Appraising sub-regional and local growth
strategies in the Nottingham-Leicester-
Derby Area, UK.
Policy applications of a new model of transport and
land use activities
Duncan Forbes and Ying Jin WSP Policy & Research, Cambridge, UK
ETC 2008 8 October 2008
The 3 Cities
sub-region, UK
The PTOLEMY1 study area
1Planning Transport and Land use for the East Midlands economy
Structure of presentation
Overview of PTOLEMY and the modelling approach
Results from modelling studies undertaken– Case Study 1: Regional planning policy assessment– Case Study 2: Regional transport policy assessment– Case Study 3: Local housing policy assessment
What is a land use & transport model
Economic Activity
Population
Location of shops, jobs,
leisure
Location of households
Land use influences
the use of transport
Transport influences
the location of land use
Costs and
congestion
Costs and
congestion
Land-use activities
Basic Industries
10 full time + 10 Part time
Households 35 Income-occupation/ Household size/ car availability
Population 8 age/employment-education status
Employed residents 40 Income-occupation/ Household size/car availability/FT-PT
Local services
5 full time +5 Part time
Households
Basic Industries
Local Services
transport
Eg shops, schools
TransportPTOLEMY incorporates a multimodal transport model
Cycling
Walking
HGV
LGV
Households
Basic Industries
Local Services
transport
Bus
Coach
Tram Train
Park and Ride
Car
Traveller segments 22 (purpose, income-occupation groups, etc)
Main travel modes 10 (all land modes including walking/cycling)
Travel stages 23 (in-vehicle, access, waiting, etc)
No of transport links 64,000
Case Study 1:
Regional Planning Policy Assessment
Test options
Dwelling test options
D1: Dwelling Option 1Trend growth
Trend based growth assumptions from the Department for Communities and Local Government projections of households.
D2: Dwelling Option 2Urban concentration
Policy based growth determined from the East Midlands draft-RSS (Regional Spatial Strategy).
Employment test forecasts
E1: Employment Forecast 1Employment growth
Employment forecast based upon TEMPRO 5.3, producing 5.9% growth over the period 2006 to 2016 and 3.4% growth over the period 2016 to 2026.
E2: Employment Forecast 2Employment decline
Alternative employment forecast with -3.4% growth over the period 2006 to 2016, and 1.3% growth over the period 2016 to 2026.
• Similar levels of growth• D2 concentrates growth in main urban areas
• E1 has positive employment growth• E2 sees employment decline
Employment
Change 2001 - 2006
Change 2006 - 2016
E1-D1
E1-D2
E2-D1
E2-D2
Total employment in study area
4% 6% 6% -4% -4%
Total employed residents in study area
4% 12% 9% 12% 9%
Total in-commuters
21% 6% 6% -4% -4%
Total out-commuters
15% 57% 36% 132% 112%
Highlights the increase in out-commuting from the sub-region in the period 2006 to 2026
Passenger trips
Passenger trip-km
Average journey length
Commuting 4% 25% 20%Education 7% 9% 2%All 7% 20% 13%Commuting 2% 18% 16%Education 5% 7% 2%All 5% 15% 10%Commuting 3% 43% 38%Education 7% 10% 2%All 6% 31% 23%Commuting 1% 35% 34%Education 6% 8% 2%All 5% 26% 21%
E2-D2
Growth 2006 -2026
E1-D1
E1-D2
E2-D1
Travel characteristics
E1-D2 scenarioPositive employment growth and urban concentration housing growth
DerbyNottingham
Leicester
Average zonal road traffic speeds
Conclusions from Case Study 1
Demonstrated the importance of the balance of employment and housing
Showed that even with low economic growth traffic can grow
Showed that average traffic speeds within the region would fall particularly in suburban and rural networks
Case Study 2:
Regional Transport Assessment
Key features of the proposed Innovative package of measures
Congestion-charge cordon around the urban centres of Nottingham, Leicester and Derby
– £1.75 change on inbound traffic in the morning peak and outbound traffic movements in the evening peak.
– No charge was incurred outside the peak periods.
Measures that would allow or encourage travellers to change from using the car to making use of alternative transport modes:– Core measures: – Public transport fare reduction:– ‘Smarter’ choices:
Summary of impact in the AM peak period (7am to 10am) Compared to a continuation of current policy:
– Car: – car trips reduced by 15%– average monetary cost increased by 31%
– Park and Ride – use increase significantly with travellers closer to the park and
ride sites making more use of the facilities. – Bus
– increases by 70% – the average journey length increasing by 6%. – average fare reduced by 25%
– Tram– 67% increase in patronage with the introduction of new routes.
– Walking and cycling – also saw a 8% increase
Conclusions from Case Study 2 We were able to show that there was a significant
reduction in the use of car transport leading lower levels of congestions
-8.2%
0.5%
4.9%
0.1%0.6%
2.1%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Car Park andRide
Bus Train tram Walkingand
Cycling
Ch
ang
e in
mo
de
shar
e (%
tri
ps)
.
Case Study 3:
Local Housing Policy Assessment
Derby
Loughborough
Leicester
Nottingham
Burton
Housing rent indicator
M1 Motorway
Coalville
Hinckley
Change in congestion levels
Conclusions from Case Study 3
Highlighted the impact on the local housing market from the construction of 15000 dwellings within Coalville
Showed that congestions is likely to increase from Coalville leading to the M1, but also towards Loughborough
Conclusions
PTOLEMY has been developed to undertake a range of policy test within the 3-cities sub region of the East Midlands. – Case Study 1. Demonstrates the importance between the
balance of employment and housing.– Case Study 2. Shows that a package of transport measures
would be successful in reducing car traffic to support the economic development ambitions of the sub-region.
– Case Study 3: Shows the likely impacts to the local housing market and the impact of development on the highway network.
The model is now being extensively used by both public and private bodies within the region, in a number of new policy
applications
Acknowledgments PTOLEMY model development
– UK Highways Agency, East Midlands Development Agency, East Midlands Regional Authority, Department for Transport, East Midlands Airport
Case Study 1.– UK Highways Agency, East Midlands Development Agency, East Midlands Regional
Authority Case Study 2
– Derby City Council, Derbyshire County Council, Leicester City Council, Leicestershire County Council, Nottingham City Council, Nottinghamshire County Council
Case Study 3– Leicestershire County Council
WSP team– Gordon Deane, Duncan Forbes, Jing Gao, Jenny Hunt, Vera Jakimovska, Ying Jin, Ian
Williams, Yan Zhu