©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY
Itron, Inc.
Dunsky Energy Consulting
Energy Resources Center, University of Illinois Chicago
Trend Tech Energy Services, LLC
February 6, 2020
ComEd Residential, Commercial and Industrial
Saturation/End-Use Research, Market
Penetration and Potential Study
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 2
PRESENTATION OUTLINE
» Residential primary data collection methods and results (50 mins)
» Commercial primary data collection methods and results (50 mins)
» Industrial data collection methods and results (20 mins)
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 3
RESEARCH GOALS AND OBJECTIVESAs stated in the RFP…
1. Collect detailed baseline data for as
many market segments as possible
2. Develop distributions of end-use
energy consumption by segment
3. Develop trend analysis of EE market
penetration for key technologies
4. Estimate economic potential of EE
5. Characterize incremental cost-
effective potential that exists beyond
expected market trends
6. Provide a concise summary of key
findings
7. Deliver all primary and secondary
data in an easy-to-use format that
allows combination with other internal
and external datasets
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 4
PROJECT SCOPE & STATUSOverview of Task-Level Workflow and Interdependencies
Task 1: Research
and Data Collection
Task 3a: Energy
Utilization
Distributions
Task 3b: Economic
Potential
Task 4: Analysis of
ComEd EE Markets
Task 2: Market
Penetration Study
(Top-Down)
Task 2: Market
Penetration Study
(Bottom-Up)
Task 2: Market
Penetration Study
(Reconciled)
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 5
OVERVIEW OF ITRON TEAMComposition and Roles
▪ Prime bidder
▪ Overall project management
▪ Lead for:
• Task 1 (Primary Data Collection)
• Task 3a (Energy Utilization
Distributions)
• Task 4 (Analysis of ComEd EE
Markets)
▪ Subcontractor
▪ Lead for:
• Task 2 (Market Penetration Study)
• Task 3b (Economic Potential)
▪ Support for:
• Task 4 (Analysis of ComEd EE
Markets)
▪ Subcontractors
▪ Support for:
• Task 1 (Primary Data Collection)
Trend Tech Energy Services
RESIDENTIAL PRIMARY DATA COLLECTIONMethods and results
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 7
RESIDENTIAL PRIMARY DATA COLLECTIONOverview of Key Activities
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 8
RESIDENTIAL PRIMARY DATA COLLECTIONSample Frame Development
» Itron’s (formerly Silver Spring Networks’) Operations Optimizer already fully deployed at ComEd
» Operations Optimizer contains billing data (2007+), AMI data (2010+), up-to-date CIS, plus:
• Tax assessor data for most residential accounts (all of Cook County)
• Grid connectivity mapping
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 9
RESIDENTIAL PRIMARY DATA COLLECTIONSample Design
» Developed the following sample design variables in collaboration with ComEd:
• Building type (Single-family, Multi-family)
• Whole-home consumption (Low, Medium, High)
• Location (Chicago, Suburban, Other/Rural)
• Income Eligibility (Low income eligible, Non-low income eligible)
» 36 total sample strata:
• Population numbers in certain strata are small (e.g. all MF/Rural strata)
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 10
RESIDENTIAL PRIMARY DATA COLLECTIONMulti-Modal Survey Design
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 11
WHY USE A MULTI-MODAL SURVEY DESIGN?
» Several fundamental tradeoffs between sample size and depth/accuracy of data collection
• Standard web or telephone surveys: cheap (large sample sizes), but unreliable data on end-use equipment
characteristics (e.g. capacity, rated efficiency) due to lack of customer knowledge and/or user recall error
• On-site surveys: accurate data on equipment characteristics, but expensive (small sample sizes)
» Itron’s multi-modal approach designed to overcome these tradeoffs by:
• Using mass mailings of postcards to recruit customers into web survey ($25 Amazon.com gift card incentives)
• Optimizing the web survey for mobile devices
- Allows survey to leverage device mobility for room-by-room lighting inventories
- Allows survey to leverage technologies available on mobile devices (cameras, location services)
» Key features of mobile-optimized survey:
• “Self-report” questions limited to variables that customers know with a high degree of accuracy (e.g. home size,
occupancy, rent vs. own, etc.)
• Equipment characteristics collected by having customers take and upload photos of their equipment nameplates
» Bottom line: approach generates “on-site quality” baseline information at the cost and scale
of standard telephone surveys
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 12
RESIDENTIAL SURVEY BACK OFFICE WORKFLOW
Nameplate images
Self-reported data
Location validation
Make/model
lookup library• Capacity
• Efficiency
• Vintage
Image recognition
Complete site
information
Utility CIS,
Billing,
Tracking
Postcard
Incentive
OK to pay incentive
Merge final data
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 13
RESIDENTIAL PRIMARY DATA COLLECTIONSurvey Implementation
» Postcards mailed in two waves to allow for a nested sample of on-site verification surveys
» Objectives of on-site verification surveys were to:
• Verify accuracy of model numbers derived from nameplate images
• Verify accuracy of self-reported equipment ownership and lighting inventories (by type and shape)
» First wave = 5,000 postcards (mailed late March)
• Offered additional $50 Amazon.com gift card incentive to participate in on-site verifications
• >60 customers opted into on-site verification surveys
• Completed 46 on-site verifications
» Bottom line findings of on-site verifications:
• 97% of self-reported equipment ownership verified to be correct
• 94% of model numbers derived from nameplate images verified to be correct and at customer premise
» Second wave = 30,000 postcards (mailed mid-May)
Overall participation in web survey:• ~2,000 click-ins
• ~3,000 nameplate images submitted
• Analytic dataset varies from ~1,700 to ~800 (depending on
the end-use in question) due to attrition from beginning to
end of survey
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 14
SURVEY DISPOSITION BY STRATA CATEGORY
Presentation Title |
Strata Group N Survey % Survey % Pop
Housing TypeSingle Family 1,674 81% 74%
Multi Family 396 19% 26%
Geography
Chicago 674 33% 29%
Suburban 807 39% 69%
Other 589 28% 2%
Usage
High 701 34% 34%
Medium 779 38% 33%
Low 590 29% 33%
Income LevelNon-Low Income 1,364 66% 58%
Low Income 706 34% 42%
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 15
RESULTS OUTLINE…in case we’re already running behind schedule
» Household characteristics (3)
» Building envelope (2)
» Space cooling (11)
» Space heating (3)
» Thermostats (2)
» Water heating (2)
» Laundry appliances (4)
» Kitchen appliances (6)
» Interior lighting (3)
» Exterior lighting (1)
» Dehumidifiers & air purifiers (2)
» Water fixtures (1)
» Consumer electronics (2)
» Key findings (5)
» All slides = 47
» Highlighted slides = 36
Presentation Title |
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 16
HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICSAverage home size
Presentation Title |
1,856
1,372
1,874
1,5491,594
1,844
2,024
1,741
1,460
1,757
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
SFD MFD Non-LI LI Chicago Surban/Other High Medium Low
Building Type Income Eligibility Location Whole-Home Consumption Total
Ave
rage
Ft2
/Ho
me
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 17
HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICSHome ownership
Presentation Title |
96%
46%
92%
71%66%
90% 89%
81% 79%83%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SFD MFD Non-LI LI Chicago Surban/Other High Medium Low
Building Type Income Eligibility Location Whole-Home Consumption Total
Shar
e o
f H
om
e O
wn
ersh
ip
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 18
HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICSEV and PV penetration
Presentation Title |
0.9%
1.2%
0.5%
1.8%
1.4%
0.8%
1.5%
0.8%0.6%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.7%
0.4%
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
SFD MFD Non-LI LI Chicago Surban/Other High Medium Low
Building Type Income Eligibility Location Whole-Home Consumption Total
Shar
e o
f H
om
esPHEV
EV
PV
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 19
BUILDING ENVELOPEPrevailing window type
Presentation Title |
19%
35%
19%29% 28%
20% 22% 23% 23% 23%
69%
52%
69%59% 57% 69% 66% 63%
66% 65%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SFD MFD Non-LI LI Chicago Surban/Other High Medium Low
Building Type Income Eligibility Location Whole-Home Consumption Total
Shar
e o
f H
om
es
Mixture of single, double, triple pane
All or most are triple pane
All or most are double pane
All or most are single pane
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 20
BUILDING ENVELOPEShare of homes with recent insulation work
Presentation Title |
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
SFD MFD Non-LI LI Chicago Surban/Other High Medium Low
Building Type Income Eligibility Location Whole-Home Consumption Total
Shar
e o
f H
om
esAttic Floors Exterior Walls Foundation Walls Other
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 21
SPACE COOLINGSaturation of central cooling by system type
Presentation Title |
84%
43%
84%
61% 64%
82%78% 78%
71%76%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SFD MFD Non-LI LI Chicago Surban/Other High Medium Low
Building Type Income Eligibility Location Whole-Home Consumption Total
Shar
e o
f H
om
es
Other
Ductless system
Ground source heat pump
Forced air split system
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 22
SPACE COOLINGDistribution of central cooling system capacity per home
Presentation Title |
n = 1,220 obsmean = 2.87 tons
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 23
SPACE COOLINGAverage central cooling system capacity per home
Presentation Title |
2.96
2.59
3.03
2.69 2.73
2.96
3.29
2.86
2.51
2.87
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
SFD MFD Non-LI LI Chicago Surban/Other High Medium Low
Building Type Income Eligibility Location Whole-Home Consumption Total
Ave
rage
To
ns
Co
olin
g C
apac
ity
Per
Ho
me
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 24
SPACE COOLINGDistribution of central cooling system rated efficiency
Presentation Title |
n = 1,220 obsmean = 12.43 SEER
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 25
SPACE COOLINGCentral cooling systems maintenance
Presentation Title |
Within the past year36%
1-2 years ago34%
3-4 years ago10%
4-5 years ago3%
>5 years ago7%
Don't know9%
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 26
SPACE COOLINGRoom cooling saturation, average EER, and usage
Presentation Title |
10% 6% 8%
24%
14%20%
26%
33%29%
29%
28%28%
10%19% 14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SFD MFD
Building Type Total
Shar
e o
f Ho
mes
wit
h R
AC
Always (7 days per week)
Often (5-6 days per week)
Sometimes (3-4 days per week)
Rarely (1-2 days per week)
Never
Segment Saturation
Average Rated
EER
Share of Units
<6 years old
SFD 10% 10.16 49%
MFD 40% 10.44 49%
Total 18% 10.32 49%
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 27
SPACE COOLINGSaturation of fans used for room cooling
Presentation Title |
79%
63%
79%
70% 70%
77% 78% 77%
69%
75%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SFD MFD Non-LI LI Chicago Surban/Other High Medium Low
Building Type Income Eligibility Location Whole-Home Consumption Total
Shar
e o
f H
om
esWhole-house or attic fan Ceiling fan Window fan Portable fan
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 28
SPACE COOLINGUtilization analysis
» Despite collecting data to characterize distribution of rated efficiency and capacity of space cooling
equipment, space cooling energy consumption also greatly impacted by building envelope
performance and customer behavior
• Result is that space cooling consumption varies more widely (at the customer-level) than any other
major electric end use
» In turn, analyzing cost-effectiveness of space cooling measures in aggregate (e.g. when estimating
economic potential) can introduce significant “aggregation bias”
• When point averages that indicate a given measure is not cost-effective for a given segment, when
in fact it is cost-effective for a significant portion of that segment
» ComEd expressed a strong interest in using data collection and analysis approaches designed to
minimize aggregation bias wherever possible
• For most major residential end uses, we can adequately characterize the distribution of end-use
energy consumption based on large samples of rated capacity and efficiency data
• For space cooling, we augmented our rich data set with a dedicated analysis designed to
characterize the distribution of space cooling energy consumption using two main analytic
frameworks – load disaggregation and cluster analysis
Presentation Title |
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 29
SPACE COOLINGUtilization analysis
» Itron’s Operations Optimizer data analytics platform include a load disaggregation module
» OO combines statistical regressions of AMI and weather data with physics-based calculations that
take into building square footage and vintage (available from tax assessor data) to estimate load
associated with space cooling
• Enabled OO’s load disagg module on a one-time basis to generate space cooling estimates for
each of the customers that responded to our web survey
• Modified load disagg algorithm to use customer-specific CAC capacity and SEER values as inputs
» Used modified algorithm to generate customer-specific space cooling consumption estimates that
are calibrated to actual customer load, home size, home vintage, and CAC capacity and SEER
(1,277 customers total)
» Next objective was to identify the best way to group customers such that the aggregate results for
those groups adequately reflected the full distribution of space cooling consumption
» Used k-means cluster analysis to characterize distribution of space cooling into 3, 6, 9, and 12
clusters
Presentation Title |
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 30
SPACE COOLINGUtilization analysis
Presentation Title |
3 Clusters 6 Clusters 12 Clusters
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 31
SPACE COOLINGUtilization analysis
» Primary objective of cluster analysis was to
provide a data-driven basis to define segments
for potential modeling that minimized
aggregation bias for space cooling measures
» Analyzed characteristics of customers in each
cluster to identify variables in our sample frame
that best explain differences between clusters
• Building type (SFD, MFD)
• Whole-home consumption (H, M, L)
• Home size (<2,000 ft2, >=2,000 ft2)
• Low-income program eligibility
» Collapsed several segments with very low
customer populations, similar average space
cooling consumption, and/or similar market
adoption barriers
» Final segments for potential modeling (9):
Presentation Title |
Segment Avg CAC kWh/yr
01.SFD-H-<2Kft2-nonLI 3,054
02.SFD-H->2Kft2-nonLI 2,862
03.SFD-M-<2Kft2-nonLI 2,089
04.SFD-M->2Kft2-nonLI 1,799
05.SFD-L-nonLI 1,190
06.MFD-H-nonLI 2,208
07.MFD-M-nonLI 921
08.MFD-L-nonLI 1,037
09.SFD-<2Kft2-LI 2,077
10.SFD->2Kft2-LI 2,508
11.MFD-LI 2,475
Total 2,127
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 32
SPACE HEATINGSaturation of central heating by technology and fuel
Presentation Title |
78%
44%
70%
8%
13%
9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SFD MFD
Building Type Total
Shar
e o
f H
om
es
Other
Portable space heater
Ground-source heat pump
Ductless heat pump
Air-source central heat pump
Electric baseboard heater
Propane boiler
Electric boiler
Gas boiler
Propane furnace
Electric furnace
Gas furnace
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 33
SPACE HEATINGCentral heating systems maintenance
Presentation Title |
Within the past year26%
1-2 years ago22%
3-4 years ago7%
4-5 years ago3%
>5 years ago7%
Don't know35%
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 34
SPACE HEATINGPortable space heating ownership and usage
Presentation Title |
7% 7% 7%
24%13%
21%
23%
27%
24%
26% 40% 30%
21%13%
19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SFD MFD
Building Type Total
Shar
e o
f H
om
es w
ith
Ele
ctri
c R
oo
m H
eate
rs
Always (7 days per week)
Often (5-6 days per week)
Sometimes (3-4 days per week)
Rarely (1-2 days per week)
Never
Segment Saturation
SFD 12%
MFD 17%
Total 14%
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 35
THERMOSTATSSaturation of thermostats by type
Presentation Title |
25%16%
24%
43%
24%
39%
31%
52%
35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SFD MFD
Building Type Total
Shar
e o
f Ho
mes
No thermostat
Standard thermostat
Programmable thermostat
Communicating thermostat
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 36
THERMOSTATSFrequency of overriding programmed thermostat settings
Presentation Title |
Never Programmed
24%
Frequently Override7%
Regularly Override14%
Occasionally Override33%
Rarely Override40%
Never Override7%
Programmed76%
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 37
WATER HEATINGFuel shares of water heating
Presentation Title |
Natural gas85%
Propane2%
Fuel oil0.1% Solar
0.1%
Other fuel0.1%
Don't know4%
Conventional storage7%
Heat pump storage
0.3%
Tankless0.5%
Tankless coil
0.1%
Don't know1.0%
Electricity9%
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 38
WATER HEATINGSaturation of insulation measures for electric water heating systems
Presentation Title |
Yes7%
No67%
Don't know26%
Share with Tank Wrap
Yes17%
No50%
Don't know33%
Share with Pipe Wrap
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 39
LAUNDRY APPLIANCESSaturation of clothes washers
Presentation Title |
68%
45%
63%
30%
17%
27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SFD MFD
Building Type Total
Shar
e o
f Ho
mes
No clothes washer
Front-loading clothes washer
Top-loading clothes washer
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 40
LAUNDRY APPLIANCESDistribution of clothes washers rated efficiency (Modified Energy Factor)
Presentation Title |
n = 989 obsmean = 1.89 MEF
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 41
LAUNDRY APPLIANCESSaturation of clothes dryers
Presentation Title |
17%28% 25%
56%
59%57%
27%
11%17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Chicago Suburban/Other
Location Total
Shar
e o
f Ho
me
s
No clothes dryer
Bottled gas clothes dryer
Natural gas clothes dryer
Electric clothes dryer
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 42
LAUNDRY APPLIANCESDistribution of clothes dryer rated efficiency (Combined Energy Factor)
Presentation Title |
n = 244 obsmean = 3.28 CEF
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 43
KITCHEN APPLIANCESSaturation of refrigerators
Presentation Title |
75%
91%
76%83% 84%
76% 72%79%
85%79%
21%
7%
21%14% 12%
21%24%
18%12%
18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SFD MFD Non-LI LI Chicago Surban/Other High Medium Low
Building Type Income Eligibility Location Whole-Home Consumption Total
Shar
e o
f H
om
es
None
3 or more units
2 units
1 unit
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 44
KITCHEN APPLIANCESDistribution of refrigerator rated annual consumption (kWh/yr)
Presentation Title |
n = 934 obsmean = 567 kWh/yr
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 45
KITCHEN APPLIANCESSaturation of stand-alone freezers
Presentation Title |
22%
11%
20% 19%
15%
22%
25%
19%
14%
20%
1%
1%
1% 1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
0%
1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
SFD MFD Non-LI LI Chicago Surban/Other High Medium Low
Building Type Income Eligibility Location Whole-Home Consumption Total
Shar
e o
f H
om
es3 or more units
2 units
1 unit
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 46
KITCHEN APPLIANCESDistribution of stand-alone freezer rated annual consumption (kWh/yr)
Presentation Title |
n = 178 obsmean = 460 kWh/yr
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 47
KITCHEN APPLIANCESSaturation of dishwashers
Presentation Title |
67%
39%
73%
40%45%
69%65% 65%
52%
62%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
SFD MFD Non-LI LI Chicago Surban/Other High Medium Low
Building Type Income Eligibility Location Whole-Home Consumption Total
Shar
e o
f H
om
es
3 or more units
2 units
1 unit
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 48
KITCHEN APPLIANCESDistribution of dishwasher rated annual consumption (kWh/yr)
Presentation Title |
n = 570 obsmean = 339 kWh/yr
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 49
INTERIOR LIGHTINGAverage number of sockets by technology
Presentation Title |
22.7
11.9
19.9
4.7
2.9
4.2
8.4
2.3
6.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
SFD MFD
Building Type Total
Ave
rage
So
cket
s p
er H
om
e
Don't know
Other
Infrared
Halogen
Fluorescent Tube
Incandescent
CFL
LED
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 50
INTERIOR LIGHTINGAverage number of sockets by technology
Presentation Title |
22.6
16.119.9
4.9
3.2
4.2
8.8
4.1
6.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Non-LI LI
Income Eligibility Total
Ave
rage
So
cket
s p
er H
om
e
Don't know
Other
Infrared
Halogen
Fluorescent Tube
Incandescent
CFL
LED
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 51
INTERIOR LIGHTINGAverage number of sockets by technology and lamp shape
Presentation Title |
2.3
0.2
1.1
0.10
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
LED CFL Incandescent Halogen
Ave
rage
So
cke
ts p
er
Ho
me
Specialty
Reflector
Standard
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 52
INTERIOR LIGHTINGReplace on burnout plans
Presentation Title |
62%54%
61%
12%
34%42%
24%
3% 4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Incandescentburnout
Halogen burnout CFL burnout
Shar
e o
f Res
po
nd
ents
Replace with incandescent
Replace with halogen
Replace with CFL
Replace with LED
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 53
EXTERIOR LIGHTINGAverage number of sockets by technology and control type
Presentation Title |
22%
29%
23%
20%
28%
20%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
SFD MFD
Building Type Total
Share
of In
cand
esce
nts/H
alogen
s Co
ntro
lled
Ave
rage
So
cke
ts p
er
Ho
me
LED or CFL
Incandescent or Halogen
…by Timers
…by Motion Sensors
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 54
DEHUMIDIFIERS & AIR PURIFIERSSaturation of air purifiers, dehumidifiers, and humidifiers
Presentation Title |
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
SFD MFD
Building Type Total
Shar
e o
f Ho
mes
Air purifier Dehumidifier Humidifier
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 55
DEHUMIDIFIERS & AIR PURIFIERSUsage of air purifiers and dehumidifiers
Presentation Title |
4% 6%
12%20%
12%
26%14%
10%
58%
38%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Air Purifier Dehumidifier
Shar
e o
f Ho
mes
wit
h A
ir P
uri
fier
s/D
ehu
mid
ifie
rs
>11 months
9-11 months
7-9 months
4-6 months
<=3 months
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 56
WATER FIXTURESAverage number of water fixtures and saturation of water efficiency measures
Presentation Title |
49%
38%
47%
61%
51%
60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
SFD MFD
Building Type Total
Share o
f Fixtures
Nu
mb
er o
f Fi
xtu
res
Per
Ho
me
Number of faucets
Number of showerheads
% Faucets with aerators
% Low-flow showerheads
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 57
CONSUMER ELECTRONICSSaturation of smart power strips and systems controlled in those homes
Presentation Title |
30%
7%
89%
60%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Tier 1 Tier 2 TV/Cable Computer Other
Smart Strip Penetration(Share of Homes)
Systems Controlled(Share of Homes with Smart Strips)
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 58
CONSUMER ELECTRONICSSaturation of voice-activated devices and systems controlled in those homes
Presentation Title |
10%
42%
27%
43%
13%
59%
11% 12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
TVs
Mob
ile d
evic
es
Smar
t sp
eake
rs
Ente
rtai
nm
ent
Ligh
tin
g
Mob
ile d
evic
e
Ther
mo
stat
Oth
er
Voice-Activated Device Penetration(Share of Homes)
Systems Controlled(Share of Homes with Voice-Activated Devices)
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 59
KEY FINDINGSLEDs have become the dominant residential lighting technology
Presentation Title |
End-Use/Technology Metric 2012 Baseline Study 2019 Baseline Study
All SFD MFD All SFD MFD
Lighting
Incandescent Share of all sockets 65% 66% 60% 19% 20% 11%
CFL Share of all sockets 20% 19% 24% 12% 11% 14%
Linear Fluorescent Share of all sockets 8% 9% 5% 5% 5% 6%
Halogen Share of all sockets 6% 5% 11% 3% 3% 3%
LED Share of all sockets 1% 1% 0% 55% 54% 58%
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 60
KEY FINDINGSSmall increase in CAC efficiency, but little evidence of fuel switching away from gas
Presentation Title |
End-Use/Technology Metric 2012 Baseline Study 2019 Baseline Study
All SFD MFD All SFD MFD
Space Cooling
Central air conditioner Share of all homes 73% 87% 46% 80% 87% 48%
…<14 SEER Share of all CAC systems 93% - - 87%
Space Heating
Primary electric space heating Share of all homes 10% 4% 24% 9% 8% 13%
…Heat pump Share of all homes 2% - - 2% 2% 1%
Water Heating
Electric water heating Share of all homes 8% 6% 13% 9% 8% 11%
Water heater tank wrap Share of all homes 3% - - 7%
Hot water pipe wrap Share of all homes 9% - - 17%
Faucet aerators Share of all homes 62% - - 47% 49% 38%
Low-flow showerheads Share of all homes 40% - - 60% 61% 51%
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 61
KEY FINDINGSStrong evidence of impact of ComEd’s appliance recycling programs
Presentation Title |
End-Use/Technology Metric 2012 Baseline Study 2019 Baseline Study
All SFD MFD All SFD MFD
Laundry Appliances
Clothes washers Share of all homes 80% 98% 47% 90% 98% 62%
Electric clothes dryers Share of all homes 25% 26% 23% 25% 27% 17%
Kitchen Appliances
Refrigerator Share of all homes 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 100%
Secondary refrigerator Share of all homes 30% 42% 7% 20% 24% 9%
Standalone freezer Share of all homes 31% 40% 13% 21% 23% 21%
Dishwasher Share of all homes 67% 75% 54% 63% 68% 41%
Room HVAC
Window air conditioner Share of all homes 30% 18% 52% 18% 10% 40%
Air purifier/humidifier Share of all homes 36% 31% 27% 16% 18% 12%
Dehumidifier Share of all homes 23% 34% 5% 12% 16% 3%
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 62
KEY FINDINGSLaundry appliance stock turnover likely to be highest in near-term (compared to other appliances)
Presentation Title |
n = 244 obsmean = 3.28 CEF
n = 934 obsmean = 567 kWh/yr
n = 570 obsmean = 339 kWh/yr
n = 989 obsmean = 1.89 MEF
1994
1994
2001
2010
©2017 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY 63
KEY FINDINGSPenetration of “new” consumer technologies is already significant
» Penetration of the newest consumer technologies which control or have the potential to
control aspects of residential energy consumption is already significant
• Communicating thermostats = 24% (commercially available since 2011)
• Smart power strips = 37% (commercially available since 2011)
• Voice-activated smart speakers = 30% (commercially available since 2016)
» These markets are highly dynamic and should be considered in stark contrast to those
of the other major residential end uses
» These devices currently control only a very small portion of residential load, but the
potential (and probability) for these technologies to influence a much larger percentage
of residential load in the very near future is significant
Presentation Title |
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