Demonstrating the
hydro-ecological
response to the return
of low flows in the
MLRDr Sally MaxwellDepartment of Environment, Water and Natural
Resources
Planning context
Types of monitoring
Condition monitoring:
• Establishing long-term trends
Intervention Monitoring:
• Response to key management actions
(shorter time frame)
Key question:
To what extent has implementation of low flows
resulted in the maintenance or improvement in
condition of water dependent ecosystems in the
MLR?
(a) There is evidence of clear economic benefits,
environmental benefits and social benefits (particularly for
irrigation communities) demonstrable over a 20 year horizon
(particularly through quantitative data), including a positive
cost-benefit outcome for a range of feasible investment and
water availability parameters for each recommended scenario,
compared with a no change option
Due diligence criteria
Monitoring and Evaluation Framework
Steps:
1) Conceptual Model
2) Literature review
3) Key hypotheses/questions
4) Design (Multiple Before After Control Impact)
5) Implementation
6) Reporting
Expected hydrological response
Expected hydrological response-
site view
Literature review
Spatial scales of monitoring
Indicators
• Likely temporal response
• Likely spatial scale of response
• Social connection
• Connection to other indicators used in water planning
Instream vegetation
macroinvertebratesWater quality
fish
Potential indicator Attribute measured Spatial scale of response*
Temporal scale of response
Physical habitat measures Wetted habitat extent on surveyed cross
sections
fine Short
Water Quality Phosphorus, Nitrogen, Nitrate, Nitrite fine-medium short
Temperature, DO fine-medium short
Salinity/Conductivity fine-medium short
Macroinvertebrates
Total Abundance (replicates required) fine-medium Short-moderate
Total Diversity fine-medium short- moderate
Functional Diversity fine-medium short- moderate
Resilient trait group proportion/abundance fine-medium short- moderate
EPT taxa abundance (replicates required) fine-medium short- moderate
EPA samples diversity measures only medium moderate
Fish Abundance and Recruitment
medium - broad moderate - long
Southern Pygmy Perch medium - broad moderate - long
River Black Fish medium - broad moderate - long
Vegetation Fish community composition
Species richness of aquatic vegetation medium long
Proportion of quadrats with aquatic
vegetation
medium
moderate - long
Indicator metrics
Short-
term
Longer-
term
Hydrological/wetted width
To what extent has the implementation of the Flows for the Future Project resulted in:
• a change in and occurrence and persistence of low flows at dam and SWMZ scale?
• reduced the number of zero flow days at the dam and SWMZ scale?
• Increased the wetted width within sites (riffles and pools)?
Key evaluation questions/ Hypotheses
Macroinvertebrates
To what extent has the implementation of the flows for the future project resulted in:
• Increased macroinvertebrate taxa and functional diversity?
• Increased abundance/diversity of macroinvertebrates with life histories characterised by resilience traits?
• Decrease in the abundance/diversity of species with life histories characterised by resistance traits?
• To what extent has the implementation of the flows for the future program resulted in the Increase in the abundance of EPT taxa?
Vegetation
1. To what extent has the implementation of the flows for the future
program increased the diversity of aquatic plants in channel?
2. To what extent has the implementation of the flows for the future
program reduced the abundance and diversity of terrestrial species
within temporary channels?
3. To what extent has the implementation of the flows for the future
program increased the frequency of aquatic plants in channel?
Fish
1. To what extent has the implementation of the flows for the future
project resulted in an increase in the recruitment success of mountain
galaxias (Galaxias oliros) populations at the catchment scale?
2. To what extent has the implementation of the flows for the future
project resulted in an increase in the recruitment success of southern
pygmy perch (Nannoperca australis) populations at the catchment
scale?
3. To what extent has the implementation of the flows for the future
project resulted in an increase in the recruitment success of river
blackfish (Gadopsis marmoratus) populations at the catchment scale?
4. To what extent has the implementation of the flows for the future
project resulted in an increase in the fish community condition score in
the EMLR?
Design• MBACI design opportunity
• 2x Catchments (Angas and Carrickalinga)
• 2x Treatment (Control vs Impact)
• Sites 20 sites
• 12 Angas
• 8 Carrickalinga
• Replicate 6 samples per site
• 2x Period (Before vs After)
• Times:
• 2-3 times before
• 2-3 times after
Control site criteria
• Independent of treatment
• Similar stream order
• Similar to treatment in physical form
• Riparian vegetation (measure)
• Soil types
• Broadly similar catchment storage and assumed use patterns
(measure/infer)
• Generally the same level of development
• Similar Agricultural use intensity
• Free from other major influences eg (large dairy).
• However, you expect some difference between sites, the design
can account for these, depending on how large the response is.
Probability of detecting a response in macroinvertebrate richness
using two catchments.
Evaluation1. Frequentist analysis of MBACI design using generalised
linear modelling to detect whether a change has occurred
in impact sites compared to control (e.g. Downes et al.
2002).
2. A Bayesian Statistical approach analysing the response to
low flow bypasses using the BACI design (e.g. Connor
2016).
3. A Bayesian Belief network approach to assessing the
response to the return of low flows.
Expected Outcomes:
• Evidence that the program is/is not meeting environmental goals,
• Better understanding of how these systems respond to changes in the
flow regime,
• Opportunities for community involvement in the health and
restoration of local waterways,
• Data to assist with review of the Water Allocation Plan, and
• Data and evaluations that will provide, in part, the requirements for
Basin Plan Schedule 12 evaluation and reporting,
• Evidence that returning low flows is possible and effective at multiple
spatial scales ranging from immediately downstream of farm dams to
entire catchments.
• Opportunities for collaboration with researchers
Thank you