1. Building the Weather to Climate Bridge Across Jamaica:
implications for future re-engineering. Teddy Allen Post-Doctoral
Scientist The International Research Institute for Climate and
Society [email protected]
3. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE Jamaican climate (rainfall)
Climate knowledge is important: Supports cropping calendars Helps
to determine specific crops to plant Hurricane awareness
4. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE WEATHER ? The current state
of the atmosphere
5. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE Jamaican weather (rainfall)
What causes rainfall in Jamaica during the early rain season?
IMPORTANCE OF EARLY RAIN SEASON: cessation of dry season first
stage of seasonal agriculture provides economic prosperity
conditions seasonal water levels offsets possible drought What
causes it? Can we predict it?
6. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE Rethinking Jamaican rainfall
early rain season July Upper level westerly winds April early rain
season Atmospheric water vapor Panama Low during the early rain
season
7. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE May 20, 2011 2011 hr May
20,2011 accumulation of weather events DAILY MONTHLY
8. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE 2012 satellite based rainfall
(early rain season) 2012 satellite based accumultaed rainfall
(early rain season)
10. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE Jamaican weather to climate
bridge: the Caribbean rain-belt Caribbean Rain Belt (Car-belt) ( an
average of all of the ERS rainfall accumulations from 1999-2014 )
Daily rainfall seasonal totals average of seasonal totals
climatological rain-belt
11. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE Climate Change and the
Caribbean Rain-Belt end of century projections Sea Surface
TemperatureSurface Air Temperature Rainfall warmer air warmer sea
surface more available moisture DRIER??? We can expect a change in
circulation that weakens the uplift environment.
13. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE How will the climatological
bi-modal rainfall pattern and the Caribbean rain-belt change in
time? WHATWEEXPECTPOSSIBLFUTURE Farmers and water resource managers
may need to adapt to fewer weather events during the wet
season.
14. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE CONCLUSIONS Current late
spring rainfall climate results from expected weather events caused
by a combination of upper level uplift dynamics and lower level
moisture steered by the Panama Low The long term average of these
weather events produces the Caribbean Rain- Belt End of century
projected rainfall suggests about 20% reduction in annual rainfall
totals with much greater reduction during the summer months A shift
in expectation of weather events must occur to prepare for possible
climate change scenarios Fruitful collaboration and discussions
with: UWI, Jamaican Meteorological Service, Brian Mapes, IRI, CIMH,
CaribSave