64 ESPN The Magazine 04/29/2013 i l lustrat ion by JOSUE EVILLA FROM LEFT: K IM KLEMENT/USA TODAY SPORTS; STEVE MITCHELL/USA TODAY SPORTS; KEVIN REECE/AP IMAGES; ALLEN KEE/GETTY IMAGES
THE BEST-DRAFTING TEAM IS …To uncover which teams have been the wisest pickers since the NFL draft went to seven rounds in 1994, we turned to Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value metric (see right). Turns out, the six franchises atop our rankings have won 11 of the past 13 titles. In other words, the Super Bowl really is won in April. —NEIL PAINE
0
-30
+50
WHAT’S AV? AV is an approximate measure of a player’s value within a given season or career. To calculate AV, Pro Football Reference first accounts for how good or bad a given team was on offense/defense (relative to the league average), then assigns an approximate value to each player based on his contributions to that team, using metrics like games started, Pro Bowls and All-Pros, along with stats particular to each position.
WHAT’S SURPLUS AV? For a player, it’s calculated by subtracting the expected value of his draft slot (Expected AV) from his actual value (Career AV). For example, Tom Brady’s Career AV (178.0) exceeds the Expected AV of the No. 199 pick (7.9), giving him a +170.1 Surplus AV. For a team, Surplus AV per year—the metric by which every team is ranked—is the Surplus AV of all its picks divided by the number of drafts in which it participated since 1994. The equation:
SUR
PLU
S AV
/YEA
R
WHAT'S AV?
CAREER AV( YEARS— EXPECTED AV ) SURPLUS AV/YEAR
HOW WE RANKED THEM
PACK
ERS
STEE
LERS
COLT
S
RAVE
NS
PATR
IOTS
GIAN
TS
SEAH
AWKS
JETS
BRON
COS
EAGL
ES
OILE
RS/T
ITAN
S
49ER
S
FALC
ONS
PANT
HERS
COW
BOYS
VIKI
NGS
BEAR
S
BILL
S
BUCC
ANEE
RS
JAGU
ARS
DOLP
HINS
RAM
S
CHAR
GERS
CHIE
FS
BENG
ALS
CARD
INAL
S
TEXA
NS
REDS
KINS
SAIN
TS
RAID
ERS
LION
S
BROW
NS
1
2
3
Since 1994 the Packers have drafted 22 Pro Bowlers, despite averaging the
second-lowest first-round slot in the NFL. Their knack for finding contributors in the later rounds, most notably sixth-rounder Matt Hasselbeck (+95.2 Surplus AV) and seventh-rounder Donald Driver (+88.3), is a big reason they’ve won the second-most games of any team over this span.
The Rams picks have accumulated the seventh-highest Career AV since 1994.
So why is the team's ranking so mediocre? The Rams have also had the league’s most valuable collection of picks, with an average first-round selection between No. 13 and 14 overall.
Thanks to their penchant for trading picks in exchange for overvalued—and often
unproductive—veterans, the Redskins have made the second-fewest picks per draft (6.8), and their Expected AV per year is the lowest in the NFL over this span (102.5).
+45.
7
+45.
3
+42.
2
+39.
9
+28.
6
+21.
2
+20.
8
+18.
6
+17.
6
+16.
6
+15.
2
+14.
7
+14.
1
+13.
6
+12.
1
+11.
3
+10.
6
+10.
4
+10.
2
+9.2
+8.1
+2.6
+2.2
+1.3
+0.8
+0.4
-0.3
-4.4
-7.0
-9.7
-23.
9
-28.
3
1
2
3
From left: Ronde Barber, Jason Taylor and Matt Hasselbeck.
BEST
WORST
NO. 3BROOKS+152.4
NO. 5OWENS+143.9
NO. 1LEWIS+183.3
NO. 2BRADY+170.1
To determine each franchise’s best picks since 1994, we once again turn to Surplus AV: the difference between what a player has actually produced in his NFL career and what he was expected to produce based on his draft slot. Naturally, some of the most valuable picks are those who come later in the draft, since much less was expected of them.
THE BEST PICKS ARE …
0
+100
+200
+300
SUR
PLU
S AV
NO. 4MANNING
+146.4
FR
OM
LE
FT: P
AU
L S
PIN
EL
LI/A
P IM
AG
ES
; TOM
DIP
AC
E (4
)
49ER
S
BEAR
S
BENG
ALS
BILL
S
BRON
COS
BROW
NS
BUCC
ANEE
RS
CARD
INAL
S
CHAR
GERS
CHIE
FS
COLT
S
COW
BOYS
DOLP
HINS
EAGL
ES
FALC
ONS
GIAN
TS
JAGU
ARS
JETS
LION
S
PACK
ERS
PANT
HERS
PATR
IOTS
RAID
ERS
RAM
S
RAVE
NS
REDS
KINS
SAIN
TS
SEAH
AWKS
STEE
LERS
TEXA
NS
OILE
RS/T
ITAN
S
VIKI
NGS
From 1995 to 1997, the Bucs and Dolphins made four of
the 10 best picks of the past 19 years. Among the
group—Tampa Bay’s Derrick Brooks (third-best pick, +152.4 Surplus AV) and
Ronde Barber (No. 8, +132.3), and Miami’s Thomas
(No. 6, +137.2) and Jason Taylor (No. 7, +133.9)—only Brooks was selected before
the third round.
The backbone of the Ravens’ No. 4 overall ranking is the
recently retired Lewis, whose +183.3 Surplus AV is the
highest of any player since 1994. For now. Patriots
sixth-round gem Tom Brady (+170.1) needs only one
more good season to beat his perpetual rival a final time.
TERR
ELL
OWEN
S
+14
3.9
BRIA
N U
RLAC
HER
+98.
8
CHAD
JOH
NSO
N
+71
.8
ERIC
MOU
LDS
+
51.1
TOM
NAL
EN
+
105.
4
AND
RA D
AVIS
+40.
3
DER
RICK
BRO
OKS
+
152.
4
ANQU
AN B
OLD
IN
+62
.3
DRE
W B
REES
+
125.
0
TON
Y GO
NZA
LEZ
+1
22.8
PEYT
ON M
ANN
ING
+1
46.4
LARR
Y AL
LEN
+
81.9
ZACH
TH
OMAS
+13
7.2
BRIA
N D
AWKI
NS
+1
13.2
TOD
D M
CCLU
RE
+7
2.9
TIKI
BAR
BER
+8
5.2
MAU
RICE
JON
ES-D
REW
+59
.4
JAM
ES F
ARRI
OR
+73
.4
JOH
NN
IE M
ORTO
N +
45.0
MAT
T H
ASSE
LBEC
K
+
95.2
STEV
E SM
ITH
+
89.5
TOM
BRA
DY
+
170.
1
LA'R
OI G
LOVE
R
+1
00.3
ISAA
C BR
UCE
+101
.9
RAY
LEW
IS
+
183.
3
CHAM
P BA
ILEY
+94
.3
JAH
RI E
VAN
S
+7
5.8
KEVI
N M
AWAE
+91.
2
HIN
ES W
ARD
+
97.4
OWEN
DAN
IELS
+38
.7
DER
RICK
MAS
ON
+
95.3
RAN
DY M
OSS
+11
8.8
12
2
3
Three of our six best picks ever—Ray Lewis, Zach
Thomas and Terrell Owens—came in the 1996 draft. So
did Marvin Harrison (+117.5 Surplus AV), Brian Dawkins (+113.2) and La’Roi Glover (+100.3), making the class
of 1996 the best overall draft we charted.
1 2 3
NO. 4ROGERS
-67.1
NO. 6WADSWORTH
-59.9
NO. 1LEAF-76.0
NO. 2CARTER
-75.0
NO. 5 SHULER
-65.4
THE WORST PICKS ARE …49
ERS
BEAR
S
BENG
ALS
BILL
S
BRON
COS
BROW
NS
BUCC
ANEE
RS
CARD
INAL
S
CHAR
GERS
CHIE
FS
COLT
S
COW
BOYS
DOLP
HINS
EAGL
ES
FALC
ONS
GIAN
TS
JAGU
ARS
JETS
LION
S
PACK
ERS
PANT
HERS
PATR
IOTS
RAID
ERS
RAM
S
RAVE
NS
REDS
KINS
SAIN
TS
SEAH
AWKS
STEE
LERS
TEXA
NS
OILE
RS/T
ITAN
S
VIKI
NGS0
-100
-200
-300
SUR
PLU
S AV
R
EGGI
E M
CGRE
W -
39.0
CU
RTIS
EN
IS -
54.1
K
I-JA
NA
CART
ER -
75.0
MIK
E D.
WIL
LIAM
S -4
0.1
MAR
CUS
NAS
H -
35.7
T
IM C
OUCH
-56
.3
GAIN
ES A
DAM
S -2
5.4
AN
DRE
WAD
SWOR
TH -
59.9
R
YAN
LEA
F -7
6.0
SYL
VEST
ER M
ORRI
S -3
5.6
TREV
ALB
ERTS
-59
.7
D
WAY
NE
GOOD
RICH
-27
.9
YA
TIL
GREE
N -
45.1
BER
NAR
D W
ILLI
AMS
-41.
1
MIC
HAE
L BO
OKER
-42
.8
CED
RIC
JON
ES -
42.7
R. J
AY S
OWAR
D -
34.7
ALE
X VA
N D
YKE
-35.
1
C
HAR
LES
ROGE
RS -
67.1
JAM
AL R
EYN
OLD
S -5
0.3
J
ASON
PET
ER -
38.3
KEVI
N L
EE -
33.2
JAM
ARCU
S RU
SSEL
L -4
9.7
LAW
REN
CE P
HIL
LIPS
-49
.9
DAN
COD
Y -2
3.0
HEA
TH S
HU
LER
-65.
4
J
OHN
ATH
AN S
ULL
IVAN
-46
.0
CHRI
S McI
NTO
SH -
33.9
J
AMAI
N S
TEPH
ENS
-30.
1
DAV
ID C
ARR
-36.
0
BR
YAN
T M
IX -
32.0
T
ROY
WIL
LIAM
SON
-39
.4
2
1
1
3
Yes, it’s possible to have a negative Surplus AV. That’s what happens when the cost outweighs the return—when a player’s on-field play comes up short compared with what was expected of him based on his draft slot. Think first-rounder-turned-benchwarmer- turned-insurance-salesman. Here are each team’s worst draft-day mistakes since 1994. F
RO
M L
EF
T: TOM
DIP
AC
E; G
. NE
WM
AN
LOW
RA
NC
E/A
P IM
AG
ES
; GR
EG
TRO
TT/AP
IMA
GE
S; JA
ME
S D
. SM
ITH/U
SA
TOD
AY S
PO
RTS
; MA
RK
WILS
ON
/AP
IMA
GE
S
Wondering why the Bengals and Browns have postseason
win droughts that stretch back to 1990 and 1994,
respectively? Well, together those franchises compiled four of the 10 worst picks since 1994—Cincinnati’s Ki-Jana Carter (second-
worst pick, -75.0 Surplus AV) and Akili Smith (No. 3, -70.6),
and Cleveland’s Tim Couch (No. 8, -56.3) and Courtney
Brown (No. 9, -56.1).
1
Leaf, the Chargers’ much-ballyhooed No. 2
overall pick out of Washington State in 1998,
had an Expected AV of 78.0. After three seasons, 21
starts and an ungraceful exit from the league, his Career AV was just 2. For
perspective: Mark Sanchez, butt fumble and all, had an
AV of 5 in 2012 alone.
2
Not even Rams Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk (+87.5
Surplus AV) could take the stench off the 1994 draft, our worst. The Redskins’
Heath Shuler (-65.4 Surplus AV) and the Colts’ Trev
Alberts (-59.7), the Nos. 3 and 5 overall picks in ’94, are
two of the seven worst selections we charted.
3