Economic outlook and trade perspectives in Latin America and the Caribbean. 2012
Viña del Mar, Chile. 26 de noviembre de 2012
Ricardo J. Sánchez Senior Economic Affairs OfficerChief, Infrastructure Services UnitNatural Resources and Infrastructure Division
Regional macroeconomic context
International context
Economic perspectives: macroeconomy and trade
Index
Regional performance in 2012: Inflation, employment and wages External sector Policies: Fiscal and Monetary
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GDP GROWTH RATE, 2012 (In percentages)
Economic activity continues to expand (3.2%), but at a lower rate than 2011
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures.
-2.01.61.6
2.02.0
2.83.03.23.23.2
3.53.5
4.04.44.54.54.5
5.05.05.05.05.0
5.96.0
9.5
-4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
ParaguayThe Caribbean
BrazilArgentina
El SalvadorSouth America (10 countries)
CubaHonduras
Latin America & the CaribbeanLatin America
GuatemalaUruguay
MexicoCentral America (9 countries)
ColombiaEquador
Dominican RepublicBolivia (Plur. St. of)
ChileCosta RicaNicaragua
Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of)PeruHaiti
Panama
LATIN AMERICA: CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL GDP GROWTH BY COUNTRY
Qué explica en menor ritmo de crecimiento?
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures.
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Brazil
Argentina
The Caribbean
Mexico
Central America
Rest of South America
Latin America & the Caribbean
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Public Consumption Private Consumption Investment Net Exports GDP
Consumption continues to be the main driver of GDP growth
LATIN AMERICA: RATE OF GDP VARIATION AND THE CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH OF THE COMPONENTS OF AGGREGATE DEMAND
(2005 constant dollars, in percentages, weighted averages)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures.
A wide array of policies and measures (with differences between countries) has been applied
between 2003/2008 and 2012
1. Fiscal policy2. Monetary policy3. Social and labour policies4. Sectoral and trade policies
27
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, FOOD PRICE INDEX AND CORE INFLATION, 2009-2012
(12-month change, simple average)
Inflation maintained its downward trend of the first quarter of the year
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%Ja
nuar
yFe
brua
ryM
arch
Apr
ilM
ayJu
ne July
Aug
ust
Sept
embe
rO
ctob
erN
ovem
ber
Dec
embe
rJa
nuar
yFe
brua
ryM
arch
Apr
ilM
ayJu
ne July
Aug
ust
Sept
embe
rO
ctob
erN
ovem
ber
Dec
embe
rJa
nuar
yFe
brua
ryM
arch
Apr
ilM
ayJu
ne July
Aug
ust
Sept
embe
rO
ctob
erN
ovem
ber
Dec
embe
rJa
nuar
yFe
brua
ryM
arch
Apr
ilM
ayJu
ne July
2009 2010 2011 2012
CPI Core Food
12
Current account
LATIN AMERICA (19 COUNTRIES): STRUCTURE OF THE CURRENT ACCOUNT, 2006-2012 a
(As a percentage of GDP)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Figures for 2012 correspond to projections.
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Goods balance Services balance Income balance Current transfers balance Current account balance
19
Until mid-2012, at the regional level, there was a continuous increase of employment which positively
affected consumptionLATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (10 COUNTRIES): EMPLOYMENT RATE AND URBAN
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, FOUR QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE, 2009 TO SECOND QUARTER 2012 (In percentages)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.
53.50
54.00
54.50
55.00
55.50
56.00
56.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
9.00
Employment rate (left scale) Unemployment rate (right scale)
13
Financial access
INTERNATIONAL BOND ISSUESa
(In millions of dollars, basis points)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of data from Latin Finance, Bonds Database, JP Morgan and Merrill Lynch. a Emerging Markets Bonds Index
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Jan-
07
Apr-
07
Jul-0
7
Oct
-07
Jan-
08
Apr-
08
Jul-0
8
Oct
-08
Jan-
09
Apr-
09
Jul-0
9
Oct
-09
Jan-
10
Apr-
10
Jul-1
0
Oct
-10
Jan-
11
Apr-
11
Jul-1
1
Oct
-11
Jan-
12
Apr-
12
Jul-1
2
Private-sector Banks Sovereign Quasi-sovereign EMBI+ Latin America (right scale)
20
Latin America: Varying fiscal spaces, but greater than those of OECD countries
LATIN AMERICA AND OECD: OVERALL FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT, 2011(As a percentage of GDP)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
DOM
HTILatin America
VEN
URY
PER
PRY
PAN
NIC
MEX
HND
GTMSLV
ECU
CRI
COL
CHL
BRA
BOL
ARG
Gross public debt 2011
Ove
rall
fisca
l ba
lan
ce 2
01
1
0 20 40 60 80 100-8.0
-4.0
0.0
OECD
LA
22
International reserves
LATIN AMERICA: INTERNATIONAL RESERVES
(Index numbers, averages before the crisis = 100)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures* The values represent international reserves in millions of USD for August 2012
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
45,152
13,064
377,221
38,421
35,276
4,898 4,219
6,766
165,393
4,832
59,836
12,546
25,932
Post Crisis Average (Q1 2010-Q2 2012) Aug-12
25
The variability of nominal exchange rates has increased
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: RATE OF CHANGE OF THE NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE, DECEMBER 2011 TO AUGUST 2012
APPRECIATION
DEPRECIATION
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures
Brazil
Uruguay
Argentina
Haiti
Jamaica
Nicaragua
Dominican Rep.
Honduras
Guatemala
Dominica
Equador
El Salvador
Panama
Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of)
Trinidad & Tobago
Paraguay
Bolivia (Plur. St. of)
Costa Rica
Peru
Mexico
Chile
Colombia
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
10.2%
7.0%
6.6%
4.2%
3.1%
2.9%
1.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.7%
-2.5%
-2.6%
-4.4%
-7.2%
-7.5%
26
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GDP GROWTH RATE, 2013(In percentages)
EXPECTATIONS: Moderate recovery in some countries and a slight deceleration in others in 2013
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)
2.02.2
3.03.03.0
3.53.5
4.04.04.04.04.0
4.54.54.54.5
4.85.05.0
5.57.0
7.5
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
El SalvadorThe Caribbean
CubaHonduras
Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of)Argentina
GuatemalaBrazil
Costa RicaMexico
UruguayLatin America & the Caribbean
Bolivia (Plur. St. of)ColombiaEquador
Dominican RepublicChile
NicaraguaParaguay
PeruPanama
Haiti
9
EXPECTATIONS: for 2013 a moderate recovery of growth, mainly due to an upturn in Brazil
LATIN AMERICA: CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL GDP GROWTH BY COUNTRY
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures.
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Brasil Argentina El Caribe México Centroamérica Resto de América del Sur América Latina y el Caribe
7
Conclusions
• A slight deceleration in 2012 and a modest
recovery in 2013
• The (varied) country outlook will depend on the
external situation and on the capacity to
respond28
Regional macroeconomic context
International context
Economic perspectives: macroeconomy and trade
Index
Global production and trade began to slow down starting in the second half of 2011
A. Industrial output by volume(Annual growth in percentage)
B. Exports by volume(Annual growth in percentage)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of CPB Netherlands Bueau of Policy Analysis.
WORLD AND MAIN REGIONS: PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS, 2010-2012
32
The euro zone (except Germany) is in recession, partly as a result of deep fiscal adjustments
A. Germany and euro zone excluding Germany:quarterly growth
(Percentages of GDP)
B. Euro zone excluding Germany:public debt and fiscal deficit
(Percentages of GDP)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of Eurostat and IMF.
34
Performance in the euro zone has been uneven among the countries
SELECTED EURO ZONE COUNTRIES: CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP RISK PREMIUMS(basic points)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of Bloomberg.
35
Recovery in the United States
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of World Bank, World Development Indicators.
UNITED STATES: CUMULATIVE GROWTH IN THE FOUR YEARS AFTER THE CRISIS(Index: crisis year=1)
37
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis and estimates by the Congressional Budget Office (2012).
UNITED STATES: QUARTERLY CHANGE IN GDP, 1990-2013(Quarterly rates of variation in percentages)
2. Spending cuts and tax hikes postponed- Deficit narrows to 6.5% of GDP.- Unemployment around 8%. - Economy grows 1.7% in 2013.
The complex fiscal situation in the United States is constraining growth
40
UNITED STATES: STRUCTURE OF EXPORTS BY DESTINATION, 2001 AND 2011(Percentages of the total)
The crisis has shifted the US’ export patterns: Asia and Latin America have become the main destination markets
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of the United States Department of Commerce.
41
The main challenge for China is to shift its source of growth from investment to consumption
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of World Bank, World Development Indicators.
A. Gross fixed capital formation as a percentage of GDP
(Percentages)
B. Private consumption as a percentage of GDP (Percentages)
43
Compared with previous recoveries, patterns are markedly different in the North and the South
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of Eurostat and International Monetary Fund.
RECOVERIES AFTER THE CRISIS OF 2009 COMPARED WITH 1982 AND 1991
(a) Advanced economies (b) Developing economies
B. Goods and services export volumes(Index: crisis year=100)
A. Constant GDP in 2005 dollars and purchasing power parity(Index: crisis year=100)
42
Regional macroeconomic context
International context
Economic perspectives: macroeconomy and trade
Index
In the next 5 years, Asia will provide almost half of global growth; LAC will contribute more than Western Europe
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2012.
CONTRIBUTION TO GLOBAL GROWTH BY REGION, 2012-2017(Percentages)
44
Global export growth begins to slow. Global exports are going to grow more slowly in the post-crisis (?) period than they did pre-crisis
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of World Trade Organization.a The figure for 2013 corresponds to estimates by IMF, World Economic Outlook, June 2012 update.
WORLD TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES(Annual rates of variation and average pre- and post-crisis)
33
For 2012, ECLAC projects export volumes growth of 5.1% and import growth of 3.7%
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information for January-July 2012 for Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico, and January-June 2012 for the other countries in the region.
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN AND SUBREGIONS: PROJECTED VARIATION IN GOODS TRADE VALUE BY PRICE AND VOLUME, 2012
(Percentages)
For 2013: 6.2% export volumes growth of 5% imports
In conclusion
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ThankYou!
Ricardo J. Sánchez
ChiefInfrastructure Services Unit
Natural Resources and Infrastructure Division United Nations ECLAC
+56 2 210-2131
[email protected]://www.eclac.org/transporte