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By:Dr.AndreasH.HermelinkandAstridMller
Date:1December2010
Projectnumber:PDEMDE101646
ThisreportwascommissionedbyEurima-EuropeanInsulationManufacturersAssociation
AllviewsexpressedinthisreportarethoseoftheauthorsandnotnecessarilythoseofEurima.
WewouldliketothankDENA(GermanEnergyAgency)fortheirsupport.
EcofysGermanyGmbH,StralauerPlatz34,10243Berlin,Germany
www.ecofys.de,Email:[email protected],Tel:+49(0)30297735790
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Table of contents
1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. 12 Background ............................................................................................................................... 33 Methodology ............................................................................................................................. 43.1 CalculationofCostperSavedkWhFinalEnergy................................................................4
3.2 IllustrativeTransferofResultstootherEuropeanCountries...............................................7
4 Selected Buildings from the Low Energy Building Stock Initiative ......................................... 105 Results .................................................................................................................................... 136 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................ 177 Annex Selected excerpts from the EPBD recast....................................................................198 References ............................................................................................................................. 21
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1 Executive SummaryInthecurrentcontextofclimatechange,energyinsecurityandrisingenergyprices,theEUisatthe
crossroadsforitsfutureenergypolicy.Itiswidelyacceptedthatboldactioninenergyefficiencyis
keyinordertorespondtothemultiplechallenges.
Buildingsare clearly perceivedas the low hanging fruitwith greater potential forcost-efficient
action in the energy efficiency field. In this context, the necessity ofawide campaignof deep
renovationoftheexistingEUbuildingstockisoftenmentioned,butsofarnoEU-wideanalysisofits
economicimplicationshasbeenundertaken.
ThisstudybyEcofysintendstoprovideanotionoftheeconomicfeasibilityofdeeprenovationsforsingleandmulti-familyhomesacrosstheEU,takingacase-studyanalysisasbasis.
Mainfindingsofthisstudy:
The time for deep renovation across Europe is now: The study concludes that deeprenovationhasthepotentialtobethepreferredsolutionfromecologicandeconomicpoint
ofview,evenwithoutsubsidies,forthenecessaryimmediateactionontheEUbuilding
stock;
Shallow renovations significantly increase the risk to miss the climate targets:Thestudypointsoutthat,ifsuperficialrenovationsofbuildingsareundertakenonleastperforming
buildings, hugeabsolutesavings remainuntapped.Theachievementof theEUslong-
termenergysavingsandclimategoalswillbeimpossible ifthecurrent trendof cream
skimmingrenovationsiskept;
Spending on deep renovations is worth from the first day:ForallstudiedEUcountries,energyrelatedcostspersavedkWhfordeeprenovationturnedouttobeequalorlower
thanactualenergycosts.WealreadyhavefavourablemarketconditionsacrossEurope
to make deep renovation a financially more attractive option than inaction (continue
paying higher energy consumption); the only exception is UK, where in the past gaspriceshavebeen relatively low compared to continental Europe. This low-priceperiod
mightend soonas theUK importsmore andmore gas athighercontinentalEuropes
pricelevel.ThusevenintheUKdeeprenovationistherightchoicetobeonthesafeside.
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Methodology:
Results were taken from case studies under the very ambitious Low energybuilding
stock(NiedrigenergiehausimBestand)deeprenovationprogramme,managedbythe
GermanEnergyAgency(DENA).theseresultswereextrapolatedtootherEUcountries
using EUROSTAT data on price level indices,mortgage rates, inflation rates, energy
pricesandheatingdegreedays;
This study has been made under conservative assumptions regarding future energy
prices,andexcludinganypossiblesubsidy thatwouldmakethe investmentevenmore
advantageous.
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2 BackgroundBuildingsplaythemajorroleinachievingEuropesveryambitiousclimatetargets.On19May2010amilestoneinEuropeanclimatepolicycameintoeffect:therecastoftheDirectiveontheEnergy
PerformanceofBuildings(EPBD).
Fornewbuildingsthe recastexplicitlyrequiresnearlyzeroenergy being the standardby2019
(publicbuildings)or2021respectively(allotherbuildings).
AstothebuildingstocktherecastrequiresMemberStatestoensurethatwhenbuildingsundergo
majorrenovation,theenergyperformanceofthebuildingortherenovatedpartthereofisupgraded
in order tomeet minimum energy performance requirements in so far as this is technically,
functionallyandeconomicallyfeasible[EP2010].Thougheventhetermnearlyzeroenergyusedfor new buildings still needs further definitions on European and National level, obviously the
wordingformajorrenovationsofexistingbuildingsleavesmoreuncertaintyabouttheactuallevelof
energyperformancethatisspokenof.Thisuncertaintycanbereducedbyevidencefromrealized,
ambitiousmajorrenovations.Amajorrenovationisaccomplishedwhentotalcostofrenovation
relating to the building envelope or the technical building systems is higher than 25% of the
buildingsvalueorifmorethan25%ofthesurfaceofthebuildingenvelopeundergoesrenovation.
Thetermeconomicallyfeasiblecitedabovereferstoanothernoveltyintherecast.Theeconomic
feasibility is to be calculated within the context of a comparative methodology framework for
calculating cost-optimal levels ofminimum energy performance requirements. Such frameworkdoesnotyetexistbutistobelaiddownbytheCommissionuntil30June2011.Furtherdetailson
theEPBDrecastsrelevantparagraphsareprovidedintheAnnexofthispaper.
Since2004awelldocumentedseriesofprogressivemajorrenovationsforresidentialbuildingshas
aimedatachievingatleastnewbuildingsenergyperformanceundertheumbrellaoftheambitious
initiativeLowEnergyBuildingStock,managedbytheGermanEnergyAgency(DENA).Dueto
their high ambition these renovations belong to the category of deep (major) renovations in
contrasttoshallowrenovationsonlyaimingatminorsavings.
ThispaperdiscussestheeconomicfeasibilityofdeeprenovationsforsingleandmultifamilyhomesusingtheGermanLowEnergyBuildingStockprogrammeasacasestudy.Inordertoputthe
resultsintoaEuropeanperspective,anestimationoftheeconomicsofsuchprojectsincl.ahintto
jobcreationpotentialforsomeselectedEuropeancountriesisincluded.
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3 Methodology3.1 Calculation of Cost per Saved kWh Final EnergyA comparative methodology framework for calculating cost-optimal levels of minimum energy
performance requirements is not yet available. Instead the economic calculations follow the
methodology being described by [Ecofys 2009]. The ultimate aim of that methodology is to
transforminvestmentsinbeyondthebusinessasusualenergyefficiencyintoEuro-ctpersaved
kWh.Thisenablesadirectcomparisonbetween:
Whatdoesitcosttosaveoneunitofenergy?and
Whatdoesitcosttobuyoneunitofenergy?
[Ecofys2009]concludethatcurrentcalculationsforcost-optimallevelsofrenovationoftensuffer
fromseveralmajordistortions.Distortionscanhappeninbothdirections:eithermakingtheenergy
efficiencyinvestmentlookbetterorworse,cf.Figure1.Asfaraspossiblethesedistortionshave
beeneliminatedinthispaper.
better worse
static calculations application of payback method
exponential energy price increase high interest rates
zero residual values
too short life-times
questionable alternatives
Distortions that often make investments look
Figure1 Distortions
Staticcalculationsdonottakeintoaccountinterestrates.Thereforeaninterestrate>0%
hastobeaccountedfor.
Inferring from historic energy price developments to future price assumptions is often
done by applying inconspicuously small annual price increases. Still the result is an
exponentialenergypriceincrease.Especiallywhenappliedincalculationsforlong-term
investmentslikebetterenergyperformanceofbuildingsthisleadstounrealisticallyhigh
futureenergy price levels. It ismore serious toassumean average price level for theperiodunderconsideration.Figure2showstheaverage2007-2009consumerrealprice
for natural gas/heating oil, differed by single-family (SF) or multi-family (MF) homes
respectively,basedon[Eurostat2010a].ThesectperkWhgascanbecomparedwith
thecostpersavedkWhoftheenergyefficiencyinvestmentinacountry.
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Figure2 GaspricesforsinglefamilyandmultifamilyhomesinselectedEuropeancountries
Payback calculations tend to prefer cheaper investments that usually not only have
smaller savings but also shorter lifetimes. Especially in the context of buildings with
lifetimesofseveraldecades,thepaybackcalculationisaninappropriatetooltopreparedecisions.Insteadacalculationmethodisneededthatgivesanindicationaboutthenet
benefitofalong-terminvestment-thecalculationofnetpresentvalues.
Investmentsinbetterenergyperformanceofbuildingsareusuallyfinancedbymortgage
loans. Nevertheless often much higher interest rates are assumed which lead to an
underestimationofbenefitsfromenergyefficiency.Forthepurposeofthisstudywetake
long-terminterestratesofhousingloanstohouseholds(>10a)[Eurostat2010b].Tolevel
outfluctuations,the2005-2009averageistaken.20yearsaretakenascalculationperiod
fortheannuityof the investment.Allcalculationsinthispaperarebasedonrealprices
(e.g.energyprices,mortgageinterestrates)incontrasttonominalpriceswhichincludeinflation - meaning that inflation has to be eliminated. Long-term inflation for different
EuropeancountrieswasderivedfromEurostatHICP Index [Eurostat2010c]. Figure3
illustratesnominalandestimatedrealmortgageratesforseveralEuropeancountries.
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
AT BE BG CZ DK DE HU NL RO SK SI UK
ct/kWh(incl.taxes)
Gas SF
Gas MF
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Figure3 NominalandRealMortgageRatesinSelectedEuropeanCountries
Usuallythelifetimeoftheinvestmentexceedsthecalculationperiod.Thereforeonlythe
valueoftheinvestmentthatisusedupduringthecalculationperiodmustbetakeninto
account. Consequently the residual is not taken into account. Assuminga calculationperiod of 20 years Table 1 gives some examples for the residual for different
combinationsofrealinterestrateandlifetime.
Table 1 Relativeshareofresidualvaluesintotalinvestments,calculationperiod20years
The best time for a major renovation or for improvements of components is when a
renovationhas tobedoneanyway.Thecost for theseanywayinvestmentshas tobe
subtracted from the total investment inenergy efficiencyasotherwise thequestionable
alternativedonothingwouldbethebaselineforacomparison.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
AT BE BG CZ DK DE HU NL RO SK SI UK
ct/kWh(incl.taxes)
Nominal Mortgage Rate
Real Mortgage Rate
20 30 40 50 80
3.00% 0% 24% 36% 42% 51%
3.50% 0% 23% 33% 39% 47%
4.00% 0% 21% 31% 37% 43%4.50% 0% 20% 29% 34% 40%
Residual values
Lifetime (years)
real
interst
rate
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Itisnoteworthythatalthoughcertainlyhavingapositivemonetaryvalue,thefollowingco-benefitsof
correctlyimplementedenergyefficiencymeasuresarenotconsideredinthispaper,whichequals
theusualpractice(cf.[PHI2008]):
Higherindependencyfromenergyimports
Mitigationofexternalitieslikeglobalwarming(externalcosts)
Higherqualityenergyservicesresultinginbetterhealthlike,
o Betterthermalcomfort
o Betterindoorairquality.
Riskreduction
o Lessriskofdamagingthebuildingconstruction
o Lesspovertyriskincaseofsteeplyincreasingenergyprices.
Wealsodonotdiscusstheinvestor-user-dilemmaasthisisnotabouttheefficiencyofanenergy
savinginvestmentbutmainlyonhowtofairlydistributeitsbenefits.
3.2 Illustrative Transfer of Results to other European CountriesEmpiricalevidencefordeeprenovationsinthisstudywastakenfromDENAsLowEnergyBuilding
Stockseries. Asnocomparable data forotherEuropeancountrieswas readily available these
results have been transferred to some other countries context. The selection of countries
dependedontheavailabilityofallnecessaryinputdatawithintheEurostatstatistics.Theremaining
countries underwent another selection by climatic conditions, i.e. countries with heating degree
days similar toGermany andnegligible cooling demand in residential buildings were selected.Finallysomehighinflationcountrieswereeliminatedtoavoidquestionableresults.
Asan inputfor thecalculationofthe costpersavedkWhand theirinterpretation,thefollowing
dataisneeded:
1 Measures lifetime
2 Calculation period
3 Real energy price
4 Real long-term mortgage rate
5 Heating degree days for recalculation of energy savings
6 Additional cost caused by deep energetic renovation
Havingresultsforonecountry(Germany),especially3to6needtobeaddressed.Items1and2
wereassumedtobethesameinallselectedcountries.
Figure3alreadypresentedanoverviewofreallongtermmortgagerates.Figure4showsthe30
yearsaverage(1980-2009)forheatingdegreedays.Thehigherthevalue,thelongerand/orcolder
theheatingseason.Thevaluesshowcountryaveragessotherewillbealsocolderregionsin
everycountrywithmoreattractiveeconomicsfordeeprenovations.
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
AT BE BG CZ DK DE HU NL RO SK SI UK
Kd(Kelvindays)
Heating Degree Days
Figure4 HeatingdegreedaysinselectedEuropeancountries(30-yearaverage)
Themostcriticaltransformationrelatestoitem6theadditionalcostcausedbydeeprenovations
thatweknowfromGermanytoanothercountry.PriceLevelIndices(PLI),whichareavailablefrom
EurostatsPurchasingPowerParitiesdatafordifferentsectors[Eurostat2008]wereappliedforthis
transformation.AsEurostatdoesnotprovideaspecificindexfor(deep)renovationofbuildings,thePLIfornewresidentialbuildingsweretakenasaproxy,seeFigure5.Forafirstindicationonthe
economicsofdeeprenovationinEurope,thisapproachpromisessufficientreliability.TheEU27
averagehasaPLIof100.Lowervaluessignallowerpricelevelandviceversa.
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
AT BE BG CZ DK DE HU NL RO SK SI UK
PLI - Price Level Index
Figure5 PriceLevelIndicesfornewresidentialbuildings2007
Anestimationonjobeffectscanbemadebyusingasimplifiedmethodthatneglectssmallereffects
but still offers a good indication of possible employment related impacts of energy efficiency
measures: the assumed additional turnover from energy efficiency projects is divided by the
averageturnoverperemployeeintheconstructionsector(availablefromEurostat)andmultipliedbyaspecificfactor,amethodologythatwealreadyusedintheimpactassessmentfortheEPBD
recast.
Job_creation=(additional_turnover/turnover_per_employee)*factor
This factordependson thespecific labour intensityof themeasures carried out. Dependingon
exact kind of activities, this factor may vary between 0.5 (share of material costs of energy
efficiency measures twice as high as the usual mix ofmaterial and labour costs as presently
observedinthebuildingindustryoftheEU27)and1.0(shareofmaterialcostsaccordingtousual
mix).Inthepresentstudythefactorwasassumedtobe0.7.
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4 Selected Buildings from the Low Energy Building Stock InitiativeThe pilot initiative Low Energy Building Stock of the German Energy Agency is designed toproducebestpracticeexamplesfordeeprenovations,e.g.byusingcomponentsusuallyappliedin
new very-low-energy buildings or Passive Houses in renovation. In fact the series anticipates
subsequent levels for funding by the federal German KfW bank. Up till know there have been
severalprojectphases,ofwhichthefirstthreefeaturedresidentialbuildings,therenovationstarting
between2004and2007.Typicalmeasurescomprise:
Thermoskin,insulationthicknessbetween10-24cm
Insulationofcellarceiling,5-20cm
Newwindows,U-values0.8-1.4W/mK
Roofinsulation SolarthermalcollectorsforDomesticHotWater
Ventilationsystemwithheatrecoveryorexhaustaironly
Reductionofheatbridges.
ThequalityofthebuildingenvelopecanbeshownasaverageU-value,Ht.Figure6showsthe
extraordinarily high standard of the building insulation after renovation. Note that EnEV 2007
indicatestherequirementsfor newbuildingsaccordingtotheGermanEnergySavingOrdinance
from2007.Obviouslyallrenovatedbuildingsaremuchbetter,mostofthemareevenbetterthan
todaysnewbuildlevel(EnEV2009=EnEV2007minus30%)andsomealmostreachPassive
Houselevel.
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20
A/V - ratio surface area / building volume
W/(m2K)-AverageU-valueofBuildingShell
Ht' EnEV 2007 Ht' post renovation Ht' Limit new -30% Ht' Limit new -50% Passive House
Figure6 Specifictransmissionlossesofdemobuildings(dots)vs.severalbuildingstandards
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Forourstudywepickedseveral
Singlefamilyhomes,vintage1958-1978
Multi-familyhomes,vintage1958-1969.
Theyrepresentthewidest-spreadresidentialbuildingsinGermany.Astheyarenottheworstfrom
energeticpointofview,evenhighersavingsmaybeachievedinoldervintages.
Mergedtoareferencesinglefamilyhomeandareferencemultifamilyhomethebuildingscanbe
characterizedasfollowsbeforeandafterrenovation:
Figure7 Referencesinglefamilyhome,beforeandafterdeeprenovation
Singlefamilyhomesshowhugesavingsofappr.85%(morethan250kWh/m 2a)intermsoffinal
energyafterrenovation.Themajorityofbuildingswasdescribedashavingaheatedcellar,thisis
whytheinsulationlayerinthereferencehomeisinterruptedatthebottom.
gas /oil boiler Heat pump / biomass
Before
average U-value:1.34 W/m k
1958 68 or
1969 78 after
average U-value:0.28 W/m k
Reference single-family-house
living space = 213 m living space = 213 m
final energy: 44 kWh/m14.5 %
Natural ventilation
Solar thermal
Insulation of thebuilding envelop
Efficient windows/doors
Mech. ventilation with heat
recovery 80%
final energy: 302 kWh/m100 %
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Figure8 Referencemulti-familyhome,beforeandafterrenovation
Multifamilyhomesshowhugesavingsofappr.80%(morethan150kWh/m2a)intermsoffinal
energyafterrenovation.Themajorityofbuildingswasdescribedashavingaheatedcellar,thisis
whytheinsulationlayerinthereferencehomeisinterruptedatthebottom.
Pricesforadditionaldeeprenovationexpenditureswereeitherderivedfromarchitectsinformation
orfromre-calculatingthefindingsof[IWU2010].
gas /oil boiler Biomass / CHP
before
average U-value:1.31 W/m k
1969 78
after
average U-value:0.35 W/m k
Reference multi-family-house
living space = 2400 m living space = 2400 m
final energy: 195 kWh/m100 %
Efficient windows/doors
Natural ventilation Mech. ventilation
Insulation of thebuilding envelop
final energy: 41 kWh/m21 %
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5 ResultsTheGermanprojectsshowthefollowingspecificcostsforsingle/multi-familyhomes:
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Living area
Energy
relatedcost/mlivingarea
Figure9 Energyrelatedcostsfordeeprenovationofsinglefamilyhomes(/m)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
Living area
Energyrelatedcost/mlivingarea
Figure10 Energyrelatedcostsfordeeprenovationofmultifamilyhomes(/m)
Figure10andFigure11showacostdegressionwithincreasinglivingareaandlowerspecificcostinmultifamilyhomescomparedtosinglefamilyhomes.
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0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
AT BE BG CZ DK DE HU NL RO SK SI UK
ct/kWh
SF, cost per saved kWhadjusted
MF, cost per saved kWh
adjusted
Figure11 Estimated,adjustednationalcostpersavedkWhforsingle-andmulti-familyhomes
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
AT BE BG CZ DK DE HU NL RO SK SI UK
SF, relation cost persaved kWh/Gas EF
MF relation cost persaved kWh/Gas
Figure12 Estimated, adjusted relation between national cost per saved kWh for single- and multi-family
homesandthelocalenergyprice
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ThesespecificcostsaretransferredtoaveragecostpersavedkWhforthewholeDENAsample,
separatelyforsingle-andmulti-familyhomes.InFigure11thesearethevaluesofGermany(DE).
ApplyingthetransformationstepsexplainedbeforetheGermancostpersavedkWharetransferred
toseveralselectedEuropeancountries,seeFigure11.Thereisquiteabigvarietyincostsper
saved kWh that can be expected for deep renovations which are comparable to the German
exampleinotherEuropeancountries.
AsexplainedbeforedeeprenovationsareveryattractivewhenthepossiblecostpersavedkWhis
lowerthantheactualrealenergypriceinacountry.Therelationbetweenthosecanbeshownby
dividingthenationalcostpersavedkWhbythenationalenergyprice,seeFigure12.
Figure12needssomeadditionalexplanationtoensureproperinterpretation:
Note,thatallvaluesarebasedonaGermansampleofdeeprenovations.TheGerman
samplehas been hypothetically transferred to a few European countries bymeans of
EUROSTAT data on price levels for energy and construction and climate. Therefore
Figure11andFigure12giveanindicationonwhatmaybeexpectedwhentheGerman
deeprenovationexampleswouldbeimplementedinthesecountries.Obviouslyevidence
fromprojectsinthesecountrieswithcomparableambitionwouldbewelcometogetreal
results.
Thegraphisbasedonaconservativeassumptiononfutureenergyprices.Theaverage
nationalhouseholdgaspricefor2007-2009hasbeentakenwithoutassumingfurtherreal
gaspriceincreasesoverthecalculationperiodof20years.Moreovernosubsidiesetc.
areincluded,whichwouldlowerthepricepersavedkWh.
ThegraphisbasedonenergyrelatedcostspersavedkWh(Figure11)forasampleof
veryambitiousdeeprenovations,meaningthatfinalenergyconsumptionwascutbymore
than 80% being in line with long-term climate targets. The energetic quality of the
renovatedbuildings in the Germansample is appr. 50% better than what is currently
requiredfornewbuildings.
Avalueof100%indicatesthatalreadyatthementionedconservativeassumptionsdeep
renovation is financially equivalent tonot investing inenergyefficiency and paying for
highenergyconsumption.Inotherwords:theenergysavingsalonepayfortheadditional
investment.Notethatpositivesideeffectsofdeeprenovationlikeincreasedrealestate
value,morecomfort,lowervulnerabilitytoenergypriceincreasesetc.areforfree.Avaluelower than 100% indicates that the energy savings over-compensate the additional
investment.50%meanssavingstwiceashighastheadditionalinvestment.
Thus theoverallpicture isremarkablypositive.Mostcountriesshowvalues ofcostper
savedenergybetweenappr.40%and100%ofthelocalgasprice.
UKistheonlyexceptionwithvaluesbetween120%and170%,themajorreasonbeing
thelowgaspricespresentedinFigure2.AllotherUKnumbersinFigure3,Figure4and
Figure5 show values being very close to the German referencecase.Assuming real
energypricesfortheUKsimilartoGermanywouldgettheUKnumbersinFigure12close
toGermanlevel.Infact,thereisreasontoassumethatthelongperiodofUKgasprices
beingsignificantly belowthe levelofcontinentalWesternEuropemight end soon.Few
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yearsagotheUKbecameanetimporterofenergy,i.e.thereisanincreasinginfluenceof
continentalEuropeangaspricesontheUKmarket.
ThusFigure11 notonlyshowsthepricepersavedkWhbutalso thebreak-even-gas-
pricewheretheavoidedenergycostequaltheadditionalinvestmentindeeprenovation.
FortheUKcasethismeansrealgaspricesatastillmoderatelevelaround5-6ct/kWh(as
averageforthenext20years)wouldsufficetomakedeeprenovationlookgood(again:
ignoringthevalueofallpositivesideeffectsinordertofollowtheusualpractice).
Finallyjobeffectsperm2deeprenovationareroughlyestimated,seeFigure13.
0.00000
0.00020
0.00040
0.00060
0.00080
0.00100
0.00120
0.00140
0.00160
AT BE BG CZ DK DE HU NL RO SK SI UK
a
dditionalemployeesperm2deeprenovation
average employees per additional deep renovated m2
Figure13 Roughlyestimatedadditionaljobeffectsbydeeprenovation
TakingGermanyasanexample,withroughly3.5billionm2ofresidentialareaandprovidedthe
renovation rate of 2% recently published for the Germanclimate concept this wouldmean ca.
100,000additionalemployeesbydeeprenovation.MoreprofoundjobeffectanalyseswouldneedforecastsonthedevelopmentofrenovationratesthroughoutEurope.
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6 ConclusionsCurrentlythediscussionstartsontheadequateenergeticlevelforrenovation.Basedonempiricalevidence from theGermanEnergyAgency (DENA) administeredprogramLowEnergyBuilding
StocktheresultspresentedhereindicatethatinEuropedeeprenovationhasthepotentialtobe
thepreferred solution fromecologicandeconomicpointofviewevenwithout subsidies. Further
evidenceshouldbederivedfromrealdeeprenovationprojectsalloverEurope.
Dueto lack ofsuchevidence,weadjustedprices andsavings from theGermanexperienceby
applyingEurostatPriceLevelIndices,mortgagerates,inflationrates,energypricesandheating
degreedays.Thismeansthevaluespresentedhereshouldbeinterpretedasanindicationand
tendencyforwhatshouldbeexpectedwhensuchprojectswouldberealizedinotherEuropean
countries.
Notethattheoftenheardargumentletsusetheavailableannualbudgetformanycheap,shallow
renovationssaving30-50%insteadofusingitforfewer,moreexpensivedeeprenovationssaving
70%-90%mayleadtounwanted,irreversiblelong-termconsequences.Dynamicsimulationsfor
futurebuildingstockscenarioshaveclearlyshown,thatdeeprenovationatreasonablespeedisa
morepromisingstrategytoreachthe2050climatetargetsthanshallowrenovationathighspeed-
shallowmeaningthatcurrentnationalrequirementsforrenovationarejustmet[Ecofys2010].Itis
importanttodoprojectionstill2050,asprojectionstillonly2020maybemisleadingandsuggestan
inadequatestrategy.Astheschematicpaths inFigure14show,atthe interimmilestone2020a
shallowrenovationstrategymightlookbetterthanadeeprenovationstrategy,whilesurprisinglyfailingtoachievethecrucial2050target.Theusuallyperformedshort-termprojectionscontaina
severe risk of getting irreversibly caught in this speed trap of shallow renovation: usually
renovationswith the best investment/saving ratio are done at the start of a nations renovation
program. These are the buildings having the highest absolute saving potential. When these
buildingsare renovated shallow, hugeabsolute savings remain untapped.This losscannotbe
compensatedanymorelateronbybuildingswithlowersavingpotential,-animportantfindingthat
wasconfirmedby[rge-Vorsatz2010].
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Figure14 Thespeedtrapofshallowrenovation
Deep renovation path
2050 climate target
Today 2020 2050
Shallow renovation path
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7 Annex Selected excerpts from the EPBD recast(Preamble)(14) The Commission should lay down a comparative methodology framework for
calculatingcost-optimallevelsofminimumenergyperformancerequirements.
(15) Buildings have an impact on long-term energy consumption. Given the long
renovationcycleforexistingbuildings,new,andexistingbuildingsthataresubjecttomajor
renovation,shouldthereforemeetminimumenergyperformancerequirementsadaptedto
thelocalclimate.
(16)Majorrenovationsofexistingbuildings,regardlessoftheirsize,provideanopportunity
totakecost-effectivemeasurestoenhanceenergyperformance.
(Article2)"ForthepurposeofthisDirective,thefollowingdefinitionsshallapply:
(10)"majorrenovationmeanstherenovationofabuildingwhere:
(a)thetotalcostoftherenovationrelatingtothebuildingenvelopeorthetechnical
buildingsystems ishigher than 25%of thevalueof the building,excluding the
valueofthelanduponwhichthebuildingissituated;
or
(b)morethan25%ofthesurfaceofthebuildingenvelopeundergoesrenovation;
(14) cost-optimal level means the energyperformance levelwhich leads to the lowest
costduringtheestimatedeconomiclifecycle,
(Article4-Settingofminimumenergyperformancerequirements)
1. Member States shall take the necessarymeasures to ensure that minimum energy
performance requirements forbuildingsorbuildingunitsaresetwithaviewtoachieving
cost-optimal levels. A Member State shall not be required to set minimum energy
performance requirements which are not cost-effective over the estimated economic
lifecycle.
(Article7ExistingBuildings)
"MemberStatesshalltakethenecessarymeasurestoensurethatwhenbuildingsundergo
majorrenovation,theenergyperformanceofthebuildingortherenovatedpartthereofis
upgradedinordertomeetminimumenergyperformancerequirementsinsofarasthisis
technically,functionallyandeconomicallyfeasible.Thoserequirementsshallbeappliedto
therenovatedbuildingorbuildingunitasawhole.
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(Article10FinancialBarriersandMarketIncentives)
6.MemberStatesshalltakeaccountofthecost-optimallevelsofenergyperformancewhen
providingincentivesfortheconstructionormajorrenovationofbuildings.
(Annex - III Comparative methodology framework to identify cost-optimal levels of energy
performancerequirementsforbuildingsandbuildingelements)
ThecomparativemethodologyframeworkshallrequireMemberStatesto:
define reference buildings that are characterised by and representative of
their functionality and geographic location, including indoor and outdoor
climate conditions. The reference buildings shall cover residential and non-
residential buildings, both new and existing ones,
define energy efficiency measures to be assessed for the reference buildings.
These may be measures for individual buildings as a whole, for individual
building elements, or for a combination of building elements,
assess the final and primary energy need of the reference buildings and the
reference buildings with the defined energy efficiency measures applied,
calculate the costs (i.e. the net present value) of the energy efficiency
measures (as referred to in the second indent) during the expected economic
lifecycle applied to the reference buildings (as referred to in the first indent)
by applying the comparative methodology framework principles.
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8 References[EP2010]Directive2010/31/EUoftheEuropeanParliamentandoftheCouncilof19May2010ontheenergyperformanceofbuildings(recast).
[Eurostat2008]Eurostat.WidespreadinconstructionpricesacrossEuropein2007.
[Eurostat2010a]Eurostat.Tablenrg_pc_202-Gas-Domesticconsumers-half-yearlyprices-New
methodologyfrom2007onwards,updatefrom28September2010.
[Eurostat2010b]Eurostat.Tableirt_rtl_lhh_a-MFIinterestrates-Loanstohouseholds-Monthly
data,updatefrom28September2010.
[Eurostat2010c]Eurostat.Tableprc_hicp_aind-HICP(2005=100)-AnnualData(averageindex
andrateofchange),updatefrom15September2010.
[Eurostat 2010 d] Eurostat. Table sbs_na_4a_co-Annual detailed enterprise statistics on
construction(NaceRev.1.1F),updatefrom28September2010.
[Ecofys2010]Hermelink,A.,Bettgenhuser,K.,Schler,V.,2010:Basisgutachten
ZumMasterplan Klimaschutz fr Hamburg, Ergnzungsgutachten: Wrmebedarf der Gebude.
Report commissioned by BSU Hamburg. Above all, see page 7.
http://klima.hamburg.de/contentblob/2581046/data/ergaenzungsgutachen.pdf
[Ecofys2009]Hermelink,A.,2009.HowDeeptoGo:RemarksonHowtoFindtheCost-Optimal
Level for Building Renovation. Report commissioned by ECEEE, the European Council for a
EnergyEfficientEconomy.
[IWU 2009] Institut Wohnen und Umwelt. Untersuchung zur weiteren Verschrfung der
energetischen Anforderungen an Wohngebude mit der EnEV 2012, Teil 1 - Kosten
energierelevanterBau- und Anlagenteile inder energetischenModernisierung von Altbauten,3.
Zwischenbericht;commissionedbyBundesinstitutfrBau-,Stadt-undRaumforschung(BBSR)im
BundesamtfrBauwesenundRaumordnung(BBR).
[PHI 2008] Passivhaus Institut. Bewertung energetischer Anforderungen im Lichte steigender
EnergiepreisefrdieEnEVunddieKfW-Frderung,byorderofGermanAgencyofBuildingand
UrbanDevelopment,December2008
[rge-Vorsatz2010]rge-Vorsatz,D.etal.EmploymentImpactsofaLarge-ScaleDeepBuilding
EnergyRetrofitProgramme inHungary.Report prepared for the EuropeanClimate Foundation.
June2010
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NOTES:
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