TelcoFuturism….
… and why it matters to all service providers
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
Metaswitch Forum, May 2016
[email protected] @disruptivedean
About Disruptive Analysis
Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting
Futurism, Forecasting & anti-forecasting
Cross-silo, contrarian, independent Provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong.
Focus: Voice/video, WebRTC, 4G/5G, Telco biz models & regs Everything from videoconferencing to silicon to regulation to IoT to NFV
Not a deep technical specialist or developer
Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors
Speaker at 30+ events per year in Europe, US & Asia
Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Communications is more than just “calls” & conferences
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
The Future is getting closer, faster
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Predicted 1916
Discovered 2016
DARPA Challenge 2004
Mainstream 2017/18
Released 2009
Mainstream 2014
Invented 2012
Mainstream 2015
Image: Nicolas Halftermeyer
Released 2010
Mainstream 2014
Not just mainstream – but spinoffs & variations proliferating
CRISPR
Futurism isn’t just for the crazy guys in the labs any more
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Past: 10-20yrs Scenario Planning
Now: 3-5yrs Foresight
Soon: 1-2yrs Aware
“Sci-Fi” Lab
Concept
Business
Reality
The Future has broad drivers, beyond networks
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Chapter by Dean Bubley:
“The Future of the Phone Call”
Other Chapters cover:
AI & machine-learning
Analytics & Big Data
Contextual computing
Crowds & the Sharing Economy
Wearables & quantified-self
3D-printing
IoT, Robots & drones
Autonomous vehicles
Longevity & human enhancement
Green Tech
Financial systems & money
Political & social change
Opportunity & value arises at tech intersections
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
An
aly
tic
s &
Ma
ch
ine
le
arn
ing
We
ara
ble
s &
futu
re w
ellb
ein
g
IoT
& s
en
so
rs
Fin
Te
ch
&
Blo
ck
ch
ain
Urb
an
isa
tio
n
& s
ma
rt c
itie
s
Bio
me
dic
al te
ch
& h
um
an
en
ha
nc
em
en
t
Voice/Video Comms, Collaboration, Context & WebRTC
Future Networks: 5G, WiFi, LPWAN, SDN/NFV etc
Smartphones + Crowdsourcing + Developer Platforms
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Innovation mainly needs imagination & motivation. Not money.
Most telcos & telco execs don’t understand the future
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
… and most futurists don’t understand telecoms
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
“Telcos &
banks will all
merge”
“Everything
will be
mobile”
“Wireless
power will be
beamed from
cell towers”
Avoid strategic over-reach: platforms are expensive
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015May 2016
Source: RGBstock.com
Intersections are bi-directional
Drones using telecoms
5G connectivity for control
Streaming video
Identity / security
Industrial verticals
Entertainment & consumer
Precision-agriculture svcs
Public safety applications
Telecoms using drones
Site inspection/maintenance
Coverage testing/mapping
Delivery B2B / B2C
Temporary network capacity
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Telecoms meets AI & machine-learning
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Pricing modelsEnergy
ManagementFraud Detection
Churn Reduction
Quasi-QoS
Path Optimisation Multiple variables Capacity Planning
Analytics/Learning – Voice search & emotional analysis
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Blockchain
Mesh networks
Microbilling
IoT identity
Internal security for SDN
Alternative routing paths
Roaming agreements
Early movers:
Verizon/Filament
Orange Chainforce
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Sources of value in communications
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Before a call
/ session
Signal / check
availability
Signal
purpose
Timing
Setup &
configuration
Rendezvous
Device
Identity
During a call
/ session
Quality &
acoustics
Handoff
Translation
Realtime
analysis
Relevant data
Multi-party
UI / control
Interop
After a call /
session
Record & tag
Next actions
Ratings
Post-call
analytics
Ephemerality
OUTCOMES
Reason for a
call / session
Triggers
Scheduling
Forms
Choice /
negotiation of
channel
Context
Social
Workflow
Ongoing: Conversations, narratives, reputation, identity
…. this is just a starting point
Enterprise voice & UC trends evolving fast
Context
Conversations
Convenience: Today’s UC
Calls: Historic & Functional
• App-embedded comms
• Purpose-driven comms
• Analytics & IoT integration
• Multi-channel
• Workstream/ social
• Persistent collaboration
• Cloud & hybrid delivery
• UCaaS
• Mobile, BYOD
• Basic telephony & IM
• Simple conferencing
• Desktop video
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Engaging with the future….
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Cross-Organisation
InvolvementPartners & Vendors
Competitions, Incubators &
Hackathons
www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
Skype:disruptiveanalysis
appear.in/disruptiveanalysis
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016