C. Drews, L. Hawkes, N. Bood and J. Hoffman
WWF - Programa Marino y de Especies
para Latinoamérica y el Caribe
Climate change challenges to marine ecosystems in the Western Hemisphere
Methane load of the atmosphere
WHMSI III - Asunción 2008
The good news: The good news: Conservation works!Conservation works!
……well, does it really?well, does it really?
… … a matter of time-scale …a matter of time-scale …
……well, does it really?well, does it really?
… … a matter of time-scale …a matter of time-scale …
Climate Change - how does it affect Climate Change - how does it affect marine biodiversity?marine biodiversity?
• Increasing ambient and SST• Sea level rise• Acidification, salinity changes and O2
• Alterations in oceanic currents• Intensity and frequency of extreme weather events
– (e.g. rainfall, drought, storms and hurricanes)• (UV radiation via link with temperature) - JENNY
Iguazu - WWF Carlos Drews
Proyecciones regionales (IPCC)
Figure
Figure 11.15
Annual mean, DJF and JJA temp and precipitation change between 1980 to 1999 and 2080 to 2099
A CLIMATE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN
Annual precipitation
Source: Hulme & Sheard 1999 WWF and CRU
Even if the world community succeeds in reducing CO2 emissions from 2015 onwards, ocean levels will rise by between 0.40 to 1.40 meters, maybe not in the 21st century, but a bit later.
IPCC head Rajendra Pachauri, Spiegel, 19 November, 2007
Cancún - desde 57 km
2 m - aumento del nivel del mar en Cancún - desde 57 km
2 m - aumento del nivel del mar en Yucatán - desde 587 km
Source: Holland & Webster 2007
Impacts of climate change
- Fish
- Coral reefs
- Marine turtles
-Changes in abundance and Changes in abundance and distribution distribution
- Some tropical waters - Some tropical waters empoverished empoverished
What are the impacts on fish?What are the impacts on fish?
Implications to food security and coastal economies.
Present: SBT, CSIRO Mk3
Slide by Alistair Hobday - CSIRO
2100: SBT, CSIRO Mk3
Slide by Alistair Hobday - CSIRO
Source: Cesar, Burke & Pet-Soede 2003 (WWF-ICRAN) Economics of reef degradation.
Source: Cesar, Burke & Pet-Soede 2003.
Warmer SST - impacts to coral reefs
WWF / Cat Holloway
WWF / Melanie McField
2005• Hottest year since
records (1880)• Record: hurricane
frequency (13) and intensity (Wilma)
• 50-100% bleaching• Disease followed
bleaching• Mortality: US Virgin
Islands 52%, T&T 73% in some colonies
The future• Unknown increase in
thermal tolerance
• “Committed” thermal stress next 20-30 years
• Optimistic forecast: low intensity bleaching (> 2oC
DHM) every 2 years by 2050s.
• Annual severe bleaching if business as usual
Source: Wilkinson & Souter 2008
• More intense storms
Observed climate change impacts in Belize
Hurricane Iris 2000
Elevated sea temperatures = bleaching
Climate change impacts in Belize
Southern lagoon reef 1998 Reef death in 1998 (95%)
• Flooding with damage to properties
Climate change impacts in Belize
The cost of inaction
• Overall, in the Caribbean, climate change is predicted to cause an annual loss of US$ 109.9 million in terms of increased sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise and loss of species among others, which equates to 13.8% of the total GDP
Source: Tol, R.S.J. (1997) A Decision-Analytic Treatise of the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect. PhD Thesis, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Money talks: how much is a Money talks: how much is a marine turtle worth?marine turtle worth?
A marine turtle is worth more alive than deadA marine turtle is worth more alive than dead
NON- CONSUMPTIVE USENON- CONSUMPTIVE USECONSUMPTIVE USECONSUMPTIVE USE
By Sebastian Troëng and Carlos Drews (2004)By Sebastian Troëng and Carlos Drews (2004)
Marine turtle tourism in the Western Hemisphere
• Barbados, Brazil, Cayman Islands, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Grenada, Guyana, Mexico, Panama, Puerto Rico, St Lucia, St Vincent, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago, USA (Florida), …
• 15 nations, at least 50 sites, and increasing …
Healthy EcosystemHealthy Ecosystem
Vital EconomyVital Economy
Social Well-BeingSocial Well-Being
FinancialFinancial
PoliticalPolitical
SocialSocialHumanHuman
BuiltBuilt
NaturalNatural
CulturalCultural
•Two thirds of countries with developing economies have marine turtles
•175,000 turtle tourists / year, 175,000 turtle tourists / year, more than 90 sites in more than 40 countries.
• 2002 - US$ 6.7 mio in Tortuguero (235 2002 - US$ 6.7 mio in Tortuguero (235 guides, 26.292 visitors)guides, 26.292 visitors)
• 1,280 employees (60% female) in Brazil by 1,280 employees (60% female) in Brazil by Projeto TAMAR Projeto TAMAR (merchandizing & tourism)(merchandizing & tourism)
• Gross revenue 3 x higher for use of turtle Gross revenue 3 x higher for use of turtle alive than deadalive than dead
Marine turtles: a driver of cash incomeMarine turtles: a driver of cash income
BEACHES - a prime asset for tourism
Myrtle Beach - WWF Carlos Drews
Marejada en Junquillal - WWF/ Gabriel Francia
25oC
27oC
34oC
32oC
29oC
Temperature Sex Determination
Climate change causes sex ratio biases and mortalityClimate change causes sex ratio biases and mortality
Época seca
Predicción del porcentaje de sexos en
los diferentes puntos
Más machos
Más hembras
100 % hembras
Desnaturalización de los huevos
WWF Carlos Drews
Fuente: Micaela Peña-Mosquera 2006
Third generation conservation
- Threats are “God given” agents
- New challenges / knowledge / capacity gaps
- Resilience: a new perspective on mitigation of non-climate stressors
- Adapting people and ecosystems to the inevitable
- Crystal ball driven