Presented at LKY School of Public Policy – Public Policy for Sustainability
Forward Asia-Pacific Consulting PTE, LTD
www.creatingpositivefutures.net
Ecosphere 87 Beach Road #06-01, Singapore 189695
+65 8406 2275
The only thing certain is change.
The future =
Population growth +
Resource depletion +
Security and conflict +
Climate change
Population growth:
7-9bn on a planet that should
safely support 2bn
Economic and lifestyle ambition
to live like the West– with a
footprint to match.
There will be 219,000
people at the dinner table
tonight who were not there
last night—many of them
with empty plates. (Earth
Policy Institute)
Resource depletion:
More people, competing for less
―stuff‖.
Especially critical: energy and
water (note the relationship).
Other key resources (e.g. trace
minerals) also declining in supply.
Half the world’s people live in
countries where water tables
are falling as aquifers are
being depleted. Since 70
percent of world water use is
for irrigation, water shortages
translate into food shortages.
(Earth Policy Institute)
Security and
conflict:
More security issues globally.
Countries increasingly scrambling
for resources (ie China, Korea, US)
Numerous flashpoints for conflict.
(Iraq, Sudan, Rwanda)
Virtually all of the top 20
countries considered to be
“failing states” are
depleting their natural
assets—forests,
grasslands, soils, and
aquifers—to sustain their
rapidly growing populations.
(Earth Policy Institute)
Climate change:
It will impact every aspect
of human life.
Temperature changes, erratic
weather, droughts, sea level rise…
They’re game changers at a
difficult point in human evolution.
Winter temperatures in the
Arctic, including Alaska,
western Canada, and
eastern Russia, have
climbed by 4–7 degrees
Fahrenheit over the last
half-century. This record rise
in temperature in the Arctic
region could lead to
changes in climate patterns
that will affect the entire
planet. (Earth Policy
Institute)
Cleantech: the silver bullet?
... or did technology start the mess
we currently have?
If we do not mind history,
we are destined to repeat it.
So how are we defining
―cleantech‖?
Cleantech is a term used to
describe products or services that
improve operational performance,
productivity, or efficiency while
reducing costs, inputs, energy
consumption, waste, or pollution.(wikipedia)
It’s about humans, not just technology.
Fixing human software
(behaviour, attitudes, beliefs)
is
more important
than making more hardware.
Technology, like money, is a
means to an end.
Solve first for human behaviour.
Design technology
holistically as part of
a system.
Design for numerous outcomes.
Design for local conditions.
There are no silver bullet
solutions to our problems.
There is no ―one-size fits all.‖
There are no global ―killer apps.‖
There are plenty of clichés and
bad ideas.
Want help?
Some global cleantech best practice examples
Chido Govero
Orphan in Zimbabwe
Pioneered growing
mushrooms on
agricultural waste to
feed her family
Turned into an export
industry
Inspired and trained
others in Africa, South
America, and India
Jack Sim
Successful Singaporean
business-man
Chose to tackle
sanitation issues in
developing countries
rather than ―retire‖
Founded World Toilet
Organisation (WTO)
and drew resources
worldwide for the cause
Singh Intrachooto
Thai architect,designer,
professor, owner of
Osisu
Designs furniture,
products, and buildings
using recycled
industrial and
agricultural waste
Highly successful and
internationally
renowned
Majora Carter
American economics
consultant, concerned
citizen and activist
Founded Sustainable
South Bronx and
pioneered numerous
green initiatives locally
Reactivated the
neighbourhood, created
jobs, cleaned up
environment
Dr. Willie Smits
Dutch conservationist and
entrepreneur living in
Borneo
Pioneered combined
sustainable forest farming,
rainforest creation project,
orangutan habitat, and eco-
tourism venture: Samboja
Lestari
Also founded Masarang
Foundation which among
other things helped pioneer
converting sugar palm to
ethanol
Tom Szaky
American ―eco-capitalist‖
Created the startup
Terracycle, a company that
makes consumer products
out of post-consumer
products
First started by bottling
worm fertiliser in reused
plastic drink bottles
Has expanded to numerous
other product lines; has
many emulators worldwide
What’s going on locally?
What can you as a professional do?
Anticipate the wider
implications of technology.
Some policy concerns:
-How might emergent technology have effects (both positive
and negative) across environmental, social, and economic
criteria?
-How can technology obsolescence be planned for, and
materials be harvested for recycling or reuse? (rather than
mountains of E-waste)
-How might technology impact cities, regions, and countries
unexpectedly? (e.g. think nuclear as a ―clean‖ option in Japan)
-How might technology influence evolution of human culture?
-What risks should be anticipated?
-What safeguards might need to be in place?
-What left-field problems might arise? (e.g. CFCs/ozone hole)
-Is there a way to tackle an issue with a low-tech solution?
(e.g. an electric robot lawn mower vs. a sheep)
Focus on adaptation.
Experiment and take risks.
Follow your passion & your gut.
View problems as opportunities.
Think broadly and influence people.
Learn globally.
You never change anything by
fighting the existing reality. To
change something, build a new
model that makes the old model
obsolete.
-- Buckminster Fuller
Tomorrow doesn’t have to be
another yesterday.
Contact
Chris Tobias
Managing Director/Lead Strategist
Forward Asia-Pacific Consulting PTE, LTD
www.creatingpositivefutures.net
Ecosphere 87 Beach Road #06-01,
Singapore 189695
Phone: +65 8406 2275
E-mail: [email protected]
Twitter: FWDTHNKG