CURRENT SITUATION AND STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTOF RUSSIAN GAS INDUSTRY
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CURRENT SITUATIONAND STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT
OF RUSSIAN GAS INDUSTRY
DEPUTY HEAD OF STRATEGICDEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT
S. PANKRATOV
CURRENT SITUATION AND STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTOF RUSSIAN GAS INDUSTRY
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World Gross Domestic Product
-7.5
-5
-2.5
0
2.5
5
7.5
%
NAFTA* WesternEurope
Japan OtherAmericas
EmergingEurope
Mideast-N.Africa
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Other Asia-Pacific
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
* - North American Free Trade Agreement
CURRENT SITUATION AND STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTOF RUSSIAN GAS INDUSTRY
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Energy demand (IEA scenario)
34.0%20.9%
25.7%
19.4%
Oil Coil Gas Other
30.0%
21.2% 28.6%
20.2%
2007 2030
Total: 12.0 btoe Total: 16.8 btoe
2007 2030 Growth in 2007-2030 period, %
Oil, MB/day 85 105 24
Gas, BCM 3.0 4.3 41
World oil and gas demand (basic scenario)
CURRENT SITUATION AND STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTOF RUSSIAN GAS INDUSTRY
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Global economic crisis and Russian economy
-11.5%
-5%-7.3%
-35%
-18.9%
Industrial outputEnergy
resourcesGas
consumption Total export Gas export
RUSSIA
GAS PRODUCTION DECREASE BY 12.3 %
GLOBALECONOMIC CRISIS
CURRENT SITUATION AND STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTOF RUSSIAN GAS INDUSTRY
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Gas Consumption in Russia
85%93%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2008 2009
CURRENT SITUATION AND STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTOF RUSSIAN GAS INDUSTRY
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Gas Demand Forecast For Domestic Market
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Fall of industrial production and gas
consumption
Growth of industrial
production and gas
consumption
Stabilization of country's economy
Reaching the pre-crisis level of
economic performance
Progressive development of economy and growth of gas
consumption
CURRENT SITUATION AND STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTOF RUSSIAN GAS INDUSTRY
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Gazprom group's natural gas export supplies 2008-2009
2008 2009
90%
58%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
CURRENT SITUATION AND STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTOF RUSSIAN GAS INDUSTRY
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380
480
580
680
2009 2010 2015 2020
- Eastern Siberia and Far East- Arctic Shelf- New fields in Nadym-Pur-Taz
- Fields of Yamal peninsula- Currently existing projects- Gas Production Alternatives
Gas Production Scenarios
Adaptive scenarios allow Gazprom to mobilise reserves in a timely manneraccording to market demand as well as to develop its production and transportation system
as needed, do not create excess capacity
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2009 2020
≥ 620 bcm
380
480
580
680
2009 2010 2015 2020
CURRENT SITUATION AND STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTOF RUSSIAN GAS INDUSTRY
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Natural gas reserves of Russian Federation
48 33
Proved reserves
Total resources – 250 tcm Proved reserves – 48 tcm
GAZPROM’sproved reserves
26%26%SHARE RUSSIAN PROVEDRESERVES IN WORLD
RESERVESREPLACEMENTRATIO
NEXT 10 YEARS>1
CURRENT SITUATION AND STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTOF RUSSIAN GAS INDUSTRY
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Russian Unified Gas Supply System (UGSS)
Gas fields in exploration andproduction - 122Total length of gaspipelines, km - 159 500Compressor stations (CS) - 219Total compressorcapacity, MMkW - 42Underground storage facilities - 25Average distanceof gastransportation throughRussia, km - 2900
CURRENT SITUATION AND STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTOF RUSSIAN GAS INDUSTRY
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-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2008 2030
Mto
e
Production Import Consumption Export
53,2 %
46,8 %
95,6
38,7
61,3
96,6 %
3,4 4,4
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2008 2030
Mto
eOil, oil products, coal and others Gas
57% 68%
32% 43%
20082030
* to 2005 year level
43% DOUBLEDOUBLEDECREASEDECREASE
New Russian Energy Strategy 2030
19%14% 22%
45%53%
18% 19%10%
Total Final ConsumptionTotal Final Consumption
GDP Energy Intensity GDP Energy Intensity Primary Energy ResourcesPrimary Energy Resources
20302008
OilOthers
GASGAS::VOLUME INCREASE,VOLUME INCREASE,SHARE DECREASESHARE DECREASE
GasGas
OilCoal
OthersCoal
Energy Resources ExportEnergy Resources Export
85*%
CURRENT SITUATION AND STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTOF RUSSIAN GAS INDUSTRY
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Scenarios for Gas Demand
RussiaRussia
NorthNorth--East AsiaEast Asia
Europe, FSU and Baltic CountriesEurope, FSU and Baltic Countries
USA USA
LONGTERM LONGTERM CONTRACTSCONTRACTS
COMPETITIONCOMPETITION
0
200
400
600
2008 2010 2015 2020
0
200
400
600
2008 2010 2015 2020
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2008 2010 2015 2020
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2008 2010 2015 2020
CURRENT SITUATION AND STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTOF RUSSIAN GAS INDUSTRY
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300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2008 2010 2015 2020
European market natural gas demand forecast
2020 Forecast, bcm Natural gas demand in Europe (2009 forecasts turndown), bcm
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
IEA
200
9
DO
E 20
09
CER
A 2
009
EC 2
008
Euro
gas
2009 IG
U
Natural gas demand in Europe in 2008
CURRENT SITUATION AND STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTOF RUSSIAN GAS INDUSTRY
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Capital Expenditures Programs*
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2009-2012 2013-2016 2017-2020
New projects
Reconstruction
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2009-2012 2013-2016 2017-2020
Capital Expenditures (annual average)Capital Expenditures (annual average)* within Unified GasSupply System
ProductionProduction TransportationTransportation
0
250
500
750
1 000
2009-2012 2013-2016 2017-2020
bln
RR
p.a
. Exploration Production TransportationProcessing Others
CURRENT SITUATION AND STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTOF RUSSIAN GAS INDUSTRY
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CURRENT SITUATIONAND STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT
OF RUSSIAN GAS INDUSTRY
DEPUTY HEAD OF STRATEGICDEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT
S. PANKRATOV