Atmospheric ForecastsAdaptive Ocean Sampling Network II (AOSN-II)
Monterey Bay Predictive Skill Experiment
Real-Time AOSN COAMPSNRL MRY ran a 4-nest grid structure w/3 km grid spacing for real-time
support of AOSN
9 km
3 km
27 km
81 km
Twice daily forecasts to 72 h with data assimilation
NOGAPS lateral boundary conditions
Used FNMOC DoD HPC Distributed Computing Facility
Real-time fields put on ftp site: Used to force HOPS and ROMS
ocean models
Atmospheric ForecastsAdaptive Ocean Sampling Network II (AOSN-II)
Horizontal Resolution Sensitivity/Wind Stress Validation
COAMPS Forecast
M1 Observations
August 2003
August 2003
Ocean modelers have shown improved representation of the wind stress curl using the 3 km grid at the coast
leads to improved representation of upwelling1
COAMPS 3 km Forecast Surface Stress Compares Favorably to Observed Stress at M1 Buoy
3 km
9 km
Representation of Coastal Jets, Wind Stress Curl, and Coastal Shear Zone
Improved using Higher Resolution Grid
27 km
M1
Wind Speed (m/s)121086420
The leftmost 3 boxes show COAMPS wind
speed (color) and direction (arrows) for 27, 9, and 3 km grids
Graphs on right show observed (upper) and
COAMPS (lower) Surface Stress
Observed Wind Speeds (blue)0-12h COAMPS Wind Speeds (red)
For M1 (top) and M2 (bottom)
M115
10
5
0
Win
d S
pee
d (
m/s
)
7/27/03 8/3/03 8/10/03 8/17/03
M212
8
4
0
Win
d S
pee
d (
m/s
)
7/27/03 8/3/03 8/10/03 8/17/03
Atmospheric ForecastsAdaptive Ocean Sampling Network II (AOSN-II)
Evaluation of COAMPS WindsCourtesy of Oleg Logoutov and Pierre Lermusiaux, Harvard University
Results indicate that COAMPS is able to replicate
daily diurnal changes in wind speed as well as larger time scale synoptic events
M1
M2
MRYSanta Cruz