Challenges to the London Plan:
Population and Household Forecasts in the Light of the
2001 Census
John Hollis
London School of Economics Lent Term Seminars
24 February 2003
Data Management and Analysis
Timetable of London Plan Demographic Work
• June 2000 GLA 2000 Round of Demographic Projections
• May 2001 Towards the London Plan• October 2001 Expert Panel on average
household size, etc• March 2002 Planning for London’s Growth• May 2002 SDS Technical Report 5• June 2002 draft London Plan• January 2003 GLA 2002 Round of
Demographic Projections and SDS Technical Report 23 (2001 MYE)
• February 2003 Update to SDS TR 23 (2001 KS)
Data Management and Analysis
Some Basic Premises
All work at borough level Use of latest official ONS/ODPM data throughout:
– ONS vital statistics– Migration based on MYE change analysis, International
Passenger Survey, Patient Records and AS/VS– DETR 1996-based household representative rates– GAD marital status, fertility and mortality forecasts
Assumptions consistent with GAD/ONS/ODPM– ie Projected migration based on latest 5-years data
However ….
Data Management and Analysis
Some Problem Areas
• Inconsistencies between ODPM household and dwelling estimates with:– Survey of English Housing household estimates– Survey of English Housing average household
size– Council Tax Dwelling stocks
• Expert Panel discussion • A major pragmatic decision required:
– The future level of average household size?
• Different age/gender structure from ONS ..• .. therefore different household projection
from ODPM
Data Management and Analysis
GLA 2000 Round Demographic Projections
• Projection 1B – based on London’s Housing Capacity 1996-2016
• Projection 2 – based on average migration patterns of 1993-98
• Results for 2016:– P1B: Population 7.60 m: Households: 3.34 m– P2: Population 8.15 m: Households: 3.59 m– Towards the London Plan
• ONS/DETR 1996-based– Population: 7.61 m: Households 3.52 m
Data Management and Analysis
Scenario 8.1 (June 2001)
Inner, Outer and Greater London as 2000 Round P2
After 1996 Inner/Outer P2 results redistributed to Inner/Outer boroughs according to P1B borough results
Shifted 2016 population away from K&C (52k), Westminster (65k), Barnet (52k) and Richmond (39k)
Shifted 2016 population to Islington (24k), Tower Hamlets (32k), B&D (30k) and Greenwich (30k)
Data Management and Analysis
London: Dwellings and Households since 1991
2750
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Year
Th
ou
san
ds
LFS (HH)
SEH (HH)
DTLR (HH)
DTLR (DW)
CTax (DW)
Data Management and Analysis
London Average Household Size
ODPM SEH GLASc8.11991 2.39 2.391994 2.401995 2.381996 2.32 2.39 2.351997 2.32 2.381998 2.32 2.391999 2.30 2.392000 2.28 2.392001 2.28 2.34
Data Management and Analysis
Benchmarking Scenario 8.1 Households (AHS = 2.35)
(000s) Original Benchmarked
1996 2966 29662001 3125 31102016 3592 3421
2001-16 467 311
Per annum 31.1 20.7
Data Management and Analysis
SDS Technical Report 5 (May 2002)
Population Households
2001 7.411m 3.110m 2016 8.149m 3.421m
0.738m 0.311m
455k household increase 1996-2016 – 23k per year
Data Management and Analysis
2001 Census/MYE – Sept/Oct 2002
• 2001 MYE: 7.188 m cf approx 7.475 m– 1991 MYE also reduced by 60 k– Growth since 1991 reduced by 225 k to 360 k– International migration +465 k rather than +690
k– ‘Loss’ of young males– Younger and more female population
• ‘Losses’ in Westminster (62k), K&C (31k), Barnet (30k) and Richmond (22k)
• ‘Gains’ in Tower Hamlets (10k), Brent (10k), B&D (8k) and Southwark (7k)
Data Management and Analysis
GLA 2002 Round Demographic Projections
• Three variant projections for sensitivity – following GOL/ODPM comments on dLP
• Central: average gross and net migration of 1996-2001 after 2001
• Low: International Migration as Central; UK migration based on 2000-01
• High: UK Migration as Central; International migration based on 2000-01
• Population, Households and Economically Active
Data Management and Analysis
Greater London Population: 1991-2001
6800
6900
7000
7100
7200
7300
7400
7500
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Year
thou
sand
s
ONS MYE
MYE 'Revised'
Data Management and Analysis
Chart 1: Greater London Male Population: 1991
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44
Age Group
Census
MYE
'Revised' MYE
Data Management and Analysis
London: Net Migration 1991-2001
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01
Year
Thou
sand
s
Original Net Migration
Adjusted Net Migration
Data Management and Analysis
London: International Migration
0
50
100
150
200
250
1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01
Year
Thou
sand
s
In
Out
In-Adj
Out-Adj
Data Management and Analysis
Table 2: Greater London Migration 1991-2001: thousands
International Migration (revised) UK Migration TotalIn Out Net In Out Net Net
1991-92 95.2 91.3 3.9 153.9 208.2 -54.3 -50.41992-93 90.1 70.8 19.2 149.9 200.4 -50.5 -31.21993-94 100.5 74.2 26.3 152.7 203.4 -50.7 -24.51994-95 102.0 80.1 21.9 166.6 207.8 -41.2 -19.21995-96 119.8 69.8 50.0 168.8 208.9 -40.1 9.91996-97 111.3 79.6 31.7 168.5 217.7 -49.2 -17.51997-98 139.0 97.1 41.9 169.5 221.5 -52.0 -10.01998-99 180.9 101.3 79.6 167.6 220.1 -52.5 27.11999-00 193.1 106.4 86.7 163.3 233.2 -69.9 16.82000-01 208.6 109.5 99.1 163.6 232.2 -68.6 30.5
AnnualAverage1996-01 166.6 98.8 67.8 166.5 224.9 -58.4 9.4
Data Management and Analysis
Chart 2: Greater London 2001 Male Population: 1991-based projection cf. MYE
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
0 - 4 5 - 9 10 -14
15 -19
20 -24
25 -29
30 -34
35 -39
40 -44
45 -49
50 -54
55 -59
60 -64
65 -69
70 -74
75 -79
80 -84
85 -89
90 +
Age
1991-based projection
2001 MYE
Data Management and Analysis
Chart 3: Greater London 2001 Female Population: 1991-based projection cf. MYE
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
0 - 4 5 - 9 10 -14
15 -19
20 -24
25 -29
30 -34
35 -39
40 -44
45 -49
50 -54
55 -59
60 -64
65 -69
70 -74
75 -79
80 -84
85 -89
90 +
Age
1991-based projection
2001 MYE
Data Management and Analysis
Chart 7: Greater London Natural Change: 2001-16 (Central Projection)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015
2015-2016
Year
thou
sand
s
Births
Deaths
Natural Change
Data Management and Analysis
Chart 8: Greater London Variant Net Migration: 2001-16
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Year
Thou
sand
s
Low
Central
High
Data Management and Analysis
Chart 9: Greater London Population: 1991-2016
6500
6700
6900
7100
7300
7500
7700
7900
8100
8300
8500
Year
thou
sand
s
Low
Central
High
Data Management and Analysis
Chart 10: Greater London Age Structure: 2001 and 2016 (Central Projection)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 - 4 5 - 9 10 -14
15 -19
20 -24
25 -29
30 -34
35 -39
40 -44
45 -49
50 -54
55 -59
60 -64
65 -69
70 -74
75 -79
80 -84
85 -89
90 +
Age
thou
sand
s
2001
2016
Data Management and Analysis
Greater London Results
2001 2016 Change
Population 7188006 Low 7600767 412761Central 7899063 711057High 8287145 1099139
Households 3056442 Low 3341314 284872Central 3472962 416520High 3626292 569850
Data Management and Analysis
Table 6 Greater London Central Household Projection, by Type of HouseholdChange
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2001-16
Married Couple Households 1244071 1129938 1049278 965798 909153 871863 -177415Cohabiting Couple Households 193574 242815 336974 420606 483649 524534 187560Lone Parent Households 190852 229524 262548 286361 304114 319486 56938One Person Households 882466 954640 1044410 1121019 1202370 1299840 255430Other 2+ Person Households 298092 327494 363232 394594 426100 457239 94007
Total Households 2809055 2884411 3056442 3188378 3325386 3472962 416520
Average Household Size 2.39 2.37 2.32 2.30 2.27 2.24 -
Data Management and Analysis
The London Plan: Revised Forecast
• Central Projection basis for Scenario 7.9 Forecast
• Borough populations revised to provide a closer match between household projection and ‘London’s Housing Capacity’: 2001-16
• Household projections then ‘benchmarked’ at constant borough 2001 AHS
• Overall London AHS of 2.32• 2001-16 ‘Benchmarked’ household growth:
307 thousand • SDS Technical Report 23
Data Management and Analysis
2001 Census: Key Statistics
• First results showing some of the variables used in household projections
• Communal establishment population• Private household population• Total households• Average household size• Households by type
• All of relevance to the London Plan forecast
Data Management and Analysis
Communal Establishment Population
• 93 thousand – including 6 thousand staff, etc.• London: 1.30% E&W: 1.80%• 34 thousand in Medical/Care Establishments• 53 thousand in ‘Other’ Estabs. Inc students
• London Plan: 100 thousand: 1.40%
• Therefore a slightly larger private household population at mid-2001: 7.094 million
Data Management and Analysis
Households
• Key Statistics 3.016 million• Average household size: 2.35
• dLP: 3.110 million: @ 2.35 !!!
• SDS TR23: 3.056 million: @ 2.32
• ODPM: 3.121 million: @ 2.27
Data Management and Analysis
Households by Type
• Key Statistics ‘family’ categories do not absolutely match standard types
• Married couples: 1,057 k 1,049k• Cohabiting couples: 299 k 337k <<<• Lone parents: 250 k 263k• 2+ non-family: 364 k 363k• One-person: 1,047 k 1,044k
Key Stats SDS TR 23
Data Management and Analysis
Impact on the London Plan
• 2001 starting level is lower …• … but 2001-16 growth little altered
• 2001: 3.023 million households @ AHS 2.35
• 2016 Projection: Range 3.395 m to 3.435 m– Growth: 370-410 k– AHS: 2.27-2.30
• 2016 Benchmarked Forecast: 3.320 m– Growth: 300 k
Data Management and Analysis
Greater London: Projected/Forecast Average Household Size
2.1
2.15
2.2
2.25
2.3
2.35
2.4
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Year
ODPM
GLA 2000
DLP
GLA2002
SDS TR 23
GLA2002KS 1
GLA2002KS 2
SDS TR 23 Rev
Data Management and Analysis
Greater London Population: 1991-2016
6700
6900
7100
7300
7500
7700
7900
8100
8300
Year
thousa
nds
ONS MYE
Adjusted MYE
draft london Plan
Post- Census Revisions
Data Management and Analysis
What are the Risks?
• International migration continues to rise ..• .. but ..• .. migration from GL to rest of UK is also
rising
• Internal migration settles back to around 50k/year
• Household formation starts to accelerate
Data Management and Analysis
Lessons from 2001 Census – so far
• ONS Mid-year Estimates– Who is a resident?– Improve international migration estimates
• ODPM– Re-base and rethink household projection
model– Review Labour Force Survey results– Re-weight Survey of English Housing
• GLA– Increase scepticism of MYE– Utilise a range of indicators: eg Council Tax– The GLA models appear to be robust