China’s Energy and CO2 Emission Scenario by 2050:
A Policy Roadmap
Energy Research Institute, China
ERI, China
Framework of Integrated Policy Model for China (IPAC)
ERI, China ERI, China
IPAC-SGM
IPAC-AIM/tech
IPAC-Emission
IPAC/Tech(Power/Transport)
IPAC/SE, IPAC/EAlarm
IPAC-AIM/Global
IPAC/AIM-Local
Energy demand and supply
Price/investment
Economic impact
Medium/long-term analysis
Medium/short term
analysis
Technology
assessment
Detailed technology
flow
Region analysis
Medium/short analysis
Energy demand and supply
Technology policy
IPAC-AIM/MATERIAL
Energy demand and supply
Full range emission
Price, resource, technology
Medium-long term analysis
Economic impact
Environment industry
Pollutant emission
Medium/long-term analysis
Technology development
Environment impact
Technology policy
AIM-air IPAC-health
Energy demand and supply
Price/investment
Medium/long-term analysis
Short term forecast/
energy early warning
Climate Model
IPAC/Gains-Asia
Copenhagen Accord
To achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention to
stabilize greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere at
a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system, we shall, recognizing
the scientific view that the increase in global temperature
should be below 2 degrees Celsius, on the basis of equity
and in the context of sustainable development, enhance our
long-term cooperative action to combat climate change.
Global Emission: 2 degree
Copenhagen Commitment: the GAP
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.001
99
0
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
20
55
20
60
20
65
20
70
20
75
20
80
20
85
20
90
20
95
21
00
坐标
轴标
题
CO2
L.A
Africa
M.E
S.E.Asia
CPA
EFSU
P-OECD
W-OECD
USA
GtC
Global Emission
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mt-
CO
2
CO2 Emission in China
Baseline
LC
ELC
2Degree
9
Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change
• Improving Management Systems and Working Mechanisms
• Carbon intensity target in 12th FYP was decomposed to all provinces
• A target responsibility assessment system for local government
• Strengthening Strategic Studies and Plan Formulation
• the overall target, phased tasks, implementation methods and safeguarding
measures of low-carbon development by 2020, 2030 and 2050
• National Plan for Addressing Climate Change (2013-2020)
• Provincial Plans
• Promoting Legislation on Climate Change
• have set up a leading group for drafting laws on addressing climate change
• some respective laws have been issued, such as methods in Shanxi and
Qinghai province and management in Shenzhen special economic zone
10
Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change
• Improving Relevant Policy Systems
• Work Division Scheme for the Work Plan for Controlling Greenhouse Gas
Emissions during the 12th Five-Year Plan Period
• Issued a series of policy papers on addressing climate change, improve China’s
policy system in this regard:
• the Action Plan for Addressing Climate Change in Industry (2012-2020)
• the National Plan for the Development of Science and Technology on Climate Change during the 12th
Five-Year Plan Period
• the Interim Measures on Low-carbon Products Certification Management
• the Plans for Energy Development during the 12th Five-Year Plan Period
• the Plans for the Development of Energy-Efficient and Environmental-Protection Industries during
the 12th Five-Year Plan Period
• the Suggestions on Speeding up the Development of Energy-Efficient and Environmental-Protection
Industries
• the Industrial Energy Efficiency during the 12th Five-Year Plan Period
• the 2013 Implementation Plans for Industrial Energy Efficiency and Green Development
• the Action Plan for Green Architecture
• the National Eco-system Protection during the 12th Five-Year Plan Period
11
Recent Policies for Mitigation
• Economic structure optimization policies
• NDRC’s industry policies
• Investment control
• Carbon tax/other taxes: within 12th Five Year
• Emission trading: domestic, and international
• Energy structure
• Clean utilization of fossil fuel: Natural gas (Shale gas etc.)
• Renewable energy power generation oriented policies
• New scenario by 2020: wind 250GW, solar: 50 to 80GW
• More policies on pricing, especially on distributed power generation,
feed-in tariff
• Energy efficiency policies
• 12th FYP target: to the local government
• Sector policies: including construction and transport
• Improving energy efficiency standard and labeling scheme
• Expanding energy conservative technologies and products
• Increasing forest carbon sinks
• Other GHG control: agriculture, non-CO2
12
What’s the future of China’s low carbon policy: key factors
• Economic structure optimization policies
• Energy efficiency policies
• Renewable energy/nuclear power generation oriented policies
• CCS
• Low carbon consumption/ lifestyle
• Land use emission reduction policies: so far relatively poor
• Can we pay for it? Cost and benefit
13 13
Investment by industrial sectors
工业分部门投资
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
年份
亿元
建筑业
自来水的生产和供应业
煤气的生产和供应业
蒸汽热水生产供应业
电力生产供应业
其他工业
仪器仪表文化办公用机械
电气机械及器材、电子及通信设备制造业
交通运输设备制造业
普通机械、专用设备制造业
金属制品业
有色金属
黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业
非金属矿物制品业
橡胶制品业, 塑料制品业
化学纤维制造业
医药制造业
化学原料及制品制造业
炼焦业
石油加工
印刷业记录媒介的复制, 文教体育用品制造业
造纸及纸制品业
木材加工及竹藤棕草制品业、家具制造业
服装皮革及其他纤维制品制造
纺织业
烟草加工业
食品饮料加工、制造业
非金属矿采选业, 其他矿采选业, 木材及竹材采运业
有色金属矿采选业
黑色金属矿采选业
天然气开采业
石油
煤炭采选业
农业
10
^8
Yu
an
14
Products output in major sectors, Low Carbon and ELC
Unit 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050Steel Million ton 355 610 570 440 360Cement Million ton 1060 1600 1600 1200 900
GlassMillioncases
399 650 690 670 580
Copper Million ton 2.6 7 7 6.5 4.6Ammonia Million ton 8.51 16 16 15 12Ethylene Million ton 5.1 7.2 7 6.5 5.5Soda Ash Million ton 14.67 23 24.5 23.5 22Casutic Million ton 12.64 24 25 25 24Paper Million ton 62.05 110 115 120 120FertilizerMillion ton 52.2 61 61 61 61Aluminum Million ton 7.56 34 36 36 33Paper Million ton 46.3 50 50 50 45Calcium carbideMillion ton 8.5 10 8 7 4
分部门能源消费量, Energy demand by sector, 1995-2010
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
农、
林、
牧、
渔业
采掘
业煤
炭开
采和
洗选
业石油和天然气开采业
黑色
金属
矿采
选业
有色
金属
矿采
选业
非金
属矿
采选
业其
他采
矿业
农副
食品
加工
业食
品制
造业
饮料
制造
业烟
草制
品业
纺织
业纺
织服
装、
鞋、
帽制
造业
皮革
、毛
皮、
羽毛
(绒)及
其制
品业
木材
加工
及木
、竹
、藤
、棕
、草
制品
业
家具
制造
业造
纸及
纸制
品业
印刷
业和
记录
媒介
的复
制文教体育用品制造业
石油
加工
、炼
焦及
核燃
料加
工业
化学
原料
及化
学制
品制
造业
医药
制造
业化
学纤
维制
造业
橡胶
制品
业塑
料制
品业
非金
属矿
物制
品业
黑色
金属
冶炼
及压
延加
工业
有色
金属
冶炼
及压
延加
工业
金属
制品
业通
用设
备制
造业
专用
设备
制造
业交
通运
输设
备制
造业
电气
机械
及器
材制
造业
通信
设备
、计
算机
及其
他电
子设
备制
造业
仪器
仪表
及文
化、
办公
用机
械制
造业
工艺品及其他制造业
废弃
资源
和废
旧材
料回
收加
工业
电力
、煤
气及
水生
产和
供应
业电
力、
热力
的生
产和
供应
业燃
气生
产和
供应
业水
的生
产和
供应
业建
筑业
交通
运输
、仓
储和
邮政
业批
发、
零售
业和
住宿
、餐
饮业
其他
行业
生活
消费
1995
2000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
16
Unit energy use for key products, LCS Scenario
Unit 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050
Steel Kgce/t 760 650 564 554 545
Cement Kgce/t 132 101 86 81 77
GlassKgce/Weight
Cases 24 18 14.5 13.8 13.1
Brick Kgce/万块 685 466 433 421 408
Ammonia Kgce/t 1645 1328 1189 1141 1096
Ethylene Kgce/t 1092 796 713 693 672
Soda Ash Kgce/t 340 310 290 284 279
Casutic Kgce/t 1410 990 890 868 851
Calcium carbide Kgce/t 1482 1304 1215 1201 1193
Copper Kgce/t 1273 1063 931 877 827
Aluminum kWh/t 14320 12870 12170 11923 11877
Paper Kgce/t 1047 840 761 721 686
Electricity fossil fuel Gce/kWh 350 305 287 274 264
17
Transport, Low carbon scenario
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Family car ownership, per 100HH Urban 3.37 14 36 65 77 78
Rural 0.08 0.2 8 38 70 90
Family car annual travel distance, km 9500 9500 9300 8635 8300 7480
Average engin size of family cars, litter 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4
Fuel efficiency of car, L/100km 9.2 8.9 7.1 5.9 4.8 4.1
Share of MRT in total traffic volume, % 0.011 0.016 0.025 0.046 0.1 0.21
Share of Biofuel, % 1.10% 1.30% 4.1% 7.70% 12% 13%
Share of electric car, % 0% 0.12% 3.2% 6.80% 12.5% 19.8%
Share of fuel cell car, % 0% 0% 0.80% 1.60% 4.70% 7.90%
Car Fuel Efficiency in China
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
l/1
00
km
Santana
Fukan
JATTA
Audi-100
Xiali
Polo
FIT
JATTA-CTI
BMW
JEEP
SIENA
BENZ
VIZE
QQ-0.8
BORA
SANA
PASSAT
SUNNY
ELANTA
COROLA
QQ-1.1
ELESSA
ACCORD-3.0
PAJERO
PRUIS
LUPO
Rapid bus: using existing rapid road
Stockholm: bicycle is coming back
High efficiency
lighting【 LED】
Solar PV
Energy monitor system
(Electric Appliance)
Eco-Life style
减少60% 采暖需求,
普及率70%
(25-47% 的家庭拥有屋顶光伏电池,转换效率接近30%
COP =8,
普及率100%
Super High
Efficiency Air-Con
Solar energy for hot water
and space heating
普及率: 20-60%(目前 6%)
Heat pump
COP=5
普及率30-70%
Fuel cell
普及率0-20%
High insulation
system
减少50%照明需求,普及率100%
Standby energy use
降低1/3 ,普及率100%
Low Carbon House
in 2050: comfortable
and energy saving
Planting on
top
5
Solar Energy
High efficiency electric appliance
Reduce energy use, and higher life level
Public information
Public consumption
change
减少10-20% 能源需求
22
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
Power Generation
Bio
Solar
Wind
Nulcear
Hydro
N.Gas
Oil fired
Coal fired
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
万千
瓦
Power Generation Capacity
Biomass
Solar
Wind
Nuclear
Hydro
N.Gas
Oil
Coal
10
Th
ou
san
d K
Wh
27 27
CCS future
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
%
IGCC-Fuel Cell
IGCC
US-Critical
Super Critical
Large Coal Unit
Samll Coal
CCS future
28
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
10
^8Yu
an
Year
Investment in Energy Industry in China
BaU
HLC
HELC
LLC
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
10^8
Yuan
Year
Energy Expenditures in China
BaU
HLC
HELC
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000
Industry Transport Building Total
10
^8
Yu
an
Year
Addtional Investment in end use sectors in ELC
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
2010 2020 2030 2050 2075 2100
GDP Loss, %
650ppm
550ppm
450ppm
Per Capita
Carbon Intensity
29
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
MtS
O2
SO2 Emission
BaU
LC
ELC
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
10
00
ton
Black Carbon Emission in China
BaU
LowCarbon
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mt
NOx Emission in China, ELC scenario
Other
Power generation
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mto
n
PM2.5 Emission
Other
Power generation
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
ton
Mercury Emission
Other
Power generation
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2005 2010 2020 2030 2050
Ind
ex,
20
05
=1
Year
Technology learning curve
Fuel Cell IGCC
Hydrogen Car
Poly-Generation
Solar Thermal Power
PV
4th Generation Nuclear
Off shore wind
on shore wind
Biomass Power
Advanced NGCC
Electic Car
CCS
Solar 2010
Wind 2010
CCS-PostC
CCS-Enduse
LED Lighting
Price: US$38000
Subsidy: US$15000(Shanghai), no need to apply number
plate(cost US$10000)
US$18000(Beijing), no need to apply number plate(By
Oct. 2012, 1.1 million people apply for 20000number
plates per month),
By 2020, Wind 200GW to
250GW, Solar 50WG
31
Good news
• Technology progress is much faster than our model says: learning
curve effects
• High GDP growth could support low carbon development in China:
all cost analysis in models are very small compared with GDP
• By 2015, GDP in China could reach 75trillion Yuan(in current value)
• Newly added accumulated GDP is 450 Trillion Yuan
• Cumulated GDP is 860 Trillion Yuan
• All the investment need in all modeling study is much small
• China’s low carbon related technology manufacture is getting
leading in the world: benefit for economy
• Local environment issues will be a very strong factor to go to clean
production, nearly match with low carbon development
32
Policy roadmap: Super high efficiency air conditioner
• Efficiency Standard: COP, MEPS
• Government Planning
• Subsidy
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Start COP
影响电动汽车发展的主要制约因素分析
Major Constraints Factors Analysis
电动汽车实现经济性的趋势分析 Trend Analysis on EVs
电动汽车发展技术路线图
Electric Car Roadmap
电动汽车发展政策路线图建议 Suggesting Policy Roadmap
36
Natural Gas Scenarios
• In 2010,Natural Gas use 107.2BCM, while 12.2BCM imported.
• In our low carbon scenario: by 2030, 370BCM
• NEA’s planning: 260BCM by 2015
POWER_BOX by Baosteel
2kW wind
10kW Solar PV
1.5m/s
Physical process
38
Renewable Energy
• Renewable Energy Planning 2006: wind 30GW, Solar 2GW by
2020
• 2009 Energy Bureau: Wind 80WG
• 2010 Energy Planning: Wind 150 GW, Solar 20GW by 2020
• Now: Wind 200GW to 300GW, Solar 50WG to 80 GW
• Based on the conclusion from Chinese Academy for
Engineering, grid in China could adopt these renewable energy
power generation in short term.