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Austria‘s emission projections
Stephan Poupa & Melanie Sporer, 10th Mai 2010
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Outline
1. General System
2. Models and Methods
3. Results
4. Outlook
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1. General System
NISA and EMIPRO reporting
Institutional arrangements
Scenario development
Policies and measures
Gen
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Reporting (NISA and EMIPRO)
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Submission under UNFCCC National Inventory
Report (NIR), Common Reporting Format (CRF) Tables, National
Communications
Submission under EC NECNFR Tables for NEC Gases and Report
Submission under EC GHG Monitoring Mechanism CRF
Tables/Short NIR, EMIPRO Report, PaMs & Projections Tables
Submission under UNECE/LTRAP Informative Inventory Report (IIR), Nomenclature for Reporting (NFR) Tables
National Reports to the parliament and for the
public
National System
Quality Management System
(including Good Practice)
Austrian Air Emission Inventory
Policies & Measures and Projections
UNFCCC + Kyoto
Protocol
Environmental Control Act
EC NEC Directive
EC GHG Monitoring Mechanism
UNECE/LRTAP + Protocols
Gen
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yste
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Institutional arrangements
Gen
era
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BMLFUW: contracting body
WIFO: general macro-
economic data;industrial
production
TU Vienna: ERNSTL; input
renewables
Energieagentur: BALMOREL, LEAP
Umweltbundesamt: overall coordination, technical support, compilation, waste
projections, autoproducer, policies
and measures, …
TU Graz:GLOBEMI, GEORG
WIFO, Gumpen-
stein: PASMA
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Scenario development
with measures - scenario (wm) and a with additional measures -scenario (wam) for GHG; wm -scenario for air pollutants
the underlying wm- forecast (activity data) takes into account climate change mitigation measures that were implemented under the Austrian Climate Strategies 2002 and 2007 before 8th August 2008
wam – forecast takes into account planned policies and measures with a realistic chance of being adopted and implemented in time.
Gen
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All additional measures have been defined at expert level in consultation with the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management (BMLFUW).
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2. Models and Methods
Modeling framework and sectoral approach
Quality management
Uncertainty assessment
Key parameters
Mod
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Modeling framework for emission projections
Energy Forecast
(national energy balance, macro-
economic model, 3 bottom up ,
models)
Transport Forecast (bottom-up
national transport
model GLOBEMI)
Agricultural Forecast
(PASMA model and expert
consultations)
Waste Forecast
(EAA and expert judgements)
Forecast Industrial Processes, Solvents, F-Gases(EAA,macro-
economic model)
Sectoral Emission Projections (Umweltbundesamt-EAA)
National Emission Projections (Umweltbundesamt-EAA)
Mod
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Quality management
Questionnaire has been used for checking input data for compliance with the most important data quality requirements
Several data consistency checks have been performed e.g. by documentation of data inputs and changes in the calculation files; fixed input form has been used for each sector
Often same person responsible for sectoral emission projections and Inventory; some sectors use emission methods based on the verified inventory methods
An output data check has been carried out by comparing the results of the sectors in detail and checking the plausibility of the emission trends
There are iterative feedback-loops between modeling teams, sectoral experts, and sectoral inventory experts in which scenarios, assumptions and policies and measures included in the forecasts are discussed
Mod
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Key underlying assumptions
Mod
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2010 2015 2020
GDP [bio€ 2000] 256.52 287.83 321.70
Population [1 000] 8 427 8 561 8 672
Stock of dwellings [1 000] 3 602 3 725 3 827
International coal prices [€/GJ]
6.59 7.36 7.44
International oil prices [€/GJ]
14.93 14.93 14.93
International gas prices [€/GJ]
9.62 9.62 9.62
average oil price of the energy model (WIFO): USD120 (USD/€ 1,37)
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Uncertainty Assessment
Sensitivity assessments have been performed for specific
(sub-) sectors, analysing the increase and decrease of key factors or of a combination of key factors:
Energy sector: influence of the natural gas price, electricity demand and electricity imports on CO2 emissions of Energy Industries; influence of the oil
price on CO2 emissions from Manufacturing Industries and
Construction; changes of renovation rate and changes of boiler exchange rates on CO2 emissions from the Residential and
Commercial sector; influence of fuel price differences between Austria and neighbouring countries on CO2 emissions from Transport
Agricultural sector: changes of product prices
Mod
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3. Results
Resu
lts
Sensitivity Analysis
Submission under EC NEC Directive
Submission under UNECE/ LRTAP Convention
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Sensitivity analysis transport
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
20142016
20182020
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000Development CO2 Emissions
CO2 "WM"
CO2 "0"
CO2 "x2"
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
[1
00
0 t
]
Resu
lts
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Sensitivity analysis residentials
Resu
lts
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 202010,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
14,500
Sensitivity Analysis 1.A.4WM-Sens_bio+20%
WM-Sens_boilexrate-1%
WM
WM-Sens_renrate-0.3%
WM-Sens_boilexrate+1%
WM-Sens_renrate+0.3%
WM-Sens_gas+30%
WM-Sens_foss+30%
Em
iss
ion
s [
Gg
CO
2 e
q]
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EC NEC Directive
Resu
lts
1990 2000 2005 2007 2010
Pollutants Austrian Emission Inventory 2008[kt]
Projection Emissions
[kt]NOx 192.51 204.45 239.62 220.10 198.75SO2 74.34 31.64 27.19 25.60 25.80NMVOC 273.64 176.04 178.71 179.81 167.70NH3 71.18 69.25 66.11 66.41 61.45
Pollutants Emissions 2010 without ‘tank tourism’ [kt/a]
Ceilings 2010[kt/a]
NOX 146.20 103
SO2 25.75 39
NMVOC 164.31 159
NH3 61.31 66
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UNECE/LTRAP Convention
Resu
lts
2010 2015 2020
Pollutants Austria's emission projection based on fuel sold [kt/a]
NOX 198.75 158.80 129.66SO2 25.80 24.53 23.63NMVOC 167.70 172.45 179.08NH3 61.45 61.13 61.01
2010 2015 2020
Pollutants Austria's emission projection based on fuel used [kt/a]
NOX 146.20 125.44 110.63SO2 25.75 24.48 23.57NMVOC 164.31 169.15 176.13NH3 61.31 61.04 60.93
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4. Outlook
More flexibility in development of varied reduction scenarios
Assess synergies and trade offs between gases (AQ/CC) Update of energy projections 2030 Long term scenarios 2050 (maybe other approach e.g.
backcasting) Improved uncertainty assessment National Emission Projections System Austria (maybe
GAINS, Access,….)
Ou
tlook
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Contact & Information
Stephan Poupa
Melanie Sporer
Umweltbundesamtwww.umweltbundesamt.at
Joint TFEIP/EIONET meetingLarnaca ■ 10th Mai