Emerging TechnologiesEmerging Technologiesand Moore’s Law: and Moore’s Law:
Prospects for the FutureProspects for the FutureProspects for the FutureProspects for the Future
Mike MayberryMike MayberryDirector of Components ResearchDirector of Components Researchpp
VP, Technology VP, Technology and Manufacturing Group and Manufacturing Group Intel CorporationIntel Corporation
March, 2010March, 2010
Economics, Technology, & InnovationEconomics, Technology, & Innovation
““No exponential is forever but we can delay ‘forever’No exponential is forever but we can delay ‘forever’ ” ” ““No exponential is forever … but we can delay ‘forever’No exponential is forever … but we can delay ‘forever’.” .”
Technologies on DeckTechnologies on DeckTechnologies on DeckTechnologies on Deck
Opportunities for Future ProductsOpportunities for Future Products
Visible Horizon and BeyondVisible Horizon and Beyond
22
Moore’s Law Moore’s Law -- 19651965
“Reduced cost is one of the big attractions of integrated electronics, and the cost advantage continues toadvantage continues to increase as the technology evolves toward the production of larger and larger circuit functions on a single semiconductorsingle semiconductor substrate.”Electronics, Volume 38, Number 8, April 19 1965April 19, 1965
Integrated circuits = Parallel fabricationIntegrated circuits = Parallel fabrication
33
Parallel fabrication = Lower cost per functionParallel fabrication = Lower cost per function
Enabling Innovation Enabling Innovation andand Cost ReductionsCost Reductions
90nm300mm
130nm200mm
180nm200mm
250nm200mm
65nm300mm
45nm300mm
Twice the Twice the circuitry in the circuitry in the Same circuitry Same circuitry Option to design Option to design circuitry in the circuitry in the same space same space
(architectural (architectural innovation)innovation)
Same circuitry Same circuitry half the space half the space
(cost reduction)(cost reduction)
Option to design Option to design for optimal for optimal
performance/cost performance/cost OROR ==
Source: Intel
44
Key Economics: Scaling is BetterKey Economics: Scaling is Betterd l t ll i td l t ll i tunder almost all circumstancesunder almost all circumstances
If you can scale then If you can scale then Revenues drive R&DIf you can scale then If you can scale then you shouldyou should–– Compelling products command Compelling products command
Revenues drive R&Dwhich enables further scaling Create
compellingproductsCompelling products command Compelling products command
higher priceshigher prices–– Leading technology delivers Leading technology delivers
lower costslower costs
products
lower costslower costs–– Enables necessary investment Enables necessary investment
in R&Din R&DAffordable
R&D
Businesssize
matters
If you can’t scale then If you can’t scale then hope your competitors hope your competitors
’t ith’t ith Lower cost andcan’t eithercan’t eitherScaling gives lowercost per function
and improved capability
Lower cost andbetter capability
enables newproducts
55
Ability to make it work
Economics, Technology, & InnovationEconomics, Technology, & Innovation
““No exponential is forever but we can delay ‘forever’No exponential is forever but we can delay ‘forever’ ” ” ““No exponential is forever … but we can delay ‘forever’No exponential is forever … but we can delay ‘forever’.” .”
Technologies on DeckTechnologies on DeckTechnologies on DeckTechnologies on Deck
Opportunities for Future ProductsOpportunities for Future Products
Visible Horizon and BeyondVisible Horizon and Beyond
66
“We’re limited by the wavelength of light”“We’re limited by the wavelength of light”
Resolved Rayleighcriteria
UnresolvedFeature >> Wavelength
Feature <<Wavelength
Feature = 0.6 x Wavelength / numerical aperture
77
Lithography Scaling LimitationsFrom Broers [1] IEDM Plenary Session 1980
Breaking through the WallBreaking through the WallBreaking through the WallBreaking through the Wall
1000New lens materials enabled
Optical
New lens materials enabledshorter wavelengths
365nm in mid 80s193 i i (145 ) t dWavelength 193nm immersion (145nm eqv) today
New mask techniques enabled100nm
Feature size
qsmaller features
0π
Alternate10 Conventional
EUV13.5nm
88
AlternatePhase Shift1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
10 ConventionalMask Structure
“We’re hitting the power wall”“We’re hitting the power wall”
R. Schmidt, IBM
We re hitting the power wallWe re hitting the power wall
12
14
Bipolar
CMOSIBM ES9000 Prescott
Jayhawk(dual)
R. Schmidt, IBMty
wat
ts/c
m2)
8
10
Fujitsu VP2000IBM GP
T-Rex
SquadronsMckinley
ensi
tH
eat
Flux(
w
4
6
IBM 3090S
NTT
Fujitsu M-780
IBM RY5
IBM GP
Pulsar
IBM RY7 Pentium 4
er D
eM
odule
H
2
4
Vacuum IBM 360IBM 370 IBM 3033
IBM 3090
CDC Cyber 205IBM 4381
IBM 3081Fujitsu M380
IBM RY6
ApacheMerced
IBM RY4Start of
Water Cooling
Pow
Year of Announcement
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
Vacuum Pentium II(DSIP)
99Source: IBM 2004
Energy per Transistor Continues to DropEnergy per Transistor Continues to Dropgy p pgy p p
101099
10101010
As the number As the number
1010
101000oror
101077
101088of transistors of transistors
goesgoes UP
1010--22
1010--11
1010
r tra
nsis
tor t
rans
isto
101066
1010
1010--44
1010--33
Ene
rgy
peE
nerg
y pe Energy per Energy per
transistor goestransistor goesDOWN
101044
101055
1010--66
1010--55
EE
S WSTS/D t t/I t lS WSTS/D t t/I t l
101033
’70’70 ’80’80 ’90’90 ’00’00
1010--77
1010
Source: WSTS/Dataquest/IntelSource: WSTS/Dataquest/Intel
~ 1 Million Factor Reduction In Energy/Transistor Over 30+ Years~ 1 Million Factor Reduction In Energy/Transistor Over 30+ Years
Energy Consumption is about System OptimizationEnergy Consumption is about System Optimization
5 years5 years
Estimated Annual Energy ConsumptionEstimated Annual Energy Consumption
Yea
r Y
ear
))
1015 1015 938938
um
ed p
er
um
ed p
er
r is
bet
ter)
r is
bet
ter)
GoingGoingM bilM bil
655655
KW
h C
onsu
KW
h C
onsu
(low
er(l
ow
er
229229
MobileMobile
Unmanaged PentiumUnmanaged Pentium®® D D
KK
Unmanaged PentiumUnmanaged Pentium®® D D Unmanaged Core™2 Duo Unmanaged Core™2 Duo Managed Core™2 Duo Processor Managed Core™2 Duo Processor Managed Core™2 Duo Processor Managed Core™2 Duo Processor
3838>26x Reduction>26x Reduction
Unmanaged PentiumUnmanaged Pentium®® D D Processor 945 with CRT displayProcessor 945 with CRT display
Unmanaged PentiumUnmanaged Pentium®® D D Processor 945 with LCD displayProcessor 945 with LCD display
Unmanaged Core™2 Duo Unmanaged Core™2 Duo Processor E6550 with LCD Processor E6550 with LCD
displaydisplay
Managed Core™2 Duo Processor Managed Core™2 Duo Processor E6550 with LCD displayE6550 with LCD display
Managed Core™2 Duo Processor Managed Core™2 Duo Processor T9400 mobile platformT9400 mobile platform
Energy savings comes from combination of Energy savings comes from combination of
1111Performance tests/ratings are provided assuming specific computer systems and/or components and reflect the approximate perfoPerformance tests/ratings are provided assuming specific computer systems and/or components and reflect the approximate performarmance of Intel products nce of Intel products as measured by those tests. Any difference in system hardware or software design or configuration may affect actual performanas measured by those tests. Any difference in system hardware or software design or configuration may affect actual performance.ce. This data may vary from This data may vary from
other material generated for specific marketing requests. other material generated for specific marketing requests.
Energy savings comes from combination of Energy savings comes from combination of transistor scaling and architectural innovationstransistor scaling and architectural innovations
“We’re running out of atoms”“We’re running out of atoms”We re running out of atomsWe re running out of atoms
Polysilicon Gate Electrode
1.2 nm SiO2
3-4 atoms thick
Silicon Substrate
1212
New Materials and New FabricationNew Materials and New FabricationNew Materials and New FabricationNew Materials and New Fabrication
10
100
ge
SiON/Poly 65nm 45nm node
0.1
1
te L
eaka
SiON/Poly 65nm
0 001
0.01
0.1
aliz
ed G
a
0 00001
0.0001
0.001
Nor
ma
HiK+MG 45nm
NMOS PMOS
HiK+MG 45nm
0.00001-1.2 -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
VGS (V)
45 nm HK+MG provides >25x gate leakage reduction
3.0nm High3.0nm High--kk
1313
The Timing of Research Is Not Always The Timing of Research Is Not Always PredictablePredictableBut a Commitment to Research is RequiredBut a Commitment to Research is RequiredBut a Commitment to Research is RequiredBut a Commitment to Research is Required
90’s 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
StrainedStrainedSiliconSilicon
Development ‘01- ’02SiliconSilicon 01 02
Metal Materials Gat
2nd gen ‘051st gen ’03 3rd gen ‘07
HighHigh--k Metalk MetalGateGate
Metal gates
research2001
Materials selected
2000Development
‘05- ’06
e
High-k
Silicon
Demo ‘03 Prod ‘07
Intel 45nm Intel 45nm HighHigh--k Metal Gatek Metal Gategg
Ten Ten Years, Millions Years, Millions of Hoursof HoursDead Ends, Failures Dead Ends, Failures
1414Source: IntelSource: Intel
Unwavering FocusUnwavering Focus
Meanwhile despite these worries Meanwhile despite these worries I ti ti d d t idI ti ti d d t idInnovations continued on product sideInnovations continued on product side
Personal computing replacing shared computersPersonal computing replacing shared computersPersonal computing replacing shared computersPersonal computing replacing shared computersPortable computingPortable computingConnected computers sharing data InternetConnected computers sharing data InternetConnected computers, sharing data, InternetConnected computers, sharing data, InternetWireless connectivityWireless connectivitySmaller form factors, pocket computersSmaller form factors, pocket computersSpecial purpose devicesSpecial purpose devicesp p pp p p……
1515
Economics, Technology, & InnovationEconomics, Technology, & Innovation
““No exponential is forever but we can delay ‘forever’No exponential is forever but we can delay ‘forever’ ” ” ““No exponential is forever … but we can delay ‘forever’No exponential is forever … but we can delay ‘forever’.” .”
Technologies on DeckTechnologies on DeckTechnologies on DeckTechnologies on Deck
Opportunities for Future ProductsOpportunities for Future Products
Visible Horizon and BeyondVisible Horizon and Beyond
1616
Steady Technology Cadence
TECHNOLOGY GENERATION
MANUFACTURING
45nm2007
65nm2005
32nm2009
130nm2001
90nm2003
MANUFACTURING
1717
Product Cadence for Sustained LeadershipProduct Cadence for Sustained Leadership
TICK Pentium® D, Xeon™, Core™ processorRS
RS
TOCK Core 2 processor, Xeon processor2 Y
EA
2 Y
EA 65nm
RS
RS TICK PENRYN Family
TOCK NEHALEM2 Y
EAR
2 Y
EAR
45nm
y
SS TICK WESTMERE
TOCK SANDY BRIDGE2 Y
EARS
2 Y
EARS
32nm
TICK WESTMERE
1818
TOCK SANDY BRIDGE22
All product information and dates are preliminary and subject to change without notice
So What ?
Generational benefits Generational benefits don’t just add,
they multiplythey multiply
1919
Energy Efficiency ImprovementEnergy Efficiency Improvement(S P f F i )(S P f F i )
184 single core servers2005
(Same Performance Footprint)(Same Performance Footprint)
2009 21 Intel® Xeon® 5500 b d 2005 2009 based servers
Annual Energy Costs
92%Up to
8 monthUp to
9X 92%Estimated Reduction
8 monthReturn on Investment
9XServer Reduction
Source: Intel estimates as of Nov 2008. Performance comparison using SPECjbb2005 bops (business operations per second). Results have been estimated based on internal Intel analysis and are provided for informational purposes only. Any difference in system hardware or software design
or configuration may affect actual performance. For detailed calculations, configurations and assumptions refer to the legal information slide in backup.
2020
New Fabrication enables New Product OpportunitiesNew Fabrication enables New Product Opportunities
CoreCoreL3L3CoreCoreL3L3CoreCoreL3L3
Core and Core and UncoreUncorePower Gates are ONPower Gates are ON
Core Power Gates OFFCore Power Gates OFFAnd And UncoreUncore retentionretention
Both Core and Both Core and UncoreUncorePower Gates are OFF Power Gates are OFF
2121
Westmere 6 cores, Infrared imaging showing advanced power management
The Opportunity for Data Center EfficiencyThe Opportunity for Data Center Efficiency
Projected Data Center Energy Use Under Five Scenarios Projected Data Center Energy Use Under Five Scenarios
120120
140140
Historical Historical
2.9% Of Projected 2.9% Of Projected Total U.S. Electricity UseTotal U.S. Electricity Use
100100
120120
/ ye
ar)
/ ye
ar)
TrendsTrendsCurrent Current
Efficiency Efficiency TrendsTrends
Improved Improved
1.5% Of Total US.1.5% Of Total US.Electricity UsageElectricity Usage
6060
8080
ns
(kW
h /
ns
(kW
h / Improved Improved
OperationOperation
B t P tiB t P ti
0.8% Of Total US0.8% Of Total USElectricity UsageElectricity Usage
2020
4040
Bill
ioBill
io Best PracticeBest Practice
StateState--ofof--thethe--ArtArt
20002000 20012001 20022002 20032003 20042004 20052005 20062006 20072007 20082008 20092009 20102010 2011201100
Forecast
2222Source: EPA Report to Congress on Server and Data Center Energy Efficiency; August 2, 2007
Technology Advances Enable Technology Advances Enable BothBoth Bette P od cts and a Wide RangeBette P od cts and a Wide Range
45nm45nm65nm65nm
BothBoth Better Products and a Wider RangeBetter Products and a Wider Range
45nm45nm
+25%
65nm65nm
10X
y Po
wer
8 Core
Sta
nd-b
y
Dual Core
Quad Core
Log
Single Core
2323
Transistor Performance (switching speed)
Technology Advances Enable Technology Advances Enable BothBoth Bette P od cts and a Wide RangeBette P od cts and a Wide Range
45nm45nm L kL k65nm65nm
BothBoth Better Products and a Wider RangeBetter Products and a Wider Range
45nm45nm
+25%
LeakageLeakage
1x1x
65nm65nm
Server
10X
0.1x0.1x
Desktop
L t
Intel® Atom™
00Laptop
0.01x0.01x
Netbook0.001x0.001x
Netbook
2424
Transistor Performance (switching speed)
Extending Transistor Advantage to Extending Transistor Advantage to SoC’sSoC’sF t T i t d B tt P P fF t T i t d B tt P P f
32nm32nm45nm45nm L kL k65nm65nm
Faster Transistors and Better Power PerformanceFaster Transistors and Better Power Performance
32nm32nm45nm45nm LeakageLeakage
1x1x+25%
65nm65nm
0.1x0.1x
10X
10X
+22%
00
0.01x0.01xIA
32nmSoC
0.001x0.001x
2525
Transistor Performance (switching speed)
Implementing a Platform on a ChipImplementing a Platform on a ChipImplementing a Platform on a ChipImplementing a Platform on a Chip
High Speed Memory Interface
IA CoreCache Memory
Memory Interface
eed
rfac
e
Med
ia
nte
rfac
e
SRAM/RFHigh Perf /Low Power
Logic Transistors
Hig
h S
pe
eria
l In
te
asic
I/O
I
Gfx/Security/ Video/AudioInductors Analog/ HV I/O Transistors
Display Interface
Se
Ba /
HandheldsHandheldsEmbeddedEmbeddedCECE
E
B
Precision Linear Capacitors Decap
n+
n-well
n+ n+ n+ n+
Port 1Vbias= VgatePort 2
Vbias= 0 V
Single Ended Varactor
n+
n-well
n+ n+ n+ n+
Port 1Vbias= VgatePort 2
Vbias= 0 V
Single Ended Varactor
n+
n-well
n+ n+ n+ n+
Port 1Vbias= VgatePort 2
Vbias= 0 V
Single Ended Varactor
n+
n-well
n+ n+ n+ n+
Port 1Vbias= VgatePort 2
Vbias= 0 V
Single Ended Varactor
DiodesVertical BJT
E
B
LincroftLincroftJasper ForestJasper ForestSodavilleSodaville
C VaractorsC
2626
Economics, Technology, & InnovationEconomics, Technology, & Innovation
““No exponential is forever but we can delay ‘forever’No exponential is forever but we can delay ‘forever’ ” ” ““No exponential is forever … but we can delay ‘forever’No exponential is forever … but we can delay ‘forever’.” .”
Technologies on DeckTechnologies on DeckTechnologies on DeckTechnologies on Deck
Opportunities for Future ProductsOpportunities for Future Products
Visible Horizon and BeyondVisible Horizon and Beyond
2727
Industry R & D is Increasing Industry R & D is Increasing ––in dollars and as a percent of revenuesin dollars and as a percent of revenues
40
in dollars and as a percent of revenuesin dollars and as a percent of revenues
Industry R & D $ BillionIndustry R & D $ Billion
30
20
10How toHow to
0
How toHow tofabricatefabricate
ProcessProcessSoftwareSoftwareProductProduct
ForecastForecast
2828
OtherOtherHardwareHardwareR & DR & D
Source: IBS, Intel
Possible Product PossibilitiesPossible Product PossibilitiesPossible Product PossibilitiesPossible Product Possibilities
Cloud computingCloud computingCloud computingCloud computing–– Solving grand challenge problemsSolving grand challenge problems–– Enable access anytime anywhereEnable access anytime anywherey yy y
LifeLife--like computinglike computing–– Immersive experiencesImmersive experiencesImmersive experiencesImmersive experiences–– Context awareContext aware
HeterogenousHeterogenous networksnetworksHeterogenousHeterogenous networksnetworks–– Computing in networkComputing in network–– Integration with bio and sensorsIntegration with bio and sensorsIntegration with bio and sensorsIntegration with bio and sensors
2929
Potential Energy Savings Potential Energy Savings Outside Outside of Information and of Information and Communications Communications Technology Technology Communications Communications Technology Technology
7,0007,000
Figure ES-1. Future Electricity Scenarios for the U.S.
6,0006,000Frozen Efficiency Case 1.896
5,0005,000Reference Case
BillionkWh
Bill
ion k
Wh
4,0004,0001.242BillionkWhSemiconductor Enabled Efficiency Scenario
B
20062006 20102010 20142014 20182018 20222022 20262026 203020303,0003,000
3030Source: ACEEE Report Number E094, May 2009 Semiconductor Technologies: The Potential to Revolutionize U.S. Energy Productivity
A truly Smart Grid Requires that Microprocessor t u y S a t G d equ es t at c op ocessointelligence be added throughout the network
3131
High Performance Computing Segment Needs High Performance Computing Segment Needs Decades of Performance IncreasesDecades of Performance IncreasesDecades of Performance IncreasesDecades of Performance Increases
Massive Massive Weather Weather PredictionPrediction
FLOPSFLOPS
Massive Massive computing computing power to power to
solve complex solve complex ZetaZeta
Genomics Genomics ResearchResearch
ExaExa
ppproblemsproblems
Medical Medical ImagingImagingPetaPeta
TeraTera
GigaGiga
3232
19901990 20102010 20302030
ForecastForecast
Source: Intel Investor Meeting 2009
Core Computing Segment Will Need to Core Computing Segment Will Need to Increase Performance to Support New UsagesIncrease Performance to Support New Usages
HighHigh--
Increase Performance to Support New UsagesIncrease Performance to Support New Usages
HighHigh--performance, performance,
lifelife--like like computing computing 3D Interactions3D Interactions
FLOPSFLOPS
computing computing fully fully
integrated integrated with your with your
Computational Computational ModelingModelingSensor Based PresenceSensor Based Presence
Immersive User InterfaceImmersive User Interface
PhotoPhoto--realistic 3D Renderingrealistic 3D Rendering yysurroundingssurroundings
Natural Language ProcessingNatural Language Processing
3D Modeling3D Modeling Smart CarsSmart Cars
HighHigh--definition Audio, definition Audio, Video, AnimationVideo, Animation
RealReal--Time TranslationTime TranslationTeraTera
Video EditingVideo Editing
Touch Touch ScreensScreens
Basic VideoBasic Video
Smart HomesSmart Homes
GigaGiga Basic VideoBasic Video
Photo EditingPhoto Editing
GigaGiga
3333
20002000 20102010 20202020
ForecastForecastSource: Intel Investor Meeting 2009
Perceiving the User to Make Interfaces BetterPerceiving the User to Make Interfaces BetterPerceiving the User to Make Interfaces BetterPerceiving the User to Make Interfaces Better
User Internet
userinteraction
Clienttagged
datainteraction
worldinteraction
World
3434
Small Computing Segment Needs Small Computing Segment Needs More and More Performance At Low PowerMore and More Performance At Low Power
Anytime Anytime Anytime, Anytime, anywhere,anywhere,
personalized,personalized,contextcontext--aware,aware,
RealReal--time, 3Dtime, 3D--VideoVideoAugmented RealityAugmented Reality
FLOPSFLOPS
environmentalenvironmentalcomputingcomputing
Natural Natural Language Language
RealReal--Time Time Language Language TranslationTranslation
GigaGiga
HighHigh--definition Audio, definition Audio, Video & AnimationVideo & Animation
T h T h
Visual Search Visual Search -- Still RecognitionStill Recognition
ProcessingProcessingGigaGiga
VideoVideoMobile TVMobile TV
GamingGaming
Video PresenceVideo Presence
SMSSMS
MMXMMX
CameraCamerass
EE--mailmail
Web Web BrowserBrowser
Touch Touch screensscreens
MegaMega Music & RadioMusic & Radio
gg
VoiceVoice
3535
19951995 20102010 20252025
ForecastForecastSource: Intel Investor Meeting 2009
Speech Interfaces made Better with AudioSpeech Interfaces made Better with Audio--Visual FusionVisual Fusionpp
Speech recognition works, butSpeech recognition works, butfails in noisy environments (mobile)fails in noisy environments (mobile)
Source: Silsbee & Bovik IEEE Speech & Audio
3636
Source: Silsbee & Bovik, IEEE Speech & Audio
Economics, Technology, & InnovationEconomics, Technology, & Innovation
““No exponential is forever but we can delay ‘forever’No exponential is forever but we can delay ‘forever’ ” ” ““No exponential is forever … but we can delay ‘forever’No exponential is forever … but we can delay ‘forever’.” .”
Technologies on DeckTechnologies on DeckTechnologies on DeckTechnologies on Deck
Opportunities for Future ProductsOpportunities for Future Products
Visible Horizon and BeyondVisible Horizon and Beyond
3737
Steady Technology Cadence
TECHNOLOGY GENERATION
MANUFACTURING DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH
65nm2005
45nm2007
32nm2009
22nm2011
15nm2013
11nm2015
8nm2017
Beyond2020
MANUFACTURING DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH
3838
“We’re running out of atoms”45nm nodeTake 2Take 2
TECHNOLOGY GENERATION
45nm node
TECHNOLOGY GENERATION
MANUFACTURING DEVELOPMENT
65nm2005
45nm2007
32nm2009
22nm2011 60 atoms across
made by top-downMANUFACTURING DEVELOPMENT made by top downexcept high-K
xx BByy
xx
Crafting Films with Atomic Layer Deposition
St 1St 1
AA
St 3St 3
AA
xxyy
xx
AA AABB
Step 1Step 1 Step 3Step 3
3939
Step 2Step 2 Step 4Step 4
New Materials: Enabling the Future of New Materials: Enabling the Future of Silicon TechnologySilicon TechnologySilicon TechnologySilicon Technology
4040
IIIIII--V Materials have Higher MobilityV Materials have Higher Mobility
105105
Relative mobility10-1710-17
Relative power-performance
*
104
10
ITY
[cm
2 /Vs]
InGaAs104
10
ITY
[cm
2 /Vs]
InGaAs10-19
10
WID
TH [J
s/m
]
Si MOSFETs10-19
10
WID
TH [J
s/m
]
Si MOSFETs
103
TRO
N M
OB
ILI
30X Improvement103
TRO
N M
OB
ILI
30X Improvement 10-21
RG
YxD
ELA
Y/W
10-21
RG
YxD
ELA
Y/W
10ximprovement
5x1011 1012 1013 2x1013102EL
ECT
SHEET CARRIER DENSITY [cm-2]
Silicon
5x1011 1012 1013 2x1013102EL
ECT
SHEET CARRIER DENSITY [cm-2]
Silicon
10 100 1000 1000010-23
ENER
GATE LENGTH [nm]
InGaAs QWFETs
10 100 1000 1000010-23
ENER
GATE LENGTH [nm]
InGaAs QWFETs
[ ][ ]
R. Chau et al, CSIC (2005)
4141
Fabrication of QWFETFabrication of QWFETwith Highwith High--KK
Fabrication challengesFabrication challengesFabrication challengesFabrication challenges–– Addition of two more unique Addition of two more unique
materials to the stack (7 total)materials to the stack (7 total)–– Molecular Beam Molecular Beam EpitaxyEpitaxy & & Molecular Beam Molecular Beam EpitaxyEpitaxy & &
Atomic Layer Deposition usedAtomic Layer Deposition used–– Atomic deposition precision Atomic deposition precision
needed across five critical layersneeded across five critical layers
4242
in partnership with IQE
Designing Materials with Smooth GrainsDesigning Materials with Smooth Grains
Polymer MG
D
Source: A. De Silva, et al. Adv. Mater. 2008
Molecular glass+ Higher sensitivity at same resolution- Lower mechanical strength (currently)
Polymer Blend+ Mature materials platform
- Larger individual components
4343
Need to engineer materials with components below 1nm
Our limit to visibility goes out ~10 yearsOur limit to visibility goes out ~10 years
15nm2013
11nm2015
8nm2017
Beyond2020
TECHNOLOGY GENERATION45nm2007
32nm2009
22nm2011
MANUFACTURING DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH
Carbon Nanotube~1nm diameter
QW III-V DeviceGraphene
1 atom thick
5nm
Nanowire10 atoms across
Sili l tti i 0 5 h d t i i d d i Sili l tti i 0 5 h d t i i d d i
4444
Silicon lattice is ~ 0.5nm, hard to imagine good devices Silicon lattice is ~ 0.5nm, hard to imagine good devices smaller than 10 lattices across smaller than 10 lattices across –– reached in 2020reached in 2020
Beyond 2020 and possible futuresBeyond 2020 and possible futuresBeyond 2020 and possible futuresBeyond 2020 and possible futuresConventional fabrication architectures continueConventional fabrication architectures continue–– Individual steps continue as 2D layersIndividual steps continue as 2D layers–– More and more layers stacked to give increasing functionMore and more layers stacked to give increasing function
Bilayer graphene structureTh ti ll >10000 l
Graphene layers can couple together and create a quantum condensate
High resolutionTEM of graphene Theoretically >10000x less powerand create a quantum condensateTEM of graphene
4545
Source: M. Gilbert et.al J Comput Electron (2009)
Beyond 2020 and possible futuresBeyond 2020 and possible futuresBeyond 2020 and possible futuresBeyond 2020 and possible futuresConventional fabrication architectures continueConventional fabrication architectures continue–– Individual steps continue as 2D layersIndividual steps continue as 2D layers–– More and more layers stacked to give increasing functionMore and more layers stacked to give increasing function
Increasing use of heterogeneous technologies and Increasing use of heterogeneous technologies and l t bi t h l il t bi t h l inovel ways to combine technologiesnovel ways to combine technologies
–– Electronics fabricated conventionally but combined with bio Electronics fabricated conventionally but combined with bio interface grown bottomsinterface grown bottoms--upup
–– Eliminating, reducing cost of interfacesEliminating, reducing cost of interfaces
4646Source: NRI, SWAN review 2009
Beyond 2020 and possible futuresBeyond 2020 and possible futuresBeyond 2020 and possible futuresBeyond 2020 and possible futuresConventional fabrication architectures continueConventional fabrication architectures continue–– Individual steps continue as 2D layersIndividual steps continue as 2D layers–– More and more layers stacked to give increasing functionMore and more layers stacked to give increasing function
Increasing use of heterogeneous technologies and Increasing use of heterogeneous technologies and l t bi t h l il t bi t h l inovel ways to combine technologiesnovel ways to combine technologies
–– Electronics fabricated conventionally but combined with bio Electronics fabricated conventionally but combined with bio interface grown bottomsinterface grown bottoms--upup
–– Eliminating, reducing cost of interfacesEliminating, reducing cost of interfaces
NonNon--binary or alternate state computationbinary or alternate state computationf b l l ff b l l f–– Same fabrication complexity, more value per functionSame fabrication complexity, more value per function
4747
ConclusionsConclusions
Moore’s Law is not a law of nature, it is an Moore’s Law is not a law of nature, it is an ,,expectation of continued innovationexpectation of continued innovation
We expect to continue through focused research We expect to continue through focused research We expect to continue through focused research, We expect to continue through focused research, rapid development, investment in productionrapid development, investment in production
Scaling research is increasingly about materials Scaling research is increasingly about materials Scaling research is increasingly about materials Scaling research is increasingly about materials research, solving problems brings opportunitiesresearch, solving problems brings opportunities
New product opportunities will arise from New product opportunities will arise from New product opportunities will arise from New product opportunities will arise from continued advances in integration, connectivitycontinued advances in integration, connectivity
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Closing ThoughtClosing ThoughtClosing ThoughtClosing Thought
Thomas Edison: Thomas Edison: Opportunity is missed by Opportunity is missed by Opportunity is missed by Opportunity is missed by most people because it is most people because it is dressed in overalls and dressed in overalls and dressed in overalls and dressed in overalls and
looks like work.looks like work.
4949Source: National Archives and Records Administration
Thank YouThank You
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