Economics of Climate Change Adaptation: Regional Consultation on Capacity Building Needs in Asia
24-26 Four Seasons Hotel, Bangkok Thailand
ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION – A CASE OF KHULNA CITY WATER SECTOR PROJECTS
Professor A.K. Enamul Haque PhDDepartment of EconomicsUnited International UniversityDhaka, Bangladesh
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Climate Change Impact Pathways
Sequences of change - GHGs emission Global warming Changes in the climateClimate Events
rapid onset events or climate extremes Cyclone, major flood, flash flood, GLOF
Slow onset events Salinity, SLR, flood, storm surges, seasonal
change, seasonal temperature fluctuations, etc.
How climate change affect us?
Climate Events Causes
Mortality and Morbidity impacts DAMAGE to assets and properties LOSS of ecological services
Provisional services Regulating services Cultural services Supporting services
These events eventually affect people.
How to understand the loss and damage?
Events loss and damage because of Exposure of people and their asset to the event Intensity of the event Vulnerability due to socio-economic status
As such climate evens trigger additional risks Development Projects should be planned to
be robust enough to withstand these risks Need adaptation
How to study economics of adaptation?
Understand the impacts of climate events (arising due to climate change) on people Define the specific climate events in question. Find the extent (probable) of loss and damage the
event might cause if it occursDesign adaptation strategies
Adaptation means building resilience to withstand climate events
Both soft and hard strategies needs to be understood Find the costs
This means that the cost of adaptation is now defined.
Climate Change and Public Expenditure
Khulna City is a case study on understanding climate change impact on the city people and design appropriate adaptation strategies
Issues at hand Define the climate events related to water
infrastructure of the city due to climate change Design adaptation strategies to reduce or remove
impacts Separate cost of adaptation from other project costs? Objective is to claim the ‘additional costs’ from climate
funds/climate resilient fund/climate adaptation funds/climate trust fund?
Khulna City Water Sector
Khulna is a south-western metropolitan city with a population of about a million
It is a major city of the countrySalinity in water is risingWater-logging is increasingCity is planning to upgrade its water
infrastructure – Water supply and Drainage system
This study is designed to understand the CC impact on this plan.
Khulna City
31 Wards1,000,000 Population (approx.)
RiversEast – Rupsha and BhairabWest – Mayur
Drainage through Mayur
Land elevation 2.5m from the mean sea level
Climate Induced Threats-Water logging-Salinity Intrusion-Cyclone/Storms
Socio-economic team
Study Method
Climate Scenarios
Data Collection
Optimistic, Pessimistic and Realistic Scenarios
How to assess ‘future’ damage and loss?
We needed appropriate counterfactual scenarios for future situations1.Look at super cyclones or major flooding occurred in recent past2.Look at highly saline regions3.Look at past coping and adaptive behavior of people of Khulna
Climate model results
Sea level rise in Bangladesh
Integrate local environment from GCM resluts
Now results are used in Regional Hydraulic Model and in Urban Drainage Model.
Calibration and modeling
Local conditions Rivers Canals Wetlands Drainage system Sea water level
rise Rainfall Socio-economic
variations Future city
expansion plan
Changes in land use-2030 and 2050
2050 water-logging by Ward
Measuring climate change impacts
Economy in 2030 and 2050?
Changes in socio-economic variables
Adaptation options
Issues at hand for CBA
Damage estimates due to climate events per episode (average of 10 years value)
Damage function
Estimation of avoided damages (benefits)
2050 water logging
Impact of Adaptation
Damage estimates …
Elements of BCA
Benefit cost ratio
Benefit cost ratio
Learning
CC adaptation study Requires multi-disciplinary team Needs to understand climate events, climate risks Use future climate scenarios Needs to develop socio-economic scenarios for the
future Identify additional costs in project Justify which adaptation measures make sense. Access international finance mechanism to pay for
climate related adaptation costs.