Gas Weighted HDD Forecast Through Day 15
Gas Weighted HDD Forecast Through Day 15
Above 30Y Normal
Below 10Y Normal
Total HDD Δ 12hr
318.5
320.9
329.5
324.8
337.2
185.5
323.5
N/A N/A
369.7 N/A
377.0 N/A
Total HDD: All Models
1,816.4
10Y Normal
2,094.9
HDD loss
HDD gain
Δ Overnight
Sample
Energy Weather Morning Report
1-5 Day: 12/21-12/25 Forecast Risks + Discussion
6-10 Day: 12/26-12/30 Forecast Risks + Discussion
1. Warm risks continue early in the period along the East Coast ahead of a strong Arctic Front.
2. Anomalous cold dives into the Great Lakes and East day 3-5 in response to –EPO and –WPO.
3. Expect a demand uptick late in the period as HDD trend above normal, centered in the Midwest and East.
1. Strong cold risks arise this period as cross polar flow dumps into the central and eastern U.S.
2. Expect HDD to remain above normal each day this period thanks to large aerial coverage of cold.
11-15 Day: 12/31-1/4 Forecast Risks + Discussion
1. Cold risks will linger into 2018 thanks to cross polar flow dumping into the U.S.
2. Above normal HDD look to continue with a focus Midwest and East.
3. Pattern by day 15 does indicate the potential for some warmer risks to return week 2 of January.
Time
Period
GFS Ensemble Forecast (Δ day)
Euro EPS Forecast
(Δ day)
10Yr Normal GWHDD
Forecast
Change From
Yesterday
% of Normal GWHDD
Forecast Confidence
EIA Region of Highest Heating
Demand
Wk 1 HDD 128.8 (-0.9) 128.8 (-0.7) 164.9 129.0 -0.5 78.2% High Northeast
Wk 2 HDD 162.0 (-0.2) 163.2 (+0.7) 178.3 169.0 +6.5 94.8% Moderate Northeast
November HDD
-- -- 543 524 -10.0 96.5%
High
Mountain/East
Model of Choice: European EPS
Sample Energy Weather Morning Report
GFS HDD Trends Vs. Normal European HDD Trends Vs. Normal Below 30 Year Normal
Above 30 Year Normal
Total HDD: EPS+GFS
822.4 30Y Normal
697.0
Time Period
GFS Forecast
European Forecast
30Yr Normal GWHDD
Forecast
% of Normal GWHDD
Forecast Confidence
EIA Region of Highest Heating Demand
1-5 105.2 114.3 122.2 109.0 89.2% High Midwest
6-10 154.8 155.8 124.9 155.0 124.1% Moderate Midwest/East
11-14 162.2 130.1 101.3 152.0 150.0% Moderate Midwest/East
14 Day Total 422.2 400.2 348.5 416.0 119.4% Moderate Midwest/East
Sample Energy Weather Morning Report Notes
A negative –WPO in week 2 will aid in colder risks through the turn of the year. However, note the
signal for higher heights near Alaska dissipates in the 11-15 day, potentially telegraphing some mid-January
warmer risks. Stay tuned!
6-10 Day Upper Pattern
WPO Forecast
11-15 Day Upper Pattern