Beyond the Venezuelan National Assembly Elections of
September 21, 2010
Bifurcation of Class & Culture underpin the success
of Hugo Chavez Caracas: Modern & Western?
Caracas: Traditional & Poor
HUGO CHAVEZ CONSOLIDATES POWER
Radicalization and class conflict2001 Ley Habilitante 2002 (April)Coup
attempt2003 Massive
protest marches2004 (August)
Chavez wins recall election
National Assembly of Venezuela following elections
of December 2005 MVR: 139 diputados. Podemos: 20 diputados. Patria Para Todos: 5
diputados. Frente Popular Humanista:
5 diputados.
Partido Comunista de Venezuela: 3 diputados.
Nuevo Camino Revolucionario: 2 diputados.
Afiliación desconocida: 7 diputados.
Federal Legislative Palace: Caracas
Presidential Election 2006 Hugo Chávez vs. Rosales
Manual Rosales
Red Tide takes Caracas
Winner Hugo Chávez Party PSUV
Home state Barinas States carried 24 0
Percentage of Popular Vote62.84% 36.90%
Chávez forms PSUV
On 18 December 2006 – Electoral Council informed of intention to disband the Fifth Republic Movement
Between 29 April and 10 June 2007 a total of 5,669,305 people joined the party,
Represented the 80% of the chavista vote of 2006
Founding Congress PSUV
12 February 2008
Leaders of PSUV
Celia Flores 1st Vice-President
Adan Chavez
Diosdado Cabello
abolish presidential term limits, allowing for indefinite re-election of the president (not allowed for any other political post),
expand social security benefits to workers in the informal economy,
end the autonomy of the central bank, giving control to the president, and place the president in charge of administering the country's international reserves,
prohibit large land estates, while "allowing the state to provisionally occupy property
reduce the maximum working week from 44 to 36 hours and reduce the workday from eight to six hours,
lower the voting age from 18 to 16, increase the presidential term from
six to seven years
reorganize the country's administrative districts
allow the president to control elected state governors and mayors by an unelected “popular power” dependent on the presidency,[19]
,
allow the president to declare an unlimited state of emergency,
prohibit foreign funding for political associations.
allow public funding for political associations.
ban discrimination based on sexual orientation.[20]
Constitutional referendum
2 December, 2007
ResultsYes
(4,379,392) 49.29
No (4,504,354) 50.70
( Por Ahora)
Regional elections: November 23rd, 2008
GovernorsPSUV wins 17 out of
22
Mayors PSUV wins
mayoralties in 80 % of municipios
Opposition Success Consequential (43 % population in states with opposition governors Governor of ZuliaGovernor of MirandaGovernor of Tachira Governor of Carabobo
Turnout 65% Alcalde Mayor of
CaracasAlcalde of Maracaibo
Dist. Metr.
Miranda
Aragua
Cojedes
Carabobo
Guárico
Apure
Falcón
Lara
Portuguesa
YaracuyZulia
Barinas
Mérida
Táchira
Trujillo Anzoátegui
Monagas
Sucre
Nueva Esparta
Bolívar
Delta
Amacuro
Amazonas
..
Morel Rodríguez
Enrique Capriles R (PJ)
Antonio Ledezma (ABP/ AD) Henrique
Salas R. (PV)
Pablo Pérez (UNT)
Cesar Pérez Vivas (COPEI)
The opposition leadership in the Regions
Abolishing Term Limits Referendum
15 February 2009
Widespread opposition when abolition of term limits applied only to president
Gained support when extended to all elected offices
Strengthen Chávez personal power
ResultsVotes
Percentage Yes(54.5%)6,310,482
the 2010 National Assembly ELECTIONS
Composition of the National Assembly of Venezuela
January 2010 PSUV: 139 diputados. Podemos: 20 diputados. Patria Para Todos: 5 diputados. Frente Popular Humanista: 5
diputados. Partido Comunista de
Venezuela: 3 diputados. Nuevo Camino Revolucionario:
2 diputados. Afiliación desconocida: 7
diputados.
Federal Legislative Palace: Caracas
Dist. Metr. Estado
MirandaAragua
Cojedes
Carabobo
Guárico
Apure
Falcón
Lara
Portuguesa
YaracuyZulia
Barinas
Mérida
Táchira
Trujillo
Anzoátegui
Monagas
Sucre
Nueva Esparta
Bolívar
Delta
Amacuro
Amazonas
..
Dependencias Federales
In favor of the Government In favor of the Opposition
< 5,0 < 5,0
5,1 - 10,0 5,1 - 10,0
10,1 - 15,0 10,1 - 15,0
15,1 - 20,0
20,1 - 30,0
30,1 or more
Difference expressed in percentage points
Strengths of the Opposition and the Government ( after 15F)
Opposition strength is in urban centers of medium to high population density.
The government shows to be strong in less urban areas with low to medium population density.
National Assembly Election (perspective immediately following 15 February, 2009)
If the Government and opponents preserve the number of votes obtained in 15F, under the then prevailing electoral law (mixed single member district proportional distribution of seats) the National Assembly would have been ...
57,9%42,1%
Opposition members
(69)*
Government members
(95)*
None of the Parties obtains a super majority (112 seats) it would have been necessary to open spaces of negotiation for approving:
•Enabling laws.
•Organic Laws.
* Does not include indigenous members
Following modification of the Organic Law on Electoral Processes : where the new electoral regulations decrease number of seats allocated by proportional distribution, the situation expected would be different (keeping as a basis of calculation the results of 15F) …
70,8%
29,2%
Opposition members
(48)*
Government members
(116)*
The Government Party obtains the super majority and can approve:
•Enabling laws•Organic Laws
Spaces of discussions are not needed for parliamentary negotiations.
National Assembly Election Projected Outcome: January 2010
* Does not include indigenous members (3 members)
Chavismo45%
Oposición42%
13%
Consolidated Distribution Of Public Opinion
Tendencia Actitudinalde los Neutrales
4%
5%13%
Distribution of Partisan Opinion: embedded dynamism
Chavistas40%
Opositores38%
Neutrales22%
Classical Distribution “Chavistas, Opositoresy Neutrales”
KELLER y Asoc.: Estudio Nacional de Opinión Pública, n = 1.200 , 2do. Trimestre de 2008
Chavistas acríticos o que compartenlas iniciativas del oficialismo
Chavistas críticos que no compartenlas iniciativas del oficialismo
Neutrales “puros”
Opositores Blandos
In Depth Distribution
16%
38%
13%
29%
4%
Opositores Duros
Mesa de la Unidad: coordination to Maximize
Opposition Representation in the National Assembly
Un Nuevo Tiempo Center-left/Social
Democratic Core support in ZuliaManuel Rosales in
exile
Primero Justicia Center-rightElected 5 members to
National Assembly in 2000
Core support – middle class of Caracas
Julio Borges Proyecto Venezuela
CenteristCore support in
CaraboboHenrique Salas Feo
From the (Punto Fijo) regimePodemos Acción DemocráticaCOPEI
Venezuelan parliamentary election, 2010
In Play: All 165 seats to the National Assembly
Turnout 66.45%
Majority
partyMinority
partyThird party
Party PSUV MUD PPT
Last election (2005) 139 6 5
Seats won (2010) 96 64 2
Seat change -43 +58 3
Popular vote 5,451,422 5,334,309 354,677
Percentage 48.20% 47.17% 3.14%
Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
Party FPH PCV Independent
Last election 5 3 9
Steps THAT Chávez and opposition officials can take to address escalating crime, economic, and infra-
structure problems?
To understand the actions that the government may adopt in the economic area in 2010/2011 it is important to ask:
1.- How long will the crisis last?
2.- What funds are available to tackle it at lowest cost?
56.2
73.0
86.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
USD
/B
SOURCE: OPEC, Reuters
Average Annual Price of Oil Barrel
OIL PRICES: View Before 2011 Outbreak of Unrest in Arab World
ProjectionsVenezuelan basket
Reuters regularly asks about 30 oil analysts for their forecasts of the oil price.
SOURCE: Reuters
45
62
75
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2009 2010 2011
ProjectionsWTI
What would be the government’s room for maneuver?
Cash Flow Reserves and funds
Fixed Assets
• US$42 billion oil revenue.
• US$35.9 billion tax revenue.
TOTALUS$ 77.90 billion
• US$29.93 billion international reserves + FEM.
• US$16.00 billion FONDEN.
• US$6.00 billion Chinese fund.
• US$5.00 billion other funds.
TOTALUS$56.93 billion
• US$9.50 billion CITGO (Source: New York Times).
What to expect in economics (2011)
Delays in the real economical adjustments
Decreases in public investments
Imports hierarchy: more inflation
Mistrust of the private sector and banking
Intense monitoring of the supply issues
U.S. Dependence on foreign Petroleum :Chavez’s
Salvation? U.S. imports Total crude
oil imports averaged 9,069 thousand barrels per day in January, 2011
951,000 barrels per day: Venezuela provides to USA
2011: Price on oil increases
Nymex crude oil price, short term futures (May 2011 delivery) is traded at 107.29 USD
Venezuelan oil (April 2011), $100 barrel
Unrest in Arab World
China/India rising demand
What to expect in politics (2011-12)
Popular Opposition Candidates Disqualified
Throttling of
remaining independent press
New Restrictions on Freedom of Speech?
Replacement of National Assembly with Communal Assembly?
Oswaldo Alvarez Paz (jailed for speaking his mind)