Climatology and vulnerability to climate change in the “Altos
de Jalisco” region, Mexico
Ramírez-Sánchez HU1, García Guadalupe ME1, Ulloa-Godínez HH1, Garcia-Concepción FO1,
Fajardo-Montiel AL2.
1Institute of Astronomy and Meteorology CUCEI, 2Center for Strategic Studies, 3University
Center of Tonala and 4University Center of Sciences Biological Agricultural. University of
Guadalajara, Mexico. Av. Vallarta 2602. Col. Arcos Vallarta, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico,
Tel/Fax 52 3336159829 [email protected]
ABSTRACT
The State of Jalisco is one of the regions of Mexico that presents the highest levels of
vulnerability to climate change in the country, so it is necessary to identify the areas
which pose the highest risk for the effects of climate change. At present, it is important
to have information to design and implement measures to reduce the effects of climate
change on the supply of drinking water. Within the state of Jalisco the northern, high
altitude regions are the most vulnerable to water scarcity according to their climatology
and projections of climate change scenarios, so it is of huge importance to show the
current and future deficit of water. The objective of this study is to expose the
conditions of water resources in this region of great economic importance for the state
of Jalisco and Mexico.
The methodology to be used is to demonstrate the climatic and bioclimatic conditions,
the changes experienced in this region caused by climate change through R-Climdex
indicators, and projections of future scenarios of temperature, humidity and
precipitation using PRECIS, to finally expose the vulnerability of the water resource in
the region.
The results show agreement with the IPCC (2007) regarding global estimates of water
availability; By the middle of this century there will be a 10-30% decrease in freshwater
in the dry tropical zones (Mexico and Jalisco state) that already suffer from water stress
from surface and ground water. It is likely that as the century progresses, with
increasing temperature, and decreasing relative humidity and precipitation intensity,
there will be an increase in the extent of drought-affected areas. Likewise, a decrease in
the reserves of stored water is anticipated, which would reduce the availability of water
for this region as we approach the end of the century.
Water-19, Paris, 22-24 July 2019 Pag. 24
Keywords: Climatology, vulnerability, climate change, “Altos de Jalisco” Region.
Introduction:
Since the industrial revolution, there has been a marked increase in the emission of
greenhouse gases (mainly CO2 and CH4) into the atmosphere, raising the atmospheric
temperatures at the Earth's surface. The fourth assessment report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) concluded that average
surface temperatures have increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C is considered a linear trend in the
past 100 years (1906-2005). The rate of warming in the past 50 years is nearly twice
that in the past 100 years (IPCC 2007), largely attributed to anthropogenic influences.
However the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC 2014) estimated a warming of 0.85 ± 0.20 °C, during the period 1880-2012, for
which have occurred independently several sets of data. In the case of Mexico, the
average maximum and minimum temperatures have increased by about 0.2 °C per
decade during the period 1971-2003, for the country as a whole (Ramírez et al, 2015).
Regional studies on changes in temperature for China (Liu et al., 2004), Japan (Yue and
Hashino 2003), Korean Peninsula (Chung and Yoon 2000), the Mediterranean region
(Kutiel and Maheras 1998; Hasanean 2001), and Europe show consistent patterns with a
general warming. The last decade of the last century and the first of this century have
been the warmest years ever recorded. The phenomenon has been global in nature,
although warming trends do not show a great spatial and temporal variability.
Until recently, most of the long term studies on global climate change through
temperature records only focused on changes in mean values. Temperature is an integral
component of climate variability and change on the regional scale. The extremes in
temperatures, characterized by tolerance levels exceeding daily temperature and their
frequency, are of great interest in terms of human impact. It is seen to have important
socio-economic implications, such as its direct impact on the performance of farming,
power generation and consumption, and human health among others (Easterling et al.,
2000; Meehl et al., 2000a, b; Walther et al., 2002). There are many regional studies on
the basis of recorded data and only some results of model simulations.
More reliable, regional climate change projections are now available in many regions of
the world due to advances in modeling and understanding of the physical processes of
the climate system. However, constraints arise due to uncertainties in factors such as
Water-19, Paris, 22-24 July 2019 Pag. 25
change of population, economic variables, technological developments and other
relevant characteristics of future human activity, which constitute important ingredients
of climate simulation models. Therefore, certain carefully considered scenarios are
developed to project global climate scenarios planned for the future and their possible
consequences. Houghton et al., (1996) has come to the conclusion that the projections
of the statistical aspects of weather phenomena and climate extremes can be derived
from climate models that represent possible future climate states. The third assessment
report (TAR) of the IPCC has developed future climate change and extreme weather
events in these models (IPCC 2001). Changes in the general warming and rainfall over
the State of Jalisco indicated by atmosphere-ocean general circulation models show an
increase of the greenhouse effect scenarios. There have been efforts agreed at a
global/regional scale to also determine the nature of the changes in the extremes in other
regions of the world, however, a clear picture of such changes with regional details has
not been made to this region of Mexico. In this study, an attempt is made to face current
changes and projections from models of climate change towards the end of the 21st
century for the “Altos de Jalisco” region producing an evaluation of vulnerability to
climate change in the region.
Material and methods
The data for average, maximum, and minimum temperatures for the period 1971-2000
and 1981-2010 were obtained from the National Meteorological Service (SMN)
belonging to the National Water Commission (CNA), attached to the Ministry of
Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT) of a network of 208 meteorological
stations distributed in the State of Jalisco. In order to obtain this an assessment of the
data quality was carried out as a prerequisite for the calculation of the indices, since any
atypical and wrong value could have serious repercussions on the analysis of trends.
Therefore, some basic procedures of data processing needed to be taken to examine the
data of the individual stations, it allowed the identification of some extreme outliers and
also helped in the identification of possible lack of homogeneity and lack of values in
the data sets. Metadata files are configured for each station to identify doubtful values
and track changes in the data sets. Any suspect daily temperature values were identified
by the different quality controls; such as the maximum temperature below the minimum
temperature, daily values greater than four times the standard deviation from the
average for the time of year, and also the visual inspection of the historical series.
Water-19, Paris, 22-24 July 2019 Pag. 26
Suspicious records are checked with various data sources, and the erroneous values are
replaced by the correct values. The 48 stations used in the study were selected based on
the quality of the data, the duration of data availability and homogeneity to comply with
these requirements. (Aguilar et al., 2005;. Kothawale and Rupa Kumar 2005).
Data from regional climate models
The simulations using PRECIS have been performed to generate the last climate
scenarios (1971-2000) and for future periods of 2020, 2050 and 2080 for two different
socio-economic scenarios, both characterized by the focused regional development but
with priority to economic issues in the first (scenario A2) and environmental issues in
the second (scenario A1B). A detailed description of these scenarios is available in
IPCC special report on emissions scenarios SRES, (2000). PRECIS is configured for a
domain which extends from approximately -101° 28 °W to -105° 42 °W Wests
longitude and 18° 55' °N to 22° 45' °N North latitude for 0.22° x 0.22° of horizontal
resolution. A complete description of PRECIS is provided by Jones et al., (2004). In this
study, characteristics of mean and extreme temperatures are investigated to see their
future scenarios using average, minimum and maximum daily temperature data of
PRECIS for baseline (1961-1990) and the A2 and B2 scenarios 2020, 2050 and 2080.
Methodology
An important issue that arises in assessing changes in extremes is to objectively define
and quantify the various types of extremes in the weather elements. The Commission on
the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) comprises a team of experts in
climatology focusing on climate change detection, monitoring and indices (ET-CCDMI).
WMO has been coordinating efforts to develop a set of relevant indices and make
possible their global analysis through regional participation. In this study, some of the
indices developed by the ETCCDMI are calculated using RClimdex software at each
station to assess trends and also using PRECIS simulations during the same period. The
maximum and minimum temperature of baseline (1971-2000) data according to
PRECIS will be used to evaluate the ability of the model in the representation of the
regional climatic characteristics by comparing this data with in-situ observations for the
State of Jalisco. To eliminate possible biases apparent due to the differences in density
space between observation and model data representations, as well as the methodology,
the data from the model have been downgraded to match it with the observation
Water-19, Paris, 22-24 July 2019 Pag. 27
network. Mean, maximum, and minimum daily temperature of PRECIS data, are
extracted for the coordinates of the respective station where real observational data are
available. In addition, similar approaches in diagnostic analysis have been applied to
both models, as well as sets of observed data.
For the comprehensive analysis, the monthly average rates for the State of Jalisco
spatially aggregated are taking the simple arithmetic mean of the respective rates of all
stations analyzed to see changes in the annual cycle. Trends were calculated for each
station and for all Jalisco State on time series for all indices of average and extreme
temperatures. Extreme indices usually do not follow a Gaussian distribution, and
therefore a simple linear least-squares trend estimate would not be appropriate.
Therefore, estimates based on statistical range non-parametric Mann-Kendall slope are
used to test the significance of the long-term trends in the series of time (Sen, 1968).
These tests are widely used in environmental science because they are simple, they do
not assume a distribution of residuals to the effect of extreme values of the series, and
they can cope with the values and the lost below a limit of detection values.
Results and discussion
Climatology
The region “Altos de Jalisco” is characterized by its semi-dry and semi-warm dry and
temperate climate. The average temperature is 18 °C, with extremes of 15 -21 °C (Fig.
1). The average minimum is 8 °C, ranging between 6-13 °C (Fig. 2); and the maximum
average is 27 °C, which oscillates between 23-30 °C (Fig. 3). The average relative
humidity is 50-53% with extremes of 39-65% (Fig. 4). The predominant winds are
northwest and southeast in direction with variable speeds up to 60 km/h.
The mean precipitation is 683 mm, with ranges from 480 to 902 mm (Fig. 5). The
average evaporation of the region is 1907 mm with extremes of 1458 to 2195 mm (Fig.
6). The average number of days with rainfall is 68 with values between 49 and 91
days. The average number of days with fog is 10, ranging from 0 to 73 days. The
average number of days with hail is 1, located between 0 and 3 days. On the other hand,
the number of days with thunderstorms was 5, with oscillations between 0 and 31 (Fig.
7). The total number of days with frost is 24 with variations from 5 to 50. The average
daytime temperature oscillation is 9 ° C, with a range between 6-11 ° C (Figures 1-7).
Water-19, Paris, 22-24 July 2019 Pag. 28
Figure 1 Normal average temperature of the Altos de Jalisco region.
Figure 2 Normal minimum temperature of the Altos de Jalisco region.
Figure 3 Normal maximum temperature of the Altos de Jalisco region.
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Water-19, Paris, 22-24 July 2019 Pag. 29
Figure 4 Normal relative humidity of the Altos de Jalisco region.
Figure 5 Normal precipitation of the Altos de Jalisco region.
Figure 6 Normal evaporation of the Altos de Jalisco region.
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e S
an A
nto
nio
Vil
la H
ida
lgo
Aca
tic
Ara
nd
as 1
Ara
nd
as 2
Cañ
ada
s d
e O
bre
gón
Jalo
sto
titl
án 1
Jalo
sto
titl
án 2
Jesú
s M
aría
1Je
sús
Mar
ía 2
Me
xtic
acá
nSa
n J
uli
ánSa
n M
igu
el e
l Alt
oT
epat
itlá
n d
e M
ore
los
1T
epat
itlá
n d
e M
ore
los
2V
alle
de
Gu
adal
up
eY
ahu
alic
a d
e G
on
zále
z…Y
ahu
alic
a d
e G
on
zále
z…Y
ahu
alic
a d
e G
on
zále
z…Y
ahu
alic
a d
e G
on
zále
z…Sa
n I
gn
aci
o C
err
o…
Me
dia
Ma
xim
aM
inim
a
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
mm
)
Municipalities
1.8911.974
2.093
1.458
1.8601.8811.8901.795
1.992
1.788
2.0302.0342.114
1.821
1.966
1.7541.658
2.139
1.8651.856
2.047
1.5861.579
2.0202.004
1.683
1.8661.9681.9281.887
1.824
1.695
2.195
2.0081.896
2.065
1.7731.7951.684
2.1372.115
1.893
2.195
1.458
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
En
carn
ació
n d
e D
íaz
1E
nca
rnac
ión
de
Día
z 2
En
carn
ació
n d
e D
íaz
3L
ago
s d
e M
ore
no
1L
ago
s d
e M
ore
no
2L
ago
s d
e M
ore
no
3L
ago
s d
e M
ore
no
4L
ago
s d
e M
ore
no
5L
ago
s d
e M
ore
no
6L
ago
s d
e M
ore
no
7L
ago
s d
e M
ore
no
8O
juel
os
de
Jali
sco
1O
juel
os
de
Jali
sco
2Sa
n D
iego
de
Ale
jan
drí
aSa
n J
uan
de
los
La
gos
1Sa
n J
uan
de
los
La
gos
2T
eoca
ltic
he
1T
eoca
ltic
he
2T
eoca
ltic
he
3T
eoca
ltic
he
4T
eoca
ltic
he
5T
eoca
ltic
he
6T
eoca
ltic
he
7T
eoca
ltic
he
8U
nió
n d
e S
an A
nto
nio
Vil
la H
ida
lgo
Aca
tic
Ara
nd
as 1
Ara
nd
as 2
Cañ
ada
s d
e O
bre
gón
Jalo
sto
titl
án 1
Jalo
sto
titl
án 2
Jesú
s M
aría
1Je
sús
Mar
ía 2
Me
xtic
acá
nSa
n J
uli
ánSa
n M
igu
el e
l Alt
oT
epat
itlá
n d
e M
ore
los
1T
epat
itlá
n d
e M
ore
los
2V
alle
de
Gu
adal
up
eY
ahu
alic
a d
e G
on
zále
z…Y
ahu
alic
a d
e G
on
zále
z…Y
ahu
alic
a d
e G
on
zále
z…Y
ahu
alic
a d
e G
on
zále
z…Sa
n I
gn
aci
o C
err
o G
ord
oM
ed
iaM
axi
ma
Min
ima
Ev
ap
ora
tio
n (
mm
)
Municipalities
Water-19, Paris, 22-24 July 2019 Pag. 30
Figure 7 Normal thunderstorms in the Altos de Jalisco region.
An analysis of the climates was carried out in the North and South high altitude regions,
obtaining the following results:
• Región “Altos Norte” (Municipalities of: Encarnación de Díaz, Lagos de Moreno,
Ojuelos de Jalisco, San Diego de Alejandría, San Juan de los Lagos, Teocaltiche,
Unión de San Antonio and Villa Hidalgo):
This region is characterized by its semi-dry and semi-warm, with some dryness in
Encarnación de Diaz and Ojuelos and temperate in Ojuelos and Teocaltiche.
The region is located at an average latitude of 21.45 °N, which oscillates between 20.99
and 21.88 °N; and an average longitude of 102.21 ºW located between 101.57 and
103.65 ºW. The average altitude is 1915 m, from 1480 to 2254 m.
The mean average temperature is 18 °C, with extremes of 15 and 21 °C. The average
minimum temperature is 8 °C, ranging between 6 and 13 °C; and the average maximum
temperature is 27 °C, which oscillates between 23 and 30 °C. The average relative
humidity is 50% with extremes of 39 to 57%. The predominant winds are northwest and
southeast direction with variable speeds up to 60 km/h.
The average precipitation is 597 mm, which ranges from 480 to 748 mm. The average
evaporation of the region is 1884 mm with extremes of 1458 to 2139 mm. The average
number of days with rainfall is 63 with values between 49 and 79 days. The average
number of days with fog is 10, ranging from 0 to 73 days. The average number of days
3,3
0,6
3,52,5
0,1
4,93,9
2,5
5,8
22,9
1,21,23,1
7,3
3,72,8
8,9
0,30,4
14,1
1,12,42,52,2
1,2
4,6
0,70,4
4,2
1,9
6,3
17,4
2,32,11,51,2
17,416,3
8,3
1,2
30,6
5,3
8,5
4,88
30,60
0,10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
En
carn
ació
n d
e D
íaz
1E
nca
rnac
ión
de
Día
z 2
En
carn
ació
n d
e D
íaz
3L
ago
s d
e M
ore
no
1L
ago
s d
e M
ore
no
2L
ago
s d
e M
ore
no
3L
ago
s d
e M
ore
no
4L
ago
s d
e M
ore
no
5L
ago
s d
e M
ore
no
6L
ago
s d
e M
ore
no
7L
ago
s d
e M
ore
no
8O
juel
os
de
Jali
sco
1O
juel
os
de
Jali
sco
2Sa
n D
iego
de
Ale
jan
drí
aSa
n J
uan
de
los
Lag
os
1Sa
n J
uan
de
los
Lag
os
2T
eoca
ltic
he
1T
eoca
ltic
he
2T
eoca
ltic
he
3T
eoca
ltic
he
4T
eoca
ltic
he
5T
eoca
ltic
he
6T
eoca
ltic
he
7T
eoca
ltic
he
8U
nió
n d
e Sa
n A
nto
nio
Vil
la H
idal
goA
cati
cA
ran
das
1A
ran
das
2C
añad
as d
e O
bre
gón
Jalo
sto
titl
án 1
Jalo
sto
titl
án 2
Jesú
s M
aría
1Je
sús
Mar
ía 2
Mex
tica
cán
San
Ju
lián
San
Mig
uel
el A
lto
Tep
atit
lán
de
Mo
relo
s 1
Tep
atit
lán
de
Mo
relo
s 2
Val
le d
e G
uad
alu
pe
Yah
ual
ica
de
Go
nzá
lez…
Yah
ual
ica
de
Go
nzá
lez…
Yah
ual
ica
de
Go
nzá
lez…
Yah
ual
ica
de
Go
nzá
lez…
San
Ign
acio
Cer
ro…
Med
iaM
axim
aM
inim
a
Th
un
de
rsto
rms
Municipalities
Water-19, Paris, 22-24 July 2019 Pag. 31
with hail is 0, located between 0 and 1 days. On the other hand the number of days with
thunderstorms was 3, with oscillations between 0 and 14 days. The total of days with
frost is 26.7 with variations of 13 to 50 days. The average daytime temperature
oscillation is 9 °C, with a range between 8 and 11 °C.
• Región Altos Sur (Municipalities of: Acatic, Arandas, Cañadas de Obregón,
Jalostotitlán, Jesús María, Mexticacán, San Julián, San Miguel el Alto, Tepatitlán de
Morelos, Valle de Guadalupe, Yahualica de González Gallo and San Ignacio Cerro
Gordo.
This region is characterized by its semi-dry and semi-warm climate, with a more
temperate climate in Jesus Maria, Mexticacán and Valle de Guadalupe. The region is
located at an average latitude of 20.96 °N, which oscillates between 20.61 and 21.28
°N; and an average longitude of 102.59 ºW located between 102.10 and 102.90 ºW. The
average altitude is 1835 m, from 1400 to 2170 m.
The mean average temperature is 18 °C, with extremes of 15 and 20 °C. The average
minimum temperature is 9 °C, ranging between 7 and 13 °C; and the average maximum
temperature is 27 ºC, which oscillates between 22 and 30 ºC. The average relative
humidity is 53% with extremes of 41 to 65%. The prevailing winds are southeast in
direction with variable speeds.
The average precipitation is 770 mm, ranging from 662 to 902 mm. The average
evaporation of the region is 1907 mm with extremes of 1683 to 2195 mm. The number
of average days with rainfall is 73 with values between 56 and 91 days. The average
number of days with fog is 11, ranging from 1 to 71 days. The average number of days
with hail is 1, located between 0 and 3. On the other hand, the number of days with
thunderstorms was 7, with oscillations between 0 and 31 days. The total of days with
frost is 19.6 with variations from 5.3 to 32.7 days. The average daytime temperature
oscillation is 9 °C, with a range between 6 and 11 °C.
Climate indicators RClimdex
For the calculation of the indicators of climate change, a database was constructed
according to the climatological norm obtained from the site of the National
Meteorological Service (NMS) of the National Water Commission (CONAGUA) to use
the records of daily maximum and minimum temperatures as well as the amount during
daily precipitation of the period 1982 to 2003.
Water-19, Paris, 22-24 July 2019 Pag. 32
A text file was constructed with the data ordered in columns by: year, month, day,
precipitation (mm), maximum temperature (Celsius) and minimum temperature. Prior to
the execution of RClimdex, a quality control (QC) of the data was performed. Finally
with this data the RClimDex was executed.
The municipality of Lagos de Moreno presented the following indices of climate
change: decrease in average days with frost from 1 to 6 days, variation from -50 to 140
in the average of summer days, variation from -0.8 to 0.3 days in the average of tropical
nights, decrease between 0.2 and 3 days in the duration of the growing season, the
maximum monthly value of maximum daily temperature increased by 3 ° C, while the
maximum monthly value of daily minimum temperature ranged from -2 to 0.5 ° C, the
minimum monthly value of daily maximum temperature decreased from 0.5 to 4 ° C
and the minimum monthly value of daily minimum temperature ranged from -1.5 to 2.2
° C. The average monthly difference ranged from -1.5 to 1.2 ° C, the monthly maximum
precipitation in 1 day increased from 2 to 10 mm, the monthly maximum precipitation
in 5 consecutive days increased from 5 to 24 mm, the total annual precipitation divided
by the number of wet days in a year increased to 2.7 mm / day, the number of days in a
year where PRCP≥10mm ranged from -4 to 26mm, the number of days in a year where
PRCP≥20mm ranged from -2.5 to 1 days, the maximum number of consecutive days
with RR <1mm increase between 15 and 52 days, the maximum number of consecutive
days with RR≥1mm ranged from -2 to 0.5 days, the total annual rainfall at which RR>
95th percentile oscillated between -100 and 45 mm, total annual rainfall in which RR>
99th percentile increased between 30 and 75 days and total annual rainfall on wet days
(RR> = 1mm) increase between -50 and 50 mm.
Projections of Climate Change Scenarios
To obtain the projections of scenarios of climate change to 2080, the model PRECIS
(Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies), developed by the Hadley Center in
the United Kingdom, was used in a domain that covers the whole western part of the
Mexican Republic with a resolution of 25 km (the largest provided by the program) and
runs from 2000 to 2090.
The regional model used in both experiments was HadRM3P, which is based on the
HadCM3 General Circulation Model, while baseline and boundary data (which includes
predicted gas concentrations for each scenario) were provided by the Echam4 MCG in
Water-19, Paris, 22-24 July 2019 Pag. 33
the case of the SRES A2 of 1250 ppm per year by 2010 and assuming fragmented
technological changes and slower; And MCG HadCM3Q0 in the case of 850 ppm
SRES A1B, which assumes balanced use of fossil and alternative sources.
Analyzing figure 8 concludes the following:
1. The trend of air temperature in Altos de Jalisco is growing with an
increase by the end of study period of nearly 5 ° C.
2. The relative humidity is showing a reduction of about 5% by the end of study
period.
3. The Intensity of Precipitation graph exhibits a downward trend.
4. The soil temperature demonstrates an increase similar to that of the air
temperature graph with an increase at the end of the study period of more than
5 ºC.
Analyzing Figure 9, we conclude the following:
Figure 8 Behavior of air and soil temperature, relative air humidity and precipitation in
the month of July between the periods 2000-2090 in scenario A2 for the
“Altos de Jalisco” during the rainy season.
Water-19, Paris, 22-24 July 2019 Pag. 34
1. The trend of air temperature in Altos de Jalisco is also growing with an
increase by the end of study period by about 5.5 ° C, higher than that found for
period of the rainy season.
2. The relative humidity shows a strong tendency to decrease, decreasing
by about 11% by the end of study period, this is also much higher than what
was projected for the rainy months.
3. The Intensity of Precipitation graph demonstrates an alarming trend showing a
very low rainfall intensity by the end of the study.
4. The soil temperature tends to increase and the trend is similar to that of the air
temperature with an increase at the end of the study period of analysis to a
little more than 5 °C.
Figure 9 Behavior of air and soil temperature, relative air humidity and precipitation in
the month of January between the periods 2000-2090 in scenario A2 for the
Altos de Jalisco region during the dry season.
For the Altos region the scenario projections show a temperature increase of 3.5 °C for
the period of 2000-2090, with a decrease in humidity of 6%. In the A1B scenario it
shows a decrease in the intensity of precipitation and an increase of 3.6 °C in the soil
temperature. Scenario A2, shows a 5.5 °C increase in temperature, RH decreases by up
Water-19, Paris, 22-24 July 2019 Pag. 35
to 11%, there are significant decreases in precipitation intensity and increases in soil
temperature by up to 5 °C. In either scenario, the population of this region is expected is
exposed to the following risks: High water deficit with increased evapotranspiration and
decreased rainfall, water stress and increased demand for water, decrease and
disappearance of livestock areas due to thermal stress, lack of availability of water and
feed for livestock, substitution of livestock species by more resistant ones, very
important losses in the production of dairy products and meat for human consumption
in this zone that is a leader at the national level, loss of forest species, reduction in
pastures in the high regions of the state, with the consequent extinction or migration of
endemic species of the region, decreased productivity of crops in the region such as
maize where the area is a leader, decreased availability of water for human consumption
and agriculture, decreased production of agriculture and forestry, increased fires and
droughts, decrease in cultivable areas, reduced length of seasons of vegetative growth
and productive potential, risk in food security and exacerbation of malnutrition,
salinization and desertification of agricultural land, risk of significant loss of terrestrial
biodiversity, through extinction of endemic species and proliferation of invasive
species, replacement of semi-arid vegetation with arid vegetation, an increase in
endemic morbidity and mortality from diarrheal diseases, dengue, influenza, cholera,
among others, resurgence of respiratory, cardiovascular, epidermal diseases, vector-
borne diseases, contaminated water, increase in the budget allocated to health that in a
certain time would be practically unfeasible. Climate change is expected to increase
demand for heating and air conditioning in winter and summer respectively, increasing
energy demand for large cities with higher consumption of fossil fuels if no
commitment is made to the generation of renewable energies. The concentration of the
population in urban areas increases the risk of major impacts by extreme weather
events: extreme droughts among others.
Conclusion
As predicted by the IPCC (2007) for global estimates of water availability by the middle
of the century, a 10-30% decline in freshwater is forecast in dry, tropical areas (Mexico
and the state of Jalisco). Some areas are already experiencing water stress; western
Mexico is deficient in surface and groundwater. As is known, the increasing water
demands are: for irrigation to the South Coast region with demand of more than 800
million m3/a, for livestock in the Altos Norte Region with needs of more than 100
Water-19, Paris, 22-24 July 2019 Pag. 36
million m3/a, the Guadalajara metropolitan area with the highest demand for water for
human settlements with over 100 million m3/a which is not satisfied with water
available in the Central Region, which causes water demand from other regions such as
Ciénega and Altos Sur. As the century advances, the demands will be increasing, which
will lead to greater water stress in the Altos Region and the North Coast, while the
largest groundwater deficits will be presented in the Central Region, Altos Norte and
Ciénega. It is likely that as the century progresses, with the increase in temperature and
decrease in relative humidity and precipitation intensity, the amount of drought-affected
areas will increase. Likewise, a decrease in the reserves of stored water is anticipated,
which would reduce the availability of water as we approach the end of the century.
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