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The Fourth International Conference on Climate Change
Seattle, WA * July 13, 2012
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Introduction
Methodology
Climate change knowledge
Risk perception and concern
Adaptation and adaptation barriers
Conclusion
Outline
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2011 The year of extreme
weather
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Climate change
2010 : Record CO2 emission 10 billion tons(Peters et al, 2012) & 49% increase since 1990
Planet is out of energy balance
Last decade and 2010 was the warmest since
1880.
2oC warming target in Cancun, Mexico, now
seems out of reach - Yvo de Boer, ex UN climate
chief
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Current and Future
Risk of climate
change in India:
Increased nos. and
intensity of
DroughtHeavy rain
Flood
Cyclone
Dry spell
Sea level rise
Glacier melting
Loss of biodiversity
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People perceive climate
change within the local
context, filtered by theirlocal knowledge, experience
and socio economic
condition.
Thus, Peoples knowledge, risk
perceptions, and their levels of
concern for climate change arevery important for initiating
any action to stop it or reduce
its adverse impacts.
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From policy perspective it is important to know
How people understand climate change?
What they perceive as risk? and
How they behave to adapt to those risks of
climate change?
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Introduction
Methodology
Climate change knowledge
Risk perception and concern
Adaptation and adaptation barriers
Conclusion
Outline
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Study Area
Map of Gujarat. Source: http://maps.newkerala.com/Gujarat-Travel-Map.jpg
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Research methods
Quantitative Questionnaire survey
Qualitative Interviews
6 Interview respondents
447 Survey participants
Supplemented by a few numbers of
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Knowledge
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Climate Change Knowledge
Yes33%No
67%
Heard aboutclimate change?
More familiar :
Younger
Educated
Residents of cyclone
prone and drought
prone areas
Familiarity:
However, respondents accepted that their climate
has changed significantly
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Climate change knowledge
Overall good knowledge of causes and
mitigation measures of climate change
(M = 0.75, SD = 0.15).
1.34 % 2.24 %
29.31 %
67.11 %
Levels of climate change knowledge
Fair knowledge
Little knowledge
Good knowledge
Very goodknowledge
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Different theories
Local knowledge contained to some extent a
mix of hybridity and mistranslations (Gupta, 1998)reflecting a blending of ideas from a wide range
of sources.
Some respondents identified over population asthe cause, while some others believed
reforestation and efficient use of energy as
solutions to climate change.
Right ::::: since carbon emissions are connected
to all of these causes
But, peoples explanation of these causes or
solutions relied on a very different reasoning
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Different theories
Some interviewees who cited efficient energy
usage said that light bulbs emit heat into the
atmosphere, so having less lighting from a bulb
means less heat.
Reforestation increases flow of cold air orabsorption of heat by trees.
Bostrom et al (1994) and Leiserowitz (2010) inthe USA, and Crate (2008) in Siberia also
reported respondents connecting spacecraft
launches as the cause of global warming by
linking it with punching holes in the ozone layer.
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Risk perception
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Climate Change Risk Perception
Four-point Likert scale ranging from very
unlikely (1) to very likely (4)
Risk index scores were grouped in four
subjective levels of perceived risk: less risk,
moderate risk, high risk, and very high risk.
1-2='Little perceived risk' 2.01-3='Moderate perceived risk' 3.01-3.5='High perceived risk' 3.51-4.0='Very high perceived risk
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Risk perception
ANOVA Area Edu
F Value 23.68 7.51
DF 2, 235 4, 435
Pr > F
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Risk perception
Contributors to individuals perception of risk
Parameters Coefficients P value
Family income 0.0005, 0.017
Education 0.1067 0.0001
Climate Change
knowledge
0.3201 0.016
Cyclone prone
environmental condition
0.1923 0.0001
Drought prone
environmental condition
-0.1082, 0.016
R2
= .17
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Climate Change Concern
Overall little to
moderate concern 31.10% - Little
51.23% - Moderate
Marked difference inlevel of concern
between residents of
different areas.
Farmers of cyclone
prone area are more
concerned than those
of drought prone area
2.20
2.40
2.60
2.80
Cycloneprone
Droughtprone
Normal
2.7
4
2.4
2
2.6
2
Concer
nIncex
Mean level of concern
Mean
ANOVA
F Value 6.84
DF 2, 437
Pr > F 0.0012
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Concern
Contributors to individuals level of concern
Variables Coefficients P value
Level of perceived risk 0.3109 0.0001
Income -0.0007 0.0695
Drought prone
environmental condition
-0.1530 0.0384
R2 = .087
Sjoberg (1997): worry and risk
perceptions are independent,
and weakly correlated
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Risk perception vs Concern
0%
41.83 %
39.6 %
18.57 %
Distribution of climate changeperceived risk
Little perceived risk Moderate perceived risk
High perceived risk Very high perceived risk
31%
51%
10%
8%
Distribution of respondents' levelsof concern
Little concern Moderate concern
High concern Very high concern
M = 3.11 M = 2.58
Peoples level of concern was less
than their degree of perceived risk.
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Risk perception Vs Concern
Why people are not strongly concerned!!!!
Do not think their
livelihoods will sufferdue to climate change
(M = 2.53).
Believe that innovationsin agricultural science
will address unwarranted
situations.
Assume that growth inoff-farm sources of
income will sustain
their livelihood
people underestimate
the impacts of climate
change on non-
agricultural sectors of
economy
It is not necessary that individuals are more worried (concerned)
when a hazard is judged to be large (Sjoberg, 1997) .
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Adaptation
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Research questions
What are adaptation responses of rural
households to climate change impacts?
What socio cultural and cognitive factors
influence rural households adaptation to climate
change?
What constraints do rural households perceive
for adaptation to climate change?
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Adaptation
12.7515.66
55.48 55.7
60.4 61.97
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
No adaptation Financialmanagement
Waterharvesting and
irrigation
Farmtechnological
adaptation
Landmanagement
Cropdiversification
Respondents,
%
Adptation categories
Climate change adaptation categories
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Adaptation - Determinants
Multivariate Probit analysis
Education and Land ownershipsignificantly influenced adaptation and
adaptation choices.
Household income significant
determinant for adoption of water
harvesting and modern of technologies.
Demographic determinants
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Adaptation - Determinants
Climate change knowledge, risk perceptionand concern not significant determinants
of adaptation choices
Cyclone prone areas : More likely to adopt landmanagement and water harvesting activities,
Drought prone areas: More likely to take up crop
diversification, land management andtechnological adaptation to climatic variation
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Who adapts what
Educated individuals are more likely to take up
varying choices of adaptation measures.
Families with large farm size are also more likely
to take up all adaptation actions except
household financial management.
Family with large income are more likely to take
up costly adaptations such as water harvesting
and adoption of modern technology
Older farmers are ore likely to take up modern
farm technologies
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Understanding result : system framework:
Socio -
Culturalfactors
Education
Demography
Experience
Environme
ntal
factors
Weathervariability
Climaticextremes
Crop pest &diseases
AdaptationPsychological
factors
Affect Image
Emotion
Concern
Risk perception
Outcomes
Knowledge
Barriers
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Putting results into a framework:
External demographic factors : significant determinants
Education and income: influenced adaptation behavior;
independent of its influence on risk perception and
concern
Land holdings: no predictors of risk perception or
concern, but determinant of adaptation behavior.
Environmental conditions - prominent contributor to
knowledge, risk perception, concern, and adaptation
behavior
Internal psychological factors: risk perceptions and emotional
worry (concern) were not significant predictors of adaptation
decisions in rural Saurastra and Kutch.
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Do people act for climate change!
Although respondents responses were inrelation to climate change , many times it is
difficult for them and for us to distinguish those
actions if they were initiated in response to
climate change or they were merely a part of
regular development process.
Our results indicate that peoples adaptation
actions were more likely in response to
comb9nation of many factors including climate
change.
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Adaptation time
Adaptation Time Frequency PercentAdaptation after noticing the
impacts of Climate change
111 26.24
Adaptation before noticing any
impact of climate change
150 35.46
Adaptations are not related to
climate change
162 38.30
For many households, their actions might be
profit driven; initiated in response to general
development process and in conjunction with
climate change
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Adaptation barriers
1.57 2.68
21.0324.38 25.50
34.68
41.39
66.44
75.6278.52
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
No barriers Other barriers
Shortage oflabor
Lack ofappropriateinsurancescheme
Lack ofknowledge
onadaptation
Lack ofcredit
availability
Lack ofopportunity
Access toimproved
seed
Lack ofweather
information
Lack ofmoney
Responden
ts%
Barriers to adaptation
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What confirms
In real world situation: Households with large
farm size and high annual income usually take up
costly adaptation measures and invest in
technology.
Our results are in conformity with these real
world saturations. Wealthy households in
Saurastra and Kutch are more likely to take
up costly adaptation measures.
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What differs
In real world situation: it is believed that people
usually react to perceived or existing risks for
minimizing adverse impacts of those risks.
Our results differ from the real world
situation. Relationship between risk
perception, concern and adaptation to
climate change in Saurastra and Kutch wasvery weak and not significant.
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What we missed
Use of improved crop varieties such as Bt cotton or
increased use of chemicals are common practicesacross the Surastra and Kutch, but many
respondents did not mention it.
Pastoralists migration with their flocks and herds tograzing grounds during summer.
Pastoralists diversification of occupation in farming ,
transport or mining sectors.
Many farmers diversification of livelihood sources in
diamond polishing, small scale businesses and
employment in private and public sectors.
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Conclusion
Rural household in Surastra and Kutch are not
concerned enough to take action in response toclimate change
Better communication strategy in place!!!!!
Awareness do not converts into action
Focus on local research
Use learning from successful events
Improve capacity of local communities byjoining them in local disaster plans
Improvement in credit system and delivery of
weather and agriculture information services
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Ad t ti P ti A l
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Adaptation Practices - A glance
Land leveling Check dam
Sprinkler irrigation Farm bund /soil berm
Ad t ti P ti A l
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Adaptation Practices - A glance
Horticulture Open well for irrigation
Use of organic manure Deep plouging
References:
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Ifwe use less electricity then climate change
can stop. What you believe about this? Yes it
is right. Let me tell one experience. If you sleep in
this open room without keeping the bulb on and
sleep with the bulb on and see how much heat
you feel. This gives you a practical experience.That is right but other than is there any other
reason? The way it affects human, it will affectclimate. Any light we burn (use electricity), the
heat is going to be in the environment. That
means electricity use (burning) might have equal
impact with that of petroleum products. Both areequally responsible. May be electricity may
increase less heat but it is sure that both
increases heat in the environment. (Village
leader from cyclone prone area)