德国慕尼黑联邦国防大学、荷兰莱顿大学 CeTIM 董事长 • Prof. Dr. Bernhard Katzy holds a PhD
in industrial management from the University of Technology (RWTH) Aachen in Germany and a second PhD (habilitation) in general management from University of St. Gallen, Switzerland. He is lecturing MBA and Executive MBA courses at leading European business schools, e.g. St. Gallen University, Rotterdam School of Management, European Business School and ESADE Barcelona. He is professor at the University BW Munich and at the University of Leiden. He is the founder of CeTIM – Center for Technology and Innovation Management, which is located at University Bw Munich and Leiden University School of Management. His research interest is about entrepreneurial management of fast growing high-tech firms and the emerging industrial structures for the information age.
Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015
移动与数字融合成长曲线 2015
Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy, CeTIM Xiaofeng Ma, CeTIM
CeTIM.org
Presentation Outline
• ROADiBROM introduction
• Scenario of Future Media Industry Structure
• the ROADiBROM workshops
ROADiBROM isa joint European – China strategic roadmap about “Mobile and digital broadcasting convergence ”
The objective is to:develop a strategic roadmap for R&D priorities until 2015 in Europe and China.
Intended Outcome:Joint Europe and China Think-tank on digital convergence(NEM International Cooperation)
Funded by European Commission (IST-045437: ROADIBROM – SSA)
Background of Roadibrom
A balanced EU-China Project Consortium
Why digital convergence?
Media convergence
– Video – Voice – Data
Device convergence:
– Computer – TV – Mobile Phone
Technology Push:
Business & Societal Impact:
Changes of Individual livingEmerging business modelsImpact on society
Investigating:• What will the
converged world looks like?
• What are the critical choices we confront with?
• How to take the opportunities of the new emerging industry?
China has been increasing its role in the high tech industries,
e.g. 3G, Wireless Communication, and Mobile digital broadcasting etc.
China does not have a national standard for Mobile digital broadcasting
China verified as a big market for the mobile phone (480 Million users 2006)
The metropolian cities in China (e.g. Shanghai, Beijing) are ideal location for the deployment of mobile multimedia services.
Why China?
Strategic dialogue between EU and China is important NOW
Media Industry at the verge of disruptive change?!
Will it happen or not?How will it happen?What will come out?
(Moore 1991)
Disruptive Innovationimplies change of institutions, firms, industries…
Time
Rate ofInnovation
Process Innovation
ProductInnovation
FluidPattern
TransitionalPattern
SpecificPattern
Dominant Design
THE ABERNATHY MODEL OF DOMINANT DESIGN
Industry level change
20152007
Technology (Product) Innovation DECREASE,
Business and institutional Change just START!
How specific patterns look like? How they are developed?
Governments:
• Need to change of focus of R&D funding from technology development to social and service innovation
Companies:
• Incumbent probably disappear if no effective strategic change actions • entrants will emerge
What does it imply for Governments and industries
Signs:
• Nokia and Siemens carve out the network and phone business• Nokia is becoming a media company• Google is regarded as the most valuable media company though• not produce any content itself
Roadmap is a strategic management tool for International Innovation
Scenario
- Make expectations (hopes and fears) explicit
- Judge on likely hood of alternative scenarios
- Analyze implications
Identify gap between state-of-art and the specific Pattern
Time order Gaps (and R&D actions)= roadmap
The specific Pattern
Relevant dimensions of transformation
1. Present Critical R&D challenges from China and European stakeholders
2. Strategic dialogue between workshop participants about the critical R&D issues (transformation process)
Workshop Objective
Presentation Outline
• ROADiBROM introduction
• Scenario of Future Media Industry Structure
• the ROADiBROM workshops
Technology view: • Seamless network(s) converge voice, video and data • in an invisible way for users, who will be able to • access services anywhere and anyhow.
User view: • Communities of users supported by • community coaches will become most active in • user centric service offerings with • renowned brands,
Future Media Industry Scenario
Device view:
•Ambient and context sensitive (sensor) will make devices “disappear” towards wearable /mobile miniature.
Value Chain View:
• Network / Telecom operators offer infrastructure, • Broadcasters will mutate in community coaches,• Content production cost will disappear with “crowd sourcing” and therefore DRM will vanish. • Advertisement will mutate from campaign design to managing 1-to-1 communications, which• will fund communities and dedicated professional content production
Future Media Industry Scenario
Early Examples of of a digital converged world
Execution Saddam Hussein
Technology:- Filmed with mobile phone- Distributed within hours by YouTube
Industry Change:- Production cost “Zero”- Distributions cost “Zero”- No journalist involved:
freedom of interpretation / uncontrollable- No broadcasting stations
Presentation Outline
• ROADiBROM introduction
• Scenario of Future Media Industry Structure
• the ROADiBROM workshops
The Brussels workshop on 11th Oct
35 participants from 10 Countries, discussed the critical challenges:
•Technology and Device•Value Chain and Service
The Shanghai workshop on 2nd and 3rd Nov
70 participants, discussing the critical challenges from•Technology and device•Service and Value Chain
The Overview of the ROADiBROM activities
European workshops China Workshops
11th Oct 2007, Brussels:•Technology and Devices•Service and Value Chain
2nd and 3rd Nov 2007, Shanghai•Technology and Devices•Service and Value Chain
6th March 2008, Amsterdam•Policy and regulation•Service and Value Chain
6th and 7th Dec 2007, Beijing•Policy and regulation•Service and Value Chain
March 2008, Munich•Consolidation of results
Early April 2008, Shanghai•Consolidation of results
www.ve-forum.org/digital convergence
谢谢 !
Thank you!