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Air Cargo Market Outlook for Africa
Tom CrabtreeAirline Market Analysis - Cargo
Boeing Commercial Airplanes23 February 2011
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The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and provided for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance Actual results may vary depending on certain events or conditions. This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose other thanthat intended by Boeing.
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2009 Air Cargo Growth by Major Market
World -11.3%
Intra-North America -12.6%Latin America – North America -14.5%Latin America – Europe -6.3%Europe – North America -21.0%Intra-Europe -10.7%Middle East – Europe -14.9%Africa – Europe -8.0%Asia – North America -12.9%Europe – Asia -10.3%Intra-Asia -7.5%South Asia – Europe -11.3%Domestic China 12.3%
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World Air Cargo Traffic Growth Has Averaged 6.1% Per Year Since 1970
-4.1%
12.1%10.5%9.9%
7.8%
3.7%
9.8%
6.1%5.4%
2.4%
12.2%
1.9%
12.1%13.3%
9.8%
-2.1%
2.6%
9.3%
12.5%
10.3%
7.1%
12.2%
0.1%
8.5%
-5.3%
6.5%
4.1%
11.6%
3.4%3.3%
-1.8%
-11.3%
5.8%
1.9%
10.7%9.6%
0.9%
6.4%
10.1% 10.5%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
% C
hang
e in
Car
go T
raff
ic, Y
ear-
Ove
r-Y
ear
0
50
100
150
200
250
Wor
ld A
ir C
argo
Tra
ffic,
RTK
s, b
illio
ns
% Traffic ChangeActual Traffic, Revenue Tonne Kilometers (RTKs)
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World Air Cargo Grew 20.0% for Jan-Nov 2010 Relative to Traffic Levels for Jan-Nov 2009
YTD Year-Over Comparison
World
Year To Date Air Cargo Growth by Regional Market
Jan - Nov 2010 vs. Jan - Nov 2009: 20.0%
22.5%-0.6%
43.5%4.1%
21.1%
34.4%
18.3%
20.0%
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, AAPA, AEA, ATA, and the Boeing World Cargo Forecast.
5.2%
7.8%
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African Air Cargo Activity is Concentrated in Egypt, South Africa, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Kenya
Sources: Airports Council International (ACI), ICAO, Eurostat and Boeing Research.
Airport Tonnage HandledYear 2009
Cairo 285,839Nairobi 263,070Johannesburg 252,063Lagos 175,828Luxor 103,541Brazzaville 88,183Cape Town* 75,361Addis Ababa 74,119Kinshasa 67,544Khartoum 59,299
* Boeing estimate
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North America7.8%
Middle East13.2% Europe
65.6%
Asia6.2%Africa
6.4%
Latin America0.9%
Europe is Africa's Primary Air Trade Partner
1,559,000 tonnes
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300
400
500
600
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Africa Exports
Africa Imports
Tonnes, thousands
Africa - Europe Air Trade Has Grown 3.3% Per Year
Average annual growth,
1999 – 2009
Africa imports 4.6%
Africa exports 2.1%
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0
30
60
90
120
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Africa Imports
Africa Exports
Tonnes, thousands
Africa - North America Air Trade Has Grown at 5.9% Per Year
Average annual growth,
1999 – 2009
Africa imports 8.6%
Africa exports 0.6%
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Manufactured goods33.3%
Machinery and transport equipment
53.0%
Other8.7%
Chemicals & related
products5.0%
African air imports from Asia
85,000 tonnes
Chemicals and related
products17.6%
Other12.1%
Machinery and
transport equipment
36.8%
Food and live animals
28.9%
African air exports to Asia
11,000 tonnes
African Air Imports and Exports to Asia
Manufacturedgoods 4.6%
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029
Tonnes, thousands
History Forecast
2.1% growth per year
HighBaseLow
Average annual growth,
2009–2029
High 5.8%
Base 4.4%
Low 3.1%
Africa to Europe Air Trade Will Average 4.4% Growth Per Year
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029
Tonnes, thousands
History Forecast
4.6% growth per year
Average annual growth,
2009–2029
High 6.4%
Base 5.7%
Low 5.1%
Europe to Africa Air Trade Will Average 5.7% Growth Per Year
HighBaseLow
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World Air Cargo Traffic Will Triple Over the Next 20 Years
0
200
400
600
800
1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029
HighBaseLow
History Forecast
Average annual growth, 2009 to 2029
High 6.6%
Base 5.9%
Low 5.2%
1.9% growth per year
RTKs, billions
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Asia Markets Will Continue to Lead Industry Growth
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Intra Europe
Europe-S Asia
Europe-Middle East
Europe-Africa
North America-Latin America
Europe-Latin America.
Domestic China
North America
North America-Europe
Intra Asia
Europe-Asia
North America-Asia
2009 RTKs 2010 – 2029 RTKs
6.7%
Annual growth, percentage
6.6%
7.9%
4.2%
3.0%
5.6%
9.2%
5.7%
5.1%
6.5%
6.0%
3.6%
RTKs, billions
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BAe-146 707 767* MD-11DC-9* DC-8* A300* 747*737* 757-200 A310* 777727* A320* L-1011SF A350Tu-204 MD-80* DC-10* A380
787 IL-96TA330* AN-124777-A SFIL-76TD
Freighter Fleet is Groupedinto Size Categories
Standard-body Medium Widebody Large(< 45 tonnes) (40 - 80 tonnes) (> 80 tonnes)
*Represents a series
Note: Production and conversion (SF) models assumed for each type unless otherwise specified
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Freighter Fleet Increase Reflects World Traffic
Total airplanes: 1,755
Total airplanes: 2,967
Total airplanes, percentage
37%
36%36%
27%
40%
27%27%
33%
Large (>80 tonnes)
Medium widebody (40-80 tonnes)
Standard-body (<45 tonnes)
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North America Leads in Total Deliveries; Asia, in Large Freighters
0
400
800
1,200
North America Asia Pacific Europe and CIS Middle East andAfrica
Latin America
Large (>80 tons)
Medium widebody (40-80 tons)
Standard-body (<45 tons)
Number of airplanes
84
63
66
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Boeing Offers a Complete Line of Freighters
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Rev
enu
e P
aylo
ad,
lbR
evenu
e Paylo
ad, M
etric To
ns
Range, nmi
25
50
75
100
125
737-700C
MD-11BCF
767-300F
757-200SF
767-300ER BCF
777F
747-8F
747-400BCF
777-200ER BCF
*Note: Product Development Study
767-300BCF*
737-300SF
737-400SF
777-200BCF
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Air Cargo Market Outlook for AfricaSummary
After the worst-ever downturn, world air cargo has made a remarkable comeback, demonstrating its vital role in global commerce.
African air cargo markets will expand in the range 5% to 8% per year, with Europe remaining the primary air trade partner for the continent.
World air cargo traffic levels will triple over the next two decades, with long-haul markets linked to Asia leading growth.
The world freighter fleet will expand by more than two-thirds to nearly 3000 aircraft by 2029. African and Middle East carriers will take delivery of over 200 freighter aircraft in this timeframe.
Boeing Offers the Most Complete Freighter Product Line.
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World Air Cargo Forecast 2010-2011
www.boeing.com/commercial/cargowww.boeing.com/commercial/cargo