Estimation of virtual water use for achieving the target of food self-sufficiency
ratio in South Korea
Department of Rural Systems EngineeringCollege of Agriculture and Life Sciences
Seoul National University
[email protected] http://rwiel.snu.ac.kr
Jin-Yong Choi, Seung-Hwan Yoo, Sang-Hyun Lee, Jeong-Bin Im
1. Virtual water & Water footprint concept
2. Introduction
3. Methods (VWC and VWU)
4. VWU for per capita net food supply
5. VWU for consumption and production in 2015 and 2020
6. Summary and Conclusions
Contents
Virtual water concept
‘Virtual water’ (Allan, 1993)
The amount of water used to produce a certain product, expressed in cubic metes (m3)
‘embedded water’
Allan suggested that the industrial and agricultural commodity trade was also a trade in the water used for production of those commodities.
(Hoekstra et al., 2011)
[Hoekstra & Chapagain, 2008](Hoekstra & Chapagain, 2004; 2008)
Water footprint concept
Water Footprint
an indicator of freshwater use that looks at both direct and indirect water use of a consumer or producer
the total volume of freshwater used to produce the goods and services consumed by the individual or community
Water volume + Additional information (where, what, when)
(Hoekstra et al., 2011)
Introduction (1)
Population growth and life-style change Affecting the demand and supply of food, and land and water use
Increase in population, rapid industrialization and urbanization during the last half century in Korea
higher foods demand & decreased arable lands
Food self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) in South Korea SSR for grain (including feed): 56% (1980) to 27% (2010) wheat, maize and beans: 0.5%, 1.0% and 9.8% in 2010
(KREI, 2011)
Introduction (2)
The food security situation in Korea faces challenges internally and externally.ex) decreased arable lands, climate change, drought
It is necessary for the Korean government to make agricultural policies more effective for stabilizing the food supply.
The MIFAFF* recognizes the necessity of enhancing its food SSR
Mid-long term targets for the grain SSR: 26.7% (2010) 30% (2015) 32% (2020) * MIFAFF: Ministry for Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
(KREI, 2011)
Introduction (3)
To achieve this goal, additional agricultural water must be secured; however, discussions on the detailed quantity and security of the water are yet to be made.
The virtual water concept, in which the amount of water is estimated using the amount of crop production, is more suitable for estimating the potential agricultural water required to meet the target food SSR.
Introduction (4)
Objectives of this study,
Estimating the potential virtual water use (VWU) using consumption and production scenarios for the target food SSRs in 2015 and 2020 in Korea.
Methods – VWC and VWU
ProductioncCWRcVWC ][][
][][][][ aVWCaVWCaVWCaVWC servdrinkfeed
][][][ aorcPaorcVWCaorcVWU
VWC = the water required for the production of one ton
CWR = the quantity of water requirement
production = the quantity harvested per year
VWCfeed[a] = virtual water content of feed
VWCdrink[a] = drinking water consumption
VWCserv[a] = service water consumption
P = the amount of consumption or production
(Chapagain and Hoekstra, 2004)
Virtual water content (VWC)Items VWC1) (m3/ton) Items VWC (m3/ton)
Cereals Meats Wheat 1071.6 Bovine meat 14,249.8
Rice 1153.8 Pig meat 5,571.6
Barley 1210.3 Poultry meat 4,015.6
Starch roots Edible viscera 10,606.4
Potato 134.8 Eggs & Milk Sweet potato 364.8 Eggs 3,805.7
Pulse Milk 1,011.4
Soy beans 3,299.3 Feed Vegetables and Fruits Bulky feed 58.5
Vegetables 143 Formular feed 1,062.2
Fruits 465.2 (Yoo et al., 2009; Chapagain and Hoekstra, 2004)
Self-sufficiency ratio in KOREA
Meats
Pulse
Formula feed
Grains
(KREI, 2011)
Consumption scenarios in 2015 and 2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
rice wheat barley pulses starch roots
Con
sum
ptio
n (1
000
ton)
2004-2009 2015 2020
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
vegetables fruits
Con
sum
ptio
n(1
000
ton)
2004-2009 2015 2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
bovine meat pig meat poultry milks eggs
Con
sum
ptio
n(1
000
ton)
2004-2009 2015 2020
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
bulky feed formula feed
Con
sum
ptio
n(1
000
ton)
2004-2009 2015 2020
Production scenarios in 2015 and 2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
rice wheat barley pulses starch roots
Prod
uctio
n (1
000
ton)
2004-2009 2015 2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
bovine meat pig meat poultry milks eggs
Prod
uctio
n(1
000
ton)
2004-2009 2015 2020
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
bulky feed formula feed
Prod
uctio
n (1
000
ton)
2004-2009 2015 2020
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
vegetables fruits
Prod
uctio
n (1
000
ton)
2004-2009 2015 2020
Changes of VWU in 2015 and 2020Food items
(Mm3)
Average in 2005-2009 2015 2020
Consum.1) Prod. 2) Consum. Prod. Diff. 3) Consum. Prod. Diff.
Rice 5,708.8 5,468.9 5,038.5 4,938.1 -530.7 4,772.0 4,676.2 -792.6
Wheat 2,261.5 10.7 2,100.3 209.0 198.2 2,025.3 304.3 293.6
Barley 395.3 199.7 357.0 111.3 -88.4 357.0 111.3 -88.4
Pulses 1,462.2 497.5 1,544.1 560.9 63.3 1,643.0 664.1 166.6
Starch roots 210.1 206.5 178.0 175.6 -30.9 178.0 175.6 -30.9
Vegetables 1,543.1 1,421.5 1,602.0 1,377.4 -44.1 1,602.0 1,330.2 -91.3
Fruits 1,253.6 1,105.6 1,686.4 1,349.2 243.5 1,799.0 1,405.0 299.3
Bovine meat 5,272.1 2,431.9 7,367.1 3,306.0 874.1 7,737.6 3,676.4 1,244.6
Pig meat 4,999.6 3,917.9 5,304.2 4,245.6 327.6 5,437.9 4,351.4 433.5
Poultry 1,696.5 1,458.1 2,549.9 2,039.9 581.9 2,814.9 2,252.8 794.7
Edible viscera 4,789.0 4,788.6 4,789.0 4,788.6 - 4,789.0 4,788.6 -
Milk 3,251.7 2,326.0 3,337.3 2,174.4 -151.6 3,370.5 2,161.6 -164.4
Eggs 2,077.9 2,068.2 2,374.8 2,351.9 283.7 2,496.5 2,469.9 401.7
Bulky feed 271.7 222.2 396.5 345.6 123.3 464.0 415.3 193.1
Formula feed 17,063.6 4,190.0 19,482.9 4,707.7 517.7 19,156.8 4,707.7 517.7
Total 52,256.7 30,313.3 58,108.0 32,681.2 2,367.6 58,643.5 33,490.4 3,177.21) Consum.: virtual water use for consumption 2) Prod.: virtual water use for production3) Diff.: difference between the average VWU for production in 2005-2009 and 2015 (or 2020)
Additional net VWU for productionin 2015 and 2020
Annual demand for agricultural water (AWD) 15,690 Mm3 in 2016 and 15,583 Mm3 in 2020 (MCT, 2006)
Additional net VWUs: 1,062 Mm3 6.8% of AWD (2015) 892 Mm3 5.7% of AWD (2020)
-388.4
199.4
610.0 641.0
-451.6
208.0
424.6
710.8
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Grains Vegetables andFruits
Animal products Feed
Add
ition
al V
WU
(Mm
3 )
2015 2020 excluding imported feed
VW import in 2015 and 2020
VW import 2005-2009 (avg.): 21,943 Mm3
2015: 25,426 Mm3 (+3,483 Mm3), 2020: 25,152 Mm3 (+3,209 Mm3)
3,655
269
5,096
12,923
3,223
562
6,815
14,826
3,044
666
6,945
14,498
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Grains Vegetables and Fruits Animal products Feed
VW
impo
rt(M
m3 )
2005-2009 2015 2020
Summary and Conclusions
In this research,
The VWUs required to secure the target food SSRs for 2015 and 2020 were calculated
additional net VWUs: 1,062 Mm3 (2015), 892 Mm3 (2020)
To serve as the basis for establishing long-term policies on the agricultural water resources.
To provide information and data which are required for the agricultural water resources management.
To use the basic data for national agricultural water footprint
Thank you
Introduction (4)
Objectives of this study,
Analyzing the trends in per capita virtual water use in accordance with the change of the food consumption pattern in the past years
Estimating the potential virtual water use (VWU) using consumption and production scenarios for the target food SSRs in 2015 and 2020 in Korea.
Self-sufficiency ratio in KOREA
Meats
Pulse
Formula feed
Grains
(KREI, 2011)
Changes of VWU in 2015 and 2020Food items
(Mm3)
Average in 2005-2009 2015 2020
Consum.1) Prod. 2) Consum. Prod. Diff. 3) Consum. Prod. Diff.
Rice 5,708.8 5,468.9 5,038.5 4,938.1 -530.7 4,772.0 4,676.2 -792.6
Wheat 2,261.5 10.7 2,100.3 209.0 198.2 2,025.3 304.3 293.6
Barley 395.3 199.7 357.0 111.3 -88.4 357.0 111.3 -88.4
Pulses 1,719.9 550.2 1,544.1 560.9 10.7 1,643.0 664.1 114.0
Starch roots 210.1 206.5 178.0 175.6 -30.9 178.0 175.6 -30.9
Vegetables 1,543.1 1,421.5 1,602.0 1,377.4 -44.1 1,602.0 1,330.2 -91.3
Fruits 1,465.8 1,249.2 1,686.4 1,349.2 100.0 1,799.0 1,405.0 155.8
Bovine meat 5,272.2 2,431.9 7,367.3 3,306.0 874.1 7,737.8 3,676.5 1,244.6
Pig meat 4,999.6 3,917.9 5,304.2 4,245.6 327.6 5,437.9 4,351.4 433.5
Poultry 1,696.5 1,458.1 2,549.9 2,039.9 581.9 2,814.9 2,252.8 794.7
Milk 3,251.7 2,326.0 3,337.3 2,174.4 -151.6 3,370.5 2,161.6 -164.4
Eggs 2,077.9 2,068.2 2,374.8 2,351.9 283.7 2,496.5 2,469.9 401.7
Bulky feed 648.0 530.0 945.4 824.0 294.1 1,106.4 990.3 460.4
Formula feed 18,923.9 4,646.7 21,606.9 5,220.9 574.2 21,245.2 5,220.9 574.2
Total 50,174.3 26,485.6 55,992.0 28,884.3 2,398.7 56,585.6 29,790.2 3,304.7
Total except feed 30,602.4 21,308.9 33,439.7 22,839.4 1,530.5 34,234.0 23,579.0 2,270.2
Ratio4) 69.6 % 68.3 % 68.9 % 1) Consum.: virtual water use for consumption 2) Prod.: virtual water use for production
3) Diff.: difference between the average VWU for production in 2005-2009 and 2015 (or 2020)
4) Ratio: VWU for production / VWU for consumption
Per capita net food supply (NFScap) in KOREA
FoodPer capita net food supply (kg/yr)
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009
Cereals 185.4 175.4 173.1 166.8 150.5 139.3
Starch roots 11.9 11.0 11.0 11.8 17.0 13.7
Pulse 10.7 10.3 11.1 10.7 11.4 9.8
Tree nuts 0.8 0.5 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.5
Oil crops 0.5 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.8
Vegetables 98.6 132.6 160.6 165.9 145.5 152.5
Fruits 26.6 29.0 39.1 40.7 44.7 47.7
Meats 16.3 23.6 32.7 37.5 36.6 43.3
Eggs 6.3 7.9 8.6 8.6 9.1 10.0
Milks 19.2 31.8 38.5 49.3 54.0 53.3
Sugars 11.7 15.3 17.8 17.9 21.2 23.8
Oil and Fats 9.2 14.3 14.2 15.9 18.7 13.3
(KREI, 2011)
VWU for NFScap
546.6 m3
861.1 m3
797.0 m3