Oct2010, Vol. 29 Issue 5, p6-95. Do Trade Unions DeteriorateInternationalCompetitiveness?Atlantic Economic Journal; Jun2010, Vol. 38
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2011.p1, 3, 10.8. APEC AT 20: Retrospect and Prospect. Milo, Melanie S. Regional Outlook, 2009/2010 Southeast, p68-78,
11p9. Market integration and extreme co-movements in APEC emerging equity markets. Xiao-Ming Li; Rose,
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Geng, June 2007, Washington, p4-6.11. The collapse of global trade, murky protectionism, and the crisis: Recommendations for the G20; edited
by Richard Baldwin and Simon Evenett, center for economic policy Research 2009.12.A True Development Round? A Review of Joseph E. Stiglitz and Andrew Charltons Fair Trade for
All:How Trade Can Promote Development; Robert J Lawrence, jouran of Economic literature, vol. XLVDec. 2009
13. Protectionist Responses to the Crisis: Damage Observed in Product-Level Trade; Christian Henn andBrad McDonald; IMFWP/11/139Reports:
1. APECs Achievements in Trade Facilitation 2007-2010 - Final Assessment of TFAPII2. TFAP II Key Performance Indicators.3. APEC Outcomes and Outlook 2010/2011.4. APEC at a Glance, 2011.5. WTO World trade statistics 2009, 2010.6. WTO Annual report 2001, 2010, 20117. Global Competitiveness report 2009-10, 2010-11.8. Global Trade Alert Report Nov 2011.9. UNCTAD Annual report 2001, 2009, 2010.10. China Business Forecast Report, Oct2011, Issue 4, p7-12.
Others:1. Multilateral vs. bilateral trade agreements; UPIAsia.com 17th Nov, 20112. Regional agreements: the pepper in the multilateral curry Lamy; WTO News, 17th Jan 2007.3. Obama pushes Pacific trade agenda at Apec;4. Blog writing of Jagdish Bhagwati; why Free trade matters;5. Interview of Joseph Stieglitz on Globalization.(2008)6. www.ft.com7. www.economist.com8. www.eikipedia.org.9. www.apec.org/statsAPEC10. www.globaltradealert.org.