TMX EquicomVancouver
May 23, 2014
Siren Fisekci
VP, Investor & Corporate Relations
Canadian Oil Sands Limited
Scott Arnold
Director, Sustainability & External Relations
Canadian Oil Sands Limited
Forward-looking InformationIn the interest of providing you with information regarding Canadian Oil Sands Limited (the “Corporation”), including management’s assessment of the Corporation’s future plans and operations, certain statements
and graphs throughout this presentation contain forward-looking information and forward-looking statements (collectively referred to as “forward-looking statements”) under applicable securities laws. Forward-
looking statements are typically identified by words such as “anticipate”, “expect”, “believe”, “plan”, “intend” or similar words suggesting future outcomes. Forward-looking statements in this presentation include,
but are not limited to, statements and graphs with respect to: the estimated value and amount of reserves recoverable and the time frame to recover such reserves; the estimated resources; plans regarding crude
oil hedges in the future; the expected impact on cash flow from operations and cash flow from operations per share from increasing/decreasing crude oil prices; future dividends and any increase or decrease from
current payment amounts; the expected sales volume in 2014; the expected operating expenses in 2014; the expected cash flow from operations and cash flow from operations per share in 2014; the expected
realized selling price for the Corporation’s product in 2014; all expectations regarding net debt; the belief that Syncrude production can grow from demonstrated levels through improved reliability initiatives, while
at the same time reducing maintenance and repair costs; the expected impact on cash flow from operations from increasing Syncrude production; the anticipated benefits of wet crushing technology; the belief that
retrofitting Syncrude’s centrifuges should improve bitumen quality and extraction capacity; the plans to improve the run length of the hydrotreaters; the views on future additional utilities at Syncrude; the expected
amount of total major project costs, anticipated target in-service dates and estimated completion percentages for the Mildred Lake mine train replacements and the centrifuge plant at the Mildred Lake mine; the
expectation that capital expenditures will significantly decline post 2014; the anticipated reliability improvements resulting from the Mildred Lake mine train replacements; the expectations regarding the timing of
planned/announced market access pipelines; the Corporation’s views on future oil prices; the views on future demand for oil and global energy use; all expectations regarding the synthetic crude oil (“SCO”) and
West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) and Brent differentials; the expectations regarding the 2014 annual Syncrude forecasted production range of 95 million barrels to 105 million barrels and the single-point Syncrude
production estimate of 100 million barrels (36.7 million barrels net to the Corporation); the timing and duration of the Coker 8-2 turnaround; the expectations regarding the maintenance on Coker 8-1; the expected
benefits of the management services agreement with Imperial Oil; and Crown royalties payable in the future.
You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, as there can be no assurance that the plans, intentions or expectations upon which they are based will occur. By their nature,
forward-looking statements involve numerous assumptions, known and unknown risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, that contribute to the possibility that the predictions, forecasts, projections and
other forward-looking statements will not occur. Although the Corporation believes that the assumptions and expectations represented by such forward-looking statements are reasonable and reflect the current
views of the Corporation with respect to future events, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and expectations will prove to be correct.
The factors or assumptions on which the forward-looking statements are based include, but are not limited to: the assumptions outlined in the Corporation’s guidance document as posted on the Corporation’s
website at www.cdnoilsands.com as of the date hereof and as subsequently amended or replaced from time to time, including without limitation, the assumptions as to production, operating expenses and oil
prices; the successful and timely implementation of capital projects; Syncrude’s major project spending plans; the ability to obtain regulatory and joint venture owner approval; our ability to either generate sufficient
cash flow from operations to meet our current and future obligations or obtain external sources of debt and equity capital; the continuation of assumed tax, royalty and regulatory regimes and the accuracy of the
estimates of our reserves and resources volumes.
Some of the risks and other factors which could cause actual results or events to differ materially from current expectations expressed in the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation include, but
are not limited to: volatility of crude oil prices; volatility of the SCO to WTI differential; the impact that pipeline capacity and apportionment and refinery demand have on prices for SCO; the impacts of regulatory
changes especially those which relate to royalties, taxation, tailings, water and the environment; the impact of new technologies on the cost of oil sands mining; the impacts of rising costs associated with tailings
and water management; the inability of Syncrude to obtain required consents, permits or approvals, including without limitation, the inability of Syncrude to obtain approval to release water from its operations; the
impact of Syncrude being unable to meet the conditions of its approval for its tailings management plan under Directive 074; various events which could disrupt operations including fires, equipment failures and
severe weather; unsuccessful or untimely implementation of capital or maintenance projects; the impact of technology on operations and processes and how new complex technology may not perform as
expected; the obtaining of required joint venture owner approvals from the Syncrude owners for expansions, operational issues and contractual issues; labour turnover and shortages and the productivity achieved
from labour in the Fort McMurray area; uncertainty of estimates with respect to reserves and resources; the supply and demand metrics for oil and natural gas; the variances of stock market activities generally;
currency and interest rate fluctuations; volatility of natural gas prices; the Corporation’s inability to either generate sufficient cash flow from operations to meet our current and future obligations or obtain external
sources of debt and equity capital; general economic, business and market conditions and such other risks and uncertainties described in the Corporation’s Annual Information Form dated February 20, 2014 and
in the reports and filings made with securities regulatory authorities from time to time by the Corporation which are available on the Corporation’s profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and on the Corporation’s
website at www.cdnoilsands.com.
You are cautioned that the foregoing list of important factors is not exhaustive. Furthermore, the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are made as of the date of this presentation and unless
required by law, the Corporation does not undertake any obligation to update publicly or revise any of the included forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.
In this presentation we refer to additional GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures that do not have any standardized meaning as prescribed by Canadian Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“GAAP”).
We refer to additional GAAP financial measures such as cash flow from operations, cash flow from operations on a per share basis and net debt. For more information on additional GAAP financial measures
please refer to our 2013 Annual Management’s Discussion and Analysis which is available on the Corporation’s profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and on the Corporation’s website at www.cdnoilsands.com. In
this presentation we also refer to non-GAAP financial measures such as free cash flow, return on equity, enterprise value and earnings before interest and taxes. For more information on free cash flow and return
on equity (referred to as return on average shareholders’ equity in our 2013 Annual Report) please refer to our 2013 Annual Report, which is available on the Corporation’s profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com
and on the Corporation’s website at www.cdnoilsands.com. Enterprise value and earnings before interest and taxes are discussed in this presentation.
Third party information: To the extent that information contained in this presentation, forward-looking or otherwise, has been derived from third party sources such as First Energy, Bloomberg, the International
Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration, the US Department of Energy, Environment Canada and the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, the Corporation makes no representations
or warranties, express or implied, as to the quality, accuracy and completeness of such information.
COS is a pure play on the Syncrude project
Canadian Oil Sands(COS)
25%
Suncor
Sinopec
36.74%
12%
Nexen(CNOOC)
7.23%
Murphy Oil
Mocal
5%
Imperial Oil
XOM/IMO provide global best practices, proprietary systems and staff expertise
JV ownership structure
Syncrude: A High Quality Resource
• Established production base
• Long-life reserves
• Fully upgraded light, sweet
crude oil
• Proven operator and proven
technology
• Predictable reservoir recovery
– over 90%
1.6
5.1
2.2
2.3
Prospective resources
Contingent resources
Probable - Undeveloped
Proved plus Probable - Producing
Large Syncrude Reserve and Resource
Base Supports Decades of Production
Billions of Synthetic Crude Oil Barrels
1. All amounts gross to Syncrude. Canadian Oil Sands Limited, through its wholly-owned partnership, holds a 36.74% interest in the Syncrude Project. Based on independent reserves and resources estimates by GLJ Petroleum Consultants, Ltd. as of Dec. 31/13. See reserves and resources cautionary advisory in Canadian Oil Sands’ Annual Information Form dated Feb. 20/14 and the definitions and forward-looking information advisory.
2. Calculated as Proved Developed Producing Reserves of 2.0 billion barrels plus Probable Producing Reserves of 0.3 billion barrels. Probable Producing Reserves calculated as Total Probable Reserves of 923 million barrels (net to COS) less Probable Undeveloped Reserves of 812 million barrels (net to COS) equals 111 million barrels (net to COS) or 0.3 billion barrels (100% Syncrude).
3. Calculated as 812 million barrels (net to COS) grossed up to reflect 100% Syncrude.4. Reserve Life Index (RLI) based on COS April 30, 2014 Guidance of approximately 100 million barrels per year of Syncrude production (36.7 million barrels net to COS).
• Mildred Lake
Extension
• Other leases
• Other leases
•Aurora South
• Mildred Lake
• Aurora NorthRLI= 23 years 4
2
3
1
RLI= 22 years 4
Syncrude is a Leader in Sustainable
Oil Sands Development
Recognition
Reflects industry best practices
• Mining Association – Toward Sustainable Mining
• Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers – Responsible Canadian Energy Program
• Canadian Council for Aboriginal Business – Progress Aboriginal Relations Program
• Canadian Business for Social Responsibility
• Canadian Industry Program for Energy Conservation
Leading Research and Development
• Syncrude operates the industry’s only dedicated R&D centre
• Syncrude spends $60 million on R&D each year; one of Top 50 spenders in Canada
• Syncrude is a founding member of Canadian Oil Sands Network for Research and Development (CONRAD) and the Oil Sands Tailings Consortium (OSTC), which will be managed under the recently formed Canadian Oil Sands Industry Alliance (COSIA)
CSR Reporting• Syncrude publishes a bi-annual sustainability report
www.syncrudesustainability.com• Also publishes an annual Aboriginal Review
Pure Play Oil Sands Investment
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
COS
Canadian Natural
Cenovus
Imperial
MEG
Suncor
Oil sands as % of total production
Source: FirstEnergy Capital Nov. 8/13 report
Our production is 100% light, sweet crude oil
Highly Leveraged to Increasing Crude Oil Prices1
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
$70 $80 $90 $100 $110
Illustrative cash flow from operations ($/share)2
WTI (US$/bbl)
2014 estimate
All figures in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted.
1. Every US $1.00/bbl WTI increase/decrease in crude oil price increases/reduces cash flow from operations/share by $0.05 after tax; see April 30/14 Guidance
for other sensitivities; this assumes no other changes to operating expenses or other assumptions from the April 30/14 Guidance; see the risk factors outlined in
our Annual Information Form dated Feb. 20/14 as to other risks; for illustrative purposes only – COS is not expressing a particular view on crude oil prices.
2. Additional GAAP measure; assumes April 30/14 Guidance of: $0.92 US$/Cdn$ FX, $4/bbl SCO discount to Cdn$WTI, $46.08/bbl operating expenses and
sales of approximately 100,700 bbl/d net to COS.
Dividends Reflect Free Cash Flow Over Time (1,2)
(1) Includes distributions on trust units prior to Dec. 31/10(2) Free cash flow (FCF) is cash flow from operations less capital expenditures and is a non-GAAP measure
Cumulative Dividends/FCFAnnual Total Dividends
$ millions
$(1,000)
$-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$(300)
$-
$300
$600
$900
$1,200
$1,500
$1,800
$2,100
$2,400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Dividends
CumulativeDividends
Cumulative FCF
COS INVESTMENT CATALYSTS
Syncrude’s path to
PRODUCTION GROWTH
Operating Leverage
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F
Syncrude production
Thousand barrels per day
2014F based on April 30/14 Outlook.
Average production of 287,000 bbl/d since 2007
Every 2 million bbl change in 2014 Syncrude production
impacts cash flow from operations by $44 million
Reliability Initiatives Across The Operation
Completing Syncrude’s
MAJOR PROJECTS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Centrifuge Tailings Management
Mildred Lake Mine Train Replacement
Aurora North Tailings Management
Aurora North Mine Relocation
Major Projects Capital Expenditure Profile
$ millions, net to Canadian Oil Sands
Capital costs only; excludes capitalized interest and certain development costs.
Mildred Lake Mine Train Replacements (MLMR)
Currently 85% complete
Expected in-service date of
Q4 2014
Cost estimates revised
downward to $3.9 billion from
$4.2 billion (gross to Syncrude)
Tightened range around cost
estimate to +5% / -10%
(1) Total project costs are net COS’ 36.74% working interest and include both capital and certain development expenses; costs
exclude capitalized interest.
(2) The estimated percentage complete is based on hours spent as a percentage of total forecasted hours to project completion.
Centrifuge Tailings Management Project
Currently 75% complete
Expected in-service date of first
half of 2015
Cost estimate remains at $1.9
billion (gross to Syncrude)
Range around the cost estimate
remains at +15% / -15%
(1) Total project costs are net COS’ 36.74% working interest and include both capital and certain development expenses; costs
exclude capitalized interest.
(2) The estimated percentage complete is based on hours spent as a percentage of total forecasted hours to project completion.
MARKETSAccessing new
Quality and Location Differentials
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
Trailing 3-Month Average
Brent
SCO
WTI
WCS
Bitumen
Cdn $/bbl
Kitimat
Hardisty
Edmonton
Burnaby
Cushing
Montreal
Houston
Sarnia
Patoka
Quebec City
Markets for COS’ Syncrude Production
Chicago
Syncrude
Current synthetic crude oil markets
Potential new markets
“Wells-to-wheels” CO2 Emissions
Source: IHS CERA Special Report – Oil Sands Dialogue: Oil Sands, Greenhouse Gases, and US Oil Supply: Getting the Numbers Right, November 2012
Average oil
sands is
only 9%
more GHG
intensive
than
average
U.S. barrel
Environmental Regulations
• Alberta has a carbon levy– Provincial regulations require a 12% reduction in emission intensity, or:
– Pay $15/tonne levy into an environmental technology fund
– Purchase Alberta based offset credits
• Land reclamation– Alberta law requires land reclamation to productivity equal to or better than original
– Directive 074 - requirements to reduce tailings and accelerate reclamation
• Water use– All existing and approved oil sands projects restricted to withdraw less than 3% of
average annual flow of Athabasca River
– Further restrictions during low flow periods
– Actual usage by industry less than 1% of average annual flow
• Accelerating the pace of environmental performance through
collaboration and innovation
• Pooling budgets
• Sharing collective expertise
• Avoid duplicating research
• COSIA member companies have shared 560 distinct
technologies and innovations, that cost over $900 Million to
develop*
* as of January 2014
Canada’s Oil Sands Innovation Alliance
LONG-TERM OIL PRICESThe market’s view of
$75
$80
$85
$90
$95
$100
$105
$110
Jun
-14
Aug-1
4
Oct-
14
Dec-1
4
Feb
-15
Apr-
15
Jun
-15
Aug-1
5
Oct-
15
Dec-1
5
Feb
-16
Apr-
16
Jun
-16
Aug-1
6
Oct-
16
Dec-1
6
Feb
-17
Apr-
17
Jun
-17
Aug-1
7
Oct-
17
De
c-1
7
Feb
-18
Apr-
18
Jun
-18
Aug-1
8
Oct-
18
Dec-1
8
Feb
-19
Apr-
19
Jun
-19
Aug-1
9
Oct-
19
Dec-1
9
WTI Forward Prices1
1) Source: Bloomberg, April 23, 2014
Approximate global average
supply cost = $100/bbl
Production Declines Dramatically
Without Further Investment
Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2013;
Production declines from all currently producing fields in the absence of further investment.
COS Investment Catalysts
1. Production growth through improved reliability
2. Completion of remaining major projects
• Mildred Lake Mine Replacement (MLMR)
• Tailings Centrifuge Project
3. Market access
• Narrowing of SCO-WTI-Brent differentials
4. Market view of long-term oil prices
These four catalysts
represent potential to
improve total shareholder
return
Plus, COS offers:
Solid finance plan and
a strong balance
sheet
Currently,
approximately 6%
yield
Appendix
Follow us:
Twitter @cdnoilsands
www.cdnoilsands.com/blog
COS: a Premier Pure-play Oil Sands Investment
• Ticker: COS on Toronto Stock Exchange
• Shares outstanding: 484.6 million
• 52 week high / low / close1: $24.46 / $18.85 / $22.95
• Market cap: $11.1 billion1
• Enterprise value: $12.5 billion2
• Quarterly dividend amount: $0.35 per share3
• High dividend payout: 6.2%4
All figures in Canadian dollars1. As at May 5/14.2. As at May 5/14 and net debt at March 31/14; non-GAAP measure.3. To be paid on May 30/14 to shareholders of record on May 23/14.4. Based on close price as at May 5/14 and dividend announced on April 30/14, annualized.
COS has Significantly Outperformed the
Market Over the Long-term
Source: Bloomberg
Average compound annual return
14%
10%
8%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
De
c-0
3
Apr-
04
Aug-0
4
De
c-0
4
Apr-
05
Aug-0
5
De
c-0
5
Apr-
06
Aug-0
6
De
c-0
6
Apr-
07
Aug-0
7
De
c-0
7
Apr-
08
Aug-0
8
De
c-0
8
Apr-
09
Aug-0
9
De
c-0
9
Apr-
10
Aug-1
0
De
c-1
0
Apr-
11
Aug-1
1
De
c-1
1
Apr-
12
Aug-1
2
De
c-1
2
Apr-
13
Aug-1
3
De
c-1
3
10 Year Cumulative Return as of December 31, 2013
Canadian Oil Sands
S&P/TSX Oil & Gas
S&P/TSX Composite
Premium Product and Competitive Operating
Costs Result in Significant Margin Advantage
Average premium of $11/bbl translated to $2.5B total advantage since 2008
Realized price advantagevs. Competitor “A”
Operating cost advantage/ disadvantage vs. Competitor “A”
Gross margin advantage
Source: Company “A” data based on publicly available information.Sales and operating costs are volume-weighted and use a four-quarter trailing average
Syncrude margin advantage over nearest competitor
$(6.00)
$(4.00)
$(2.00)
$-
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00
$18.00
$20.00
$22.00
$(6.00)
$(4.00)
$(2.00)
$-
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00
$18.00
$20.00
$22.00
Syncrude Upgrader Delivers Significant Value
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
COS Mining Peer Mining &SAGD Peer
TypicalSAGD Peer
Operating expenses, G&A, Royaltiesand other
Depreciation
Earnings before interest and taxes
per bbl
1. Data for the year ended December 31, 2013 for COS, CNRL Horizon Cash Production Costs, Cenovus Operating, MEG Net Operating Costs, Suncor Total Cash Operating Costs
2. SAGD based on volume-weighted average of Cenovus (Christina Lake and Foster Creek), MEG and Suncor In-situ3. “Other” for COS and Suncor refers to non-prod. or dev. costs, MEG is share-based comp and R&D, CNRL is share-based comp and Cenovus is research4. COS operating expenses include Syncrude G&A5. Earnings before interest and taxes is a non-GAAP financial measure. Calculated as net income plus tax and net finance expenses plus FX gain (loss)
COS EBIT~ $35/bbl
1, 4
1
1, 2
3
5
1
Demonstrating Strong Return on
Shareholders’ Equity
Average ROE of 24% since 2001
Return on Equity calculated as net income divided by average shareholders’ equity; Net income as per COS’ financial statements
Return on shareholders’ equity is a non-GAAP measure.
$-
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Re
turn
Canadian Oil Sands' ROE
Return on Equity
Average ROE of 24%
Average Share Price
Syncrude Crown Royalty Terms*
• Greater of 25% net bitumen revenue less capital and operating costs, or 1% of
gross bitumen revenue*
– Previously based on Synthetic Crude Oil (upgraded from bitumen) revenues
and costs
• Repay $1.25 billion plus interest over 25 years for previously deducted
upgrader growth capital
– Payments deferred during 1% royalty periods
• Pay an additional $975 million in royalties as per schedule:
– Amount will be prorated to extent Syncrude daily average bitumen production over 6-
year period less than 345 KBPD
* Terms and rates effective Jan. 1/09 to Dec. 31/15. The royalty agreements are available on the Corporation’s profile at www.sedar.com. Effective Jan. 1/16 New Royalty Framework rates apply.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total
$75 mm $75 mm $100 mm $150 mm $225 mm $350 mm $975 mm
All figures gross to Syncrude
2014 Crown Royalty Calculation
1. Bitumen revenue is based on an SCO yield of 87% and a bitumen price equal to 60% of C$WTI.2. Royalty rate is the greater of 25% of net revenue or 1% of revenue.3. As part of the transition to the generic royalty regime, Syncrude is obligated to pay additional Crown Royalties of $975 million over 2010-
2015. The $54 million shown above is COS’ share of the 2014 expense based on accrual accounting; actual cash payments are per the schedule on previous slide. In any given year, the difference will be reflected as a change in Crown royalty payable.
See COS’ 2013 Annual MD&A dated Feb. 20/14 for further discussion on Crown royalties.
Based on 2014 Outlook provided Apr. 30/14
SCO % Mining Bitumen
Revenue1 3,528 2,534
Operating expenses (1,693) 80% (1,354)
Non-production costs (176) 80% (141)
Capital expenditures (842) 85% (716)
Net revenue 323
Crown royalty2 81
Upgrader growth capital recapture payment 25
Additional Crown royalty expense3 54
Total Crown royalty 160
Crown royalty (per bbl) $4.35