Community Air Risk Evaluation (CARE)
ProgramPhilip Martien, Ph.D.
Senior Advanced Projects AdvisorBay Area Air Quality Management District
CAPCOA ConferenceHealth Impacts of Air Pollution on Communities
September 19-20, 2007
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 2
BAAQMD Background• Regional Air Pollution
Control Agency• Programs to reduce
regional smog and particulate matter (PM)
• Wood-smoke reduction programs
• Climate protection program
• Community Air Risk Evaluation (CARE) program
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 3
CARE Program Objectives• Evaluate regional and
community cancer and non-cancer health risk from ambient toxic air contaminants (TAC)
• Focus health risk mitigation measures on locations with higher risk levels and sensitive populations
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 4
From Emissions of Toxic Air Contaminants to Health
Effects
Chronicle/Kurt Rogers
Emissions Concentrations Exposure Health Effects
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 5
CARE Program: A Three Phase Design
Spring ’04 Fall ’06 Summer ’08 Fall ’09
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 6
CARE Task Force
• 15 members represent government agencies, businesses, health professionals, and community groups
• Provide feedback to District staff on CARE program
• Conduct expert review of work products
• Represent community perspective
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 7
Phase I: Develop TAC Emissions Estimates
• Preliminary TAC emission inventory– Quantify emissions totals
– Map emissions within the Bay Area
• Evaluate and improve TAC inventory– Several rounds of critical review
– Improvements to on-road diesel emissions
– Evaluation of emissions using observations
• Demographic & health data
• Target areas for grant funding
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 8
Cancer Toxicity-Weighted Emissions
By Pollutant
Diesel Particulates
81%
Chromium (hexavalent)
4%
Formaldehyde1%
Benzene5%
Other3%
1,3-Butadiene6%
Construction Equipment
34%
Ships6%
Farm Equipment
4%
Construction & Demolition
3%
Aircraft2%
Recreational Boats1%
Locomotives2%
Other6%
Onroad Mobile
Sources32%
Industrial Fuel Consumption
1%
Industrial & Commercial Equipment
9%
By Source Category
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 9
Chronic, Non-Cancer Toxicity-Weighted
EmissionsBy Pollutant
Acrolein48%
Formaldehyde20%
Cadmium1%
Benzene1%
Butyl cellosolve
1%
Acetaldehyde3%
Manganese4%
Arsenic2%
Nickel1% Other
5%
Diesel Particulates
14%
Aircraft24%
Onroad Mobile
Sources33%
Construction & Mining Equipment
9%
Lawn & Garden
Equipment6%
Recreational Boats4%
Industrial & Commercial Equipment
4%
Ships1%
Paved Road Dust2%
Residential Fuel
Combustion 2%
Solvent Evaporation
3%
Construction & Demolition
3%
Other9%
By Source Category
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 10
Acute Toxicity-Weighted Emissions
By Pollutant By Source Category
Formaldehyde4.0%
Other0.2%
Nickel0.1%
Benzene0.2%Arsenic
1.5%
Acrolein94.0%
Lawn & Garden
Equipment9%
Recreational Boats6%
Other7%
Onroad Mobile
Sources38%
Aircraft40%
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 11
Comparison to Ambient
Measurements
• BAAQMD lab (15 sites) and CARB lab (5 sites)
• Measurements made on a 1-in-12 day schedule
• Data for 1999-2001 used• Quarterly averaged annual
averages
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 12
Ambient VOC Toxic Concentrations vs. Emissions:
Livermore siteTotal
EmissionsAmbient
Concentrations
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 13
Percent Overlap Between Ambient Concentrations and Emissions
VOCs, excluding three compounds frequently below detection limits
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Vallejo
Santa Rosa
San Rafael
San Leandro
San Jose
San Francisco
Richmond - 7th St
Redwood City
Oakland-Davie
Napa
Livermore
Fremont
Fort Cronkite
Crockett
Concord
Bethel Island
ARB
BAAQMD
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 14
Cancer Risk Comparison
• Comparing fractions of lifetime cancer risk from various toxic compounds
• VOCs, chromium VI, diesel PM– need to estimate diesel concentrations– used elemental carbon measurements
(IMPROVE method) to estimate diesel PM
• ARB measurements used– they include formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and
chromium VI– 1,3-butadiene better estimated
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 15
Cancer Risk: Emissions vs. Ambient: San Jose site
Total Emissions
Ambient Concentrations
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 16
• Good agreement between emissions fractions and ambient concentrations
• Good agreement between risk components based on emissions vs. ambient concentrations– Risk from diesel PM greatest, followed by benzene and
1,3-butadiene– Risk overlap from 79% to 92%
• Emissions inventory diesel risk greater than ambient
• Might be a problem with the area source inventory, perhaps construction equipment
Comparison Summary
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 17
Emissions Spatial DistributionDiesel Particulate
MatterAcrolein
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 18
Demographic & Health DataPopulation under 18 Asthma Hospitalization
Rates
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 19
Phase I Findings – Risks from Emitted Pollutants
• About 80% of the emissions weighted by cancer risk are from diesel PM
• About 50% of the emissions weighted by chronic non-cancer risk are from acrolein
• More than 90% of the acute non-cancer risk is also from acrolein
• There are uncertainties associated with the determination of risk
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 20
Phase I Findings - Sources• On-road and off-road diesel emissions–
including trucks, construction, shipping, rail–are large sources of cancer risk
• Gasoline powered vehicles and aircraft are large contributors to non-cancer risk
• The highest densities of diesel PM and acrolein are in eastern S.F. and western Alameda & Contra Costa counties
• These areas also have large numbers of sensitive people
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 21
Mitigation Approaches • Target appropriate mitigation measures to
areas with high TAC emissions and sensitive populations– Focus grant and incentive funding for reducing
mobile-source emissions in target areas
– Enhance information campaigns
– Form local partnerships on issues related to development, housing, and transportation to reduce risk
– Develop model ordinances
– Regulate emissions from stationary and indirect sources
– Support & sponsor legislation
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 22
Next Steps Phase II: Modeling Concentrations
and Continued Mitigation
• Continue to improve emissions estimates– Update to 2005
– Update speciation profiles where possible
• Local & regional modeling– Participate in health risk assessments
• Enhanced measurements
• Additional mitigation measures
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 23
West Oakland Health Risk Assessment
• Local-scale modeling with CALPUFF (diesel PM) • 100 km x 100 km receptor domain• Three-part source domain
Land sourcesPart 1: Port of OaklandPart 2: Union Pacific Rail YardPart 3: West Oakland
Water sources
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 24
Supplemental TAC Measurements
• EPA local-scale air toxics ambient monitoring grant
• Increase density of air quality measurements in West Oakland via “saturation monitoring” – Characterize local-scale pollutant concentrations– Identify “hot spots” – Characterize concentration gradients
• Time integrated and continuous monitoring• Mobile monitoring
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 25
Additional Mitigation Measures
• Propose new regulations and modify existing regulations– Green Ports Initiative – Other stationary sources
• Focus grant and incentive funding in areas with high emissions and/or sensitive populations– Carl Moyer Grants
– Transportation Fund for Clean Air Grants
• Develop guidance for cities, counties, and other public agencies to incorporate in general plans, municipal codes, or other local plans/programs
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 26
• Air District Staff: David Fairley, Cuong Tran, Amir Fanai, Eric Stevenson
• Sonoma Technology Inc.: Steve Reid
• Desert Research Institute: Eric Fujita
• California Air Resources Board: Dan Donohoue
Acknowledgments
September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 27
Contact Information
• http://www.baaqmd.gov/CARE
• Phil Martien: [email protected]