Transformation of the British GSHP market
David Matthews, Chief ExecutiveGround Source Heat Pump Association
22nd October 2012
Assessing the role of ground source heating & cooling as one of the 8 key renewables techsSolar thermal – HW in summer.
mCHP – it only saves a bit of carbon. Fuel cell might be a very interesting proposition.
Biomass – rural “high enthalpy” applications.
ASHP – more expensive and only small carbon saving as compared to gas. Noise issues.
Continue with fossil fuels – they run out!
GSHP – low cost & carbon. Needs some space.
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
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12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
UK
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Ger
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Gre
ece
Bel
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Aus
tria
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tuga
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Cyp
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Luxe
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urg Mal
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Fin
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Sw
eden
Slo
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Hun
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Lith
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and
Slo
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Latv
ia
Est
onia
Cze
ch R
epub
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Bul
garia
Rom
ania
Per
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e p
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tsin
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EU Member States
Increase in percentage share of total final consumption of energy from renewable sources
12% Renewable Heat; 29% large scale electricity,
2% Small Scale electricity, 10% transport
EU Renew able Energy Policy (20:20:20) - D irective 2009/28/EC… on the prom otion of the use of energy from renew able sources
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10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
Austria
Be lg ium
Bulgaria
C yprus
C zech Repub lic
D enmark
E ston ia
F in land
F rance
Germany
Greece
H ungary
Ireland
Italy
La tvia
L ithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
N etherla
nds
Po land
Portuga l
R omania
S lovakia
S loven ia
Spain
Sweden
U nited K
ingdom
So u r ce : Eu r A ct iv Ne tw o r k w w w .e u r activ.co m /, Dir e ct ive 2009/28/EC
Sh
are
of
ren
ew
ab
les
(%
)
Share of renewables (%) in 2005
Share of renewables (%) required by 2020
Country Number installed Date started
Austria 23 000
Canada 36 000
Germany 40 000 1996
Sweden 200 000 1980
Switzerland 25 000 1980
UK 3 000
USA 600 000 1996
• One in 4 to 5 of Swedish homes use a GSHP & Mature markets have codes of practice, standards & training
UK 2007
UK HP experience
Advanced Markets:
market supported by codes of practice,
standards and training
Medium sized markets:
in process of transformation Advanced
Low penetration markets e.g. UK:
need considerable intervention
UK today
ASHP vs GSHP 08 to 10
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2008 2009 2010
Un
its GSHP
ASHP
UK today
Commercial HP Sales 09 to 11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar
1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr 1st Qtr
2009 2010 2011
Un
its
ASHP Commercial (20.01-30kW)
ASHP Commercial (>30kW)
GSHP Commercial (20.01-30kW)
GSHP Commercial (>30kW)
UK today
Domestic HP Sales 09 to 11
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar
1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr 1st Qtr
2009 2010 2011
Un
its
ASHP Small domestic (<7kW)
ASHP Small domestic (7-10kW)
ASHP Large domestic (10.01-15kW)
ASHP Large domestic (15.01-20kW)
Small domestic (<7kW)
Small domestic (7-10kW)
Large domestic (10.01-15kW)
Large domestic (15.01-20kW)
Domestic Carbon Emissions 2003
Cooking5%
Lights & Appliances
22%
Water Heating
20%
Space Heating
53%
Cooking
Lights &Appliances
Water Heating
Space Heating
74%
3%
11%
9%1%2%
Heating and hot water
Fans, pumps, controls
Lighting
Office equipment
Catering
Other electricity
CommercialCommercial
Office Type 1: Source Carbon Trust & http://www.cibse.org/pdfs/ECG019.pdf
Good Policy Framework
Financial Schemes
Regulation Schemes
Quality Scheme
Supported by flanking measures of:
Public Awareness
Training
RHI Spend 2011/15
Good Policy Framework
Financial Schemes
Regulation Schemes
Quality Scheme
Supported by flanking measures of:
Public Awareness EST? Geo.power?
Training SSC, Awarding Bodies, Geotrainet, IGSHPA, Design, Install, Specify
RHI Spend 2011/15
Within £864m – fixed annual envelope
(nominal):
Actual Spend New Spend
2011/12:£56m £56m
2012/13: £133m £77m
2013/14: £251m £174m
2014/15: £424m £250m
Total £864m
RHI Spend 2011/15
The Renewable Heat Incentive-implications for non-domestic ground source installations
Phase 1: 3 or 4.3 p/kWh (100 kWth)over 20 years Metered
Phase 2: 12.5 to 17.3 p/kWh (MCS) over 7 yearsDeemed
The Renewable Heat Incentive-implications for non-domestic ground source installations
Phase 1: 3 or 4.3 p/kWh (100 kWth)over 20 years Metered
Phase 2: 12.5 to 17.3 p/kWh (MCS) over 7 yearsDeemed
The European perspective
Renewable Heating Action Plan for Europe – barriers:
large upfront investment cost
return on investment cost not including fuel inflation
owner – tenant dilemma i.e. rented accommodation
chicken and egg – low awareness, low demand etc.
RES – H still considered “exotic”
lack of critical mass
Owner – tenant dilemma i.e. rented accommodation
Social housing
Private rented housing
Private mass-market housing
Private upmarket housing
How do we engage the middle 2 sectors?
Community schemes?
SEA / RENUE Report on“Barriers to installing DSHW systems”:• older, home owners from higher status. (not income)
• advertise in local press backed by local authority
• visiting fairs etc. is not so important
• effective marketing – saving money, future proofing, environmental reasons to target groups
• increase emotional involvement of client with installation to build momentum
• currently solar grant needs to be £1000 to £1500 to remove cost barrier e.g. £4000 to £6000 GSHP
To alleviate cost issues (the major barrier):
• arrange low-interest loans
• install when heating system being refurbished
• group installations for economies of scale
• target new build
Train installers in customer care, disseminate info in Energy Efficiency Advice Centres and use case studies of existing customers
SEA / RENUE Report on“Barriers to installing DSHW systems”:
Renewable Energy House – Brussels